Look at his splits.

Overall - 16-8, 3.90

AL East opponents - 5-8, 4.74

Opponents outside the AL East - 11-1, 2.91

This isn't limited to Pedro by the way. In 38.2 IP against AL East opponents the superhuman one, Mariano Rivera, posted an El Guapo like 3.48 ERA. Against the rest of the league, he notched a typical, touched-by-Zeus-himself 0.44 ERA in 41 IP.

Up until last year, Pedro Martinez and Mariano Rivera dominated like no other starter or reliever. Is it a coincidence that both failed their teams against division rivals in critical moments this year? Is it a coincidence that it took Curt Schilling--an outsider--to stop the Yankees (and remember that it was Jon Leiber who twice nearly no-hit the Sox).

Maybe after four years of seeing each other 19 times a year, they've got each other's numbers.

Maybe Francona knew something when he let Pedro miss his start against the Yankees after the All-Star break.

Unfortunately, division opponents make up 47% of the schedule. And you can't just keep rotating new players in through the rotation every few years for the sake novelty. Or can you?

Anyway, don't be surprised if don't re-sign Pedro and he goes out and posts some Pedro-like numbers. Hell, if we pitched him out of the division all season, he probably would have won the Cy Young.

But on the flip side it's hard to say how he would fair somewhere else when other teams start to see him as much as the AL East does every year.
My point is that all those teams have seen him season after season. While for example the AL West teams may only see him for 2-3 starts a season, and the success is there. Even if he leaves the same outcome may appear, if not right away, eventually.
Edit: Clarity

But it takes a while. And he'll probably only pitch for another 3 years anyway, 4 max.

dag, isn't it also possible that the AL East pitchers face the best hitters in the league?

I mean almost all of the AL East lineups are pretty damn stacked. Even Baltimore, Toronto, and, to a lesser extent, Tampa have pretty decent lineups.

So can't it be a combination of overexposure and good hitters?

I'm not running the numbers for all the pitchers in all the divisions...

well maybe we can see how the AL East offenses rank in comparison?

That's probably readily available, let me see if i can find it

sorted by runs, AL

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
6. Orioles
12. Blue Jays
13. Devil Rays

Seems my intuition may have been wrong. I didn't realize the Blue Jays offense had stuggled that much.

edit: the O's are up there in every category, including leading the AL in hits. Maybe having to face the O's and Yankees, two premier offenses, combined with the extensive extra scouting opportunities led to Pedro having a higher ERA.

A lot of it is how you cut the numbers.

AL East average total runs scored - 824
AL Cent average total runs scored - 810
AL West average total runs scored - 797

That would at least seem to indicate some differences, especially between the east and the west. But across a 162 game season:

AL East average runs scored per game - 5.09
AL Cent average runs scored per game - 5.00
AL West average runs scored per game - 4.82

it's a total of a .27 run per game difference between the high scoring east and the low scoring west.

Having said that, such an analysis doesn't take into account the extreme damage that can be wrought by high powered offenses when they see a team 19 times a year. That is, it may not be an additive relationship, but a multiplicative or exponential relationship between the number of times a good hitting team sees a pitcher and the damage that team can eventually do to that pitcher.

Pete has always seemed to pitch well against some AL West teams. Isn't he undefeated against Anaheim and Seattle?

Is it possible that we're missing another factor in this equation? Could it be that a pitchers decline is highlighted first by the opponents that see him pitch more often and they are better able to exploit a new weakness (and yes teddyKGB it helps that Baltimore and New York have better hitting teams)

Looking at Pedro Stats for 2002 thru 2004

ERA (Innings per start)

AL East
Year ERA GS INNING IP/G
2002 3.10 14 87 6 1/3
2003 2.48 13 83 6 1/3
2004 4.77 17 112 6 2/3

Rest
Year ERA GS INNING IP/G
2002 1.61 16 112 7
2003 2.03 16 102 6 1/3
2004 3.00 16 105 6 2/3

First glance we see a steady increase in his year to year era vs the rest of the league and secondly in 2002 and 2004 we see a dramatic difference in the East v Rest Stats.

As a comparison Curt Schilling

NL West
Year ERA GS INNING IP/G
2002 3.07 14 102 1/3 7 1/3
2003 3.21 14 98 7
AL East
2004 3.79 15 102 2/3 6 2/3

Rest
Year ERA GS INNING IP/G
2002 3.33 21 156 2/3 7 1/3
2003 2.57 10 70 7
2004 2.83 17 124 7 1/3


with the exception of 2002, when Schilling pitched over 50 innings more. Both he and Pedro are effected by frequency of playing. I think if we looked at ERA adjusted for league and park that Schillings numbers would be realitively consistant considering his jump from the NL to the AL.

What does this mean. Well I think it means what most of us already know. That Pedro is not the same pitcher he was. That he is greatly effected by pitch count which is easier to exploit the more you see him. Does it mean we should not sign Pedro?

I guess that is the real question and like so many others who have said it, it will come down to how much for how long? Is a one year deal at 17 mil better for the Red Sox than a 3 year deal at 13 per or a 4 year deal at 12?

If I was Petey, I would be looking for:

1) Warm weather (or dome)
2) An N.L. team with a decent offense.
3) A boatload of money.

I posted this in the free agent thread, but it deserves its own thread and discussion.

This is from AP this evening:



BOSTON - Boston Red Sox star Pedro Martinez filed for free agency on Tuesday, a week after his Game 3 victory helped set up Boston's first World Series title since 1918.

Martinez just completed a five-year, $75 million contract. The Red Sox have exclusive negotiating rights with him until Nov. 11, when other teams can make an offer for the three-time Cy Young winner.

``If they don't get me, it's probably because they didn't try hard enough,'' Martinez said after what could be his final start in a Red Sox uniform. ``My heart is with Boston.''

``I hope I get another chance to come back with this team, but if I don't, I understand the business part of it,'' Martinez said. ``I just hope that many other people understand that I wasn't the one that wanted to leave. I'm only doing what I have to do.''

If he does leave, he would do so as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history - and one of its most colorful.

After beating the Yankees early in the 2002 season, he said, ``Wake up the damn Bambino. Maybe I'll drill him.'' But this year the losses to the New York piled up and he seemed more resigned.

``What can I say - just tip my hat and call the Yankees my daddy,'' Martinez said after a Sept. 24 loss. ``I can't find a way to beat them at this point. ... I wish they would disappear and not come back.''

Martinez won four ERA titles from 1999-2003 before shoulder problems turned him into a seven-inning pitcher. Even then he could be unhittable at times - he allowed just three hits in seven scoreless and retired his final 14 batters in a 4-1 victory over St. Louis that set up Boston's Series sweep.

``It's been a great ride,'' Martinez said after his World Series start. ``I hope everybody enjoyed it as much as I did. Even with the struggles that I've had up and down during the season, I really enjoyed it. I enjoyed every moment.''

Red Sox officials could not be reached for comment.

If I'm not mistaken, Barry Bonds also filed for free agency a few years ago, yet San Francisco was able to keep him. I feel the same will happen with Pedro. I still believe that he will be back in a Red Sox uniform. The management here knows that pitching wins, and Pedro is still elite. They will retain him.

Pedro was the last to file for free agency out of our free agents, or at least I'm pretty sure that is the case.

I'm not going to lie but when I heard that the other players filed for free agency and Pedro didn't it made me feel like it had something to do with current negotiations. I know this is something all players are going to do, I just thought that maybe him waiting to file meant something.

I guess it shows that it means nothing. I guess all it means is that the clock is ticking. November 11th is the end of the exclusive window for our free agents. I think that will be a very important day all across MLB. I think this period is the most crucial for Pedro out of all free agents, because I feel once he hits the market the price will end up too high.

The only concern I see with Pedro is, can he beat the Yankees anymore? He pitched very well against St. Louis but was only mediocre against the Yankees, and in the last few regular season starts against them he was bombed, if I'm not mistaken. I'm not saying don't re-sign him, it's just that the Sox are bound to run into the Yankees again next year, and the Yankees seem to be really confident and cocksure against him.

Should the Yankees throw Rivera out against the Red Sox anymore? Of the 2 losses he had during the regular season, BOTH were to the Red Sox, and we alone have handed him at least a third of his blown saves in the last 2-3 years. Same thing. WE look awfully confident against Gordon/Rivera, don't we?

Pedro's numbers against Baltimore are even worse. You're drinking the Kool-aid; Pedro pitched a shut-out against the Yankees back in April (IN YANKEE STADIUM). He would've won that last start that September Friday if Francona had figured out what the other 35,000 people in Fenway knew - that was "take him out!" before the 8th inning" Then he would've only given up 3 ERs. 7 full innings and 102 pitches would've been a great effort.

Yeah, but he was only average against the Yankees in the playoffs, and that's when it counts. Doesn't matter how many games you win in the regular season, it's how you do in the playoffs...the Cardinals exemplified that...

I'm certainly not saying he's washed up, or the Sox should get rid of him...just to keep that in the back of your mind.

So, to ask the question once again, should the Yankees get rid of Mariano Rivera since he played a large part in blowing a couple of the playoff games against the Sox when it counted most?

Of course not. You're being facetious. You're also using one or two playoff starts vs. the Yankees as evidence, while ignoring Pedro's gem he pitched in the WS, and his decent start vs. Anaheim.

In one of those starts against the Yankees in the playoffs, Pedro gave up three runs. Two of the runs were the direct result of a ball that was hit about 315 feet by a retread named John Olerud that would have been an out in most other ballparks (including Fenway). I call that pretty damned good. If the team could have hit, they'd have won that game.

Gammons made an interesting point in his Globe chat yesterday that Pedro was successful against the Cards because he pitched to their weaknesses instead of his strengths. It does seem that he tries to challenge the MFY's too much and they get a lot of 2 strike hits off of him.

Pedro filing helps us, I think.

Either his testing the market reveals just how much skepticism there is about his health, age, etc. and it makes it more likley that he accepts the 12.5-13.5m/2 yrs that we will likely offer, or someone (read MFYs), operating in panic mode, will pay him 17m/4 yrs rendering themselves even more financially inflexible down the road than they already are.

Either outcome is okay by me. I'd rather he sign with us than with the EE, of course, but I sure could enjoy watching SiaS go all Al Davis, too.

Edit: spelling

Dag, I completely agree with you. When you see that cutter from Rivera so often then you learn how to hit it. That's what makes Rivera so good. He comes in and leaves. Nobody really gets to face him long and you don't know how to hit him. But seeing him so many times makes you know what he's going to do. Same thing for Pedro. The Yankees and the rest of the AL East see him pitch WAY too much. That's why he dominated St. Louis. You can't say it's because of the great offense either. St. Louis as Edmonds, Rolen, Pujols, Renteria. They didn't do anything off of Pedro. I forgot Larry Walker too.

What really saves Pedro is that you have to jump on him early in the count but you also have to run his pitch count up. They contradict each other and he pitches great. You either run his pitch count up and get him out or you swing early and hope you can get some runs and get him out.

Column on Pedro in yesterday's Hoy, from Santo Domingo

Franklin Mirabal is a columnist and sportswriter who covers Pedro for the daily "Hoy". I think he may know Pedro personally, and has a good relationship with him.

I've provided a loose translation of the article, not word for word, but I've got the sense of it.

SPORTS IMPACT The great dilemma of Pedro Martínez



BY FRANKLIN MIRABAL


Pedro Martínez arrived in the country on Saturday and decided to take some days to reflect on his future in the Major Leagues.

He faces some dilemma on what is more agreeable to his career and perhaps does want not to speak so as not to affect some type of negotiation.

I have not spoken with him, but I will ponder his options and I will expose what I think that he finally will do. And that will be known in two weeks.

1- Probably, to remain in Boston, Martínez should accept a quantity of money and years under what he expected.

If Pedro accepts, it would permit the team to retain to Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek, among others, who will also be free agents.

2- I doubt that he will sign with the Yankees. The motive? Pedro has had differences with many players of that team and the environment would not be good.

Besides this are the clashes with the fans, the press and the own owner of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner.

3- Neither do I believe that would be prudent for him to sign with another team in the American League, even though that team offers him double money.

Why? Simple, would have double emotional problem. The Yankees will always be his "enemy", and then, Boston would also hate him.

Roger Clemens was a glory in Boston and when he went to Toronto and the Yankees, the fans of the Red Sox did not want to see it.

4- I believe that Pedro needs tranquility to finish his career well. And the best for that is to return to the National League.

I myself listened to Pedro say that the fan of San Louis were more decent, that they let him pitch in peace, and he will not obtain that in the American League.

The National League is less strong because there is no designated hitter and the pitchers must bat. I believe that Atlanta would be an ideal place.

5- Martínez has fame, money, three Cy Youngs, a championship ring, and now simply would need peace to conclude his great career.

As I know that Pedro would not sign for "cheles" (some sort of idiom that I cannot translate) with Boston, I see him returning to the National League.

That would happen unless the Red Sox finally offer him the contract that really he wants. Keep this column!

If Pedro can't sign with us then I hope he takes the easy route and goes to the NL. There is no doubt in my mind that the NL is much more pitcher friendly considering that they have to face the pitcher. I know he will do great no matter where he goes, but going to the NL would be even better stat wise (in my opinion). It wouldn't be just for him but any pitcher.

As long as he is not a Yankee, then I'm happy. I do think if he is gone we will end up missing him a real lot. I also think that if he is gone Bob Lobel will say what he usually does: "why can't we get players like that?" I have a ton of confidence in Pedro and I'd bet on it that his numbers next year are better than this years (ERA).

after 7 years of insanity in Boston, I would just think it would be really boring for him to move to the NL...

Thanks for the translation, Anni. I think "cheles" is a Dominican penny.

Pedro back in the NL? This theory aligns somewhat with the thread talking about how he is is more effective against hitters that haven't seen him.

Great article Anni, thanks for the translation (though I feel slightly cheated at not being able to read the babelfish version of the "Red Averages")

I agree with the point being made that the more often you see a great pitcher, the better you will do against him. I agree that this affects Pedro when he pitches against the Yanks, and Rivera when he pitches against the Sox.

Apart from that, does anyone else think that 19 games with division foes is just too much? I split a season ticket package with three other guys at Yankee Stadium, so I get about 20 games a season. I give many of my games away, since I'm old now and have kids, and spend more time watching Baby Einstein than baseball these days. But anyway it seems like everytime I turn around, I'm holding a pair of Tampa Bay tickets. I know it's not true, but it seems that every other series, we're playing Tampa Bay.

P.S. -- My son toward the end of last season was actually sitting down with me and watching the Yankees. I guess he learned that if he said he'd sit down and watch the game with me, I'd be so happy that I wouldn't make him go to bed. His first words every morning were: "Yankees win?"

I would agree that familiarity does bring success. So wouldn't that mean that the Sox are better off reinvesting that money in another picher? After all if you can't beat the Yankees for what ever reason that's not a good person to place your millions in, and I'm for resiging Pedro. But I'm not for overpaying in money or years.

From the November 6 Globe:


Bob Hohler - Sox make pitch to Martinez; Package offered is comparable to Schilling's deal


"...The Sox have offered Martinez a financial package similar to the multiyear contract Schilling signed last November to join Martinez as one of the most dominant 1-2 punches in the game. In their preliminary proposal, the Sox offered Martinez a two-year, $25.5 million contract with a $13 million option for 2007 and $2 million in potential performance bonuses, according to sources who are familiar with the terms and are aligned with neither side.

The major difference between the contract Schilling signed and the team's offer to Martinez is the criteria for exercising the option for 2007 and achieving the $2 million in bonuses. Schilling cashed in on a one-of-a-kind provision that allowed him to trigger his 2007 option and collect the $2 million by helping the Sox win the World Series. Since Major League Baseball banned such clauses after mistakenly approving Schilling's, the Sox substituted a provision that would link Martinez's option year and bonus money to the number of innings he pitches and how he finishes in races for the Cy Young Award. ..."





The story notes that Pedro will probably still explore the waters, to see what else he might be offered. If the information in Hohler's story is correct, though, this is a good deal and I hope Pedro considers it, and that his comments about wanting to stay in Boston were sincere.

Anni

i think that's a fair offer, and i think it will be very competitive with what other teams offer. He should take it.

Sounds like a fairly good deal to me too. Do we know whether the $13 milllion option for 2007 would be triggered by Pedro, or whether it would have to be picked up by the team? I don't think Pedro would be too excited by this offer if it is a team option, but if it's his option, I think he would be receptive to it (even though the article says that he has left it on the table for now).

Sounds like a fair offer to me especially if the option kicks in at around 180 innings for 2005 and 2006.

looks like the option will be trigered by how he pitches not by iether side. good idea he will have no one to blame but himself if he cant get the option year to kick in.

I think that the deal offered is a very good starting point. I truly think that the dollar amount won't be the problem but it will be the number of guaranteed years. Pedro keeps on saying he wants to retire young, so it is possible this could be his last contract he is going for. So I would think that he would care more about guaranteed years.

It's really a great place to start, much better in my opinion than the 3 year $21 million deal the Marlins offered Pavano.

I definately think it's a fair deal, but you have to keep in mind that teams bidding for him will most likely approach a 3 year deal and even a 3 year with an option.

If years are as important to Pedro as many of us think, I hope the Sox are willing to consider upping to 3 years $39 million, making it extremely difficult for Pedro to turn down. Being 5 years younger than Schilling can easily allow for the argument that his deal be 3 years at $500K more annually. I hope the Sox feel that's their ceiling as well. It is reasonable, respectful and fair. It would get the job done, this offer won't, but leaves room for optimism.

I like this deal and I hope they can work on it so he can stay, but if he rejects this deal then it just shows he really didnt want to stay in Boston. This is more than fair. I hope he takes it and I hope they work out but who knows right now

What bout Tek!?!

This sounds right. I think Pedro has left the deal on the table for now hoping that after recieving bids from other teams, he can get get the Red Sox to up their offer to 3 years guaranteed, and perhaps an option for a fourth year. Having an incentive based third year option (as the current offer does) certainly sounds like a good idea, but doubt Pedro would sign for just 2 years guaranteed without entertaining offers from the rest of the league.

I think that the deal offered is a very good starting point. I truly think that the dollar amount won't be the problem but it will be the number of guaranteed years. Pedro keeps on saying he wants to retire young, so it is possible this could be his last contract he is going for. So I would think that he would care more about guaranteed years.[QUOTE]

I think that Sox Mgt. feels they are in a win win situation here. They've offered him as much as Schill (a guy who outpitched him this year). So from a public perception standpoint you could argue that to be a more than fair offer. From their prospective I'd bet that they want to sign Pedro but feel they could also get at least comparitively equal value (production to money) if Pedro turns this offer down.

My feeling is that there won't be much negotiation here. The Sox won't overpay for Pedro, and have offered him a fair contract. While someone may offer him more than the Sox that doesn't mean he's worth it and inturn that the Sox must match.

Hopfully he accepts, but I doubt he will. My feeling is he goes back to the NL, but in a more amicable way than Nomar's departure and the Sox try for two of the following Pavano/Radke/trade for Hudson or other pitcher.

What do you guys expect from the Yankees? I'm thinking something like 3/45 with a 4th at around $15, making 4/60. Boston will not match that. And Pedro could be wearing stripes.

I do think this offer is a little similar to Schill's deal, but Schill is older than Pedro and still got that extra guaranteed year. I think Pedro has every right to hold out to see if the Sox can push their offer up to resemble that (in terms of the extra guaranteed year).

Schilling's contract: (at age 37?)
2004 - 12M
2005 - 12.5M originally, but now 14.5 since they won the World Series
2006 - 13M
2007 - Option year kicked in from World Series win, 13M


Proposed Pedro contract: (at 33 years old)
2005 - 12.75M
2006 - 12.75M
2007 - Option year 13M

bosox girl,

Yeah, but you are neglecting the 17.5 million that Pedro got in 2004. I think the deal is fair to both sides and respects Pedro's abilities by making it comprable to Schillings. We don't know if this years ERA and HRA are an aberration or the new Pedro.

Both sides are taking risks with this contract, so I view it a fair one. If Pedro doesn't take it the Sox shouldn't go any more.

His best option, as others have suggested are to go to the NL, although Atlanta is most likely out for payroll reasons. I could see the Dodgers or the Cards picking him up though, or even the Mets.

I'm not neglecting it, because that was part of his last contract. Actually, it was an option year that they picked up. On this very board I posted an article where Pedro was willing to accept an offer that was 4 Million less than 17.5M for a 3 year guaranteed deal. So that would mean he would have gotten 13.5 for '04, 13.5 for '05 and 13.5 for '06. The Sox were the ones who did not want to do that and so they took the 17.5M option instead. I won't even get into the fact that they did accept that offer (option) after Pedro led the league in ERA yet again - so I don't think it was a bad deal.

This is what we have paid him over the years:

1998: $7.0M (+$3.0M signing bonus)
1999: $10.5M
2000: $11.0M
2001: $12.5M
2002: $13.5M
2003: $15.0M
2004: $17.5M [option exercised 4/7/03]

So for 7 years we had him for $90M and roughly 12.9M average annual salary. Not to forget he is a pretty darn great pitcher and deserved every single penny he got from us. During this time he pitched himself into the hall of fame.

So I don't understand why the 17.5 needs to be mentioned, when it was part of his last contract. Pedro is going to get the guaranteed years from someone. I think this offer was a great starting point, but I think the years is what he will go for (or at least 1 year extra guaranteed).

1) First Schill didn't "get" an extra guaranteed year, he earned it. 07 was an option year that automatically kicked in for winning the WS. So Schill signed a similar 2/25.5 with an option for 07. You may be confusing that issue in that Schill had an existing contract for 04, and that was not part of the newly negotiated contract he signed with the Sox.

2) Age really doesn't have anything to do with it. You're either productive or your not. Schill outpitched Pedro this year, and is generally considered a better health risk than Pedro. So the only thing that Pedro has over Schill is age. That doesn't make a 2 year with an opiton for a 3rd year a bad deal. It's not like he's 26, he's 33 with a questionable shoulder that a lot of the time needs an extra day off. To be honest I'd take my chances with Schilling (even though he's older)outperforming Pedro the next couple of years. Even if Pedro goes to the National League.

I'm not against Pedro, in fact I hope he signs this contract. However I doubt he will and for some of the things that I posted above, I doubt the Sox increase their offer by much if at all. In fact I'd bet a lot of money there is no way the Sox give him a gaurenteed 3rd year and that will be the main issue.

Part of me even thinks that the Sox are hoping HE decides not to sign the contract so they can part company amicably, and spend their money elsewhere. Even though we love him, I get the feeling that while his employers value his talent (even if not as much as they used to) they may be tiring of his act (which seems a little bit on the selfish side). And now that they are planning with a WS under their belt they will not stray from what they feel is the right way to build this team for next year and future years.

Chud - My mistake, I thought Schill came to a new deal entirely (for '04 through '07).

Next, of course Schilling pitched better than Pedro this year. I would say this is the first time Schilling has ever pitched better than Pedro. Who would be more likely to do better in 2005?

Pedro is a health risk - well I guess you are right. Although he did pitch the most innings since when '98? He didn't have one trip on the DL this year and well he looked healthy to me. Aren't they allowed to have physicals before a new deal would be signed? Well if they are that concerned with his health then they should do that.

I think Pedro is worth 3 years guaranteed. I would not give him 4 years guaranteed - because that is definitely pushing it. I don't think 3 years guaranteed will screw this team, because I personally feel that he is still going to be great for the next 3 years.

Will he get injured? I guess it is a possibility but anything can happen with any of these guys. It is a risk and if they feel he is not worth that risk then they obviously shouldn't give him that type of an offer. Theo is going to do whatever he wants and I trust Theo to make the right move. If Pedro goes then I'll be absolutely fine because my favorite player helped my favorite team get a ring.

BSG,

I included 2004 with Pedro because you included 2004 with Schilling. In your example if one did not look closely they would of assumed Schill got more from the Red Sox than Pedro did, which he obviously didn't and won't from the figures you show from 2004-2007.

My bad - for some odd reason I thought we negotiated an entirely new deal with Schill that covered him for 2004. So I was very wrong. So Schill's 2004 numbers don't mean anything really because it was from his old deal with the Dbacks, just like Pedro's '04 price doesn't mean much as well. So when you look at it that way then the deals are extremely similar both with the amount of money and years.

I'm very pleased that they made this offer to Pedro - that makes me happy. I sadly don't see him taking it though - as I think he will want the 3 years guaranteed. Theo knows best and doesn't give a damn about fan reaction so that is why I trust him to make the right decision. I never could be the GM!

I don't see this contract cutting it for Pedro. Obviously you need to start some where and I think the Sox did the right thing. However it's going to take atleast 3 years guaranteed. IMO it's going to take atleast 13.5 mil a year. I think Pedro would be happy with something like:

'05: 13.5
'06: 13.5
'07: 15.0
'08: 15.0 (a stat based option like if he wins the Cy Young or pitches 600 or 700 innings over the last three years)

(Can you do the Cy Young option or is that not allowed now by MLB?)

That contract would be 3 years @ 42 mil with an option year for another 15 mil. Reasonable? I think so.

Theo and the Trio love those short term deals don't they....

short term deals make sense in a declining market and vice versa.