Shawn, if you were negotiating your future for the next 4-5 years would you jump at the first offer?...I hardly think that 4/$60m rejection accrately describes Nomars feelings about boston...who's to say he wouldn't have accepted that deal later on, or something close to it...Sox pulled it and offered 4/$48 after the season...it's all negotiating ploys..

I just don't undserstand why the union can't make an exception. This is a very unusual deal. I understand where they are coming from but with all rules there are exceptions which need to be considered. The Union is just taking a hard stance and not "listening" to what is going on. They just need to spin it right. Make a board to approve an exception on this deal.

Looks like a nice move by the Red Sox to me. They've essentially taken their ball and gone home, leaving it in Texas' hands to bring this deal back to life, as it should be. Hicks for some reason began thinking that he was negotiating from a position of power as the media hype escalated and so he started making some outrageous demands (money + pitcher + Manny for example). Now the Sox have pull out, leaving him with the realization that he can't afford to keep ARod if he ever wants his team to climb out of the cellar.

Give it a few days, the rumors will be hotter than ever but this time the Sox will be at the controls, not Hicks or Orza. Henry just needed to remind everyone that he's the guy with the money and the great team as is, and that he doesn't need this deal like Hicks, the MLBPA, or MLB in general does.

I know I would jump at the 1st offer if it was what it should be. It's not a bad thing to take the 1st offer in every case. He just wanted more and part of the problem with not taking the 1st offer is what is happening now.

Not sure this view is shared by everybody speaking for the Red Sox.
Clearly, the Ranger management wants this deal to go.
It's a matter of Hicks facing reality about his money demands--
He isn't going to get someone else to pay Manny's salary.
But he could get some pitching help along with Manny.

I agree with that good NY Post article.
At this point, the deal has to go--or it will be a fiasco for MLB.

I'm not sold on Lucchino--he's the guy who hired Little.

Champ, I don't know al that is going on, but according to PG this morning the sox were proposing taking $28-30 mil off the total value of the deal thats potentially 15% of the total value, that is not a precedent they want to set I'm sure. It wouldn't effect AROD any, but unions don't just give in to these sort of things...BTW I really think LLucky putting AROD against the union was a cheesy thing to do, I think thats why we got AROD's "spirit of cooperation" remarks yesterday
RE nomar: maybe he would have but his agent told him to relax, that they could get more years or something, just speculating..

[B]Are you freakin kidding? There is absolutely no way that would be the way to go about it! Just look at the answer A-Rod gave in response to the Unions decision. Whatever their decision I will abide by it because it is good for baseball and it's players. B.S.!!!!! What would be good for the players A-Rod would be for you cut the crap and see that your asronomical contract is adversely affecting the league as a whole. Never mind the fact that ANY team that takes your contract will have to do so by making all the players on that roster pay for it. Screw the UNION. Let's protect an albatross contract at the expense of every other player in the Union. How much freakin money do you think do you think it takes to run a teams payroll. There are many others behind the scenes that need to be paid also as part of the supporting cast. A-Rod leave the Union, sign with Sox and show us how much you really want to play in Boston!!

Here's why WEEI's Dale and Neumy Show sucks:
This morning, during the first 24 minutes of their show, they talked about:
The Bruins.
Which Patriots coaches will get head coaching job interviews.
Chris Berman's shirt.
The "plucky" New York Jets.
Michael Strahan's mouth.

Not a WORD about the biggest story of the week until minute 25.

I hope they lost EVERY listener during that time span.

I think the trade rumors will surge back to life by Sunday.

We are in the position of power, and we need to remember that.

Wow, I think you are REALLY off base on just about everything here.

1 - The players association does NOT try to keep everyone on the same page. Hence, Manny makes $20 million and Ortiz makes about 1/15th of that. The players association has NO interest in trying to keep everyone on the same page.

2 - You say that forcing A-Rod to play somewhere where he no longer wants too is "for the good of every member". I would like you to expound on that, if you could, as I have no idea how taking away an individual players rights helps other players. Almost without exception, in other unions, more options for members is regarded as a benefit, not a give-back.

3 - Unions give in to ownership demands ALL THE TIME. It is called negotiation. Airline unions are always giving in to management of airlines in financial trouble for the long term benefit of its members. You say "it doesn't work like that", but it works like that often.

These guys Tom JH, Theo play great poker. We didn't even hear about the Chicago aspect until late late in this process. Luch is a hard ass negociator. We have nothing to lose. Texas is the one over the barrel. I think they will cave on this one. We don't have to negiciate with A-rod now anyways. The union has given the acceptable level. We just need tex to help fill in the gap by coming off the $ demand. This deal will happen. too much has been invested by all.

Do you really need to hear the same speculation over and over again? I'm sure every sports radio show from here to Timbuktu will break in with any real breaking news, until then, enough speculation

Hytem, the Little hire was the right move at the right time...we were coming off the disastrous Kerrigan era and the clubhouse needed mending. Grady did that. Grady failed to make the right call in game seven against the MFY and yes he failed to use statistical data that is crucial. For that, Grady paid the price as he should. LL has a solid rep in baseball and I admire the way he has run this team. Remember he's also the guy that hired Theo.

Is anyone else sick of hearing Gasbag (and others) say, "I still believe that this deal may get done. Both sides have just spent too much time on this to turn around now."

This is honestly one of the most ridiculous statements that I've heard regarding this trade. I actaully heard him saying it again this morning on the way into work.

One of the first things that perspective MBAs are taught in any business program is that one should never factor resources that have already been dedicated to a project and cannot be recouped into your decision process. In other words, these costs or expenses are "sunk" costs. They are gone forever and either doing the project, or not doing the project will never get them back.

A good example of this is phamaceutical companies that spend millions upon millions in the R&D process. Halfway through developing a new drug, they may well arrive at the conclusion that the drug has had mixed results and could never be profitable for the company, and would in fact lose money for the shareholders. Do you think that the pharmaceutical executives would say, "Well we've already spent millions on this project...let's throw some good money after bad." Of course not, its just insanely stupid business.

The same applies to this Trade. Management is not going to push this through just because they've spent time, effort, money, and Nomar/Manny's feelings on this so far. They are better businessmen than that. They will do the trade if it is good for the organization, period.

So zip it, Gasbag!

The only thing missing from this saga so far is Georgie Porgie of the Evil Rmpire fame to jump in and suggest that he is interested- Jeter at ss or not , or hint that Jeter will move. And do not apply logic here: he is crazy enough to jump in, just to drive Larry and the Sox crazy.

Lucchino's comments about the deal being over are a smokescreen. He's calling there bluff and i think he's right. Hicks is now behind the 8 ball as the sox have made it clear they are willing to walk away. Hicks and Hart now say that they're still working on it and it isn't dead, they obviously need this trade more and were exposed after lucchino called the trade dead.

rrsafety, You may be right and I may be WAY off base. but:
#1 they try to keep everyone on the same page as far as toeing the "company" line. The union mentality of strength in numbers. And on the same page as far as making the most money they can. Obviously there will be monitary differences between diif. players..

#2 The union is not taking away any players rights. AROD can go anywhere they trade him. They are saying "You cannot negotiate down the value of the contract. (actually they aren't even saying that per Gammons, they are saying you can't negotiate down the ammount you are proposing, as they countered w/$12 mil defered

#3 As you mentioned it's called negotiations and ussually requires BOTH sides to give something. From what I'm hearing (and there is no sure bet it is what is actually happening) the Union countered and the Sox said thanks but no thanks...maybe there is some middle ground, but BSelig seems to have ended that last night with his almighty "deadline"

while they are great businessmen, the rules for baseball are not the general rules you learn in an MBA course, so don't try to apply them here.

The reason why many people say that is that this ISNT like when an employee hears he might be replaced, and then is asked to extend his contract when the person trying to be brought in declines, because in that fact pattern, the guy who was going to be fired is HAPPY to have retained his job, and while he may harbor some resentment towards management, his financial stability relies on getting a paycheck every week, so there are no problems.

Baseball is a high stakes end-game where the power is shifted to the employees. People say it has to happen because of how far it has gone because they are seeing the impossibility of Nomar being OK in Boston next year. That has been done enough, i'm not going to get into reasons, but suffice it to say that because the power is really in Nomar's hands, or at the very least this is not a typical business situation, don't try to apply simple MBA rules to a much more complex and radically different situation.

You guys really need to chill out or you're gonna give yourselves ulcers. Firstly, it's the OFF SEASON!!! Yeah, it's exciting to get A-Rod, but if this is more exciting to you than watching the actual games or following the team during the season, than there's something wrong.

Secondly, this trade will happen. Guaranteed. I've been following sports a long time, and if there's one thing I've learned, it's that where there's smoke there's fire. It is an impossibility that Alex Rodriguez will be able to play in Texas next year. There is only one team he can be traded to. That team has a malcontent they're dying to get rid of.

Do the math, people.

Just because the Player's Union got cheap does not mean the trade is dead. People like Gasbag and Stark need to shut the @%@ up unless they have something real to say.

Expect this deal done by the end of the weekend with Texas lowering the amount they asked the Sox for, and the Sox raising the restructuring to a level the union approves. Done deal.

Lets hope Magglio is still coming to Boston. He's as good as Manny right now, easy.

Boy, they deserve to!

Here in NY, on WFAN, the first 15 minutes of the first sports show of the day (The Mac and Sid Show) after IMUS was spent on the ARod trade, of course. Both hosts felt like it would eventually happen because both teams are too far down the road and everyone wants it to happen.

For this trade to happen, the Sox need Hicks to cave on his demands. They figured that the best way to do that at this point was to walk away from the table, call the trade dead and start negotiating with Nomar's agent. The Sox have to go about their business while they wait for Hicks to realize that he needs the deal more than they do (and he does) and picks up that phone and says "OK, you win. Let's do it."

Interesting twist to the ARod thing talked about on the FAN this morning. Apparently, the split between ARod and Showalter is an outright war. ARod has openly challenged Buck's management of the team by calling the game into the catcher from shortstop!!! In retaliation, Buck fired a clubhouse attendant who was particularly close to ARod. Can you imagine?

They also said that Hicks' position is that ARod will bring in untold amounts of loot to the Sox by being the "face" of the Sox (unlike the much more reticent Nomar and Manny), and the money the Sox could make marketing ARod would dwarf the $5 million extra he wants every year to pay off Manny's contract. The biggest issue that the Sox management have with Nomar: he refused to do a couple of PR appearances for them.

This is about PR, marketing and money even more than its about baseball. Transcendent, to be sure.

PS: The hosts also said that the Player's Association was perfectly correct to take their stance on the matter, that they cannot simply allow a precedence to take place where they allow any contract to be renegotiated downwards. That opens the door to more of the same. If an owner takes them to court, he can say "well, you allowed it in the ARod deal" and they'd be sunk. Letting this happen now, could cost the players hundreds of millions in the future. It's up to the teams to figure this out.

We looked at excerpts of the language in the CBA a few dozen pages back I think last week - It's very vague and appears the MLBPA is taking a very liberal interpretation of their assumed authority here - Maybe whoever posted it then can bring it back for those that are new -
My reading of it was that the MLBPA could very well lose a challenge of their percieved authority to veto a deal like this
The problem is that it might be so time consuming that it would end up not helping the owners with this particular case - Also, since Arod has a no trade clause, he could still refuse to budge in defense of the MLBPA regardless of the outcome of such a challenge

If Nomar is still a member of the Sox on Opening Day (which I'm doubtful about), and he doesn't have a contract extension, this is his walk year. I don't think he would do anything but play as hard as he always has, but he would have extra motivation to perform. How else is he going to get some team to give him that $15-17mil+ per year contract? Kevin Millar is not going to be signing Nomie's paychecks in 2004 or 2005.

Didn't catch who posted this originally. But Bravo. I concur 100%.
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I wouldn't expect any movement for a while on this. But it's actively being worked on by both teams.

Also, if you click on that Schilling interview, please save the file to your desktop (Save target as: desktop). My VPS server is close to maxing out and site shuts down automatically. I don't want to be the third site go dark to the public this week

MANY THANKS to TrojanRabbit for recording the interview. Keep them coming please, will save me thousands of hours of transcribing, and help my carpel tunnel.

[quote=teddykgb,Dec 19 2003, 10:47 AM] [QUOTE=Oil Can,Dec 19 2003, 10:37 AM] Is anyone else sick of hearing Gasbag (and others) say, "I still believe that this deal may get done. Both sides have just spent too much time on this to turn around now."

[/quote]
I cannot listen to one more moment of Gasbag, he is a perfect canidate for the pulp fiction ball-gag.

The Schilling interview is great - thanks for the link. As a california resident i can tell you a 16 minute interview with a baseball player about the media in the dead of winter - well it ain't gonna happen. I miss the intensity I think.

The best thing about Schiling is that deep down inside he is a passionatte opinionated baseball fan.

THIS is the real problem with this deal taking so long. IMO the A-Rod thing will definitely get done. However, there are a few teams looking to obtain Ordonez's services. Kenny Williams is a very good GM and he may not wait around for the A-Rod thing to end. We may have a problem if this doesn't end soon.

Pardon me if this has already been brought up, but does anybody else get the feeling that LL and JH are positioning this thing for something larger than just the trade? That their end game may well have ARod in crimson, but that they want to take the Union down a few pegs as well? Just seems to convenient to have the Commish involved if there wasn't a bigger picture other than ARod in Athens is good for all Greeks. Just thinking . . .

As for the Union, remember they are all based on the theory that a rising tide buoys all boats, when the tide recedes even a little, they get nervous.

Markets, in a general sense, require the assumption of rationality and access to information. That is, a rational buyer and a rational seller, can agree on a mutually beneficial price. The purpose of a Players Association and Agents is to provide ball players with a certain rationality, i.e. martket information, they will need to act as a rational seller of services.

Obviously, a 22 year old ball player from Mexico does not have the market information to make a rational judgement as to his market worth. The JHs and TWs and LLs and Theos of the world would eat his lunch. Agents and unions protect this 22 year old player from his own ignorance of the marketplace.

However, once the union and agents have provided this 22 year old player with all the relevent information, one must then assume that he is acting rationally when he determines a price for his own services. It is not up to a union or an agent to determine the value of certain aspects of a contract, it is up to the seller (player) to do that. How much is it worth for a player to go to a contender vs going to a dog is a value that the rational, informed player must make.

The players union, by preventing A-Rod from being a rational/informed seller of his own services is doing him a great disservice by not only preventing him from doing what he wants, but saying in public that A-Rod is incapable of accurately valuing certain aspects of his own future.

This is why union, to this day, are often tagged with the socialist/communist/Stalinist label as they see themselves as vastly superior in intelligence to the people they claim to represent.

iontball, agreed, they may be taking a liberal stance on this, and it most likely is challengable by law (and prob. a winnable case). But AROD won't be a part of it, nor should he be. The union is taking a predictable stance. There may be room for compromise, but from what we've been hearing (again not sure how true it is), the sox are not interested unless it goes through the way they proposed it. The job of a union is to negotiate concessions, not just agree to what ever mngmnt has in mind. I think LLucky is not the right guy to be negotiating this thing, I sense contempt from the MLPA for him. But hey I am just some guy on a RS msg board, not an expert w/inside info...

You're still not saying anything new, or at least not making an argument against me as far as I can tell.

By putting forward my "simple" MBA rule, I was only pointing out that people who say that they believe that this deal will get done because they have already invested too much into the project are looking at this the wrong way. They may well do the trade and perhaps even for the reasons that you are pointing out. BUT, they certainly won't do the trade simply because they have, "invested too much time into already." That's all I was saying. By the way, my "simple" MBA rule is VERY applicable here. In fact, its a rule that is applicable to just about any facet of life, if you are able to understand it or not.

By the way, keep in mind that while MLB gets a massive amount of media coverage, its not exactly the most "high stakes" game in town. Go tell some of these guys working on massive M&A transactions that this deal that saves one company about $90MM is what you feel, so "high states", normal rules of business don't apply. I'm sure they would agree.

Come on, dog! That's just not fair, and you know it. The barstaff has been warning and advising people to think before they post. Anyone who reads these threads has got to know that. We've also stated that the board is having growing pains, and that we hope things will settle down when 1) this trade issue is resolved, and 2) we get the chat option up and running. We've asked you all to bear with us as we deal with our nearly exponential growth over the past few days.

If I had a dollar for every post I've deleted or every email I've sent to posters asking them to think before they post, our holiday fund would meet its goal. The other mods have done the same. We all have 'day jobs', too.

We are trying to find a middle ground here. We don't want to exclude anyone who wants to contribute. We want to keep the board open to all Sox fans. On the other hand, we DO want to discourage the chat element. That takes education, and we are getting there.

You and all the other experienced and articulate posters can help by setting an example with well-reasoned discussion, and by reminding others to 'cut the chatter'. The barstaff is not above criticism, and we HAVE listened to posters' concerns, but we are trying to respond to concerns from ALL posters.

Thanks..

Anni

[quote=Dirt Dog,Dec 19 2003, 10:58 AM] [QUOTE]Well, many of us don't agree. As far as I'm concerned, you can pack up this entire thread and move it to the saloon, or throw it into outer space for all I care. There's about 2 pages of worthwhile commentary, and 157 pages of useless chatty bullshit.


Didn't catch who posted this originally. But Bravo. I concur 100%.
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[/quote]
I have to say I agree and to that end if I have posted "chatty bullshit" I apologize.

They're not even close, Jolmy. Give me a goddamn break, I'm getting ready to go x-mas shopping and I'm in a bad enough mood as it is.

Ordonez is not going to replace Manny's production. I'm optimistic that he can replace Nomar's but christ, at least give credit to Manny where it's due - he's the best hitter in the league, bar none. The difference in their defense comes nowhere near making up for the difference in their offense.


This is why no challenge will be made. And the union was not overstepping its bounds - deferrals are one thing, but if Rodriguez was going to leave upwards of $30 Million on the table, the MLBPA had to step in. If the owners really want this done, they should foot the bill, not the player.

Otherwise, what's to stop teams from actively antagonizing their players, then telling them "well, we'll trade you, but only if you take a hefty paycut?" There's too much potential for unscrupulous behavior from ownership if this precendent was set.


Hey, what a great "leader" we're bringing in. And people think Manny and Nomar are clubhouse problems.

Excellent post. You are exactly right.

No, it isn't a good point.

"invested too much time already" is just another way of saying "they've gone too far down the road already"

It isn't like people are insinuating that there is an x number of hours at which point the red sox have to say "oh we spent enough time, gotta do it now".

It is more like saying that these things can reach a point where not doing it becomes more problematic than anything else, which is what most people are saying.

I've asked before if some folks could elaborate on the above type of thinking. I know that it is the thinking of Orza but it makes no sense to me at all. Others on the board have posted the same thinking as Orza but have not provided the kind of concrete examples of horrible things that would likely happen to players should this A-Rod deal go through.

If there is anyone here who would like to provide such examples, I would appreciate it, but until then I'd have to say that Orza is blowing smoke....

This may be a stupid question but who is gasbag? Gammons?

Bob Ryan now on the FAN talking about the ARod trade as this story continues to be the #1 story this morning here (even though Mike Jarvis has just been fired as coach at St. John's which is a pretty big local story).

Ryan basically agrees with the Fan guys that the deal will eventually happen. Ryan says that a noticeable portion of Sox fans are perfectly happy to go to war with Manny and Nomar plus Schilling and Foulke, and he's right about that. Warns that ARod isn't exactly as he appears to be. Says that ARod hasn't "lifted a finger" to help the Rangers with their PR down there and isn't the smiling face he presents to the media in the clubhouse.

Ryan said that he thinks that both Nomar and Manny should be able to put this behind them and have excellent seasons in 2004 for the Sox if need be. Nomar because of his "tunnel vision" and Manny because of his obliviousness. He also says that Nomar would probably tell management to "shove it" after the season was through though.

Ryan also took predictable shots at both Manny ("he probably doesn't even know this is happening. He just wants his 4.5 atbats a game and then to go out and buy more diamond earrings") and Nomar ("Nomar and Mia's kid will end up on the shrink's couch at six months").

And Ryan also said that the legal guys he's talked to agree (with some on this board) that they're taking a deliberately "letter of the law" approach on this, and that, if they wanted to, they could find enough wiggle room to make this case an "exception" and still protect the players.

Gammons is indeed Gasbag

A-Rod said those things about Manny and Nomar?

Really?

RR, I'll take a crack at it...actually I won't, but it is Orza's JOB to make sure that things like this do not take place. Even if it is a low probability, he needs to guard against it. It's easy for us to say this or that won't happen, this makes sense for everyone (as the AROD thing looks like it does), but it's up to GO to think about poss. ramifications of allowing it, however unlikely it may be..

Gammons a.k.a. Gasbag - He was the lead baseball reporter for the Boston Globe for a long time (now it's Gordon Edes) - He went to ESPN about 5 years ago and is now their most prominent baseball reporter - I'm a longtime fan of his but others have a different opinion of him

If that is Gammons' point, then he should say it rather than spout a useless cliche over and over again.

If it is Gammons' point that Nomar is soooo hurt that he won't play hard next year (even though he's in a contract year), then let Gammons say it and defend his statement i.e. "I talked to Nomar and he said he's throwing in the towel."

If it is Gammons' point that Manny suddenly achieved consciousness and now "deeply cares about what Theo thinks of him" then let him say that too.

But until any commentator wishes to actually say anything like this, please forgive me if I role my eyes when they claim that smart people like the RS front office "have" to get the deal done because its "gone on so long already".

I think he was saying Bob Ryan was saying that.

One more thing about the @#$@ Union.

How can it be argued that keeping a statistically unbalanced portion of team payroll in the hands of one person on a team benefit the members of all the team?

How does A-Rod's contract help the payscale of players like Gabe Kapler and David Ortiz?

Here's a freakin' hint: IT DOESN'T!

A-Rod's contract is a liability towards bringing the median average of payscale up for the rest of the league. Or maybe in Orza's sick, fermented mind, having two players make 49 mil and 10 players make 100,000 is the same as 10 players making 10 mil each. Dumbass.

We should string up Orza by his toes and beat him with a pinyatta stick.

No, that is not what Gasbag was saying, and that is not what many of these posters have been saying. But to respond to your point:

As far as your "problems" that are caused by exploring this trade I assume you mean Manny and Normar's feelings. What you fail to recoginze is that this situation has not really changed that much. When they entered into this trade they had to know that Manny and Nomar would feel slighted by this. The fact is, they had by all accounts made the determinantion that they could not sign Nomar to a reasonable contract next year. How has this changed? I'll grant you that Nomar probably gets more pissed as this drags out, but is that a reason to spend more than the deal is worth? They factored these risked when they entered into these discussions. I'll wager anything you want on the fact that they never thought that this trade had a 100% chance of being completed. So, I ask you, what has significantly changed now to make you say, "They have gone too far to turn back"? If this whole trade talk had never surfaced, they still were probably not going to sign Nomar next year. So why is it necessary to overpay, or stretch for this trade now?

NO. NO. NO...Ryan did!

My bad.

I'll go back and clarify.

It's that hard to think of ways for teams to make players' live miserable? Maybe for you, but for people like Jerry Reinsdorf and Carl Pohlad, I doubt it very much. It's easy: hire a red-ass manager who gives the star a hard time; jerk around other players/coaches/personnel whom the player is close to; rip the player in the press for not "putting the team first;" mess with his playing time or his position; hire some guy to harass the player's wife from the grandstand; hire a private detective to follow the player around (hmm, where'd I get that one from?); to make a long story short, there are ways.

And whatever I can think of, owners can think of. Which is not to say they'd all run out and do all of those things, but once the potential is there, it becomes that much easier.

Amen brother.

Jolmy, While it is easy to understand your bitterness to MLPA for players making obsene amounts of money, this is not all the result of Orza. The players AND owners are every bit at fault. Orza is a mouthpiece for the union, but I doubt he is the be all end all for policy. I would argue that in fact AROD's rediculous contract DOES drive up the rest of the players contracts, or at least it did, the apperent shift in the market may render the effect of AROD's contract meaningless. It may wind up being such an outlier that it has no effect on the market, but I don't see how it could effect it a negative way..,ie driving down other players contracts

You have no idea what you're talking about. This isn't even economics 101, so I'll keep this multiple choice.

If A-Rod takes less money, that sum accrues to who?

A. Gabe Kapler and David Ortiz
B. Oil Can Jolmy and Mclusky
C. Tom Hicks and John Henry

As it stands, 100% of the money in question now goes to "the players," namely, A-Rod. If he accepts a pay reduction, 100% of that money goes directly to "the owners."

There is no guarantee Hicks will spend a dime of that savings on other players. In fact, I doubt it's even likely.