Ok - I've been thinking way too much about this since I first heard about the AROD to Yankees trade on Saturday morning. My initial reaction was like many of your own.

Not again. They're ruining my SUMMMMMMAHHHHHH!

Upon further review, I am of the mind that the AROD deal has more impact on Red Sox Nation than it will on the actual pennant race. The following are a few of my reasons for feeling positive - I'd love to hear some from other Royal Rooters!

1) The Red Sox have a better pitching staff by a fair amount. Curt Schilling brings something the Yankees (with the departure of Pettite and Clemens) do not have; a proven record in winning big games. The Red Sox also have very few question marks in the rotation with Pedro, D- Lowe and Wakefield. Kim is a question mark at this point.

The MFYs? They've got nothing BUT question marks. Can Kevin Brown stay healthy and if so, how long before he creates his usual clubhouse problems? Mike Mussina has performed very poorly in his recent post season starts. Could it be Mikey doesn't deal with pressure very well? Vazquez is a horse , no doubt. There is a HUGE difference between winning a meaningless game against the Mets in Puerto Rico in July and winning a game against the Sox in Femway in October. Think about it for a minute, how often have we seen a pitcher who has done well on non contending teams but fail badly when in a pennant race or post season? We saw that first hand with Suppan and Sauerbach last year. Contreras? He has proven NOTHING yet. The Red Sox offense drools at the thought of facing him in a big game. Lieber? He hasn't pitched in 18 months. 'nuf ced.

Best of all, the have NO lefthanded starter. And they lost their BEST big game pitcher in Pettite.

As for the bullpen, I'll put Williamson, Timlin, Embree, Arroyo and Foulke against ANY bullpen in the Major leagues.

2) THe game isn't played on paper. How will notoriously bad citizens such as Brown and Sheffield fit in on a Yankee team that won their championships because of great team chemistry more than talent. They haven't won since Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosious and Tino Martinez left. Are the guys they brought in to replace these three more talented? Absolutely. Yet they haven't won. I think that speaks volumes.

3) The Yankees are a terrible defensive team. ARod doesn't change that unless he moves to short which brings me to....

4) The Inevitable AROD/Jeter blow up. The two players involved will likely handle things well and not let pettiness get in the way. The same CANNOT be said for Steinbrenner. How do you suppose he will react if Jeter has defensive troubles again, and Georgie Porgie looks to Jeter's left and sees the best defensive SS in the league? Think he may attempt to coherce, and then ORDER Torre to swap them? How do you think Capt. Intangibles will react to that?

5) Most importantly, the Red Sox still have more talent. If there is a BETTER RH hitter than A-Rod, it's MANNY RAMIREZ. I think we are letting his antics overshadow his substantial offensive talents. Nomar has something to prove and that will drive him. He is nothing if not a prideful player and he will want to show the world that he doesn't concede that Arod is a better player than him. Ortiz is just coming in to his own. Nixon is morphing into Paul O'Neill. Johnny Damon is unappreciated offensively.

6) Deadline deals - People keep saying that the Yankkes will trade for pitching in July. Have you looked at theirfarm system lately? What exactly do they have to trade that will bring a front line starter? All the money in the world will not help in making an in season deal. The other team has to recieve something other than cash in return if they are to trade a top pitcher. How will the Yankees pull that off with a barren farm system?

oK - THAT'S my verbose post....what are YOUR thoughts?

If there is a silver lining to all of this, that is it. Now that Nick Johnson and Soriano are gone the Yankee$ have no affordable major league ready talent to deal during the season. This places the Sox in the better position to make a deal during the season.

couldn't agree more......what do ya say we go ahead and play the season anyway?

The real world is the Red Sox have put a limit on their spending,
and the Yankees have no limit.
In the era of free agency, you simply can't compete with them
over a long season in their division.
They fill a need by just buying another free agent or salary dump.
Pitching? Heck, Maddux is still out there--along with the salary dumps.
The Yankees have an almost infinite supply of TV cable money--call it media money--to spend. And George is a controller obsessed with winning.

From what Gammons and now Edes have said, the Manny for ARod deal
in the end boiled down simply to a straight player swap--and it should have been
a no-brainer for the Red Sox. But they still turned it down--some say
nixed by part-owner NY Times (which, strangely enough, also owns the Boston Globe)--for financial reasons.
Well, NY never turns any deal down for financial reasons.

Plus, as smart as Henry appears, there is still some incompetence in the Red Sox management.
After all, somebody hired Little.

We've gone from being slight favorites to slight underdogs. Anything might happen - this is real life.

From Mazz's column today.

So Rodriguez is about to be a Yankee. We said the same thing when Mike Mussina went to New York, when Jason Giambi went there, even when Jose Contreras signed with the Yankees after smoking cigars with Sox general manager Theo Epstein and former director of international scouting Luis Eljaua. And while the Red Sox have gone 85 years since their last world title, the fact remains that Mussina, Giambi and Contreras similarly have failed to deliver a championship to New York.

Now the Yankees are about to get A-Rod.

If you ask me, he is just another good reason for America to root against them.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/redS...g?articleid=500

IMO a great point by Mazz.

Can SI please put Arod and Jeter on the cover of the baseball preview?

Being the underdog will make it that much sweeter when we beat the Yankee$.

The point is that unless the "salary dump" player's contract is outrageous, other teams will be vying for the services of that player. The Yank$ are pretty much "old mother hubbard", and the cupboard is bare.

Lets hypothetically say that Randy Johnson becomes available at the trading deadline this season and 5-6 teams are interested. What can the Yankees possibly offer for a player of that caliber that is a better package than the other interested teams?

What kind of advice would u give Theo about beating the MFY's...

Fire LL.

all great points, ghost, but youre also forgetting one. statistically speaking arod doesnt even make them better on paper than last year.

projected stats (rototimes) for 2004 (assuming boone wasnt hurt, and multiplying to accomodate the at bats that would come with enrique wilson playing full time 2B:

Soriano + Boone = 59 HR, 186 RBIs, 57 SB

Arod + Wilson = 54 HR, 191 RBIs, 21 SB

Power and RBI numbers work out about the same, but speed is way down. of course you can argue that boone is out with or without arod, and of course arod+wilson is higher on the power side than soriano+wilson. however, this years infield compared to last years infield is realtively the same on offensive production.

I cant wait for the season to start. Come may when the MFY are in second place, sheffield, arod and jeter are butting heads, brown's hurt again, giambi's been indicted on steroid charges, and torre's been fired, we can all sit back and laugh while georgie porgie reflects on his incredible luxury tax bill.

Please keep the optimistic posts coming. It is helping to ease the devastation I (and I assume a ton of other members reading these threads) am feeling...

Speed on the basepaths is going to be a huge factor.Not to mention the alex rodriguez trade puts joe torre's managerial skills to the test.The mfy's trading soriano lose alot of speed baserunning.Lofton is not as fast as he was and yopu know jeter is going to be #2 in the lineup followed by afraud.I think it puts torre in a rock and a hard place with hit and runs, and sacrifices.Afraud will be pissed cause he took the bat out of his hands,jeter will cry cause his game is steal a base when needed get dirty get into scoring position no matter what.

As for the sox now have the spped and grit they have been missing all these years.damon will give you 30 -40 steals we have reese who is fast bellhorn has speed,nomar isnt slow,also variteks delayed steals and the grit millar,nixon,ortiz bouncing off the ground after sliding into base.

My point is we have what the yankees always had before which now they do not.we will sacrifice,we will bunt,we will steal a base.get runners in scoring position when it is needed the most.and finally have the players and speed to bring those runners home.

Just curious, what was the individual projection for Boone?

If your a stats person the MFY really don't gain anything offensively vs. the Sox, with this trade.

Three year splits vs. Boston ba/ops/hr

Arod in 73 at bats .262/.854/5

Soriano in 203 at bats .310/.877/9

Defensively Arod is better, but he will not be playing second for NY. Defensively Enrique Wilson is not an upgrade over Soriano. He may end up making less errors but his range will be very limited.

Quite simply WE WILL WIN because 'The Zoo' is back. Look at the superstar egos in the $kank's clubhouse: AFraud, Gayboy, Giambi, Brown, Sheffield, Mussina, Pussada, and on....Can they handle the pressure? I predict that Alex and Gayboy will not be getting along sooner rather than later. The parts are great BUT will they fit together? No. Look at the N.Y. Rangers. And who can forget the Zookeeper himself. Georgie's gonna be losing it by the All-Star break. This is going to be very interesting.

I think its a given that Arod will be on the cover but hopefully they leave the Redsox out completely therefore we can watch that team self destruct.

Ghost,

I love your enthusiasm but must disagree with you on two points. First, the Yankees have a pretty good pitching staff. Sure there are some question marks on health, but the same could be said for the Sox staff as well. Second, IMO the second best RH hitter would be Pujols. Otherwise excellent analysis.

desoxrep: your analysis is flawed because Wilson would presumably get more AB's this season and produce better numbers over more AB's (albeit with a lower BA)

Can't wait for the season to begin. Let's kick a little MFY ass!

The posts on estimated NYY offense with Soriano + Boone vs. ARod + 2B make clear that 2004 NYY are not even approximately unbeatable. Frankly, I'd be much, much more upset if NYY had gotten Johan Santana from MIN in terms of 2004 competition. Or, C.C. Sabathia from CLE.

So, what is scary?

Well, NYY might somehow be able to upgrade their rotation. Perhaps this happen but the only rumoured deal at the moment is Maddux to NYY. Maddux is not at all likely to be interested in NYY. And adding Maddux is not what NYY want because he's another RHP and has performed poorly in the playoffs. RJohnson is another matter.

Or, NYY might get Vidro soon via trade or FA signing (or Kent via FA signing or Glaus or ...) ...

If FiaT lets payroll go to 250M (pre-tax), then NYY have 10M per roster position. Will FiaT do this? Will MLB let him do this? Perhaps. That can't be controlled by Theo.

What Theo can assure is that the SOX are constantly poised as a team that may well play an ALCS with NYY and be a slight underdog. And FiaT can spend and spend and spend again and not do better than small edge.


Seems to me the fear ought to be centered south by ~206 miles.

I apologize for not following the thread before today, but here's my view...

1. The Yankees, while improved marginally, are about the worst $200 million team money can buy. They just traded their best player, IMJ, for a better player, but not a $20 m better player. Soriano is certainly the only player on their team with a potential upside.

2. This smacks of one-upmanship rather than smart baseball. If you've got $20 million burning a hole in your pocket and Soriano already in the bank, you almost couldn't do worse with the $20 million. It may sell more tickets, but it didn't make them a markedly better team.

3. Back to my point 1, if you could average almost $10 million per player, couldn't you look a lot better than this squad?

Go Sox.

KJC - good point.

The average is 8M and that should get 25 quasi-allstars. The NYY $s are very poorly spent.

That's about 25 Keith Foulkes, by my estimation.

Yes, this deal will keep the Sox off the SI cover and the jinx won't hit us. Maybe the deal isn't so bad after all

I'll let Michael Holley do the talking for me.

last night i had this dream... :zzzzz ..".....garciaparra swings and hits the ball deep into the hole......a-rod lunges left......jeter dives to his right!....look out! ....there is blood everywhere!....holy cow i think jeter has been decapitated!" :zzzzz and then, sadly, i was dropped back into reality....

individual projections:

boone: 586AB, 90runs, 154 Hits, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 22 SB
soriano: 624 AB, 99 runs, 184 hits, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 35 SB

Thanks!

Let me clarify the second point. I meant to say Manny was the best righthanded hitter in the (American) League...I'm not sure what I actually wrote and I'm too emotionally drained to look it up :-)

As for the MFY pitching staff, yes I was engaging in a bit of hyperbole there but I do believe the Sox staff is better. In addition, in my experience, question marks in the pitching staff generally result in negative anwers to those questions.

Ahh the curse of the SI cover!

The headline of the NY Post will read.....

Jeter and Arod hospitalized after hanging out with "friend" Richard Gere!

Lately I have become increasingly annoyed by the national media. The constant references to "the curse", and the fallout in Red Sox nation, have provided plenty of aggravation.

I have been hearing the term "offseason momentum" lately. I would like to voice my opinion on what a bunch of BS this is. Do you really suppose any of the sox or the MFY care on whether or not the press has picked them to win? There is only one kind of momentum. The kind of momentum that grips a team on the field during a winning streak. Offseason momentum is a media-created creature.

Also, this may be contreversial, but I feel A-rod may be a tad bit overrated. Given, the expectations are enormous, but I don't rightly feel he deserves the title of "best player in the game"

Hitting .298 with 47 HR and 118 RBI does not hand you such an esteemed title.

Also does anyone wonder what they will do about 2b? In reality they traded Boone/Soriano for A-rod/Enrique Wilson. Numbers wise, their previous situation was the better one. In Wilson's best year he hit .262 in 332 AB's. He had 2 homers along with 22 doubles and 5 SB's. This exchange is an obvious blow to the MFY speed as a team, but power and average as well?

I am just speculating, so feel free to tear me apart.

-Sox Fan for life, no matter what happens

wait your forgetting mike lamb who they also got in a trade last week from texas.

Don't forget glovework. with A-Rod at 3rd (how long will that last!), we are better at 7 of the 8 positions, it ain't close in some cases:
1B: Millar vs Giambi (Millar is no GG threat, but Giambi has the range of a forklift)
2B: Pokey vs Wilson(?) (I am assuming its Wilson, but Pokey is better than anyone)
SS: Nomar vs Jeter (nuff said)
3B: Mueller vs A-Rod (Arod will do ok, but lacks experience. Mueller is solid)
C: Tek vs. Posada (they throw about the same, but Posada forgets to catch the ball)
LF: Manny vs Matsui (I'll give them this one)
CF: Damon vs Lofton/Williams (please. those guys are OLD)
RF: Nixon vs. Sheffield (Gary is in the lineup for his bat. Trot plays a good RF in the toughest RF in the bigs)

Hey John Henry, Larry, ect.. I know you guys have been in baseball for a long time, but not BOSTON BASEBALL!! The "Boss" took you out to the woodshed today and might do it again tomorrow!! Never easy being a Sox Fan. Will always remember Teddy Ballgames last at bat!!..............................................................

What does this have to do with the thread?




Garry, ARod will be better at 3rd than Mueller is, this isn't a hard transition for him, in fact, he's sacrficing some of his D by playing there. ARod is already a better 3b defensively than Mueller, no question about it. As for 1b, you have to factor in Travis Lee, which gives the Yanks the advantage there.



ARod was asked to be a homerun hitter and run producer in Texas, not a batting title winner. He had almost no protection last year in that lineup, he's averaged .308/44/126/.382/.581 and he will have some serious bats around him in this lineup. He's going to get more RBI chances and more chances to drive in runs, with less pressure to produce. He'll have a good season in NY and I'd expect ARod to hit at least .320 this year with Giambi and Sheff behind him. He certainly deserves the 'esteemed title' that's been given to him, which is why he was so sought after by two of the biggest teams in the MLB. He's the best in the leauge, let's not try and find the smallest ways to dismiss that.

Love below-
you may be right on arod at 3rd. I can't say as I've never seen him play there. Travis Lee will not play much for the skanks, so that good glove will be of no use. Giambi will have to play more unless they bench Lofton or Bernie (CF loser will be the DH, or so they say)

Garry,

There's a good chance that Bernie spends more time on the DL this year, that'll get Lee some serious playing time if that occurs. However, while I see your point, it at least has to be a wash with Lee there as insurance.

TLB- You're right... Lee definitely does represent a better defensive 1B than we have, but you have to remember that every game he starts is one that either Giambi or Bernie isn't playing in. That's a good thing for whoever the Yanks are playing that day. Defensively, you're right, its probably a wash... but I'll take Ortiz/Millar over Giambi/Lee.

Giambi has no range, knee problems, and could very well be a different player this year now that his, ahem, training regimen has likely been changed. Lee, if he is in fact with the Yanks (I though Tony Clark was their backup 1B?) is good defensively, but not exactly an offensive powerhouse. I don't see 1B as a NYY advantage right now.

2 quick things...

1.a-rod with park adjusted numbers dosent hit as well at the shithole....( if you really want the numbers i can dig them up)

2.pitching and defense should always beat a good offense...

o.k. i lied...i have 3 things...


3.the law of large numbers has to dictate that the yankees will implode like a tactical nuke at some point....i am just praying to the baseball gods to bring the bastards back to reality.....you cant buy every all star at every position and not expect the shit to hit the fan...

heres to the shit hitting the fan!!!! :gosox

Ok, here's two points that should make people feel better...

1) The best Yankee teams have been made up of left handed batters that can take advantage of the RF porch in Yankee Stadium.

Recent examples: Justice, O'Neill, Tino...even Strawberry and Chili Davis to a lesser extent, Bernie and Posada being switch hitters seeing most ABs from the left side.

Historic examples: Maris, Gehrig, Ruth, Mantle, Jackson

2) The best Yankee teams have been made up of LH starters that negate the lefty batting advantage in Yankee stadium.

Recent examples: Pettitte, Rogers, Key, Neagle, Lilly

Historic examples: Ford, Guidry, Lopat, Gomez, Pennock

Ok, so what are the 2004 Yankees made out of?

LH Batters: Matsui, Giambi, Lamb
Switch Hitters: Bernie, Posada, Clark, Sierra, Wilson

LHP: Felix Heredia

This team has been built ass-backwards from the usual blueprints for Yankee championship teams. They're loaded with RH bats and RH pitching, their sole lefty has worse splits against RH batters. Three of these pitchers (Brown, Leiber, Vazquez) are coming from long stints in the NL and two of their pitchers (Karsay, Leiber) didn't even pitch last year. The more you look at the way this team is built, the more you have to like the chances the Sox have.

TLB is correct; IIRC Bill James noted this same trend in the New Historical Abstract. Rodriguez's days of threatening 50 HR a year are probably over.

Furthermore...

Alfonso Soriano hit considerably better over the past three years on the road than he did at home, hitting more HRs and batting nearly 40 points higher. Jeter did roughly the same, but he's not much of a power hitter.

No Yankee RH batter has ever hit 50 HRs, very few have even hit 40 in a season, Soriano and DiMaggio only being the most notable exceptions. However, Soriano, as I pointed out, hit more on the road and I'd have to assume that DiMaggio did the same. Dave Winfield probably sacrificed a lot of HRs by going to the Yankees, he only hit more than 30 twice during his 9 seasons there.

The best RH power hitters in Yankee history were all lefties, it should be interesting to see what that deep LF will do for all those RH hitters.

Honestly, the Yankees might have been better off taking a chance on Griffey, as opposed to signing Sheffield and perhaps should've looked to trading for Eric Chavez, instead of Trading for ARod. I mean, I know that's a stretch, but they would've saved a ton of money and both players would've come cheaper, with better defense and possibly be more effective weapons for their 81 home games.

Offense:
The MFY have a murderers row for a line-up. Last I checked though, the Red Sox had the most potent offense last year since the 1927 Yankees, but have lost Todd Walker. However, we will see a full season of Mueller and Ortiz now that Hillenbrand isn't around to grab AB's. The bench has also improved with the addition of Ellis Burks.
Edge: slight edge to the Yankees

Pitching:
The pitching staff for the Yankees have been revamped, most notably 3/5 of the SP although their bullpen has improved. The Sox have improved their pitching staff by importing a #1 pitcher and one of the top 5 closers in baseball.
Edge: slight edge to the Red Sox

Defense:
The Red Sox rid themselves of Walker at 2B and replaced him with a gold-glover in Reese. The Yankees lost a gold-glover to injury and replaced him by importing another gold-glover...and will be playing him out of position. They will also probably platoon at 2B barring a trade. They replace an aging 35 year old CF with limited range with a 36 year old CF with average range.
Edge: clear win for the Red Sox

The Red Sox will beat the Yankees because in baseball, the key to winning is pitching and defense.

A Detroit Free Press writer agrees with Kid T:

BASEBALL: Bosox armed for Yankees

A-Rod, offense might not be enough
February 17, 2004

BY JOHN LOWE
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST

When I heard Alex Rodriguez would join the Yankees -- the Tiffany player on the Tiffany team -- I felt as I did in October when Jorge Posada's bloop hit shook Yankee Stadium. No matter what the Red Sox do, the Yankees will trump them.

The Rodriguez sweepstakes reprised last year's American League championship series: After Boston seemed en route to clinching the pennant, the Yankees swooped in like a condor and snared the prize.

Red Sox fans continue to serve their sentence of life without a World Series title. The Yankees again have the luck. They got Babe Ruth in 1920 because the Bosox were foolish enough to sell him. They got Rodriguez because two months ago the Red Sox let their tentative trade for him disappear into a financial fog.

But the Yankees' luck against the Bosox cuts even deeper than Ruth and Rodriguez. The Yanks even get the bloop hits when needed.

Bloop hits change history in Bronx
In November, I came across this quote from Ted Williams:

"Oh, God, that cheap hit, that cheap . . . hit," Williams said. "Forty years later, I can close my eyes and still see it."

Williams made that comment in David Halberstam's book "Summer of '49," about the 1949 pennant race between the Yankees and Red Sox.

I knew the 1949 American League season ended as 2003 did: the Yankees and Red Sox pitted in a winner-take-all game at Yankee Stadium for the pennant and a spot in the World Series.

I also knew, as I trust almost every Red Sox fan does, that the foundation of the Yankees' victories in both those games came from an eighth-inning rally.

But in the years since I read Halberstam's book, I had forgotten that the Yankees' key eighth-inning hit in 1949, as in 2003, was a blooper.

Last fall, Posada dropped his two-run bloop double into centerfield off the fatigued, over-extended Pedro Martinez. Posada's hit capped a three-run rally and tied the score. Mariano Rivera blanked the Red Sox until the Yankees won in the 11th on Aaron Boone's leadoff homer.

The 1949 blooper came from Yankees rookie infielder Jerry Coleman. New York had scored once in the eighth to increase its lead to 2-0. Coleman then batted with two out and the bases loaded. He hit his blooper down the rightfield line. It fell, and three runs scored for a 5-0 Yankees lead. Boston scored three in the ninth, but lost, 5-3.

Four decades later, Williams lamented Coleman's hit as if it had just landed.

It's cruel that Williams, who understood the science of the line drive as well as anyone who ever gripped a bat, should have to stand in the outfield and watch his team's season vanish on a blooper.

It's cruel that bloop hits in 1949 and 2003 would enable the Yankees to extend baseball's most famous shutout: Since Ruth joined the Yankees, the Yankees have won 26 World Series and the Red Sox haven't won any.

And it can't be coincidence that in coming to New York, Rodriguez gives up wearing No. 3 -- Ruth's number.

No lock for George's empire
As when they acquired Roger Clemens in 1999, the Yankees have welcomed spring training by acquiring a Hall of Fame talent. They again have dropped the hammer of competitive imbalance on the rest of baseball at the very juncture -- the opening of training camp -- when optimism among all fans should peak.

But the Yankees might yet need another big bloop hit this fall. Even with Rodriguez's arrival, the good ship Steinbrenner can't be called anything close to a lock for the World Series title (as if anyone ever could be in February). All of you who don't want the Yankees to win it all can embrace this solace:

No matter how many runs Rodriguez helps the Yankees score in the regular season, they likely will encounter pitchers in the postseason who can restrain them. The Yankees will then need strong games from their starters -- their new starters. Only Mike Mussina remains from last season's rotation regulars. Clemens, Andy Pettitte and David Wells are gone. The new starters carry credentials and questions: Javier Vazquez, exchanging Montreal's obscurity for the big stage; Kevin Brown, needing to stay healthy; Jon Lieber, returning from a major arm injury; and Jose Contreras, carrying all of nine career starts on his resume.

The Red Sox classically have loaded up with hitting while the Yankees countered with superior pitching. Now look at this off-season. The Red Sox didn't get Rodriguez, but they added Arizona starter Curt Schilling and signed Oakland free-agent closer Keith Foulke. If Schilling and Foulke pitch as superbly as they have in recent seasons, Boston could have a noticeably stronger staff than the Yankees. Imagine what that could mean this fall:

Fenway Park's spectators, their coats and jackets as colorful in their mix as the New England foliage, stand and roar in the championship series as Schilling or Foulke or Martinez or Derek Lowe whiffs Rodriguez in a big spot.

Boston's pitching beats the Yankees' hitting for the pennant, and we can say that for once the Yankees became the Red Sox, and the Red Sox became the Yankees.

That would be something, wouldn't it, Babe?

Re: Pitching and defense wins championships:

1050 ESPN Radio NY reports this morning that Channel 7 ABC is saying the Yankees are "very close" to signing Greg Maddux. With Scott Boras in NY for the ARod press conference, negotiations are expected to continue today or tomorrow.

I don't know about ABC TV as a source, Jayson Stark says he doesn't think it'll happen...

1 thing a lot of people are forgetting about A-Rod was that Texas needed him to be a homer-hitter in a line-up he couldn't be protected in. This probably led to some of Palmeiro's good numbers. A-Rod will not need to fill that role with the Yankees. He will be protected in that line-up and will not need to hit the longball every time. I wouldn't be surprised to see his HR totals drop, but there will be a sharp increase in his average and OBP, as well as RBI's. You tell me what's better.

Not only are we off the cover of SI, Arod is wearing # 13!!

TEN REASONS THE YANKEES STILL WON'T WIN (MAYBE) (POSSIBLY):


1. They need more All-Stars
True, the Yankees have acquired seven former All-Stars this winter. True, there are now up to 17 different players on this roster who have made at least one All-Star team. True, they're now in position to start a lineup in which eight of the nine spots in the batting order are manned by All-Stars.



But the question George Steinbrenner has to be asking himself right now is: Are they absolutely, positively sure that's enough?



How can these Yankees possibly be asked to go to war with a non-All-Star second baseman every single night? It's so un-Boss-ian. Heck, isn't Jeff Kent available? Or Bret Boone? Or Joe Morgan?



And how can the Yankees possibly be expected to win when 40 percent of the starting rotation will be manned by non-All-Stars? (That's Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras, by the way.) Sheez, the Red Sox have three starting pitchers (Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe) who have started an All-Star Game. So this, clearly, is dangerous, dangerous territory the Yankees are treading in.



2. They need more $100 million men
Seven players in baseball history have signed contracts worth $100 million or more. Shockingly, three of them don't play for these Yankees (Mike Hampton, Junior Griffey and Manny Ramirez).



Not that the Yankees wouldn't be interested. So watch those New York tabloid headlines closely this spring. We predict a sighting, one of these days, of this one: "Hampton: I'd play second for Bombers."



3. Kevin Brown is a physical wreck
On one hand, Kevin Brown can be one of the most intimidating pitchers alive. On the other hand, what are the odds that, when the Yankees get to October, Brown will even be able to get to the mound?



Brown is 39 years old. And remember, over the last four years, he has missed approximately 46 starts with injuries, visited the disabled list seven times and had some kind of problem with his back, elbow, groin, neck, Achilles tendon, finger and abdominal muscles. Which means, by our calculation, the only part of his body he hasn't injured is his right eyebrow.



During the winter meetings, after the Yankees traded for Brown, we asked a baseball man familiar with his medical history what the likelihood was of Brown making 35 starts this year. The answer: "Zero."



So who's waiting in the wings if Brown does break down? David Wells? Nope. Sterling Hitchcock? Nope. Brandon Claussen? Nope. Ron Guidry? Incorrect. At this point, it would probably be Donovan Osborne, whose last big-league start came during the previous millennium.



Oh, there's a remote possibility the Yankees would just trade the entire roster of the Columbus Clippers for Randy Johnson. But maybe not.



4. Who knows about Jon Lieber and Jose Contreras?
And then there are the Yankees' fourth and fifth starters.



Lieber was tremendous once. But he hasn't thrown a big-league pitch in a year and a half.



Contreras has astonishing stuff. But his next major-league start will be his 10th. And as we know, the history of Cuban pitchers who come to America is a little troublesome. (For details, see: Prieto, Ariel.)



It's certainly possible the Yankees could have the best and deepest rotation in baseball. But it's also possible that they'll have to go out in July and trade for not just Randy Johnson but Matt Morris and Tom Glavine, too.



Except could they, even if they wanted to? They've been assuring folks lately that they have plenty of prospects to trade if they need to. But other teams continue to suggest that's far from true.



5. The Curse of Don Zimmer
Beware of any team that lets the beloved Don Zimmer stomp angrily out the door. That's what we say. And darned if the Yankees didn't do exactly that last winter.



So irony of ironies, which team will the Yankees be facing on opening day in Tokyo? It would be those pesky Devil Rays, new employer of that very same Zimmer.



How do they know the sight of the hated pinstripes out on that field won't so enrage Zimmer that his neck won't bulge, he won't go charging out of the dugout to wreak his final revenge and he won't then be thrown to the ground by -- oh nooooo -- Alex Rodriguez?



The shame of it. The embarrassment. The potential for international crisis. The rise of the Curse of Zimmer. Could happen.



OK, probably won't. But could.



6. The Curse of Janet Jackson
The Yankees haven't won a single World Series since that Janet Jackson Super Bowl fiasco. You could look it up.



All right, so they haven't played any, either. But the facts are the facts.



And how do we know there isn't something more tangible to that curse of Janet Jackson?



How do we know that A-Rod won't be attempting to put on his uniform on opening day when a horrible "wardrobe malfunction" causes him to get tangled up in his shirt and then, in an attempt to break free, tear every ligament in his elbow?



Could happen. Hey, we said "could."



7. They could flunk chemistry
Forgive us if we've made this point before, but these are not Scott Brosius' Yankees. Nor are they Paul O'Neill's Yankees. Nor, in fact, even Ramiro Mendoza's Yankees.



The Yankees of 1996-2000 were polished and selfless and seamless. Every piece fit together. Every personality meshed into the big, ego-less picture.



But these Yankees have just four players remaining from the last bunch of pinstripers to tour that Canyon of Heroes. (That's Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera.)



And they keep injecting players into their potentially tenuous mix whose reputations don't quite include rave reviews for their selflessness. Gary Sheffield, Kenny Lofton, Ruben Sierra and Kevin Brown may be more talented than the guys they replaced. But "low-maintenance" wouldn't be the way anybody would describe them.



And now add A-Rod, a guy who always aspires to be well-behaved and properly motivated -- but also one who will be looking for constant validation and reassurance that he's living up to all his advertisements.



What happens the first time the owner rips one of these guys on the back page? What happens the seventh time? We don't know the answer to those questions.



What happens if Williams doesn't take to Steinbrenner's Bernie-as-DH scenario? What happens if the owner decides one night that A-Rod should be his shortstop and points that Tampa-based finger at Jeter? We don't know the answer to those questions, either.



And can a lame-duck manager, even one as accomplished as Joe Torre, keep all those egos soothed? It's no slam dunk.



8. Steinbrenner's health worries
Speaking of the owner, suppose that fainting episode this winter wasn't just some freak event? Suppose he's up there in the owner's booth again some night, slapping palms with Billy Crystal and Paul McCartney, when he passes out again?



And suppose, this time, he awakens, slightly delirious ... and announces he needs to step down temporarily ... and that he feels it's best if he passes the reins of the mighty Yankees to ...



The surviving cast members from "The Apprentice," whom he'd met while filming a very special episode, and they "seemed like such nice, bright young men and women"?



And suppose they mistakenly sell the team at a flea market, in a pressure-packed episode, in a desperate attempt to raise cash and not get fired? And suppose the new owner, Marcus P. Gentry of Staten Island, says, "Wait. I'm paying this team $190 million, and they just split a doubleheader with the Tigers?"



OK, so it probably wouldn't go exactly like that. But a downturn in Steinbrenner's health easily could change everything. And, as we all know, there's only one George.



9. How do we know A-Rod is cut out for New York?
Sure, it may sound ridiculous to suggest The Best Player in Baseball can't adjust to life in New York. But how do we know he can?



He has just engineered a trade that has been compared to the Babe Ruth deal. He has agreed to change positions -- to a position he has played for exactly one inning in his life.



He has never dealt full-time with a city remotely like New York, New York. He has never dealt with an owner remotely like George M. Steinbrenner III.



His stats will not be helped any by his departure from hospitable Arlington, Texas, where he has batted .332 and slugged .660 lifetime. And he will be the high-profile centerpiece of a team that is expected to go about 142-20.



If they don't win, if he doesn't hit 40 homers, if he causes any kind of second-guessing (even innocently) of the man who leads these Yankees (Jeter), if he shows up on the wrong page of the New York Post, how do we know how he'll react -- and how the other members of the Yankees kingdom will react?



We don't know. He doesn't know. Nobody knows. Until he proves he can.



10. He isn't exactly replacing Fernando Tatis
Finally, we might want to mention something here. A-Rod is, no doubt, an upgrade over just about anybody in any team's lineup. But he's not a massive offensive upgrade over the guy he's replacing in the Yankees' lineup -- Alfonso Soriano.



Only six players in the whole sport have outhomered Soriano over the last two years. Only two have scored more runs. No one has spewed more extra-base hits.



Even more fascinating, if you factor out A-Rod's Texas stats by comparing the numbers of these two guys just on the road, you discover something shocking:



Soriano has more road homers (45 to 44), many more runs scored (133 to 108) and a much higher batting average (.311 to .279) than A-Rod over the last two seasons. Hmmmm.



OK, so A-Rod is a much tougher out against certain pitchers in certain situations. And he's undoubtedly a better defensive player than Soriano, even at a new position.



But does he make the Yankees a vastly better offensive team? Does he make them a surefire, guaranteed, take-it-to-Vegas lock to win it all?



Sorry, friends. That's a knee-jerk conclusion. But it's not an accurate conclusion. Even if it turns out there was no such thing as that Curse of Don Zimmer.

:wally

Source/Link? Or did you create this yourself?

Isn't this Jayson Stark's article on ESPN today? Looks awfully familiar.

that is from ESPN.com Page 2 don't have link though.

God bless you guys for your optimism.

The only way the Yanks don't win it all is if Kevin Brown and Jason Giambi go down with injuries. It's possible, sure, but I wouldn't bet on it.

If the Yanks get Maddux, I may officially boycott the season. But of course I won't when the games are played.

The key to the Sox success will be one Pedro Martinez. If he can summon up one more near-healthy complete "Pedro" year, they may indeed challenge the Yanks. If he continues to labor to get to 100 pitches, and only wins 15 games, the Sox will finish 10-15 games behind the Yanks.