Why the hell are we looking at picking up a guy with a career OB% of .303 to back up crisp when we've got someone like stern?

I relalize Stern likely isn't quite ready for a full-time role, but we'd likely have to pay a little too much to line up Pena... talks are involving Arroyo right now, no?

THIS IS CONFIRMED!

WEEI just reported at the 11 AM sportsflash that Bronson Arroyo has been traded to the Reds for Pena.

just heard that..interesting..so who gets traded next Mohr or Nixon??

They're not acquiring Pena to be a backup to Crisp. They're getting him to be a RH-platoon partner for Nixon in 2006 and a possible full-time replacement for Nixon in 2007.

His OBP and K rates are pretty awful, but he absolutely has 35-HR potential and just turned 24. I wouldn't want to count on a guy like that as my 3-4 hitter, but that kind of power in the 5-6 hole? I'll take it.

Trading Arroyo clears up a lot of issues with the pitching staff and to be honest, Arroyo just isn't that good.

Wow. Great move, I think. Especially with the way Big Willie bashes LHP.

"Wily Theo Gets Wily Mo"

headline tomorrow

Mohr has a minor-league contract, so they can stash him in AAA if they want. He's not going to fetch anything in a trade anyway. As for Nixon, I suppose a deal is possible, but a Nixon-Pena platoon could be pretty productive.

Pena's career vs. LHP: .272/.342/.537 (.879 OPS), with 19 HRs in 257 ABs. That's damn good.

Cash included, says ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2376683

Well, we did have seven starting pitchers, and we needed a real platoon partner for Trot.

Against lefties over the past three years, Wily Mo has posted .276/.347/.536. In 2005, it was just about the same.

My first reaction was anguish, but upon looking at the numbers this seems to be a fair trade. Thanks for the memories, Saturn Nuts!!

Great trade...

What happens to Mohr?:

Press release from the Reds:


Reds.com

Whoa. Great deal for the Sox. I like Arroyo (not as much as Piney does) and I'll miss him, but I think we're going to love Wily Mo.

Exactly what I was thinking. He'll be a cheaper and younger option to retain than what Trot is. He signed a 1-year deal for 1.25 mil this year. He could also be a contingency plan if they do decide to deal Manny, which I hope they don't.

Either way, not a bad deal. Arroyo should pitch well in the NL and it's prolly best for him as he was on the bubble of the rotation for the Sox, but now he's easily the Reds #4 guy...

Those lefty numbers aren't too bad.

Looks to me like the Red Sox should have Pena under their control for three years, including this one (same as Arroyo). Pena is making $1.25 million in 2006, his first year of arbitration.

I guess this renders Mohr expendable. Hopefully Theo can get something of value for him in return.

I'm pretty ambivalent on this deal. I like Wily Mo (though I hate his name - I always want to say it like it's spelled), but I also liked having 7 SPs for the inevitable Schilling and Beckett injuries. I think the Red Sox are going to find themselves pitching-thin much sooner than anyone would expect.

Read somewhere Philly was scouting him.

Piney, thoughts and prayers.

"Wily Mo to the Sox for Arroyo
The Red Sox have traded Bronson Arroyo to the Reds in exchange for outfielder Wily Mo Pena, the Globe's Chris Snow has confirmed. Both Foxsports.com and the Boston Herald reported Monday that the Red Sox have had discussions with the Reds about trading for the right-handed outfielder. According to Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal, one of the Reds' top scouts watched Arroyo pitch against the Orioles on Sunday (he pitched five scoreless innings). The 24-year-old Pena had 19 homers in just 99 games last season, and has averaged a homer every 16.2 at bats. He hit .291 against lefties last season, and the Sox could theoretically use him in a platoon role with Trot Nixon (who struggles against lefties) in right field."

This is a great trade, IMO. Arroyo's greatest value was as a trading chip, and I think Pena will make a most suitable replacement for Nixon next year as well as a platoon partner this year.

So if we go Schill, Beckett, Wells, Wakes, Papelbon, who assumes sport starter/long relief?

I'm thrilled about this deal. Arroyo was far and away our worst SP of the 7 (eight if you include Lester). He was going to spend the year in the pen and his trade worth would've plummeted as a result.

I thank him for what he's done, but he certainly was worth more in netting us a young player with real power potential. I just hope Dave Wallace can work with WMP on his plate patience.

Great day to be a Red Sox fan. Nice job Theo.

Another one of the 25 departs.
Good luck in Cincinnati Bronson.

BTW, didn't Arroyo sign that three year deal this winter with the understanding he wouldn't be traded before the season started?

What an incredible deal for the Sox. We deal a pitcher who is almost certainly finished developing, and whom is unlikely to get any better (and somewhat likely to decline giving his hitter splits and dropping K rate) for a very young OF (only 24) with enormous upside. Wily Mo is not a patient hitter. At all. However, he absolutely kills the ball (40+ HR potential if he can ever learn to control the plate), and he's a great defender with a plus arm. Considering we control him for three years (through 2008), we'll have plenty of time to try and get him to learn to be more patient at the plate. If we succeed in doing that, we'll have at very least a more than decent replacement for Trot, and potentially a long term replacement for Manny if Pena can really learn to control the zone.

If the Sox can ever manage to convince Wily Mo that simply attempting to kill the ball isn't the best approach, we could have an absolute monster in RF for years to come, and not just offensively, but defensively as well. PMR (I believe) rated Pena as the 6th best defensive CF in the league.

The Red Sox never promised Arroyo that they wouldn't trade him. All they said when he signed the deal that
"nothing was on the table" and that they wouldn't go out of their way to trade him. However, they said you never know.

Well, this is you never know.

Nixon vs RHP
.288 AVG (.224 vs LHP)
.850 OPS (.640 vs LHP)

Pena vs LHP
.291 AVG (.234 vs RHP)
.880 OPS (.740 vs RHP)

It would be absolutely ridiculuous to put Jon Papelbon into the rotation ahead of Matt Clement. Absolutely nonsensical. Papelbon, as of today, is probably not ready to start in the MLB. He just doesn't have enough secondary pitches to survive. Once teams figured out his fastball, he'd be completely screwed. It is essential to his long term development that he gets time to get his splitter working well, as an effective second pitch, before he assumes a role as an MLB level starter. For all his problems, Matt Clement still has MLB stuff. He starts well ahead of Papelbon, who probably should start the year in AAA.

Jeebus, I forgot about Clement (probably a subconscious desire to do so). OK, so Clement is #5, but if Papes is at AAA to start and not with the parent club, the question of sport starter / long relief would stand.

Great deal for the Sox. A 24 year old outfielder with power who can fill the void when Trot is struggling, or when facing a lefty. Bronson, it's sad to see ya go buddy, but I like this deal very much.

I agree that Clement has to start ahead of Paps - no question there.

I disagree that he should start the year in Pawtucket. I think going to the bullpen, getting used to major league hitters, taking the occasional spot start is going to do a lot more for him development wise. This move clears up the logjam and nets us a great platoon partner for Trot. I love this deal.

The only part of this deal that I don't like is that combined with the Juan Gone signing, it looks like they are making preparations for not having Manny around and I don't like that.

God speed Bronson and thanks for everything, you will be missed.

I'm very upset about this. It's a good trade, and that's a big part of why. I loved Arroyo, and I loved that he gave the FO a hometown discount to stay here. I'm most upset that they didn't even let him pitch another game in a Sox uniform before breaking the gentleman's agreement they had with him.

Long Live Number 61.

IIRC, PECOTA loves Wily Mo going forward. This is a great deal now, as is (especially considering Arroyo was likely to top out as a middle reliever this year)- but in a couple years could be an all-time steal. I was really, really pessimistic on Arroyo going forward.

I really really like this move. What Pena doesn't have in plate discipline he makes up by hitting for tremendous power. And he's only 24. Not only will he make a good platoon mate for Trot, but he's a great insurance policy for Nixon should he get hurt ... and of all our regular players we know he's the most injury-prone.

I just love how flexible this makes us. Personally, I'm hoping Pena plays more than just in a strict platoon role with Trot, because he's just so much better than a Gabe Kapler-type. To me this opens up the possibility that on some days Papi plays 1B, Manny DH's while Wily Mo and Trot play right and left respectively, with Youks sliding over to 3B.

I'm pretty sure they're making preparations for Trot not being around. Expecting more than 50 ABs from Juan Gone is fantasy, I think. That was more of a low risk gamble move. I wouldn't make much of it.

This is great. I'm a huge Pena fan, and I never liked Arroyo to begin with. What a great deal they just made. I'm not worried about pitching depth (as someone said) because we still have Schill, Beckett, Clement, Wells, Wakes, and Papelbon. Six starters is plenty for now. We got a 24 year old outfielder that we control for three years, and has the potential to crush the ball for an extra pitcher who was going to be our long reliever this year. Great deal.

I wholeheartedly concur with all the praise this deal is receiving. While Saturn Nuts was a fan favorite and loved by many (god, put Piney on a suicide watch), this team had a log jam in the rotation, and needed someone to platoon with Trot. WMP looks like a good fit in Fenway, and can kill LHPs.

Great move. Me likey Pena!

Pena's development really got effed up by the Major League contract the Yankees gave him when he first signed. That forced him to be on a ML roster these last three seasons (that's why the Yankees traded him in the first place -- he was out of options at age 20), when he could've used some development time in AAA.

He seems to understand, however, that his free swinging ways are not good for him. You don't see that with a lot of young guys who hit HRs -- they think their power makes it acceptable for them to swing at everything.

Somebody posted this over at SOSH and it's encouraging in terms of Pena's midnset:



Dayton Daily News

On the comment about the name, it's way more fun if you pronounce it with a long I sound.

Fanboy perspective: Sad to see someone like Arroyo go, because of his part in 2004 and because of his realtionship with the city and its fans. Few players come to Boston and are willing to take a contract BMV to stay, let alone express *in sincerity* the desire to close out a career there. Arroyo was rare in that sense. (FWIW, so was Millar, so I could just be ignoring the downward trending similarities.)

Stathead perspective: Career OBP of .303 and a 6% BB% in 2005 not encouraging, but 19 HR in 311 AB is impressive. Arroyo's peripherals have been declining since that suspension coming out of TB, and it is visually evident that his delivery mechanics have changed enough to eliminate his effectiveness with those breaking pitches. He just seemed unable to fool them.

Lucky for us, I guess, that Bronson pitched great yesterday against the O's. This really does make sense in a lot of ways, what with the young arms on the farm and the impending decision at RF. This also gives the Sox a bunch more options with shuffling the lineup and resting certain players, not to mention the obvious platoon with Trot this year.

Well, maybe Bronson will sign my copy of Covering the Bases when I go see the Cards and Reds in April...

Yes, Weapons of Mass Power are quite deadly. Especially to lefties.

I'm skeptical and I mean aside from 'Hot Stove Cool Music' losing some talent.

We trade the starting pitcher that led the Sox last season in quality starts (20) for a free swinging platoon player. Further, Arroyo really wanted to be a Red Sox. Re: 'In a unique twist, Arroyo's agent, Gregg Clifton, advised his client against taking what he felt was a discounted contract.' Source of quote

Message: 'Thanks for the lowball contract making you more marketable for us to deal you Mr. Arroyo, now here's the door.' Let's see how long we go before the next Sox player signs for a 'home town discount'.

Looks like another good deal by that brainy Red Sox front office.
Pena hits LHP the way Trot hits RHP, as another poster showed with stats.
Arroyo was clearly expendable, and his contract made him very attractive for getting the upper hand in a trade like this. Pena was probably sought by a couple of other teams. And this gives Papelbon a pitching slot.
You have to like Stern and Pena as OF backups--both young guys with upside.
And Pena provides exceptional RHd power--maybe a long-term Manny replacement--a year or two out, if he can learn how to hit RHd pitching.

I just hope Bronson doesn't let GABP crush him. I hope for his sake he somehow winds up in Petco or something. I hope for our sake Pena can manage to develop into more of a ballplayer and not just a HR hitter.

Wow wow WOW! I'm still in shock over this. I thought Clement would have been out the door before Arroyo. I'm going to miss the little bugger.....he was fun to watch. Good luck with the hapless Reds Broson, you are going to need it.

For the pessimists:

Wells = Old, injury risk and could be a clubhouse cancer.

Shilling = Old, could be more hot air instead of hot pitching.

Beckett= probably okay, but may burn himself out early plus shoulder issues.

Clement= ????

Wakefield= Wakefield

Papelbon= we've seen some brilliance but he's really still unproven as MLB starter.

Jon Lester= not ready for primetime.

Clemens= Don't hold your breath or expect wonders even if he does come.

My point is that the rotation could collapse leaving us with Wakefield, alone, again. I would have kept Arroyo at least for the first half of the season and have sent Pap to the pen or AAA. He is still a kid afterall and Arroyo has proven himself a starter--his spring training starts IMHO were no indicator of anything and may have been exacerbated by a lack of depth behind the plate.

But true, Cornroyyo did seem to have trouble with runners on, and with pitching from the stretch. Should've given him one more chance to bean A-rod though. Watch him end up in the Bronx now as Jarrod Wright's replacement at the July deadline.

Count me among those in support of this trade (Sorry Piney.) Bronson wasn't getting any better and he was a heart attack waiting to happen against lefties with runners on. I appreciate his contributions to the '04 team and I hope all works out for him in Cincy.

Just to piggy-back on JtB's suggestion that PECOTA loves Wily Mo going forward, it really does. Here are his projections for the next three seasons.

2006: .283 .346 .566
2007: .290 .354 .578
2008: .291 .364 .604

in terms of VORP
2006: 24
2007: 27.9
2008: 34.3

though his upside projections are much better than this ... topping out at 47.4 in 2009

and WARP

2006: 3.2
2007: 3.8
2008: 4.4

There's just so much to like here.

I don't think we should get too carried away with the "hometown discount" that Arroyo supposedly took. At most, he gave up a couple of million dollars over the life of the deal, and that's only if he pitched extremely well over the next three seasons.

In exchange for giving up a chance to get a little more each year in arb, he got the security of $11.25 million guaranteed, whether he pitches well or gets hurt and never pitches again. He didn't exactly get taken to the cleaners here. It was a deal that benefited both sides. He gave up a little money for a little security.

Quality starts is quite possibly the stupidest stat ever invented. It's totally meaningless. It's definition is rather arbitrary, and a "quality start" itself isn't particularly impressive. Bronson Arroyo just wasn't that good a pitcher last year.

Furthermore, if the quotes provided by HBM are true...watch out. Wily Mo Pena+patience=A helluva hitter.

I think we all need to temper our enthusiasm a bit. This could be a great deal -- it could also be a stinker.

I disagree that Arroyo is regressing. I think he is a pretty consistent low to mid 4 ERA guy, and I don't see anything that makes me think he is going to decline or improve dramatically in the next few years. He is what he is, a pretty dependable 4-5 starter who can also be used in the bullpen. He's a decent commodity and a bargain IMO for a pitching-strapped NL team. I would not be shocked to see him pitch sub-4.00 in the DH-less NL.

Pena certainly could be a diamond in the rough. But there are mixed signals on his defense. I too have seen a couple of good reports but there are also horrendous ones as well.



http://www.daytondailynews.com/search/cont...224redsweb.html



http://redlegs.mlblogs.com/redlegs_gazette...5/09/index.html



http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/..._13_205_pm_edt/

So, IF he learns how to field and IF he learns to strike out less, this could be a great deal and he could be a monster hitter. But if he doesn't improve in those two areas, this will not be pretty.

I think this is a really unfair characterization of the deal. You're cherrypicking a stat that makes Arroyo look better, and more valuable than he really was to us. Then shortchanging Pena, who is much more than just a platoon partner for Trot. He's a young power-hitter with the potential to be a full-time starter next season.

Lastly, baseball is a business, and the Red Sox FO has continuously shown that they are not sentimental about their players. They didn't trade Arroyo for chopped liver, just for the sake of clearing up the SP logjam, they got a really good, young player in return. A player that can improve our team now and for the future.