Jonathan Papelbon named American League Rookie of the Month


In 13 relief appearances for the Red Sox, Papelbon threw 14.1 IP of scoreless baseball while striking out 14 and walking just two batters. The 25-year-old right hander converted all ten of his save opportunities to become the Major League leader in that category. Last season, appearing in a variety of roles for Boston, Papelbon went 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 34.0 IP. In 13 games this season Papelbon has recorded a strikeout in all but two of them. In Boston's 7-6 loss to Toronto on April 21, the Mississippi State University product threw 2.1 IP of one-hit scoreless ball to help extend the game to its eventual 12th inning conclusion. On April 29 the native of Baton Rouge, Louisiana struck out the side to beat the Devil Rays 9-6. The win by Papelbon marks the second time a Red Sox has captured the Rookie of the Month award; Kevin Youkilis won the honor in May of 2004.

If it was anyone but Paps the award would be worthless. Congrats Paps!

He deserved it and easily ran away with it.

Thats one. Let's see if he can sweep it this year.

I'm surprised he's still eligible for the award.

Great work Papelbon!

Paps is young and Mariano Rivera is old. I like that.

Yeah I didn't know he was still eligible - ROY anyone?

I wonder who the runner-up was.

Sports Illustrated had a good sidebar article about guys who killed in April, then never did anything again. So, let's not count the Rivera chickens yet!

Just think of where the Sox would be without him. Congrats Paps!!!!

'Gratz to Paps Can't say I wasn't expecting this.

Well I don't think he'll be a closer forever anyways so I don't want him to be Rivera past this year. But taking into account last year's success I think its pretty obvious hes going to be damn good. I mean so far he has an ERA of 1.82 over 49.1 innings in his pro career.

Paps is ROMonth for April? And the sun rises in the East. No brainer, folks. It's early, but he looks like a ROY to me.

Yep, he's eligible for the ROY. Pitched less than 50 innings last year and was on the active roster for less than 45 days prior to 9/1 call-ups.

Ahh, young Papelbon. It seems like only yesterday you were hauling pick back packs out to the bullepn.



Now we see you and know the game is over.

Congratulations Paps.....much deserved

Hope he can keep it up

That's one.

I had to do a power point presentation this week. The final slide was a picture of Papelbon pumping his fist after a save. The caption just said Game Over. I got a standing ovation.
Atta Boy Paps!

That's what I was going to say.

What if his May consists of another 15+ scoreless innings?

Absolutely well deserved....way to go Paps!

Good story on Papelbon by Murray Chass in this morning's NYT:

Unexpected Closer Does as He Expects

HE calls it confidence; some call it cocky. He is Jonathan Papelbon, and he's the best thing that has happened to the Boston Red Sox since their magical postseason run in 2004.

Papelbon is the Red Sox' closer, and he carried his perfect April into May in Boston's first game against the Yankees on Monday night. He did not qualify for a save in the 7-3 victory, but he extended his streak of not giving up a run to 14 games and 15 1/3 innings.

Before last night's second game of the series was rained out, Papelbon was named the American League rookie of the month. He was asked if he could have imagined being 10 for 10 in save opportunities.

"Yeah, of course," he said. "I set my goals high, man. If you told me I'd have 10 saves and not given up a run, I'd have believed you. That's just the way I go about it. It's not cocky; its just confidence. It's me going out there knowing who I am, knowing the pitcher that I am, and going out and executing."

It's the Curse of AL Rookie of the Month Award!!!!!!

Oh, well.

We'll get 'em in June!

Even our greatest weapon can't break us free of Toronto owning us...

He also won the following....

BOSTON -- For his perfect 10 during his first month as the closer of the Red Sox, Jonathan Papelbon was recognized on Thursday as Major League Baseball's Delivery Man of the Month for April. The award, sanctioned by Major League Baseball and sponsored by DHL, recognizes the most outstanding relief pitcher during each month of the regular season.

Lot of May left. Cinco de Mayo mañana!

Si, si.

Es posible, adivino.

Pero esperaba que el rayo a cero continuara.

(Obviously, I used an online translator to do that.)

There was discussion this morning about the possibility of Papelbon's winning the Cy Young Award. While that discussion is obviously premature, SSA made a good post in that thread that I'd like to answer:



I think that most people know that BP PECOTA tagged Papelbon for a 6-6 record and a 4.94 ERA, quite different from what he's actually done.

So I sat cross-eyed looking at that PECOTA card, trying to figure out how these stats yield a projected 4.94 ERA in 2006:

Level ERA

A.....6.33
A.....2.64
AA....2.48
AAA...2.92
MLB...2.86

OK, here's the deal. Papelbon was drafted at age 22, and he had a rough start. He was old for A-ball the next year, so his 2.64 ERA was heavily inflated by BP in computing its MLE. Those last three stops are all his age 24 2005 stats, and most of his time was spent at Portland, and age 24 is a little old for AA ball.

BP heavily weights MLEs by age. That's inappropriate for Papelbon, who needed development at A ball after college. If those AA stats weren't discounted for age, his MLE would be in the 3.50 range, not the 4.05 BP assesses. His AAA MLE was 3.38. Almost all of his MiLB work was as a starter, with only ten relief appearances in three years.

Papelbon's ERA was 2.86 last year, but his FIP was 4.21. This year his ERA is miniscule, but his FIP is 1.97, suggesting he's been lucky (and I think that we knew that). He does, however, look better pitching in relief than he did starting.

If he were starting, he'd probably put up an ERA around his MLE and FIP as a starter...maybe a 3.50 or so if he worked only 5-6 innings per start.

As a relief pitcher, that 1.97 FIP almost looks for real...except for one itty-bitty thing: he's going to start yielding home runs sometime. If one looks at his tendency to allow around one home run per nine innings as a starter and discounts a little for relief pitching, it's not out of line to add another run to that early-season FIP as a gauge to where he'll end up for ERA.

Let's suggest, then, that an ERA of 3.00 is his true talent level as a closer. We're a quarter through the season. 3 x 3 + 0.42 = 9.42; 9.42/4 = 2.36

What are the chances of a closer with a 2.36 ERA winning the Cy Young?

I'd have to say it's doubtful. Looking at last year's stats, that would put Papelbon just a notch below Street's, Rivera's and Wagner's 2005 performances as a relief pitcher. That would earn him Cy Young votes, but not the award.



IF the current FIP of 1.97 is his true talent level, and IF he got lucky for one more quarter-season where he duplicated his first-quarter stats, we're talking an ERA in the 1.25 range with 50+ saves. That would put him in serious contention--but he still wouldn't be a shoo-in.

And that's not a reasonable assessment of his talent level, just an attempt to fudge a reasonable best-case scenario.

***

I'm very happy with Papelbon as our closer. I think that projecting him as a Cy Young Award winner is a stretch, but that projecting him to receive a vote or two is reasonable.

It certainly doesn't help his chances that probably 8-10 of his 50+ possible saves will be contributing to 8-10 wins for Beckett. If Beckett goes 20+ wins and keeps his ERA in the 3.00 area, he will win the Cy Young over Paps, unless Paps keeps his ERA around 1.00 or less somehow.

Wow. I saw the title of the trash-canned thread: "Papelbon for Cy Young?" and wondered: Is Theo about to pull off the most stupendous trade in history?

Cy's numbers are indeed impressive, five hundred wins and all that. No doubt he's a proven commodity. But his last two seasons were subpar:

1910 Age 43 7-10, 2.54
1911 Age 44 4-5, 3.71

Maybe JHB could run the PECOTA numbers projected out to age 139. To me, Cy appears to be a bit of a risk. Pitchers at that age have a history of arm problems (rigor mortis, for instance). I just dont think we should be giving up on a good young arm to get a rent-a-veteran.

/end farcical mode

Clyde, the trouble with using PECOTA is that Young's 20 most comparable pitchers all took the easier route of retirement prior to or concurrent with death. Cy Young, being a special case, demands a different treatment.

Instead of PECOTA, I took the approach of using direct linear regression from Young's peak season. Young had a career-high 36 wins and an excellent 1.93 ERA at age 25 in 1892, so I used that year as the origin for my regression.

Not unexpectedly, it looks as if Cy Young has passed his best years. The regression equation was

Wins = 66.8 - (1.26 x age)

implying that Young could no longer have been expected to contribute past age 52. R-squared was 71.8%, and we have 99% significance.

But...

Although Young's ability to pitch long enough to earn wins declined steadily with age, his ability to prevent runs gradually increased with age. Again starting at age 25 and continuing to the end of his career, we have

ERA = 3.55 - (0.025 x age)

implying that, at age 139 (his age this season), Young would have surrendered practically no earned runs at all, with a projected ERA of 0.05. (R-squared 4%, F-statistic 0.72 for statisticians). While Cy Young no longer has the endurance to throw 100 pitches, the stats say that he still might be a contributor in key spots from the bullpen.

If one considers the impact the presence of the legendary Cy Young would have on today's players, such a low projected ERA is not at all out of the question. Consider it all: the sight--the sound--even the scent on the wind would speak of a different era, of tricks and skills long thought lost and buried in the sands of time. Suffice to say that it would take a brave batter even to stand in the batter's box against Cy Young today. If such a thing be possible, I can imagine Cy Young putting out the side without a pitch being thrown.

***

Upon reflection, there's only one reason I can see for Anni's sending the trade thread to the Jim Ed Trash Can: Cy Young is still a free agent this season!

Yes, believe it or not, I checked Cot's Contracts and MLB.com and Cy Young is available to the highest bidder. If one considers the situation fully, although it's understandable that he'd be reluctant to move far from his Ohio home given his age, his sense of destiny and what it would mean to bring Boston one more World Series win might override his reluctance to come to Boston for one more season. Working something into his contract where he wouldn't have to travel with the team unless he were expected to pitch might be important.

Cy Young once said, "I had a good arm and legs. When I would go to spring training, I would never touch a ball for three weeks. Just would do a lot of walking and running. I never did any unnecessary throwing. I figured the old arm had just so many throws in it, and there wasn't any use wasting them." Just because he didn't make it to Spring Training doesn't mean that he's not ready; he's just not wasting his throws. And you know that any pitcher who pitched over 400 innings five seasons in his MLB career is willing to go out there and throw until his arm falls off, if need be, if that's what it takes to win. When you consider all of that--as well as considering the veteran leadership he could offer to younger pitchers such as Schilling and Wells--I think that we shouldn't waste another minute.

Theo, get set to travel to Ohio with a video of our fans imploring Cy Young to come back just one more time. This is the stuff that dreams are made of.

The bolded portion caused some severe cubicle laughter.

Your analysis discounts the advances in technology in the 95 years since Cy last toed the rubber. What about Tommy John surgery? That ought to make him good as new. Maybe even give him a "live arm," even if the remainder of him, um, isn't.

Contractually, I think the Braves would still have the rights to him, since he played for them last, and prior to the abolition of the reserve clause. He would need to play out his option year with them before he became a free agent. So let's go, Theo: Get on the horn to Schuerholz and work out a deal.

Papelbon (and cash) for Cy Young. You heard it here first.

Why should we have to throw in cash? Sure, Papelbon's salary is higher, but once it's adjusted for inflation in accordance with the terms of the CBA, the money shouldn't be an issue at all.

You know, when you put it this way, I wonder if Denton True Young might even be more of a key to the 2006 season than Juan Alberto Gonzalez Vazquez.

And there is no doubt that Juan Gonzalez has been a key contributor.

Let's do this deal.

But the Braves failed to postmark Cy Young's contract offer in time in 1980 (not to mention a few other years), and we can use the precedent of Carlton Fisk's 1981 case to release him from his reserve clause obligations.

Besides, Cy Young played last for the Boston Rustlers, not the Braves.

There's no need for a trade here--we have them dead to rights.

On a serious note... could it be Paps takes this for the 2nd month in a row?

So far in May:

0-1 • 1.29 era • 4 for 4 in Save Opps • 0.71 whip • .160 baa

It's possible, the rookies aren't doing too spectacularly this month:

Batting - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...x=51&qual=false

Hurling - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchi...x=51&qual=false

Edit: Forgot to sort for May.

Right now, I'd also be looking at:

Justin Verlander
-and-
Casey Janssen

... being ahead of Paps

Francisco Liriano has an outside shot too depending on how he throws for the rest of the month.

It's been a down month for Paps...

Down? No. Lots of rainouts and blowouts? Yes.

He just doesn't have the IP this month. No biggie. But, the worthless eff gave up an ER this month. DFA HIM!

My vote goes for Verlander. And I wouldn't mind seeing Papelbon pitch two innings sometime in his next few appearences. A few days off. Then three IP. Then a few days off. Then, well, who needs Roger?

There was an article in the metro today about hwo Papelbon said he likes closing, and wouldn't really care if he ever started again. I'm pretty sure we'll see him in that role until at least the end of this year. And even after that, if he continues to dominate, don't fix what's not broken, especially if Hansen looks like he might be able to start.

Quotes in the globe too: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...one_his_skills/

My first impression about what I bolded was what a great attitude Papelbon has. But then, if a pitcher has all the tools to be great as either a starter or reliever, unless like somebody else posted, we're looking at another Mariano Rivera here, I'd rather see him eventually start. Wouldn't he also, maybe he could be another Roger Clemens. OK, Papelbon's just scratching the surface on his career, getting way ahead here, long, long ways to go, but will be fun to watch. All impressions I've had are that he does have a great attitude though.

I agree. People are getting awfully high on Papelbon. Is there going to be a corresponding low if he hits a rough patch?

He's been great, but it's only been 2 months.

It'd have to be a shockingly rough patch to develop a low that corresponds to how high I am on Papelbon right now

Let's relax here.

No kidding.

We're over 1/4 done with the season, he still hasn't blown a save, and his ERA is a gaudy 0.40.

I keep waiting for him to come back to earth, but so far he's shown no signs of doing so.

I know that he probably will, but who says he HAS to come back to earth?

Here's to Paps staying in orbit!!

Judging by the way he was acting in the dugout last night (like a 3 year old), he doesn't seem to feeling any pressure.

Maybe he just doesn't know any better?

Anyone realize the history we could see? I read about it elsewhere. Right now has more saves than baserunners allowed. Currently, Papelbon has allowed 17 baserunners (13 H, 3 BB, 1 HBP) and has 19 saves. Eck did it in 1990, thassit.

That is an impressive statistic. All I know is that this guy if he kept this pace for the entire year and was this dominant would easily win the ROY and probably the CY young award.

The pitch that struck out Glaus makes me think that Paps could be one of the best closers ever. The pitch that Overbay clobbered to CF makes me realize that Paps still needs to improve the location of his pitches if he wants to be ranked with the best.

BTW, at the time I was really surprised that Tek didn't call for the splitter against Overbay. They seemed to have him set up perfectly for it.