Now that we know who Theo and Co. is interested in come the offseason, and we know who's traded at the deadline and least and most likely to re-sign with said team I thought it might be nice to discuss some questions leading into the offseason and take a look at how our payroll might shake out:

1.) The Red Sox Payroll

Who do we pick up, who do we not?

-Keith Foulke (AAV of 6.75) has a 7.5 club option with a 1.5 million buyout or a 3.75 million player option. Can we still buy him out or does he have that 3.75 million option available? If we buy him out does he get the 1.5 mil AND his option?

-Trot Nixon (AAV or 6.5) is pretty much easily replaced. I love Nixon, he gave the Red Sox everything he had from the time he was drafted on but he's lost a step in the field, a tick on his arm strength and a lot of pop at the plate. WMP could be reasonably expected to improve on defense and give us a lot at the plate.

-Tim Wakefield (How does AAV work? He's got neverending options of 4 million, so let's go with that.) How injured is Wake? Does he want to come back? He's got a ring... is he best suited in the pen? In the rotation? IMO he's a brilliant reliever and a decent starter... well worth 4 million. We'll just have to see what he wants to do, and how our rotation looks.

-Mark Loretta (AAV of 2.635) is a pretty decent player but I think we can get some draft pick(s) for him. Would he take arbitration? Would some team go for him anyway because he's a "veteran presence" or some old timey nonsense? I think so, and I also think Dustin Pedroia at LEAST matches his offensive production and is light years better in the field.

-Mike Timlin (AARP of 3.5... oops, I made a typo ) Timlin is a heck of a reliever, but he still allows a ton of baserunners. Does he want to come back? Do we want him back?

-Alex Gonzalez (AAV of 3 million) It'd cost somewhere around the same money to re-sign him... but can we make a push for Lugo? Do we want Seabass back? I don't rally want him to return... but if we spend our free agent dollars on Oswalt, then we don't have much choice.

-David Wells... c'mon, he's GOT to retire...

-Rudy Seanez... his option for 2007 is only 2.1 mil.

-Alex Cora, his contract is up... does he like it here? I know the Sox brass are high on his as a sub, but will he try to go into the FA market and get a big payday?

-Doug Mirabelli... Doug seems like a hell of a guy, but can't we do better? Isn't it time to find a young guy to back up Tek and move over to the starter role in the next couple years?

Who do we try to pick up in FA?

-Roy Oswalt. Reports are that he is pretty miffed at Houston and he is either not going to return or try to squeeze every penny from them. Obviously Theo likes Roy, he tried his damnedest to get him this deadline but it was all for naught. I figure since Oswalt is making 11 million this year that he will want something along the lines of 5 years 65 million. Of course that depends on how the market is set. I think we can try to swing it, especially if we backload it or get him to defer some money, which he may do for a winning team. If not, we can go to out backup plan:

-Julio Lugo. IMO Lugo is only a backup plan because I do not think we can sign both he and Oswalt. Lugo will want something along the lines of 4 years at like 8-10 million per. He'd be a nice fixture in the lineup for a few seasons and unlike most positions it's especially important to have the same MI for as long as you can. Lugo would be most likely overpriced, but what can you do? The rest of the possible FA SS crop is uuuuuugly.

Of course, many other FA's will be available. But as difficult as it is to predict the major FA guys it's more difficult to pick the smaller ones.

Who do we trade/trade for?
The Red Sox are in a good position for 2007. They don't have any large holes on the team and they have a good infrastructure. No need to do anything drastic.

Manny Ramirez- Trading him gets easier and easier (one would think) as the years in his contract go down... but Manny has been tremendous and even fielding well. I say we keep him. Also, Manny's AAV will stay the same, but he is defering 4 million next year, which only makes his immediate hit a comfortable 14 million.

Matt Clement- Is there ANY way to trade Clement and not have to take all of his contract? He seems completely done in Boston.

Andruw Jones- The Sox obviously like him, but he is uber expensive. I think if we got him it'd either be if we traded Manny (not likely) or we lost out on all our big FA targets. Crisp isn't suited for CF, but depending on his progress, and a number of other factors... he may get moved.

A short stop replacement of Seabass- Like I said, the FA market is ugly, and we may not want to trust Gonzalez for another season. If we lose out on Lugo (the only realiable SS in the whole FA pool) then do we make a trade?

The Red Sox roster with AAV. (Note, I didn't re-sign any players but I did cut Foulke... I just don't think he comes back at all. He will probably retire in my mind.)

SP- Curt Schilling (12.625 Mil)
SP- Josh Beckett (10 Mil)
SP- Jon Lester (League min, LM)
SP- Jon Papelbon (LM) Yeah, I think we coax Paps back into the starting role.
SP-

Matt Clement- (8.5 Mil)
Tim Wakefield? (4 Mil)

Wake and Clement are tough... obviously hardly anyone wants Clement back, and Wake may not have a set spot... immagine Oswalt in that rotation though. Best starters in baseball? Possibly.

RP- Julian Tavarez (3.35 Mil)
RP- Rudy Seanez (2.1 Mil) (2.1 Mil option or .2 million buyout)
RP- Manny Delcarmen (LM)
RP- Craig Hansen (1M)
RP-
RP-
CL-

Note that we could have E-Mart in this bullpen, as well as some FA lefty relievers, not a LOOGY, but someone who can get it done.

C- Jason Varitek (10 Mil)
1B- Kevin Youkilis (LM)
2B-
3B- Mike Lowell (8 Mil)
SS-
LF- Manny Ramirez (21 Mil)
CF- Coco Crisp (5.2 Mil)
RF- Wily Mo Pena (???, this will be his first season of arb. Could be a couple million.)
DH- David Ortiz (13 Mil)

I say DPed is the 2B and we need to find a SS. Also, if the FO negatively re-evaluates Crisp then we may need a new SS too.

C-
CI-
MI-
OF-
OF-

Obviously there's no way to predict the bench (or any of this stuff) but it could contain Murphy, Cora, etc. IMO it would be important to get a CI who is a natural 3B and an OF who can play 1B. Lowell is good, but seems more likely to need a break or go into a slump than Youks. A LH bat off the bench as that OF/1B who is more offense than defense would be nice. Murphy could be the LH defensive replacement and we could get a young catcher to spell Tek and possibly slide over in a couple years. Defense first IMO.

There you have it, yeah it's early... but I just love predicting moves. Already that Sox payroll is 100.375 towards the luxury tax and I didn't count Pena and I probably missed some people...

The Sox have a lot of decisions to make. Paps in the rotation? A new FA prize like Oswalt? Lugo for 4-5 years... What do you guys think we ought to do?

I don't think Oswalt is a FA. Anyways, here's what I'd like to see:

C-Varitek
1B-Youkilis
2B-Pedroia
SS-Lugo
3B-Lowell
LF-Ramirez
CF-Crisp
RF-Pena
DH-Ortiz

SP1-Schilling
SP2-Beckett
SP3-Lester
SP4-Papelbon
SP5-Clement

LRP/Spot Start-Wakefield
LRP/Spot Start-DiNardo
MRP-Seanez
MRP-Tavarez
SU-Delcarmen
CL-Hansen

Another possibility: trade Lowell for nothing so the Sox can dump most of his contract---then:

-Youkilis to 3B
-Ortiz to 1B
-Ramirez to DH
-Crisp to LF
-Murphy/WMP to CF
-Other of Murphy/WMP to RF


I know there's a lot of time left, but I'm really intrigued by what next year's team can roll out there.

Oswalt IS a FA, I looked it up... give me a little credit.

Interesting idea about Ortizzle to 1B though. It would improve the OF a ton but make the infield defense suspect.

Since a groundball is more likely to be a hit than a flyball... I think INF defense is more important... I dunno about that idea. Hmmm.

No he's not. He's a FA after the 2007 season.

A lot of people are assuming Pedroia will step right in and replace either Gonzalez or Loretta seamlessly. He'll be a rookie. He may do well (I hope so!) but there have been plenty of rookies who don't meet expectations.

I'd like to see an All-Star caliber closer or setup guy come here. I prefer to see Papelbon getting more innings as a starter if possible, and Timlin, as good as he is, is bound to feel the effect of age sooner or later.

Cot's fooled me! Grrrrrr.

The fact that his contract runs out (an arb. avoiding deal, not a FA contract) and the fact that Olney said: "[Oswalt] will absolutely squeeze every dollar out of the next contract negotiations, after all this trade stuff occurred, as retribution, but not just for the sake of the money. He's very, very competitive"

I'm not sold on Hansen being a closer. I think we've realized how much better it is to have a guy like Papelbon closing out games. I'm not saying he should stay the closer. I'm just saying we need a reliable guy closing out games for us. You can't win without a closer. Rivera with the Yankees. Foulke in 04. A dependable closer is a huge asset to a team.

Forget any ideas you have about David Ortiz getting regular time at 1B. He's a DH not only because of his defensive shortcomings, but because of the knee trouble he had when playing 1B regularly in the past. As he ages, it becomes even dumber to think of him as a starter at 1B. This is the new "let's play Bill Mueller at 2b!", apparently.

Well said. I can't believe people would even consider putting him out on the field & add stress to those knees. He's a DH who can play a serviceable 1B in a pinch.

Just because Yahoo has him listed as 1B (like Mueller as 3B, 2B) doesn't mean you can actually build a team like that.


On another note, I'd like to see Loretta offered arb - and hopefully we'll get a draft pick. If he accepts, that's fine too: he can groom Pedroia. If not, Cora/Pedroia it is. That's assuming Dustin looks OK in his September call-up.

Why on Earth would anyone want Seanez back?

If the dollars are right I expect Theo to sign Agon to a two year extention possibly very soon.

This would make a great offseason thread............in november.

I don't get all the talk about Ortiz at first, how about Wily Mo?

Have him learn it in winter ball and in spring training, he has a lot of athletic ability and it is a relatively easy position to play. It will be easier to find a UFA OF (or bring back Trot) than it will be to find a 1B.

Paps is staying at closer. I expect Theo to sign someone like Lilly as a 4th starter type and Pedroia and Lugo to man the 2B/SS positions.

His numbers indicate he could've been an MLB starter LAST year. I mean, anything can happen, but he's been performing at an MLB level for 2 years now.

After Youk, you'd think people would start giving the numbers a little bit of credence.

I think Theo needs to make a strong push to sign Eric Gagne to a cheap incentive laden contract this offseason. I think Papelbon needs to be given a shot in the rotation. If Gagne can return to be half as good as he was, than the Sox are in great shape. Hansen should start the season as an 8th inning guy and take over the closers role should Gagne get injured. Now in the perfect time to buy low on a guy like Gagne. It could potentially be a low risk/high reward type situation. As far as I know, there aren't any other closers available through Free Agency. If the Sox are able to pick up someone like Andruw Jones, maybe Crisp can be dealt for some bullpen help. I wouldn't mind picking up a guy like Mussina either. Not only would that make the Sox better, but it would make the Yankees a lot worse. Of course, I'd rather have Oswalt or Zito.

Red Sox are a better team with Papelbon in the rotation IF IF IF there is someone good enough to replace him as a closer. Right now I am not sure Hansen is taht guy, but I am all for Papelbon being in the rotation. He is much more valuable there than in the pen.

I think the Red Sox should also try to keep AGonz for another year. This guy has really come around and is playing great baseball on BOTH ends. Since the end of May, hes been hitting pretty consistantly. I've been more impressed with him this year than Loretta, to be honest. Plus, it is so much fun to watch him play SS. I can't remember a season where I've had this much fun watching the Sox play defense.

Great thread idea......



Agree. Only a 0.2 million buyout, he should go plus Tavarez is signed for one more year and there's no space for another mediocre washed up reliever. But on the other hand, for 2 million you might not get anything better than Rudy, so who knows....





I don't think there's a way. There's no trade value here unless you want a bottom of the rung prospect and pick up maybe 6-7 million of his salary. Unfortunately we have to keep him hope his body and mind are straight after so much rest, trot him out as our fifth starter and hope for the best.



I actually prefer Seabass at a lesser price over Lugo. But since he's putting together a decent season, he's not going to ask for just a one year contract. Let's face it 3 mill for just a one year is a deal for the sox, keeping him depends on how much more he asks.

Remember Cabrera, good player, but would you want to pay the 4 year, 30 mill or so the Angels gave him?

The whole issue about the contract with Oswalt is another discussion, but the fact that he will "try to squeeze every penny out of the Astros" may be shortsighted. He did give his agent the greenlight to negotiate a new contract with them. Just because of one trade deadline, I doubt that changes. Especially if he likes it in Houston, has kids that like it there, etc.

Will he have to give back the bulldozer if he leaves?

Are they going to have much money to shop with? They'll lose Wells' and Nixon's contracts. They'll be done paying for Renteria. Seems like with the good contracts they have (Beckett, Lester, Papelbon, Hansen, Delcarmen, Youkilis, Pena) there should be some money floating around for a pricey starter or closer (depending on where you put Papelbon).

I thought Renteria had a four year contract, 10 million per year. The Sox pay 4 of the 10 million for 2006, 2007 and 2008. Right?




Interesting, I had totally forgotten about this. Initially it was in the air on what Paps would do next year, but due to his effectiveness I think that question has answered itself. Barring a disaster (Paps pulling a Brad Lidge), Paps could put up one the best seasons by a closer ever. Unless they were to get a proven closer, how can you not keep him in the bullpen in the near future?

Not that Oswalt is a FA this coming offseason, but this reminds me: If he were a FA looking for the most money and a chance to win... Then the Yankees still have the big edge on us, because of the money. IMO this makes it paramount that we acquire players of Oswalt's caliber (especially pitchers) through trades. While they can eat more money in trades, we have the big edge on them in terms of our farm system and less expensive major leaguers. Once you trade for a top talent with maybe one or two years left on a contract, then you can negotiate a reasonable extension. The Beckett trade is a perfect example of this. Waiting until the offseason to sign a top FA is inviting the Yankees (or Mets, etc.) to either outbid us or force us to overpay and by overpaying lose our flexibility to sign other FA.

I'm not sure how accurate or original that view is...
But does it make any sense?

Well put fourth base, I agree 100%. It seems the philosophy was once not to over pay and let the market dictate a FA's worth. Now it seems like they may have taken a 180 on that since over-paying for Clement, and losing Damon and Pedro.

That's a great long term plan to operate from if you ask me. Like you said, take a guy like Beckett. If they wait for free agency for a guy like him they end up having to bid against NY and everyone else and end up paying him 6 years / 75MM.

trade: Matt Clement, Mike Lowell to PHI for Pat Burrell and Jason Jaramillo
trade: Covelli Crisp, Javy Lopez to COL for Jason Jennings, Jeremy Affeldt, Jeff Baker
sign: Mark Mulder – 4/$42M + 5th year team option
sign: Torii Hunter – 4/$44M + 5th year team option
resign: Alex Gonzalez – 2/$8 + team option
sign: Dotel/RHP – 2/$7 + team option which vests at $7M if he closes a certain number of games in '08
sign: Zaun/C – 2/$4M

LINEUP
3B: Youkilis - $1 - R
CF: Hunter - $11 - R
DH: Ortiz - $13 - L
LF: Ramirez - $18 - R
1B: Burrell - $9 - R
RF: Pena - $2.5 - R
C: Varitek - $10 - S
SS: Gonzalez - $4 - R
2B: Pedroia - $.5 - R

BENCH
Cora - $1.5 – 2b/ss/3b
Zaun - $2 – C
Baker – $.5 – 3B/1B
Murphy - $.5 – OF
Kapler - $1M - OF

ROTATION
Schilling - $12.5
Beckett - $10
Mulder - $10.5
Jennings - $6
Lester - $.5

PEN
CL – Papelbon - $.5
setup – Hansen - $.5
RHP - Tavarez - $3.25
Long – Snyder - $1
LHP – Affeldt - $1
RHP – Delcarmen - $.5
RHP – Dotel - $3.5

total: 124.25
benefits & dead money: ~$10
luxury tax limit: 134.25
expected tax limit: $136M

Reasoning:
Clement deal – Philly was known to be interested in him, and in pitching in general, prior to this season. With 1 year and $9.5M left on the deal, if he proves he's healthy then Philly might decide he's worth the risk. Lowell is included in the deal to make the salaries work out, and Philly got rid of it's 3B with Bell being dealt at the deadline. Boston gets a 1B for the heart of it's order and a catching prospect for AAA. Basically, the motivation for Philly on this deal is to take on an extra $5M in salaries for '07 and get rid of $14M in salary for '08, all while filling two spots that are holes for them (SP and 3B) and a hole for Boston (power hitter). The benefit to the luxury tax is that while Burrell's salaries over the next two years equal $27M, his AAV will be only $18M since Philly backloaded the deal.

Crisp deal: The FO probably laid the foundation of a deal at the deadline. Crisp gives COL a cheap CF. Jennings was asked for at the deadline and will be a very good #4. He's a sinker/slider/change guy who eats innings. For Colorado he was their Opening Day starter the past few years, but at $6M in his last year before FA, they'll probably look to move him. Baker is a decent 3B prospect who is ready to play now but is blocked with Atkins in COL now and Stewart the future at 3B in Colorado. Affeldt/Lopez is basically a swap of lefties that Colorado makes because Affeldt is about to get expensive, and Lopez can fill the LHP from their pen role at a cheaper cost.

FA-Mulder: This is an about face for me, as I thought they'd go after Schmidt, but after having some discussions over the past few days, I think they go with the younger, ground-ball pitcher who's had success in the past pitching in the AL. Coming off a rocky 2 years in the NL, I think he'll come cheaper than Zito and Schmidt, and really, his game is better suited for Fenway anyway. He's an innings horse, and may benefit from being in the same rotation with Schilling since scouts have remarked that his 2 years in St.Louis he's gotten away from throwing his splitter. Those 2 years have been 2 of his worst, maybe getting back to the AL and using his split gets him back to where he used to be.

FA-Hunter: the FO showed interest in him in the past and he indicated a few months ago that he would approve a trade to Boston (discussed since he has a partial no-trade clause). I think Crisp will have a decent finish to the season, but the FO values defense to no end, especially with Manny in left and WMP in right.......Hunter is the perfect defender to fit in between them. Really that's what it comes down to, Hunter is the premier centerfielder and helps cover a lot of ground that WMP and Manny won't get to.

FA-Dotel: a real smart non-signing this year, he's a guy that the Yankees though would be back from TJ surgery in May for some unknown reason. In August he's still working his way back, which is pretty much the standard 12-14 month timeline for recovering from TJ. He's one of the premier setup men in the league and can probably be lured to Boston with the promise of possibly going to the closer role in '08 (if Papelbon goes to the rotation after Schill and Jennings depart). Either way, he's very good on lefties and righties and has thrived as a setup man in the past.

Our FA's: Nixon and Loretta walk, Wake and Foulke retire, Wells leaves for somewhere.

Offense: overall improved, as Hunter has a decent bat with a good amount of power, Burrell has the same.
Defense: again a target of the FO, with Gonzalez at SS, Hunter in CF, a solid defensive team again.
Rotation: I think you'll see this become a focus of the team this offseason. The rotation has had the team by the neck all year and I believe next year they'll want 5 starters capable of taking the hill every 5th day, and a longman (Snyder) in the pen to start if needed. Schilling, Mulder, Beckett, Lester, Jennings is a nice lefty-righty balance of innings eating horses who all can be very successful for this team.
Pen: It needs to be strengthened and it will be. Still have the kids there, but adding Dotel and Affeldt to the mix. Dotel can be a shutdown 8th inning guy for this year, and Affeldt has a cannon for an arm, but he will need some work to be successful.
Summary: I think the results of this year will make the FO very aggressive in the offseason. The problems with the rotation I think make that a primary focus. Second to that will be centerfield; Hunter is elite defensively, which will be a need if we're going to see 150-155 games of WMP and Manny next year. With Crisp there now, it's workable, with Hunter the outfield defense also becomes a strength. A couple trades and a couple FA signings are pretty much in line with what we did last year.....

Usually I wouldn't quote someones whole post but im actually going to comment on everything. First, Mulder will not get 12 million on the market due to his injuries this season I however would love to see the Sox sign him...my bet is that he takes a 1 year deal and rebuilds his value with STL. Foulke, he might retire might not were not going to get much value for him regardless...Dotel I believe signed a 1 year deal with an option with the Yankees so he's not an option, although I think he'll personally get killed in the AL East with all the fastball hitters in this division.

About your Philly deal, if you deal Clement and Lowell to Philly, Boston will have to eat money...Boston will have to eat alot of money. Clement is stuck here unless the FO wants to eat more money, Burrell makes no sense as I wouldn't trust him as the 1B. I'd rather keep Lowell and Youk but thats just me. At SS It would make sense and I'd love to see A-Gon stay but Lugo will be signed at the end of the year to a 4 year deal...this I do bet anything on. This FO LOVES Lugo. I don't specifically know why but they do. I'd love Torii Hunter here but I believe Shannon Stewart is a FA this year and chances are good he'll stay in Minnesota due to the money they'll save on Stewart. The Crisp to Colorado deal is probably the most realistic of all the proposed deals...except that the catcher Javy Lopez is a FA so im guessing you mean the reliever. Lets look at the teams that could possibly be trade partners for Clement though.

Phillies-Might take the chance with 1 year left but could be uglier than Boston in a hurry
Cards- This might be the most plausable because Dave Duncan believes he can fix anyone not named Ponson.
Giants- If Schmidt bolts Sabes is going to look at all of his options
Nationals- They had interest before the season began, need to spend to attract fans
Royals-If we take half the contract then maybe
Pirates-Ditto
Braves- Ditto
Orioles- Ditto
Rangers- Maybe, depends again on how much salary we take back.

So thats pretty much the teams you could look at then if you look at the minor league systems, you'll notice that almost the majority of these teams besides Atlanta,Texas, and Philly have shitty to decent systems. So is it worth taking back 9 mil for a so so prospect? Thats the question that needs to be asked on Yawkey Way.

And can we please stop acting like Tori Hunter is a good baseball player?

buffs, with all due respect, what makes you think that Colorado would want to trade their ace (in front of Fogg, Francis, Cook and Kim) AND a prospect, and a lefty who could even start if needed, for a very poor LOOGY and a player they simply don't need?

Jennings is perfect for Colorado with his changeups and sinkers given how tough it is for balls to break and how easily they travel through air at Coors.
Why on earth would they surrender him when the hot piece we'd be sending back is a LF adapted to play CF?

You know who is in their outfield? Matt Holliday playing LF (26 yrs old, 3rd full year), hitting .323/.372/.560, Brad Hawpe playing RF (27 yrs old, 2nd full year), hitting .297/.384/.510 and Cory Sullivan playing CF (27 yrs old, 2nd full year), hitting a "Crispy" .271/.319/.400.

You're assuming they kick Sullivan out when he's making league minimum, is young, is a natural CF and is likely to improve? And swap him with an adapted CF (and a LOOGY) coming off a poor season, while sending back their ace, a prospect and a lefty from the pen?

I can't really see a reason for them to make that deal. Crisp offers such a slight improvement over Sullivan, that I'm not sure why they'd want to get rid of those 3. Affeldt sure, as salary dump, but the prospect? And Jennings, an effective pitcher at Coors?

If you want to deal with the Rockies, either you settle for much less, or you send players that are not outfielders...

re Mulder: If Burnett can get 5/$55M, then a former Cy Young winner like Mulder will get $10-11M coming off an injury.

re Foulke: He could be back, and I'd welcome him, especially since you make some good points about Dotel (although I don't think he has an option). Switch Foulke and Dotel if Foulke decides not to retire and exercises his option.

re Clement: if he can come back and pitch a few innings towards the end of the year, I think he establishes some trade value heading into the offseason. Again, the deal isn't about value, per se, it's about swapping bad contracts.

re Philly deal: the net savings for Philly is almost $10M, I doubt we have to include any cash, especially since we'll be including Lowell who's having a pretty damn good year. Your point is valid regarding their trade partners, I thought San Fran was a pretty close second as far as trade partners goes, especially if the Sox agreed to take back Benitez.

re Hunter (MrNewEngland): probably the best defensive CF in baseball, and he hits .270-280 with 25-30HR and 90RBI. On the FA market, I definitely think he gets a $10M+ per year contract. Boston's interest lies in the fact that we're currently playing a LF in center. Again, his availability is dependant on whether Minn exercises the $12M option for '07 or not. My mistake was flopping him in the order with Burrell, who has the higher OBP and would probably rake hitting fastballs in front of Papi/Manny. Burrell to second, Hunter to #5.

Buffs, Mark Mulder would absolutely die in the AL, and I might quit following this team if they gave him 4/42. The only thing good about him is that his G/Fs are at a career-high (2.88 last year, 2.48 this year). However, he's posted 4.87 K/9s in the NL both years. Do you know how bad that is Buffs? While his control is OK, it needs to be much better to survive those hideous K-Rates. I won't even go into his injury history. Zaun is like the only signing that makes sense, and he's getting a starting job somewhere else. And Torii Hunter batting 2nd, let alone even on this team? Are you ****ing insane? Jesus, is this going to get even more ridiculous over the winter?

Anyways, I'll give it a shot:

Sign:
Julio Lugo - $4/32 (he may go up, but we'll have the payroll flexibilty to do it)
Pick up Seanez's $2.1M option
Buy Foulke out for $1.5M if he takes the player option (is that how it works?)

I'd love to trade Lowell as well for a LH 1B, but I'm not going to make up some ridiculous proposal, so I'll just say he's kept for now.

Lineup (not the optimal one, but factoring in Tito's thinking):
SS-Lugo
1B-Youkilis
DH-Ortiz
LF-Ramirez
RF-Pena
CF-Crisp
3B-Lowell
C-Varitek
2B-Pedroia

SP-Schilling
SP-Beckett
SP-Lester
SP-Papelbon
SP-Clement

LRP/Spot-Wakefield (reverse splits for people wanting a LH reliever)
MRP/Spot-Snyder
MRP-Seanez
MRP-Tavarez
SU-Delcarmen
CL-Hansen

This is a deal I didn't think up at all, it's a deal that Colorado was after at the deadline but they balked at when we wanted "a frontline starter" AND Shealy. Jennings is headed into his last year before free agency, and he's making $6M. Now, if it were Cook instead of Jennings, I would be happier, but make no mistake, Colorado was after Crisp at the deadline and we responded that we wanted starter/Shealy. Baker/Lopez/Affeldt aren't relevant to the trade, I'm just going off the reports that "starter"/Shealy was the discussion at the deadline, Jennings (because of his salary) makes the most sense to be dealt, and going from there....I'd be happy with Jennings + low/mid prospect though, since Crisp is the best player in the deal.

I actually agree with most of what you posted here. I'm not a fan of Seanez but at 2.1M his K rate is high enough and his ERA has gotten low enough that he's worth it. I thought that Foulke could excersize the player option and then the Sox couldn't use the buyout but I'm not sure. The difference between the player option and the buyout is only about $2M so I wouldn't try to buy him out anyways since the $1.5M is a sunk cost at this point.

I agree that Papelbon should go to the rotation though and I agree about putting either MDC or Hansen in the closers spot. Although there are going to be some people who tweak over the thought of Hansen closing. IMO he was drafted to close for the Sox and will close within the next few years. Its going to happen eventually so why not get the acclimation over with next season? There will definitely be some rough spots but IMO he has the ability to be a good enough that Papelbon can stay in the rotation.

I do think the FO might go after a FA SP depending on how they feel about Clement. At this point I wouldn't even pencil him into the rotation and would feel more comfortable if he was the 6th starter going into the season.

With Curt about to turn 72 next year, getting Roy Oswalt in a BoSox uni should be priority #1, #2 and #3 this off-season. He's a perfect fit here to compliment Beckett and the Sox can afford his 13/per extension.

With less bargaining power in the off-season for Houston (1 year left on contract and Oswalt looking to cash in), Sox should be able to get him for Hansen + Crisp, or maybe Youks.

The payroll for your team is around $100-105M, I'd say that's almost as unlikely as my team is. Maybe somewhere between the two is the most likely?

Mulder: In the AL, when he was using his split (see my first post) his K/9 was around 6, but then again, he's a GB pitcher, not a strikeout artist. He's had two injuries, a hip injury and the current shoulder injury. Other than that, he's been healthy over his career, and put up some very good number in the AL. I mention Schmidt, you say he's never pitched in the AL and he's old, so I go to Mulder, and he's not enough of a strikeout pitcher for you.

Zaun: at 37, he won't be starting for any team.

Torii Hunter: In the 5th spot he makes sense, per my last reply. He makes sense there, but I wavered back and forth on him. With Ellsbury probably 6 months away, I think the FO may hold onto Crisp until Ellsbury is ready and then deal Covelli to fill holes at next years deadline. Honestly I think Ellsbury could make this team out of ST, and be pretty damn good in center, which would save that money off the payroll I've listed above. Again, Burrell, to #2 with his high OBP, and Hunter to #5 or #6 (depending on WMP) but I think we can get by without signing Hunter (I think that highly of Jacoby Ellsbury).

Mulder: His very good numbers in the AL last came in 2003, because he wasn't even good in 04. I gave you 6 different reasons to say no to Schmidt, and I'd rather sign neither, but Mulder at 4/42 would be like the worst signing of any team of the new millenium.

Zaun: He's hitting .267/.372/.444 this year. He's getting a 1-2 year deal to start somewhere. I'd love to have him as our backup, but it isn't happening.

Hunter: Doesn't make sense in any spot for this team. Coco's D will always be suspect in center, but I think he'll return to the offensive progression that he was supposed to continue this year.

Plus, Hunter's defense is good, but not exactly tops:

UZR 2000-03: +5 (19th of 44 listed, min. 124 weighted GP)

He's been an above-average defender last three years, but nothing amazing, and his bat doesn't justify a huge deal.

Ellsbury might be ready next year, but I don't see a starting spot for him until 2009 after Manny leaves.

But Mulder never won a Cy Young.



Yes, but that would have made sense... I mean, as I said Crisp would an upgrade over Sullivan, but not enough to justify sending away Jennings. One thing is to desire a player, another is to just give away an effective pitcher when you're playing at Coors. That's why they balked at it. I can't believe it was for Shealy, given that he would have never played, blocked by Helton, and seeing what he cost KC.

I agree that they're going to be more willing to part with Jennings during the offseason, but Crisp isn't the answer to me.


Yup, and they balked at it, as you said, and then proceeded to trade Shealy for Affeldt and Bautista, basically junk (given that you too think that Affeldt isn't exactly a phenom).



They are, somewhat. Baker and Affeldt are much much better than Lopez. So the rest of the deal should me more valuable to them. Is Crisp far more valuable than Jennings? Given that pitching is more important than position players (and they have Sullivan, who is not as good as Crisp, but isn't awfully bad for league minimum), and given that they play in Coors and Jennings is even more valuable to them... I believe that Jennings > Crisp, despite the fact that it's the last year of the deal.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love Jennings, and I'd make a run for him. I just don't think they'll be happy with Crisp and junk, but we'd need to sweeten it with a prospect and possibly picking up Crisp's salary (so as to make his price more Sullivan-like to them). But I'd pick the phone up and see what we can work out. They could be the centerpieces of the deal, but we'd need to add more IMO.



Totally agree about Hansen+Crisp. I wouldn't give Youkilis up, as he's perfect for our organization. I'd much rather include a mid-level prospect to Hansen and Crisp, than upgrade from Crisp to Youkilis. Anyway, I really like Oswalt, and we should do whatever it takes to get him. A rotation with Schilling-Oswalt-Beckett would be absolutely incredible, and it would take the weight off the shoulders of sophomores Lester and Papelbon. We could literally have five aces, absolutely unbelievable.

Whatever, Hansen-Crisp-Buchholz, and I'm into it for Oswalt-positional prospect/Taveras (speedy centerfielder who can be 4th OF too).

Except at 2B, SS and CL, that's this year's team. I suspect the changes will be more far-reaching, but I don't have a clue how.

I would rather they keep Seabass than spend twice as much for Lugo, who is better, but not enough to justify the expense. Also, Theo has shown recently that he does not want to sign veterans to multi-year deals. Lugo will turn 31 this November; Damon turned 32 last year when they decided not to make the big push for him. Whatever logic they applied to Damon would likely apply to Lugo as well.

Hunter would be an upgrade in CF for the short term, but not in the long term. I think we have not seen the best of Coco Crisp yet. The master plan may be to put up with him in center for two more years, and then move him to left when Manny's contract is up, with Ellsbury ready to take over in center.

Papelbon wants to stay as closer, right? As one who believes that the main ingredient in the Yankees' success has been Rivera, I would like to see Paps get his wish and remain where he is.

Don't get me wrong here, I would LOVE to see Oswalt coming to Boston, but is a package of Crisp, Hansen and probably Buchholz enough to get him from Houston? Is he better than any FA out there? Sure, hands down. But is Houston going to trade him away if Clemens leaves as a FA and Petitte retires as he's talked about? Under that scenario, the only way I could see our proposals interesting Houston is if we included Lester in the package, and that changes the deal a lot......



Very well said.

Oswalt is a FA after 2007, not 006

generally speaking, you'd be right. I'm taking into account the idea that they might be rebuilding the team.
They have Clemens, Pettitte and Biggio leaving. Oswalt would be a year away from free agency and apparently he wants to test the waters, so it wouldn't be worth it for them to take him from granted beyond 2007.

It really depends on what Drayton wants to do. Does he think that a team like that will be able to contend in 2007? I really think they won't. In that case, they might as well just send away a one-year rental player that isn't going to change much in their season for high-ceiling young players who are also very cheap and have long contracts, like Buchholz, Hansen and Crisp.

As I said, that's my expectation. Obviously, if they think they are going to have a good team to compete, they're not going to send Oswalt away for those kids. But in that case, I am afraid it would almost be impossible to get Oswalt from Houston anyway.

And honestly, I'd never send Lester. I think we need an extra starter. Substituting one for another, for however much of an upgrade, still leaves a hole. Unless we trade Lester for Oswalt AND sign a free agent starter. But now we're really thinking too much ahead. Give me Oswalt without touching Lester and Papelbon (I'll grant you anybody else in the deal), and I'll be extra-happy. The idea of Schilling-Oswalt-Beckett-Lester-Papelbon is just incredible.

not to mention utterly preposterous. In this fantasy, who is our closer?

Not to mention that he does not want to play first full time. Asking him to do so might be one of the few things (trading Manny being another) might be one of the few ways the FO could piss Papi off.

Just a mention that this offseason will be unlike ones over the past few years in that teams like Toronto and Baltimore will be more aggressive in bidding. Toronto's Rogers TV Network deal and Baltimore's new MASN TV deal have caused both team's to publicly state that they now have more financial capability to compete with teams such as NY and Boston. Toronto has said in the past that they can target their payroll at $150m.

With the trade deadline being relatively inactive last year and this, and the FA market being more competitive, I think it's going to come down to old-fashioned deal making to upgrade this team. We can hope for 1 front line signing and perhaps one second tier deal but I don't expect much. Theo will give his carton of milk speech and say he did not want to overpay. FA history has indicated that in order to secure difference makers, one has to overpay.

I also think it would be an act of humilty on Theo's part to recognize his talent is in evaluation of position players. He should bring someone into the administration that has an eye for evaluating pitchers. I think this is one area where the Duke has performed better than Theo in comparison. Yes, the Duke used alot of retreads but if you look at the bullpens of the 98 and 99 teams vs. Theo's BPs...it's not close relative to league rankings. I am not saying bring in the Duke, but just someone in the industry who is highly regarded for evaluating pitching talent.

we don't need one. They will go CG after CG after CG.

I think Delcarmen might have a crack at it. But we could always get Papelbon back in there and have our sixth starter (Wakefield? Clement? Snyder even?) step into the rotation. I just love the idea of having that amount of talent available for pitching.

But I wouldn't hand the job over to Hansen. The kid is just not ready, and while I don't think he's overhyped (he's shown flashes of absolute brilliance), he needs a full year, or maybe even two, of development in order to become more consistent, because at this stage he's getting hit both on the field and in his confidence.

I don't think Oswalt's coming to town unless we send Hansen to Houston. I think Houston is pretty high on him.

so? Let's do it. I said I wouldn't hand the job over to him.

But as already said, it's a fantasy... As far as the closer goes, really, we could sign a FA SP and get Papelbon to close again. It's just too far fetched at present, but you cannot imagine how much I'd love Oswalt in our jersey. He is one of 4 NL pitchers I'm really crazy about, the other 3 being Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy (this season aside) and Carlos Zambrano...

Oh yeah, there's that Dominican guy pitching for the Mets too...

1989 Dennis Eckersley.

Another thing to keep in mind w/ Lugo vs. AGonz:

Lugo's ZR was deflated when he was in TB since he's been on turf. When that's considered, his career ZR lead over AGonz gets bigger.

The main thing to consider is the contract demands for Lugo. He's a nice $6-7M/yr player. You talked a few times about players being "worth their contracts", and Lugo at 5 years making $8-9M/yr is too much.