With all of the success he has had as the Sox closer, where do you think his futures is as a starter, giving you 200+ innings or as a dominant closer?

Your thoughts?

I think having a starter is infinitely more valuable, and I think that Paps should have started the season in the rotation... but oh well.

Next season I would love to see Papelbon get stretched out into a starter. He could be a really durable guy who can give us 190+ innings and a chance to win every fifth day. With a closer you're already in position to win, it's just not as valuable a position.

The fact that the FO was willing to discuss Hansen in trade proposals tells you what you need for this thread.

Papelbon is the closer of this team for the near future, i.e. the next few years, God willing.

Can't get past the chest on your avatar. Oh, Papelbon! He keeps saying he wants to remain a closer, that it gives him a huge rush that he can slam the door and put the win in the vault for the Red Sox. So, it sounds like Tito and Theo are going to have to twist his arm if they want him to move to starter. But, if he's this crazy good, as good as Mo Rivera or better, at least so far, they may grant him his wish and leave him be. IF he does become a starter, I have to believe he could develop the necessary additional pitches he may need, and be a standout 1 - 2 guy for Boston. Like, why wouldn't he be as good as, say Verlander of the Tigers? He's not as fast but he's got everything else going for him...stuff, command, heart, etc.

Paps has shown he is a great closer. I would leave him alone. He may not be as consistent as a starter, however if the RS pick up a decent closer this Winter he may join the rotation in 2007.

They could also see Delcarmen as a closer next year.

a guy who can shut people down in the 9th inning is the hardest thing to find.
you found one.

Two pitchers the Sox should target this off-season: Eric Gange and Kerry Wood.

Both should be cheap enough (<$7M combined) due to their injuries and the upside is just insane. That lets you slide Gange into the Closer's role, or Wood. Or have Wood start. Or Papelbon close and Gange setup. Or Paps and Wood start. Or Wood as Timlin's replacement. Or...well, you get the idea.

Seeing as how Paps is my 15th round keeper in the BSSH league, I say leave the lad alone.

In real-life however, my guess is that the final answer would depend on how quickly, if at all, Foulke can return to form.

I'm not sure what we do with Hansen... I guess he can end up being the uber set up guy for a while. But one thing's for sure... I do not remove Papelbon from the closer's role until he no longer wants to do it. His heart is in it, he loves doing it, he has ice water flowing through his veins... Why oh why would you ever want to get rid of a closer that has an ERA of like half a run at this point in the season.

I understand the argument that it's a waste to not have him throw more innings as a starter, but he can throw all the innings in the world, and they won't end up mattering in the W/L column if the closer can't shut the door. I want Papelbon to control our team's destiny.

If his numbers approach mere mortal status, then I think we talk about again. But that's the thing about Papelbon... I wouldn't be surprised if they never come down to Earth. He makes a bigger impact as a closer than a starter in my book. Keep him there, until he gives us reason not to.

I would be happy to see him move into the rotation next year. I'd like to see him become a solid top of the rotation starter for years to come and get as many innings out of him as we can. But if they can fill out the rotation in the offseason and end up leaving him as the closer..... well, that isn't so bad either.

I don't even see how Foulke's on the team next year.

Worst. Idea. Ever.

Hansen:
SPLIT G IP H R HR BB SO W L Sv WHIP BAA ERA
Season 20 22.0 27 14 2 5 17 1 0 0 1.45 .300 4.91
Career 24 25.0 33 16 3 6 20 1 0 0 1.56 .317 5.04
Last 7 2 2.1 5 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 2.14 .500 11.57

That's some uber set-up man. What am I missing about this kid? Everyone thinks so highly of him, but Delcarmen's the one that I'm confident with.

Just b/c someone's hyped-up doesn't mean he's good. Maybe someday....

Paps is best closer in baseball right now. In my mind, he would not do as well as a starter, thus he could have a 1.75 ERA and still be worse off. I think over the course of a season batters would hit him more. The possible situations in this offseason is for the Sox to persue a starter or 2. If this proves unsuccessful, then the Sox will persue a closer. One of the 2 will happen, and that will determine how Pap is used in the future. Knowing how things work around here, it would not surprise me for Pap to start as the closer,and then for the Sox to make a midseason deal.

If I thought he could have a 1.75 ERA over a 200 IP season I'd want him as a starter. But I don't.

Keep him where he is.

He has a player option for $3.75m, although I believe the vesting of such is tied to # of appearances.

Yes MrNewEngland I feel the same way.

Why?

I still think the idea of Papelbon as a starter is quite viable. If you were to get a guy like Gagne, it gives you the freedom to do that if you need to.

Remember, guys, Schilling's done after next year (unless we can convince him to stay, I wouldn't put it past Sox fans to have that ability). There aren't that many shut down starters out there...we'll have a rotation of Beckett, Lester, and....

I love knowing any lead in the 9th is safe. But even more than that, I like having the lead in the 9th.

Put him in the rotation, and the sooner the better.

He's been great as the closer, but I can't see taking someone with his potential as a starter and leaving him in the bullpen.

according to this, it seems doubtful.

I tried to stumble through the same sentiment earlier, but you said it WAY better than I did.

Paps in the rotation, no question.

I disagree. It's not about how we feel. It's about logic.

I did some quick math: A closer who pitches 80 innings with a 0.50 ERA (in a league with a 4.50 ERA) is worth about +9 wins (equivalent W-L: 9-0).

A starter who pitches 200 innings needs a 2.90 ERA to be worth +9 wins in the same league context (equivalent W-L: 16-7). If he can pitch 2.90 as a starter, he's equally valuable (in terms of wins) as a 0.50 closer -- not considering the value of eating innings (those other fourteen equivalent games for which he goes .500 but prevents our having to use Kason Gabbard as a starter 14 times).

So, in reply to MrNE's comment If I thought he could have a 1.75 ERA over a 200 IP season I'd want him as a starter. But I don't. I say that if you can be sure of anything close to 3.00 ERA over 200 IP, you do it.

Excellent number crunching. Add to that the fact Paps is not a sure lock on a .50 ERA season and that being a closer is actually MORE stress on your arm in some cases (like Gagne and others) and I say Paps belongs in the rotation.

Rivera's an awesome pitcher too. But I don't think I'll see any threads on NYYFans advocating that he goes to the rotation.

Papelbon looks like a starter. But he's been wildly successful as a closer.

I would like to see Paps close for one more year and give Hansen and Manny D and Martinez in Portland another year before picking a closer out of that bunch. Who ever does not close replaces Timlin in the 8th.

Then when schill leaves after next year Paps slides into the rotation along with Buchholz and Bowden.

Beckett,,,,Bucholz,,,,Bowden.....they will be the killer B's in 2008

Except that Rivera was a starter and he sucked the bone. It was after he flopped as a starter that he became a closer. If the same happens to Papelbon, so be it, but having a stud starter is much better than having a stud closer.

For those who want him to start:

who replaces him as the closer? Gagne? uh........Wickman? Can either of them handle the 9th at Yankee Stadium in a pennant chase?

who could more than adequately fill the spot in the rotation? Schmidt. Mussina. Mulder. Zito.

It'll be easier to get a stud starter than it will a stud closer. We have a stud closer right now, who wants to remain a stud closer, so you don't move him.

You sign Schmidt and strengthen your rotation, and keep your pen strong at the end with Paps.

C'mon man, don't be a tool.

Rivera is different from Papelbon because he:

-Only has one pitch (cut fastball)

-Was absolutely terrible as a starter in 1995 when he first came up.

-Has been a short reliever for 10 years.

Papelbon on the other hand throws a mid 90's heater (93-94 as a starter), a slider, a change up and a slurve and he's fully mastered the split fingered fastball which comes in at around 89-91.

He can change speeds, doesn't have any pitches in his repertoire that put a huge strain on his arm and is unflappable on the mound.

To keep him as a closer for his whole career is a waste of his considerable talent. For guys like Gagne and Rivera closing was the only way to get anything out of them.

Those numbers were referencing a previous post. Obviously a sub-3 ERA starter is going to bring you more value than almost any closer.

I just don't see Papelbon doing that as a starter. I also don't think he'd be the workhorse everyone thinks he'd be. 200 innings in 32 starts is over 6 innings per start. I don't think he'll sonsistantly get through 6. Last year he had a tough time going 5 before people were figuring him out.



I wasn't serious with that comment. I just meant that year after year Rivera is the big difference maker for the Yankees. It's always driven me nuts. Now we have someone that is that good. I can't believe people would want him moved.

I'm all for having Paps become a starter IF the Sox have a reliable closer for next year. Hansen has the stuff to be a closer but he is still young and getting his feet wet. Same with MDC. I think Foulke is toast, personally. How many blown saves did the Sox have in 05? I can see Paps leaving the game in the seventh with a 2-1 lead only to have weakened bullpen blow it. The guy obviously has both the mentality and the firepower for closing games. And that .50 ERA is pretty insane.

If we get Oswalt like I expect, I'd say keep him at closer.

So you want the Red Sox to take their chances with an extremely high priced veteran in the rotation? Let's see...

Schmidt- His strikeout rate has fallen off considerably, he's never pitched in the AL, and he got hit hard in the 2003 WS... He's also going to be 34 before spring training and will cost over 10 million dollars a year.

Mussina- Did you just forget 05 and 04 when teams were hitting .280 off him? Sure, he's having a nice season but he's going to turn 38 in December. This season of decent pitching has everyone perplexed. It seems to be a giant fluke.

Mulder- Decent player, but expensive. Why would the Cards let him go anyway? They can probably re-sign him. He does have a 6+ ERA this seasn though.

Zito- Too expensive, we'll be bidding vs. the Mets.

Why go after those guys when we have Papelbon (the starter) as a much lower priced and better option?





That's just not true. He got what? 3 starts before Schilling moved back to the rotation?

Quick hooks are common for young pitchers so stop perpetuating this myth that Paps couldn't get through the 5th inning. It's idiotic and it's untrue.

Thanks for the great stats, Clyde. Very helpful.

I beleive that the FO's plans for Paps are contingent on a few other things falling into place in the offseason. If we don't get a stud starter, or we get someone who falters early, I expect to see Paps inthe rotation.

...But I do think that they'll look for an alternative starter first. Messing with Paps confidence or general flow could be a mistake if he were to fail in the rotation. Could set him back.

On the unrelated bragging side of things, I just got a Paps autographed baseball, yay!

I should have been more specific. I mean if and when he lives up to his potential. I don't think it's fair to look at what he's done this year and determine that's the Craig Hansen we're always going to see. My comment was more of a response to the people who have annointed Hansen our closer of the future. If he ever reaches that level, and he's still no Papelbon, then let him be our set up guy.

Who says the set up guy has to be a nearly washed up veteran? I'd rather it be someone who can step into the closer role if necessary. Let's hope that Hansen figures things out. And let's also hope Paps continues to dominate. He's so good at closing, it's downright mind boggling.

Edit: I like the fact that Papelbon can be a difference maker just about every night. I'd rather not limit it to once every five games. Plus, less wear and tear on his arm likely means less injuries and a longer career. Don't screw up a good thing... a good thing like the best closer currently in baseball.

Your argument doesn't match up since we'd have to sign an equally high priced veteran to close if Papelbon went back into the rotation. Unless you're going to offer up Hansen as the closer next year, in which case I'll just say that you and I disagree. I don't think he's ready to close for this team, nor do I have hope that he will be ready soon. He is a good 8th inning guy who is becoming a very solid setup man, closing is a different animal. It's not just the final 3 outs, ask Fausto Carmona.

There is way too little respect being given to the ability to close games in this thread. It takes a special person, and usually that person is well compensated. To have a young, cheap closer who is absolutely dominating the league, that is not something to be messed with.

Especially when he wants to be the closer.....

Ay, there's the rub. As long as he wants to be the closer, I don't think they'll stop him.

This is just incorrect.

Papelbon can be a bigger difference maker throwing 80 innings than he could be throwing 200? That's absolutely insane. His impact is LIMITED when he's closing, not when he's starting. Pitchers who can start and do well are much more rare, and much more valuable than closers. Pretty much any catchpenny pitching prospect who can't crack a major league rotation can step in and get tough saves. It's just not that rare.

A starter like Papelbon comes along only a few times in a generation.

Also, closing actually puts MORE wear and tear on your arm. It's such a ridiculous fallacy that it puts less.

Go outside and play catch for 20 minutes throwing absolutely as hard as you can and then just stop abruptly... how's your arm feel?

Papelbon throws his fastball about 3-5 MPH more as a closer... its putting more stress on his body than he would be putting on if he were starting.

Anyway, I don't know why I am getting all worked up about this. Theo will approach Papelbon after the season and get his thoughts on starting. If Papelbon agrees to start and puts his heart into it he will be a starter, end of story.

so Bosredsox5 is apparently Bill James.



respectfully, there's no way you can know this.
unless you really are Bill James.

I would let Papelbon make the choice. He's earned it.

In terms of pure value, though, there's no question--he should start. No matter how good he is (and he is very good), there's no way his true talent level is an 0.50 ERA. If he closes next year, my guess for his ERA would be, at best, 2.00-2.50. No knock against him, but unless you strike out every batter, you are GOING to give up cheap base hits and cheap runs at some point. Papelbon's been great, but he's been helped by a lot of luck.

Since a 3.00 ERA starter is mathematically as valuable as a 0.50 ERA closer, a 3.00-3.50 ERA starter must be much, much more valuable than a 2.00-2.50 ERA closer. He should start.

Also Pap's BABIP is .204... he's striking out roughly the same number of batters per 9 IP but he's walking less guys and giving up less homers. He's obviously improved, but because of his abnormal BABIP (about 90 points below average) he's bound to start regressing.

He's just more valuable starting.

With all due respect (especially to a guy who has one of my lines in his signature... I should be giving you a reach-around at the very least!), I disagree. And really, there are two legitimate sides to this argument. For you to label mine "insane" is a little disingenous, don't you think? You're entitled to your opinion, bro, and I respect yours, but I don't think my opinion is insane.
I hope you are not equating Papelbon's closing acumen with that of "any catchpenny pitching prospect who can't crack a major league rotation." He has so far been an elite closer. He's got a great fastball, but he also has two other pitches that are pretty good. How many closers can say that?
The jury's still out on Papelbon as a starter. Based on this season, I'd counter your statement with a closer like Papelbon comes along only a few times in a generation.

When you start, you are doing that constantly, every inning in which you pitch. In other words, you start the game by throwing, let's say, 20 pitches. Then sit down and wait. Get up and throw 20 more. Sit down and wait. Then throw another 10 pitchers... Who's to say what is more taxing on a pitcher's arm? Kerry Wood is considering switching to relief pitching since he can't hack starting anymore. Make no mistake, closers work very hard. But I think an argument could be made that being a starting pitcher is more taxing on the arm.

Closers do generally throw harder, yes. But there's times when starters dial it up too. Papelbon is young enough that his throwing harder in one inning stints (usually one inning) isn't going to wear him out. And again, you saying closing is harder than starting is your opinion.

Assuming our starters do their job and that the lineup does its job, Papelbon has the ability to preserve (and sometimes win) every game in which he appears. That, to me, is a bigger difference maker. A starter could have 20 quality starts giving up less than 3 runs, and if the closer isn't lights out, a lot of those games are going to turn into losses.

Plus, in a playoff series, Papelbon has the potential to seal the deal on every one of those games. That is invaluable. And if he's a starter. He might win two games. What about the other games? Again, I'd rather have him as a difference maker in every save situation.

You seem to think it's a fait accompli that Papelbon will start. He very well may, at which point I'll give you your props. But I'm not so sure he will. Papelbon has a long way to go, but I think he can be another Dennis Eckersley. A Mariano Rivera in his prime. Again, a long way to go.... but if we've figured out already that we've got this lights-out closer, why scrap that on the chance he may be a good starter? In my opinion, I don't think we should.

edit: typos

Can you name all of these pitching prospects for the boston redsox that came out of their farm system in the last 30 years thatt just stepped in and got tough saves year after year........Yeah I did not think so.

A few got saves for a few months or maybe a year on pitchers we got from other teams but on a prospect developed by the redsox only 2 come to mind.

Bob Stanley and Sparky Lyle and they gave away Sparky. So do not be so quick to discount how difficult it is to find a dominate closer.

Now for Paps with a limited sample of only 34 IP and 3 starts last year he allowed a .260 BA and a WHIP of 1.47 and 4.5 walks/9IP. These do not support his 2.65 ERA and while these are good stats I am not ready to annoint him as a 30 game winner in 2007 like some here.

In comparison Verlander with a 2.39 BA,,,1.16 WHIP which are inline with his 2.79 ERA as well as 2.5 walks/9IP.

Now again for Paps that was a small sample size for 2005. When another closer is/if develops then talk of switching paps to the rotation makes more sense but I would love to have the kind of bullpen the Angels had a couple of years ago with Troy closing and Rod and donnelly setting up and the closer was ready when Troy left/was hurt. The game was over by the end of the 6th inning making all 5 starters much better.

Boston does have good hospitals though.

I really think Paplebon should start the season in the rotation next year. I think its much easier to put Papelbon in the Rotation rather than spending 15 million on a top flight starter. That 15 million can be used to buy one heck of a bullpen. If I were Theo, I would take a risk on an incentive laden contract for Gagne. Its the perfect time to buy low on him and he has the potential to be just as dominant as Papelbon is this year. Should Gagne get injured in Spring Training, you can always throw Papelbon back in to the pen if need be. If he gets injured during the regular season, I think Timlin, Hansen, MDC, or maybe even Foulke if he's 100% can hold down the fort until Gagne gets back or Theo is able to make a deal.

I love knowing that the game is over as soon as Papelbon comes in, but look how he's been used lately. He hasn't. If he has been used its in a tie game or a game in which we're behind. Its mostly because our rotation hasn't been strong enough to get us to the closer of late.

I think Danny Baez is also available at the end of the season. He might be a good guy to go after with some of the money we would save from going after a guy like Zito. Bob Wickman is also available if he doesn't retire. He might be a good insurance policy if Hansen doesn't work out

He certainly could be another Eckersley or Rivera. But, as has been said in this thread, Rivera was given a chance to start (though, you could argue, not enough of one) before he became lights-out in the pen. Eckersley was a good starter for many years before converting to relief at the age of 32. The fact is, most closers were given a chance to start first. They couldn't do it, either because of performance or injury.

The fact is, the argument that 70 high-leverage innings are more important than 200 innings as a starter is just fundamentally flawed. Good relief pitching is important to a winning team. It is also not nearly as hard to find as starting pitching.

The postseason argument is flawed, too. If your starting pitchers blow ala Jason Johnson and Kason Gabbard, what does it matter if you have a great pitcher for the ninth inning?

I don't think anyone wants to move Papelbon to the rotation so we hope that he's a good starter. IMO Papelbon could be a top of the rotation starter and thats just more valuable than a closer. Hansen was drafted to become a closer and the Sox have MDC. I would have no problem with letting MDC and Hansen have a shot at the 8th and 9th innings next year. Preferably Hansen closing but if MDC is still pitching better than him next year let MDC close. A rotation starting with Schilling, Papelbon, Beckett, Lester, and guy #5 is going to be one of the better rotations in baseball. The Sox also have the money to go out and get someone like Zito if they want, now think of a rotation of Schilling, Zito, Beckett, Papelbon and Lester next year.

RP just don't pitch enough innings IMO to make it worth using Paps as a closer if he can be a top starter. Give him a shot to start next year and if he doesn't do well move him back to closer. I highly doubt a stint as a SP is going to change how effective he is as a closer.

With respect, you say that the argument that 70 high leverage innings are more important than 200 innings is fundamentally flawed....What good are Papelbon's 200 innings if a closer is going to blow the save anyway? I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather see him closing because it is practically a given with Papelbon on the mound in the 9th that those are going to result in wins. You can't say the same if he starts. I want the outcome of as many games possible to be on his shoulders. He's that rare breed of guy that can take that pressure. Hell, the man thrives on it. It's certainly a sensible decision for him to start in the long run, and if that's what he wants to do, I'll be just as wild about the guy. But I just think the Sox are a better team with him as the closer.

Plus, another part of the allure to him closing is that hitters don't have time to make adjustments in a game. They're only seeing him once.

As to your assertion that the post-season argument is flawed, do you really think your examples are realistic? Kason Gabbard is not going to start a post-season game. And neither is Jason Johnson for Christ's sake. It's going to be Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Lester or Wells or Wakefield. I don't want their efforts to be spoiled by a closer who can't take the pressure. There's only one guy I see who can equal the kind of performance that Keith Foulke had in the '04 post season. And that man is Jonathan Papelbon.



I definitely think Papelbon could be a good starter. Top of the rotation? I think the jury's still out on that one. As for Hansen, he needs more time. I don't know if he's ready to be the full time closer. Let's put it this way... he doesn't look like Papelbon out there with the game on the line. But in time, maybe he could be...

As for the idea of giving Papelbon a shot at starting, if that's what Paps wants to do, then he's earned that right. I agree that a stint as SP in all likelihood won't change his effectiveness as a closer. However, in the games he doesn't pitch, it will likely result in more losses than there would be had he been the closer on the mound. Luckily, I think he relishes the role of closer, and wants to do it for the foreseeable future.

A real simple scenario here.....

If Paps was a starter for the Atlanta Braves with that horrible bullpen he would be a .500 pitcher. Now if Paps was their closer from day 1 this year I think they would be close to the Mets in the standing. That is what counts.

For everyone here suggesting that the redsox sign Gagne well he has to roll the ball in order to reach home plate. Eck would be a better option than Gagne.

For everyone here who thinks closers are being picked off of trees then tell that to the Atlanta Braves I am sure they would be interested in your methods.