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warning track power
I think the SLG is probably fine - especially looking at the full season numbers, he's probably more of a slap/contact hitter at this point. And given his good speed, that's a good use of his talents. Power develops later in a hitter's career, and his ~.800 OPS looks about right to me. I'd like to see how he develops with another year or two in the minors.
Harry Bobbin Manass
Ellsbury's power development, IMO, will determine whether he becomes a useful major league player (fast, good defense) or whether he's a star in the Johnny Damon mold. He doesn't have to (and probably never will come close to) hitting 20-25 HRs, but he needs to hit more doubles and HRs than he's shown so far -- only 32 extra-base hits in more than 450 PAs last year between A+ and AA.

He played the first half of last season in an extreme pitchers' park in Wilmington, so I'd discount those slugging numbers a bit. He showed a bit of an uptick when he moved up to Portland, but it would definitely be nice to see some more power.

buffs4444
Baseball America's review of each league's prospects listed our boy as #7 in the Eastern League (lots of great pitching prospects in that league ahead of him):

QUOTE
Ellsbury helped Portland win the Red Sox' first Double-A title since their 1983 New Britain team featured Roger Clemens. With his hustle and determination, he quickly became a fan favorite, and he also showed well above-average speed and center-field defense.

Ellsbury's makes consistent contact, controls the strike zone and gets on base well enough to become a big league leadoff hitter. He has a slight uppercut swing, and though he hit just seven homers between two minor league stops this year, Boston believes he can develop double-digit power. Though he runs well, he needs to improve his basestealing prowess after getting caught in eight of his 24 attempts in the EL.

As a center fielder, Ellsbury gets good jumps and runs down balls in the gaps. His arm is well below average, but he compensates with a quick release and good accuracy.


Having seen him a lot at OSU, I always thought he had an average arm. If scouts think he's going to have a sub-standard arm at the ML level, maybe he really will be a Damon clone.....which would be pretty good. pimp.gif
buffs4444
Ellsbury 0-4 with a walk in his first game in the AFL tonight. Peoria lost to Grand Canyon 12-6. Grand Canyon had #1 pick Luke Hochavar pitching the first 3inn tonight, a good indication that Jacoby will be facing some good talent this winter.
Lou Duffys Cliff
2006 Peoria Javelinas
Through 10/15/06
[codebox] AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
.167 4 18 2 3 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 0 .273 .167 .439[/codebox]
Lou Duffys Cliff
2006 Peoria Javelinas
Through 10/22/06
[codebox] AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
.270 8 37 6 10 0 2 0 2 3 6 2 1 .349 .378 .727[/codebox]
buffs4444
Interesting that they DH'd Jacoby Friday night to get him going and he responded by going 3-5. I guess the question is did he just need a night to step back and focus on his hitting, or is he playing banged up, or....?

Glad to see he's getting it back together though....
Lou Duffys Cliff
QUOTE(buffs4444 @ Oct 22 2006, 09:10 AM) [snapback]601950[/snapback]

Interesting that they DH'd Jacoby Friday night to get him going and he responded by going 3-5. I guess the question is did he just need a night to step back and focus on his hitting, or is he playing banged up, or....?

Glad to see he's getting it back together though....
Actually it's the second time they DH'ed Jacoby, he did it on 10/12 also.

I think they do it more to get people AB's since it is a limited schedule and with 3 centerfielders on the team, Jacoby, Trevor Crowe and Brett Carroll, they have to do what they can to get everybody playing time.
Lou Duffys Cliff
Jacoby to play in the AFL Rising Stars Showcase Game on Friday.
QUOTE
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: Ellsbury and Crowe are cut from the same cloth, speedsters who belong at the top of the lineup who even hail from the same region -- the Pacific Northwest. Ellsbury, a center fielder, also made it to Double-A in his first full season. It was his Portland Sea Dogs who beat Crowe's Aeros for the Eastern League title. Ellsbury was a big reason the Sea Dogs were there in the first place as he hit .308 after his promotion to Portland. For the year, the Oregon State product hit .303 with a .382 OBP and 41 steals.
Rosters (PDF)
Lou Duffys Cliff
2006 Peoria Javelinas
Through 10/29/06
[codebox] AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
.306 12 49 7 15 1 2 0 2 5 7 4 2 .386 .408 .794[/codebox]
FourthBase
BA and OBP look good.
Lou Duffys Cliff
2006 Peoria Javelinas
Through 11/5/06
[codebox] AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
.296 17 71 14 21 3 3 0 3 8 9 5 2 .378 .423 .801[/codebox]
Red Sox Fan2
Is his lack of HR production normal? For a supposed 20 HR hitter as some project, he's not hitting any.
jsinger121
QUOTE(Red Sox Fan2 @ Nov 6 2006, 12:03 AM) [snapback]607582[/snapback]

Is his lack of HR production normal? For a supposed 20 HR hitter as some project, he's not hitting any.


Power is the last tool to develop for many players.
Imgran
He doesn't have to hit a lot of home runs to be very useful. If he does, he becomes tremendous.

And yeah, a 20 home run hitter can have a 17 game homerless period. In fact, a 50 home run hitter can. The AFL is a real small sample size for measuring power.
Lou Duffys Cliff
From BA AFL prospect report courtesy of HBM
QUOTE
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Peoria Javelinas (Red Sox)
Ellsbury was polished when he came out of Oregon State as a 2005 first-rounder, and his wide array of tools again impressed scouts in the AFL. A prototypical leadoff hitter, Ellsbury works counts, bunts well and has 70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale that aids him both on the bases and in center field. He hits with a fluid, line-drive stroke that generates gap power, profiling as a .300 hitter who should hit 10-15 home runs a year in the majors. But for as good as he is from the left side of the plate, Ellsbury perhaps brings more to the table defensively. Scouts love his reads off the bat, his jumps and his pure speed.
alskor
QUOTE(Imgran @ Nov 6 2006, 10:26 AM) [snapback]607650[/snapback]

He doesn't have to hit a lot of home runs to be very useful. If he does, he becomes tremendous.

And yeah, a 20 home run hitter can have a 17 game homerless period. In fact, a 50 home run hitter can. The AFL is a real small sample size for measuring power.

In fairness the AFL is always homer happy. I dont know what they say it is, the dry air or the weather or something, but teams are actually hesitant to send their better pitching prospects there for fear of them losing confidence.

The odds are long Jacoby will ever be a real HR hitter. He was never projected to be, doesnt have the body type to be, and doesnt have the swing for it.
Lou Duffys Cliff
2006 Peoria Javelinas
Final AFL Stats
[codebox] AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
.276 25 105 18 29 4 3 0 3 8 16 7 3 .342 .371 .713


Splits:
AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
vs Left .359 39 7 14 2 2 0 2 2 8 3 3 .419 .513 .931
vs Right .227 66 11 15 2 1 0 1 6 8 4 0 .297 .288 .585
Home Games .245 12 49 12 12 3 2 0 1 5 6 4 0 .339 .388 .727
Away Games .304 13 50 6 17 1 1 0 2 3 10 3 3 .344 .357 .701
Day Games .300 20 80 14 24 3 3 0 2 8 14 5 2 .380 .413 .793
Night Games .200 5 25 4 5 1 0 0 3 8 16 7 3 .342 .371 .713
Bases Empty .313 67 0 21 3 3 0 0 4 9 0 0 .378 .448 .826
Runners On .211 38 18 8 1 0 0 3 4 7 7 3 .279 .237 .516
RISP .120 25 16 3 1 0 0 3 3 6 4 0 .207 .160 .367[/codebox]
Q&A with Jacoby Ellsbury
FourthBase
Wow, he murdered lefties.
Imgran
Wow, righties murdered him.

That's some serious splits. I hope they isolate and correct what the problem was there.

What's interesting is that Ell bats left, right? Not only were they serious splits, they were serious REVERSE splits.
Harry Bobbin Manass
Yes, Ellsbury hits left-handed. He had a severe reverse split at both of his regular season stops last year as well.

Wilmington
Vs. LHP: .908 OPS
Vs. RHP: .734

Portland
Vs. LHP: .927
Vs. RHP: .821
buffs4444
From the Indians Top 10 chat on Baseball America:

QUOTE

Q: Bertram from Taiwan asks:
Best leadoff prospect in the minors-Crowe, Ellsbury, McCutchen or other? Thanks!

A:
Chris Kline: Ellsbury.
Harry Bobbin Manass
Jeff Sackmann, who runs the minorleaguesplits.com website, has come up with a first effort at trying to quanitfy minor league defense, using newly available "balls in play" data. It's a somewhat basic and crude first effort, but it's the first real data we've ever had to assess individual players' defensive ability in the minors.

Not surprisingly, Jacoby Ellsbury ranked as the best defensive CFer in all of the minors last year.

[codebox]Center Field

Player Level Org IP PAA PAA/150
Jacoby Ellsbury A+/AA Bos 914 44 65
Justin Upton A Ari 918.3 32 47
Brent Johnson A+ Sea 847.3 28 45
Dustin Majewski A+/AA Tor 856 28 44
Tony Gwynn Jr. AAA Mil 812.7 26 44
Antoan Richardson A Sfg 1000.7 29 39
Chris Amador A+/AA Chw 805.7 23 39
Sam Fuld A+ Chc 734 21 38
Yordany Ramirez A+ Sdp 638.7 17 37
Matt Young A+ Atl 747 20 36[/codebox]
PAA is Plays Above Average -- the number of balls he fielded above the average CFer for his league. Sackmann had this to say about the results:

QUOTE
I can't wait to work out MLB equivalents for these; if Ellsbury's true talent level is even half of his 2006 PAA/150, he could be one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball right now.

Here's a link that explains a little bit about his methods.

Doc
Between single A, double A and the AFL the kid had 600 at bats last year, and he showed no sign of wearing down at the end of the year. I think we see him sooner than later in Boston.
SuperManny
QUOTE(Doc @ Dec 1 2006, 09:04 AM) [snapback]619097[/snapback]

Between single A, double A and the AFL the kid had 600 at bats last year, and he showed no sign of wearing down at the end of the year. I think we see him sooner than later in Boston.


I've been a huge Ellsbury supporter since he was drafted so I'm pumped that he looks that good in the minors. He's would be perfect to be the leadoff hitter and play CF. I've seen scouting reports that said he could play CF in MLB right now but his bats not there yet.
MargoAdamsLoveChild
Granted, you're not getting much return on Manny's power, but I really like an outfield with J.D. Drew in right, Ellsbury in center and Coco Crisp where he should always have been, left. Plus, it relieves the pressure of having to bat Coco leadoff, which has, I think, shown itself to be a foolhardy notion. Perhaps the FO thinks Ellsbury is ready for the show this season, and feels it can deal Manny because of Ellsbury's development? Just a thought, although Wily Mo Pena is looking like a man without a position more and more if that happened.

Doc
QUOTE(MargoAdamsLoveChild @ Dec 1 2006, 11:13 AM) [snapback]619175[/snapback]

Granted, you're not getting much return on Manny's power, but I really like an outfield with J.D. Drew in right, Ellsbury in center and Coco Crisp where he should always have been, left. Plus, it relieves the pressure of having to bat Coco leadoff, which has, I think, shown itself to be a foolhardy notion. Perhaps the FO thinks Ellsbury is ready for the show this season, and feels it can deal Manny because of Ellsbury's development? Just a thought, although Wily Mo Pena is looking like a man without a position more and more if that happened.

Yeah but Malc start Ellsbury in AAA,oco in center, WMP in L, hope Coco goes on an early tear with the bat, trade him in late may and bring up Jacoby
JohntheBaptist
QUOTE
Perhaps the FO thinks Ellsbury is ready for the show this season, and feels it can deal Manny because of Ellsbury's development?


The FO actually announced Ellsbury (and Moss, fwiw), will start the year in Pawtucket.

link

From everything I've read, it seems no doubt he could be a top-10 defensive CF in baseball, right now, conservatively. I like that they're giving his bat tme to catch up, though. I'm really getting excited about him.
MargoAdamsLoveChild
QUOTE(JohntheBaptist @ Dec 1 2006, 11:29 AM) [snapback]619185[/snapback]

The FO actually announced Ellsbury (and Moss, fwiw), will start the year in Pawtucket.

link

From everything I've read, it seems no doubt he could be a top-10 defensive CF in baseball, right now, conservatively. I like that they're giving his bat tme to catch up, though. I'm really getting excited about him.

No, you're totally right, it's not like they trade Manny next week and announce Ellsbury is the starting CF. But my point is that they would know that once they bring him up (trading deadline after trading Crisp/Wily Mo, or even in 2008) they'd have a real solid offensive and defensive outfield.

The more we see of Ellsbury, the more he appears to be the realest of deals. That's a position of strength from which the FO can make maneuvers.
scotian1
I would love to see Ellsbury in center field in the near future. It would be great, in my opinion, to have a person in center with a decent arm something the team has not had in recent years. That being said I would be opposed to having an outfield that had both Coco and Ellsbury both playing full time. I do like some home run power in the outfield. So if this comes to pass, ie Ellsbury taking over center, Coco must be traded.
SuperManny
Sun-Sentinel.com

QUOTE
The Marlins asked about outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury during their meeting with the Red Sox on Tuesday, but he doesn't appear to be available.


... unless your trading us Cabrera.
Lou Duffys Cliff
PAWSOX PROSPECT : JACOBY ELLSBURY PATROLLING CF AT McCOY?
QUOTE
Typically, players are sent to Arizona with specific instructions for improving a particular aspect of their game. For Ellsbury, the goals in Arizona include working on his bunting and learning to take advantage of his speed – which is likely the best in the Sox’ system and which general manager Theo Epstein said last spring is just a couple of ticks behind that of Coco Crisp.

“[His bunting is] coming along great,” said Luis Alicea, manager of the Javelinas who also manages in the Sox system, including Single-A Greenville in 2006. “He’s able to show bunt, and not actually bunt at the ball. But it helps because it brings the infielders in and he’s able to hit the ball right by the first baseman for a triple. He’s giving quality, quality at-bats. Bunting is great. It’s a tool for him that, I think, is definitely going to help him. He can drive the ball, but he’s got so much speed, and they have to honor that. And, think it’s going to work both ways for him. He’s going to be able to hit the ball through the infield because they’re playing shallower.”

And, that’s where Ellsbury’s speed will come in.
...
Ellsbury is working on refining that speed, especially his base stealing. His 64 stolen bases in 84 attempts in his two pro seasons give him a 76 percent success rate. But, that rate fell to 67 percent (16 of 24) in Double A.

“Stealing bases at a 75-percent clip is going to be what’s needed in order for him to continue to get the green light and continue to run as he needs to and to continue to make an impact on the bases. Being a base stealer isn’t something somebody is born with. It’s definitely a skill. Some people have better instincts but there are things that need to be learned. Some intricacies of the art of base stealing that hopefully Jacoby is picking up and will continue to learn to make him an even more impact base stealer, with working on all the other things just with repetition, with defensive work and positioning, and offensively, those little aspects of the game that we’re focusing on here with the fall league.”
Red Sox Fan2
QUOTE(scotian1 @ Dec 1 2006, 02:06 PM) [snapback]619276[/snapback]

I would love to see Ellsbury in center field in the near future. It would be great, in my opinion, to have a person in center with a decent arm something the team has not had in recent years. That being said I would be opposed to having an outfield that had both Coco and Ellsbury both playing full time. I do like some home run power in the outfield. So if this comes to pass, ie Ellsbury taking over center, Coco must be traded.


Ellsbury also has a noodle arm, but plays great D to compensate. Possibly better than Crisp's though.
Doc
QUOTE(Red Sox Fan2 @ Dec 12 2006, 08:49 AM) [snapback]624408[/snapback]

Ellsbury also has a noodle arm, but plays great D to compensate. Possibly better than Crisp's though.

I've heard his arm is underated, not a canon but not Mrs Damon, I'll hunt for a link
happymeal88
Tune into 890 ESPN Boston tonight if you're in the metro-Boston area to hear a Jacoby Ellsbury interview on the baseball tonight show.

That's 890AM between 7am and 9pm. 1400AM in the Lowell area.

rslogosmall.gif
Lou Duffys Cliff
Jacoby is #43 on SI.com's 2007 Top prospects
QUOTE
43. Jacoby Ellsbury, 23, CF, Boston Red Sox
2006 Stats (A+/AA): .303/.382/.425, 41 SB in 442 AB

In Beantown, the shadow of Johnny Damon loomed over Coco Crisp in 2006, and Crisp failed to meet the expectations left by the former Boston fan favorite. If Crisp is not the answer in the post-Damon era, then perhaps it is Ellsbury. Compared to Damon since his days at Oregon State, Ellsbury is the best leadoff prospect in the minor leagues. His best trait is one of the game's best offensive approaches, a combination of very good patience and excellent contact ability. Ellsbury constantly puts pressure on the defense, both by getting the ball into play and then running like heck after he's made contact. A different shadow will be looming over Crisp in 2007 as Ellsbury races his way to the majors.
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