http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writ...ions/index.html
Scathingingly hilarious rebuttal from Fire Joe Morgan here:
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/search/label/...a%20mathematica
But anyway, I thought Id give it a shot myself, sans the points system:
Angels
Red Sox
Indians
Twins
Blue Jays
D Rays
Tigers
Mariners
Yankees
A's
White Sox
Orioles
Royals
Rangers
Now, obviously what sticks out is the Yankees placement. The more I looked at this, the more I couldnt justify ranking them any higher. I started by taking the CHONE (and ZiPS where available) projections of the projected rotations and looking at them side by side. Here they are with the 2008 CHONE:
http://home.comcast.net/%7Ebriankaat/statsite.html
Disclaimer - this is only a rankings for this year(2008), not for the future...
CODE
Lastname Team Age G GS IP HIT HR BB SO HB RUN ER ERA
Wang NYA 28 30 30 189 217 14 55 96 7 99 91 4.33
Pettitte NYA 36 34 32 199 227 20 66 132 4 109 101 4.57
Hughes NYA 22 22 22 104 103 12 41 90 4 53 49 4.24
Chamberlain NYA 22 24 10 65 61 7 25 75 3 30 28 3.88
Kennedy NYA 23 19 18 92 92 11 44 82 4 50 46 4.5
Mussina NYA 39 29 28 163 185 19 42 109 6 89 82 4.53
Igawa NYA 28 26 26 155 174 24 60 121 7 95 88 5.11
Karstens NYA 25 23 20 110 129 17 43 66 5 71 66 5.4
Wang NYA 28 30 30 189 217 14 55 96 7 99 91 4.33
Pettitte NYA 36 34 32 199 227 20 66 132 4 109 101 4.57
Hughes NYA 22 22 22 104 103 12 41 90 4 53 49 4.24
Chamberlain NYA 22 24 10 65 61 7 25 75 3 30 28 3.88
Kennedy NYA 23 19 18 92 92 11 44 82 4 50 46 4.5
Mussina NYA 39 29 28 163 185 19 42 109 6 89 82 4.53
Igawa NYA 28 26 26 155 174 24 60 121 7 95 88 5.11
Karstens NYA 25 23 20 110 129 17 43 66 5 71 66 5.4
and the teams I have above them:
CODE
Lastname Team Age G GS IP HIT HR BB SO HB RUN ER ERA
Kazmir TBA 24 32 32 196 160 17 77 214 7 75 69 3.17
Shields TBA 26 30 30 194 186 23 43 155 8 86 80 3.71
Garza TBA 24 30 29 155 161 18 64 126 7 83 77 4.47
Sonnanstine TBA 25 31 31 184 198 26 50 125 8 100 92 4.5
Hammel TBA 25 33 28 155 163 20 67 110 6 88 81 4.7
Jackson TBA 24 38 26 153 159 18 76 114 6 88 81 4.76
Verlander DET 25 31 31 188 182 20 61 153 11 87 81 3.88
Bonderman DET 25 29 29 188 191 19 53 151 5 91 84 4.02
Willis DET 26 33 33 212 233 22 72 123 12 114 106 4.5
Rogers DET 43 22 22 130 143 14 46 67 5 72 66 4.57
Robertson DET 30 30 30 188 198 22 67 120 6 100 92 4.4
Hernandez SEA 22 31 30 191 182 17 57 170 6 81 75 3.53
Washburn SEA 33 31 31 190 196 23 66 109 8 98 91 4.31
Silva SEA 29 33 32 193 224 25 41 87 6 104 96 4.48
Batista SEA 37 42 27 182 193 18 80 113 7 101 93 4.6
Ramirez SEA 28 22 22 116 139 14 44 53 4 73 68 5.28
Kazmir TBA 24 32 32 196 160 17 77 214 7 75 69 3.17
Shields TBA 26 30 30 194 186 23 43 155 8 86 80 3.71
Garza TBA 24 30 29 155 161 18 64 126 7 83 77 4.47
Sonnanstine TBA 25 31 31 184 198 26 50 125 8 100 92 4.5
Hammel TBA 25 33 28 155 163 20 67 110 6 88 81 4.7
Jackson TBA 24 38 26 153 159 18 76 114 6 88 81 4.76
Verlander DET 25 31 31 188 182 20 61 153 11 87 81 3.88
Bonderman DET 25 29 29 188 191 19 53 151 5 91 84 4.02
Willis DET 26 33 33 212 233 22 72 123 12 114 106 4.5
Rogers DET 43 22 22 130 143 14 46 67 5 72 66 4.57
Robertson DET 30 30 30 188 198 22 67 120 6 100 92 4.4
Hernandez SEA 22 31 30 191 182 17 57 170 6 81 75 3.53
Washburn SEA 33 31 31 190 196 23 66 109 8 98 91 4.31
Silva SEA 29 33 32 193 224 25 41 87 6 104 96 4.48
Batista SEA 37 42 27 182 193 18 80 113 7 101 93 4.6
Ramirez SEA 28 22 22 116 139 14 44 53 4 73 68 5.28
Now, Ill buy the argument that the Yankee's young pitchers have a good deal of upside, but these projections are failry rosy(Hughes and Joba's ERAs). The issue is they simply will not be able to lock down rotation spots all year b/c of their youth and the jump in innings it would require. If we go by the 30 IP above last year's total rule we're looking at:
Hughes - 101.1 + 30 = 131.1
Joba - 112.1 + 30 = 142.1
Kennedy - 165.1 + 30 = 195.1
Now, that's essentially best case. If they go above those "limits" there is a rather strong chance of breakdown. So, my question is who picks up the slack??? If its actually Igawa and Karstens then they really dont have a very good rotation at all. In fact, even more interesting is that each of the other three rotations has a better young stud centerpiece pitcher than NYY: Verlander, Kazmir and Felix. You would be tempted to trade Hughes or Joba for any one of those right now if it was possible.
For those of you keeping track, this would also put the Yankees with the 4th best rotation in their own division... and I dont think its particularly close with BOS or TOR, and perhaps closer with TAM, but the Rays have a better 1-2 punch than the Yanks and they have better depth. Any age/health concerns that go for the Jays or Sox are just as strongly present with the Yankees.
This little exercise has made me very optimistic, to say the least. Even if you think Hughes, Joba AND IPK will be world beaters the Yankees are really cutting it close this year. That's a whole lot riding on three young/rookie pitchers coming through, though those are three pretty damn good young pitchers. For it to actually happen would be unprecedented. If they end up riding them too hard its just as good an outcome from a Boston point of view.
EDIT: Mussina added, was ommited due to cut and past error, thanks