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Royal Rooters > WE'RE TALKIN' BASEBALL > AROUND THE MAJORS > That team 206.4 miles away
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jackson
It has been a lousy offseason, worst in team history if you ask me. With the New Year finally here, I'm starting a new thread that hopefully will take us to Opening Day. Baseball talk only, if you don't mind. mellow.gif

Here are my first thoughts on Joe Girardi's Yankees. I think he and Cashman are serious about getting out of the gate faster than Torre's last three Yankee teams did. Which means a tighter spring training regimen and maybe a better monitoring of conditioning for some of the veterans, namely Damon and Moose and Pettitte.

I do believe Matsui will be traded to the Giants, probably not for a whole lot in return. Maybe just the lefthanded starter, Noah Lowry. Igawa might go along with the Yanks paying half his remaining salary.

A-Rod won't hit 54 HRs this year. Posada's not going to hit .336 again. So the offense won't be quite the same in 2008. That means the pitching has to be better.

It's going to be a fun year for Yankee fans, especially if the three kid pitchers get a chance to develop on 2008. We've been punished for five years by the likes of Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson and Clemens. It's more fun to root for kids than fossils.

I didn't predict a division title last year and don't plan on doing so again this year. The Red Sox are the champs and they can only get better. If the Yanks get better, that's going to make things interesting.

nhyankeefan
How has this been a lousy off-season? I'm not as old as you, but I can remember a lot more that were worse, especially in the 80's and early 90's.

The Yanks are headed in the right direction organizationally. They're finally using their considerable resources to rebuild the farm and they've done pretty well so far. My biggest concern right now is Hank and how he and Cashman will interact. I want Cashman to stick around and if Hank is as obnoxious and he seems to be it wouldn't surprise me to see Cashman leave this year when his contract expires.

In addition to the three starters you mention I think we'll see several more kids make their debuts with the Yanks. Mark Melancon is fully recovered from TJS and has pitched very well in the Dominican Instructional Leagues this winter. He'll start in Tampa but I think he'll fly through the system. JB Cox is also a candidate to be called up, both he and Melancon were very successful college closers and have pitched will in the minors before they got hurt. Brett Gardner (CF) and Juan Miranda (1B/DH) are the positional players most likely to be called up. They both played well in the AFL and should start 2008 in AAA.

I wouldn't predict a division title for the Yanks this year either. The sox are still the favorites, even moreso if they get Santana and Toronto and Tampa Bay should be better than they were last year. The best thing about this year is I finally bought into a partial season ticket plan with some family and friends so I get to see opening day and the last regular season game at the stadium along with some other games.
jackson
I should have specified the lousy offseason for me occurred off the field. As for baseball issues, I see 2008 as a bridge to doing something excellent in 2009 when the kids have a year under their belt.
alskor
One way it was a lousy offseason was the amount of money spent to essentially just keep the team together. They didnt really address any of their problems last year. The bullpen hasnt gotten better, and was worse than many realized last year. The team is a year older, as well. Left side infield defense is still an issue. They have not solved the problem at 1B. They have four OFers who should be starting and a guy who can only DH in addition to those 4. Starting pitching is still a major concern in terms of durability, age, health and talent. The only thing theyve done to address starting pitching is assume all the kids will get better.

Im not sure what they could have done differently, and Id score it a success because they kept Arod, but this wasnt a very good offseason by any measure. What have they done to close the gap with Boston? I do think theyll be in playoff contention all year and will be a very good team. I dont see them being any better than last year though.

Again, they did what they had to to compete this year, and they didnt overextend themselves too badly(Posada and Arod are pricey and will be well overpaid at the end of their deals though). They kept all of the young core together. They just havent gotten whole lot better unless you assume big jumps from rookie pitchers and bounce back years from lots of guys. Id be worried if I was a Yankee fan.

Let me ask you this: If they hadnt re-signed Arod where do they finish in 08? That would have been the worst of worst case scenarios, IMHO.
jackson
I spent a lot of time during the opt-out pondering the Yanks' 2008 offense without A-Rod. They would have needed to make a trade for Beltre or someone of that calibre. Maybe even over-bid for Lowell. And still the offense would have lost about 50 runs in production.

I agree with most of what you said, Al, and have probably thought about many of the same things. One area I don't worry about so much is closing the gap on Boston. It was only two games last season over 162 games. Boston should be better this season. I think the Yanks will be, too, because they probably won't piss away the first two months playing sub-.500 ball the way they did in 2007.

Age is a concern in some areas, too much youth a concern with the starting pitching staff. Only Joba can make the bullpen a strength. The Yanks have issues, to be sure. That's why it's fun to be a fan. You get to watch a team get better as the season goes along.
alskor
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 2 2008, 04:56 PM) *
I spent a lot of time during the opt-out pondering the Yanks' 2008 offense without A-Rod. They would have needed to make a trade for Beltre or someone of that calibre. Maybe even over-bid for Lowell. And still the offense would have lost about 50 runs in production.

I agree with most of what you said, Al, and have probably thought about many of the same things. One area I don't worry about so much is closing the gap on Boston. It was only two games last season over 162 games. Boston should be better this season. I think the Yanks will be, too, because they probably won't piss away the first two months playing sub-.500 ball the way they did in 2007.

Age is a concern in some areas, too much youth a concern with the starting pitching staff. Only Joba can make the bullpen a strength. The Yanks have issues, to be sure. That's why it's fun to be a fan. You get to watch a team get better as the season goes along.

To me... if I was a Yankee fan its essentially a bunch of things that are outside of the team's control that are putting the 08 squad in a precarious position... but as I said above, there isnt a whole lot you can do differently if you want to stay committed to a youth movement AND staying competitive. I wouldnt worry too much about them, but I do think theyll be shopping for starting pitching in season... again.

They are certainly one of the 5 elite teams in the AL(and consequently in all of baseball): Sox(in no particular order!), Yanks, Tribe, Halos, Tigers. All championship caliber clubs. I think the Sox have the least question marks of those five... but the gap isnt large and its nowhere near enough to guarantee anything at all. So it should be interesting in 08.
BronxByTheBay
QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
One way it was a lousy offseason was the amount of money spent to essentially just keep the team together. They didnt really address any of their problems last year. The bullpen hasnt gotten better, and was worse than many realized last year. The team is a year older, as well.


Every team is a year older. So what? The bullpen will be somewhat of a crap shoot, but we have enough decent throwing kids that we could see real improvement from last season. If the team forces Joba into the pen in the second half of the season to limit his innings, we instantly have a credible set up man, and potentially an elite one.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
Left side infield defense is still an issue.


Is it really? We both know the offensive contributions far outweigh any runs lost on defense, so I'd hardly call this an "issue."


QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
They have not solved the problem at 1B.


You mean the guy who's probably going to bat 8th or 9th in our lineup?

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
They have four OFers who should be starting and a guy who can only DH in addition to those 4.


I don't see having where having 4 quality ML OFers is a bad thing.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
Starting pitching is still a major concern in terms of durability, age, health and talent. The only thing theyve done to address starting pitching is assume all the kids will get better.


Major concern? Hardly. The kids, if healthy, will most probably offer upgrades to last year's rotation. Hughes and Kennedy could pretty easily be at worst league average. Joba I'm not expecting a whole lot out of. Other than Beckett, I don't see where the Sox rotation is any better situated. Unless Schilling and Wakefield suddenly got younger and Buchholz automatically makes the leap you're assuming NY's kids won't. Dice-K? We'll see all about that.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
Im not sure what they could have done differently, and Id score it a success because they kept Arod, but this wasnt a very good offseason by any measure. What have they done to close the gap with Boston? I do think theyll be in playoff contention all year and will be a very good team. I dont see them being any better than last year though.


The SP is younger and potentially much better, and there's every reason to believe guys like Damon and Abreu will be closer to career norms. Close what gap with Boston? A whole two games? Yeah, we gotta work on that.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
Again, they did what they had to to compete this year, and they didnt overextend themselves too badly(Posada and Arod are pricey and will be well overpaid at the end of their deals though). They kept all of the young core together. They just havent gotten whole lot better unless you assume big jumps from rookie pitchers and bounce back years from lots of guys. Id be worried if I was a Yankee fan.


I think this is wishful thinking for a Sox fan. We finished 2 games back of Boston. A WS win is a WS win, but I guess I just don't see the Sox as any kind of juggernaut. If they complete the deal for Santana, then I'll start thinking about the WC. Maybe.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 01:31 PM) *
Let me ask you this: If they hadnt re-signed Arod where do they finish in 08? That would have been the worst of worst case scenarios, IMHO.


This assumes we make no moves to fill the production void, which isn't likely.

Happy New Year to everyone. smile.gif

retire25
QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
Every team is a year older. So what? The bullpen will be somewhat of a crap shoot, but we have enough decent throwing kids that we could see real improvement from last season. If the team forces Joba into the pen in the second half of the season to limit his innings, we instantly have a credible set up man, and potentially an elite one.

Well no, every team is not a year older. It's possible for a team to ship out some oldies and replace them with young guys and get younger as a team. I think alskor was trying to make the point that the First Round Exit Specialists had a lot of guys approaching the Geritol stage last year and just about all those guys will be back in '08.

I'll agree your pen could be better, especially if the young kid goes back out there. It really can't get any worse than it was before he was called up last year.

QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
Is it really? We both know the offensive contributions far outweigh any runs lost on defense, so I'd hardly call this an "issue."

Don't forget the right side either. I'll take the gloves of Youks and Pedroia over those of Cano and Giambi or HOFer Shelley Duncan any day. I think your defense in general is a major issue. You don't have a clearly above defensive player anywhere on the field and you have a few guys who are just plain awful.

QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
I don't see having where having 4 quality ML OFers is a bad thing.

Except that you don't have that. You have three guys who can't field and a fourth who can't hit.

QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
The SP is younger and potentially much better, and there's every reason to believe guys like Damon and Abreu will be closer to career norms.

And there's a much greater chance that they'll continue to fall off. In fact, the FRES run the risk of serious decline at a number of positions. (Start with C.) They're a team with some age.

QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
A WS win is a WS win...

Yes it is. thumbsup.gif
Sox Sweep Again
After reading everything, it occurs to me that everyone is correct.

The Yankees have had a poor "PR" off-season so far, but they have time to fix that.

I expect them to be aligned to give the Red Sox a good ride, and only consider our team vs. their team to be "close-to-matched".

The Yankee rotation will be much better next year than what they had in '07, and they have a passel of people to pull up to fill in gaps. It'll be interesting. AS things STAND, I'd give our team about a two-win edge, and I still think Santana will be a factor in the AL East in 2008.
jackson
QUOTE(Sox Sweep Again @ Jan 2 2008, 09:22 PM) *
After reading everything, it occurs to me that everyone is correct.

The Yankees have had a poor "PR" off-season so far, but they have time to fix that.

I expect them to be aligned to give the Red Sox a good ride, and only consider our team vs. their team to be "close-to-matched".

The Yankee rotation will be much better next year than what they had in '07, and they have a passel of people to pull up to fill in gaps. It'll be interesting. AS things STAND, I'd give our team about a two-win edge, and I still think Santana will be a factor in the AL East in 2008.

Excellent. But neither of our teams really want to give Santana what he wants, money-wise, do we?
Sox Sweep Again
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 2 2008, 08:01 PM) *
Excellent. But neither of our teams really want to give Santana what he wants, money-wise, do we?


Both teams will pay that price. The prospects are what matter, IMO.
alskor
QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 08:31 PM) *
Every team is a year older. So what? The bullpen will be somewhat of a crap shoot, but we have enough decent throwing kids that we could see real improvement from last season. If the team forces Joba into the pen in the second half of the season to limit his innings, we instantly have a credible set up man, and potentially an elite one.

The Yankees were more than a year older than most teams to begin with, so the calendar moving a year forward hurts them more than most.

The pen is middle of the road, and if they have to put Joba there it could be very good, but if theyre forced to pull Joba from the rotation Id call that scenario less than ideal.

QUOTE
Is it really? We both know the offensive contributions far outweigh any runs lost on defense, so I'd hardly call this an "issue."


I didnt say I wouldnt take it, all things considered. But the defense over there isnt very good.

QUOTE
You mean the guy who's probably going to bat 8th or 9th in our lineup?

Yes.

I dont understand why year after year they refuse to go out and actually get a decent player for 1B. Why take the attitude that you have enough offense? This never made sense to me. They have an edge here with their lineup... lean on the other teams! Go overboard! They could at least get a league average player over there one of these years.

QUOTE
I don't see having where having 4 quality ML OFers is a bad thing.


Its not... its just another issue in this offseason that hasnt been resolved. Things could be worse... they could have two OFers for three spots, for instance. I dont understand how these four guys will all play though.

Hmmm... could we really see Damon at first base? Wasnt he told he was going to play LF already?

QUOTE
Major concern? Hardly. The kids, if healthy, will most probably offer upgrades to last year's rotation. Hughes and Kennedy could pretty easily be at worst league average. Joba I'm not expecting a whole lot out of. Other than Beckett, I don't see where the Sox rotation is any better situated. Unless Schilling and Wakefield suddenly got younger and Buchholz automatically makes the leap you're assuming NY's kids won't. Dice-K? We'll see all about that.


The Sox and Yankees have some similar question marks... will the old guys hold up? will the young kids come through? BUT... the Boston rotation is a good deal better than the Yankees. The front end is better. The depth is at least as good, and I would argue better. So its not like all things are equal and only God knows what the outcome will be...

QUOTE
The SP is younger and potentially much better, and there's every reason to believe guys like Damon and Abreu will be closer to career norms. Close what gap with Boston? A whole two games? Yeah, we gotta work on that.

In all fairness I did call the Yankees one of the best five teams in the game. I never said the gap was huge... only that the Sox are a better team as presently constructed and the Yankees havent done anything in particular to close that gap. As I said in my post above, the difference between the two teams isnt enough to guarantee success.

QUOTE
This assumes we make no moves to fill the production void, which isn't likely.

No, I know... but its hard to envision a series of moves that could make up for his production.


jackson
QUOTE(Sox Sweep Again @ Jan 2 2008, 10:11 PM) *
Both teams will pay that price. The prospects are what matter, IMO.

Maybe the Sox and Yanks were just bluffing each other and not seriously committed to giving up a young, inexpensive stud pitcher like Lester or Hughes for Santana. In the end, I don't think either the Sox or Yanks want to give up what the Twins are asking. So yes, the prospects do matter.

If Santana decides to exercise his no-trade contract, he stays with the Twins and ends up costing only two first-round picks and $140M for six years. I guess the Sox or Yanks might end up paying that kind of money for a 30-year-old pitcher. But it's risky. And it goes against the stated organizational plans of both franchises.
BronxByTheBay
QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
The Yankees were more than a year older than most teams to begin with, so the calendar moving a year forward hurts them more than most.


I don't see any really old guys that are on the verge of being unproductive save for Mussina.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
The pen is middle of the road, and if they have to put Joba there it could be very good, but if theyre forced to pull Joba from the rotation Id call that scenario less than ideal.


Joba will be the 5th starter. He will be limited in innings. If you're right that it will hurt the rotation, that means he's already won a bunch of games at the back of the rotation and will spend the rest of the season from the pen. I'd call that scenario ideal, actually.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
I didnt say I wouldnt take it, all things considered. But the defense over there isnt very good.


Who cares? The offense more thank makes up for it. You're really stretching trying to suggestion we're hurt with Rodriguez and Jeter on the left side. There are plenty of better LFers than Manny too, right?

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
I dont understand why year after year they refuse to go out and actually get a decent player for 1B. Why take the attitude that you have enough offense? This never made sense to me. They have an edge here with their lineup... lean on the other teams! Go overboard! They could at least get a league average player over there one of these years.
Its not... its just another issue in this offseason that hasnt been resolved. Things could be worse... they could have two OFers for three spots, for instance. I dont understand how these four guys will all play though.


I don't think it's so much that they feel they have enough offense as it is does it make sense to trade the pieces it would take to acquire a good 1st baseman? If Texiera makes it to FA, there you go.

About the OFers, I'll be somewhat surprised if either Damon or Matsui isn't traded before the start of the season.
QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
Hmmm... could we really see Damon at first base? Wasnt he told he was going to play LF already?


Yes, and I haven't read anything from the team that would contradict that. Quite frankly, I don't know why they don't just stick Matsui there.

QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 2 2008, 07:37 PM) *
The Sox and Yankees have some similar question marks... will the old guys hold up? will the young kids come through? BUT... the Boston rotation is a good deal better than the Yankees. The front end is better. The depth is at least as good, and I would argue better. So its not like all things are equal and only God knows what the outcome will be...


Obviously we differ on this point. Beckett is elite, but Wang and Pettitte are as good or better than anything the Sox have after Beckett. If Matsuzaka gets better, fine. If he's the same or worse...nu uh.

And again, Boston finished just two games up on a team that featured guys like Matt Desalvo and Jeff Karstens in the rotation for the first two months. I just don't see where Boston has an advantage. I think the WS win is obscuring more than you realize, which is your right. You guys had a fantastic October.

Sox Sweep Again
QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 2 2008, 09:23 PM) *
Beckett is elite, but Wang and Pettitte are as good or better than anything the Sox have after Beckett. If Matsuzaka gets better, fine. If he's the same or worse...nu uh.

And again, Boston finished just two games up on a team that featured guys like Matt Desalvo and Jeff Karstens in the rotation for the first two months. I just don't see where Boston has an advantage. I think the WS win is obscuring more than you realize, which is your right. You guys had a fantastic October.


Wang and Pettitte are huge question marks.

I have trouble believing that Wang is anything at all- he amazes me because he has absolutely nothing, yet wins. This is a compliment.

Pettitte? Without the juice (unless he's going to brave that and continue to pump up) he was already only a bit above average.

Wang or Pettitte are both the equivalent of Bronson Arroyo, 2005, as far as what you can truly count on.
alskor
Yeah, I do have to take exception to the notion that Wang and Pettitte are better than the Sox rotation sans Beckett. Though SSA... Wang has some filthy stuff, he just doesnt strike out guys. I wouldnt say he has nothing. Also, Andy likely wasnt on HGH last year and pitched pretty well... whether you buy his story about just doing it once or twice to rehab or not.

Here's some 2008 CHONE* projections. Tell me which pair youd rather have pitching for you in 2008:

CODE
Lastname GS IP HIT HR BB SO HB RUN ER ERA

Pitcher A 32 199 227 20 66 132 4 109 101 4.57
Pitcher B 30 189 217 14 55 96 7 99 91 4.33

Pitcher Z 29 196 192 21 67 185 9 94 87 3.99
Pitcher Y 26 164 183 22 32 117 5 86 80 4.39


Now, I realize most of you will be able to quickly figure out which pair is which, but I still think this is illustrative of my point. I dont mind Wang and Pettite at all, dont get me wrong, but frankly I think I would take the pair of Schill and Dice K over Pettite and Wang. Further, Daisuke would be the undisputed Ace of the Yankees pitching staff in 2008, IMHO.

The starting pitching gap is much larger than youre making it seem.


* I chose CHONE here as the projection system b/c the 08 PECOTAs wont be out until mid january and while ZiPS is out for the Yankees it hasnt been released for the Red Sox. Its possible those will favor the two Yankee pitchers, but even if they do its not going to be by much of a margin. Im of the opinion both will favor Dice K and Schill, though.

EDIT: And I should say Daisuke would likely be the Yanks Ace even if he doesnt improve this year. He had a very underrated year last year. 204 inning, 191 hits, 201 Ks. That's pretty damn good. I realize a 4.40 ERA isnt an eye popper, but his components are very impressive and indicate a very good pitcher who was a bit unlucky. But again, even if he's equally as unlucky in 08 he would be helping his team a tremendous amount and would be one of the better pitchers in the league.
jackson
the yanks' pitching fortunes this season likely will hinge on three guys whose 2008 production is hard to quantify -- hughes, kennedy and joba. because the yankees can hit a little bit, wang will win his 17-19 games and pettitte should win 15. i don't think anyone really knows what mussina has left. a guy with his talent, even with his mileage, should figure out how to win 10-12 games.

but really, the interesting part about the yanks' pitching this season is we just don't know. can you develop three young kids in the middle of an AL East pennant race? stay tuned. i'd love to find out, even if it means the yanks "transition" through 2008.

and yes, innings limits for the kids are part of the equation, too. that's why moose remains important when a lot of people want to write him off.
Bozzs
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 3 2008, 07:53 AM) *
and yes, innings limits for the kids are part of the equation, too. that's why moose remains important when a lot of people want to write him off.

same can be said for a healthy Wakefield for the sox..
Bozzs
from Rotoworld
Johan Santana-S-Twins Jan. 3 - 9:46 am et

Senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said Wednesday that he believes the Yankees have made the best offer for Johan Santana, adding that the Twins "are not going to trade him before checking with us one last time."

The New York Daily News speculates that the Yankees' offer includes Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez and "another prospect" that isn't Ian Kennedy. "We're not desperate, so we're not going to chase anything," Steinbrenner said. "In the next two weeks, we're going to have to get everything done."
Source: New York Daily News
Related: Red Sox, Mets, Yankees

Steinbrenner really is a chip off old the old block...arrogant as usual !
time will tell but who knows...still depends on who blinks first.
czar
QUOTE(Bozzs @ Jan 3 2008, 10:27 AM) *

Steinbrenner really is a chip off old the old block...arrogant as usual !
time will tell but who knows...still depends on who blinks first.


Also Rotoworld:

QUOTE
Asked Wednesday about Roger Clemens potentially returning to the Yankees in 2008, senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said: "I'm not signing Clemens."


So we know how their starting rotation is shaping up... Hughes, Mussina, Pettitte, Clemens...
Malzone64
QUOTE(czar @ Jan 3 2008, 07:45 AM) *
Also Rotoworld:
So we know how their starting rotation is shaping up... Hughes, Mussina, Pettitte, Clemens...

So I guess Hank believes McNamee, huh? Or, he realizes Clemens is done (in more ways than one).
jackson
QUOTE(Malzone64 @ Jan 3 2008, 11:47 AM) *
So I guess Hank believes McNamee, huh? Or, he realizes Clemens is done (in more ways than one).

Well, I tried to start a Yankees thread where we talked about baseball. That lasted about 16 hours. mellow.gif
Malzone64
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 3 2008, 09:09 AM) *
Well, I tried to start a Yankees thread where we talked about baseball. That lasted about 16 hours. mellow.gif

Well, Clemens is a baseball player and the Yankees tend to sign him to play for them.
Ralpho316
Steinbrenner might be my least favorite Yankee and that is saying a lot.

If they have the best offer; 1) how does he know and 2) why isnt Santana a Yankee now?
jackson
QUOTE(Malzone64 @ Jan 3 2008, 12:42 PM) *
Well, Clemens is a baseball player and the Yankees tend to sign him to play for them.

clemens has as much chance of playing MLB this season as barry bonds. they're both radioactive.
Bozzs
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 3 2008, 12:46 PM) *
clemens has as much chance of playing MLB this season as barry bonds. they're both radioactive.

I always thought that the juice gave them a certain glow whistle.gif
VoteRiceIn
QUOTE(Ralpho316 @ Jan 3 2008, 12:42 PM) *
Steinbrenner might be my least favorite Yankee and that is saying a lot.

If they have the best offer; 1) how does he know and 2) why isnt Santana a Yankee now?



Excerpts from Peter Gammons online chat on Boston.com today:

I think one issue that Bill (Smith) faces, is because Terry Ryan made so many great trades, he's trying to remake the team using Santana. I think Hank Steinbrenner would trade for Santana but only at the cost that was offered a month ago. The one team that continues to try to continue to build up inventory to trade are the Mets, and Smith may be waiting to see if any offer gets better.

There are days when I really believe that the Red Sox and Yankees wake up and hoping somehow the Mets can find 4 or 5 good prospects in the organization and make the trade, but right now, that's highly unlikely.


jackson
QUOTE(VoteRiceIn @ Jan 3 2008, 01:10 PM) *
Excerpts from Peter Gammons online chat on Boston.com today:

I think one issue that Bill (Smith) faces, is because Terry Ryan made so many great trades, he's trying to remake the team using Santana. I think Hank Steinbrenner would trade for Santana but only at the cost that was offered a month ago. The one team that continues to try to continue to build up inventory to trade are the Mets, and Smith may be waiting to see if any offer gets better.

There are days when I really believe that the Red Sox and Yankees wake up and hoping somehow the Mets can find 4 or 5 good prospects in the organization and make the trade, but right now, that's highly unlikely.

i think most of us would agree that the yankees and sox were playing a game of chicken with each other over santana. i've seen some people on this board post on the santana thread that they hope he ends up in the national league. so what gammons is saying is something that both yankee and sox fans, for the most part, have been thinking ever since the initial excitement over trading for santana died down. the sox just won the world series. they don't need him. and the yanks can't afford him, if they're hoping to make money next season. (MLB is, after all, a business.)
alskor
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 3 2008, 01:27 PM) *
i think most of us would agree that the yankees and sox were playing a game of chicken with each other over santana. i've seen some people on this board post on the santana thread that they hope he ends up in the national league. so what gammons is saying is something that both yankee and sox fans, for the most part, have been thinking ever since the initial excitement over trading for santana died down. the sox just won the world series. they don't need him. and the yanks can't afford him, if they're hoping to make money next season. (MLB is, after all, a business.)

The Yanks payroll flexibility has been exaggerated for a long time. I fully believe that report from the NY Times a year or two back showing the Yankees were losing massive amounts of money. It doesnt matter in baseball though, b/c congress has structured it in a way baseball owners cant actually lose money.

That said, This is a guy they really, really need and they should have the money with the new stadium coming. The new stadium scares the hell out of me. Its going to increase the gap between the Sox and Yanks again, payroll wise. Good thing MLB helped the Sox out by raising the luxury tax threshold high enough to punish the Yankees but not the Sox... and Im surprised their hasnt been more outrage over that.
jackson
QUOTE(alskor @ Jan 3 2008, 01:32 PM) *
The Yanks payroll flexibility has been exaggerated for a long time. I fully believe that report from the NY Times a year or two back showing the Yankees were losing massive amounts of money. It doesnt matter in baseball though, b/c congress has structured it in a way baseball owners cant actually lose money.

That said, This is a guy they really, really need and they should have the money with the new stadium coming. The new stadium scares the hell out of me. Its going to increase the gap between the Sox and Yanks again, payroll wise. Good thing MLB helped the Sox out by raising the luxury tax threshold high enough to punish the Yankees but not the Sox... and Im surprised their hasnt been more outrage over that.

i think $160-175M is a good payroll cap, if the union would ever agree to it. the yanks could get down there by 2009 if they stay away from santana.
TommyK8
In looking at the 2008 New York Yankees, I will first note that it is only January 4, so there is still time for Cashman to make some moves that might change my opinions. But as for right now....

The biggest weakness I see in the Yankees is the bullpen. Last year, Joba came in and dominated. He was a huge factor in the Yankees' second half resurgence. If he is moved to the rotation as some predict, and with the exit of Vizcaino, the Yankees are looking at a collection of Farnsworth, Bruney, LaTroy Hawkins, Edwar Ramirez, Ross Ohlendorf, Sean Henn and Chris Britton to try to bridge the gap to Mariano. We have already seen that Farnsworth can't do that reliably, and Bruney, Henn, Ramirez, and Britton have not proven to be the answers in the past. BBtB talks about the Yankee starters improving, but one thing I am pretty confident about is that they will not be going overly deep into games. Aside from Wang, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Mussina and Hughes will not be consistenly going 7, in my opinion. Out of necessity, I think that Joba will end up back in the bullpen as the set up man again, but this time without the restrictive "rules." I will make Joba's return to the pen my official 2008 Prediction 1, which will aid me in a year end summary to demonstrate how badly I crush BBtB's opinions on a yearly basis.

I also think the Yankees failed to address the fact that they do not have a true ace in that rotation. Yes, Wang is a good pitcher, but he's not the dependable ace that usually heads up the pitching staff of really good ballclubs. How Mussina does as well as the three youngsters is hard to gauge, but it will be surprising if they all meet the lofty expectations of many Yankee fans. Of course, all this changes if the Yankees acquire Santana.

BBtB talks about the gap between the two teams being 2 games, but for the vast majority of the year, it was much more. The Red Sox chose to rest players down the stretch and not bring back players who were injured to prepare for the playoffs, rather than worry about winning the Division. They did not play with the same urgency as the Yankees, as for most of the year, the Yankees didn't even have the Wild Card in hand. The Yankees early exit to the Tribe compared to the Red Sox victory over them may be more indicative of the difference in talent on the two teams, as well as their chemistry as a team and ability to prevail in the postseason.
CTYankeefan
You may have wanted to stop there. There are two ways, and only two ways Joba ends up in the pen. 1.) He fails as a starter or 2.) an innings cap issue. That's it. It would be an absolute waste of talent to put a qualified starter in middle relief.
QUOTE(TommyK8 @ Jan 4 2008, 07:31 AM) *
In looking at the 2008 New York Yankees, I will first note that it is only January 4, so there is still time for Cashman to make some moves that might change my opinions. But as for right now....The biggest weakness I see in the Yankees is the bullpen. Last year, Joba came in and dominated. He was a huge factor in the Yankees' second half resurgence. If he is moved to the rotation as some predict, and with the exit of Vizcaino, the Yankees are looking at a collection of Farnsworth, Bruney, LaTroy Hawkins, Edwar Ramirez, Ross Ohlendorf, Sean Henn and Chris Britton to try to bridge the gap to Mariano. We have already seen that Farnsworth can't do that reliably, and Bruney, Henn, Ramirez, and Britton have not proven to be the answers in the past. BBtB talks about the Yankee starters improving, but one thing I am pretty confident about is that they will not be going overly deep into games. Aside from Wang, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Mussina and Hughes will not be consistenly going 7, in my opinion. Out of necessity, I think that Joba will end up back in the bullpen as the set up man again, but this time without the restrictive "rules." I will make Joba's return to the pen my official 2008 Prediction 1, which will aid me in a year end summary to demonstrate how badly I crush BBtB's opinions on a yearly basis. I also think the Yankees failed to address the fact that they do not have a true ace in that rotation. Yes, Wang is a good pitcher, but he's not the dependable ace that usually heads up the pitching staff of really good ballclubs. How Mussina does as well as the three youngsters is hard to gauge, but it will be surprising if they all meet the lofty expectations of many Yankee fans. Of course, all this changes if the Yankees acquire Santana. BBtB talks about the gap between the two teams being 2 games, but for the vast majority of the year, it was much more. The Red Sox chose to rest players down the stretch and not bring back players who were injured to prepare for the playoffs, rather than worry about winning the Division. They did not play with the same urgency as the Yankees, as for most of the year, the Yankees didn't even have the Wild Card in hand. The Yankees early exit to the Tribe compared to the Red Sox victory over them may be more indicative of the difference in talent on the two teams, as well as their chemistry as a team and ability to prevail in the postseason.
ah so Boston = no issuesYanks -- what a mess wink.gif
jackson
QUOTE(TommyK8 @ Jan 4 2008, 07:31 AM) *
The Yankees early exit to the Tribe compared to the Red Sox victory over them may be more indicative of the difference in talent on the two teams, as well as their chemistry as a team and ability to prevail in the postseason.

i don't buy the "team chemistry" argument with any sports team. the yankees were good enough to play .670 baseball over the final three months with their backs to the wall. then they lose in the playoffs because their starting pitching sucks. that's been the formula the last three years. did their "chemistry" take a walk when the regular season ended?

as for the indians, they had the sox down 3-1, too. but boston had earned the right to a seven-game series and the final two games at home. that was the right they earned by winning the division over 162 games.
DCA
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 4 2008, 10:42 AM) *
i don't buy the "team chemistry" argument with any sports team. the yankees were good enough to play .670 baseball over the final three months with their backs to the wall. then they lose in the playoffs because their starting pitching sucks.



The Yankees get praise for actualy playing up to their expectations the final three months of the season. I have a hard time understanding that. They should have never put themselves in the position of their backs to the wall to begin with. I had the same thought when Torre actually received votes for Manager of the Year. How the hell can a team underachieve so much for a significant part of the year get respect just because they saved their season by living up to their potential the final part ?

The 2 game difference is also poorly used as a measuring stick. The Yankees were playing each game with playoff intensity and desperation while the Red Sox treatd the last month of the year plus as an opportunity to rest players and give others playing time. They didn't care about winning the division by 10 games. They earned the right to prepare for the post season by being the better team for 162 games.
jackson
QUOTE(DCA @ Jan 4 2008, 11:06 AM) *
The Yankees get praise for actualy playing up to their expectations the final three months of the season. I have a hard time understanding that. They should have never put themselves in the position of their backs to the wall to begin with. I had the same thought when Torre actually received votes for Manager of the Year. How the hell can a team underachieve so much for a significant part of the year get respect just because they saved their season by living up to their potential the final part ?

The 2 game difference is also poorly used as a measuring stick. The Yankees were playing each game with playoff intensity and desperation while the Red Sox treatd the last month of the year plus as an opportunity to rest players and give others playing time. They didn't care about winning the division by 10 games. They earned the right to prepare for the post season by being the better team for 162 games.

there are no "fluke" winners over 162 games. boston earned the title in september, boosted by a couple of young kids who energized the team. one reason i am happy torre is gone is because the yanks started very slowly the last three seasons. he had this soothing presence in times of stress that also seemed to lull his team to sleep in april and may. girardi's going to be more hands-on in spring training. i think the yanks will get out of the gate pretty well this year. whether they can sustain it in august and september becomes the question.

DCA
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 4 2008, 11:11 AM) *
i think the yanks will get out of the gate pretty well this year. whether they can sustain it in august and september becomes the question.



I agree. I was pretty scared when the Yankees let Torre go and picked up Girardi. I always thought that they won in spite of Joe not because of him. I have no question about his people skills. I always questioned his decisions within the lines. I believe that Girardi will bring a more intense, baseball centered mindset that will give the Yankees a new lease on life. I agree with you again in that I have no idea how long they will be able to sustain it.
Enialus Meliamne
QUOTE(DCA @ Jan 4 2008, 11:33 AM) *
I agree. I was pretty scared when the Yankees let Torre go and picked up Girardi. I always thought that they won in spite of Joe not because of him. I have no question about his people skills. I always questioned his decisions within the lines. I believe that Girardi will bring a more intense, baseball centered mindset that will give the Yankees a new lease on life. I agree with you again in that I have no idea how long they will be able to sustain it.

The guy did win NL manager of the year (After he was fired ironically enough). I tend to agree that Girardi will likely bring some fire to that team. But I sure as hell hope not.

Incidently, it'll be interesting how the players take to the guy. Sure, he was a player himself but...There is a ton of Vets on the club. The question I've had is, will they gel under him, or will his firey style cause rifts.
CTYankeefan
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 4 2008, 10:42 AM) *
i don't buy the "team chemistry" argument with any sports team. the yankees were good enough to play .670 baseball over the final three months with their backs to the wall. then they lose in the playoffs because their starting pitching sucks. that's been the formula the last three years. did their "chemistry" take a walk when the regular season ended?

as for the indians, they had the sox down 3-1, too. but boston had earned the right to a seven-game series and the final two games at home. that was the right they earned by winning the division over 162 games.


Agreed. Team chemistry is winning. Winning is team chemistry. The Yankees of the late 1970's had about as bad a team chemistry as is imaginable.
jackson
QUOTE(CTYankeefan @ Jan 4 2008, 12:08 PM) *
Agreed. Team chemistry is winning. Winning is team chemistry. The Yankees of the late 1970's had about as bad a team chemistry as is imaginable.

oakland a's won three straight world series earlier in the same decade with players bickering. reggie and billy north had a fist fight in the dugout. most of the team disliked reggie. that was part of their motivation for winning. same for the yanks in 1977-78. hatred of reggie resulted in five WS rings!
TommyK8
QUOTE(Enialus Meliamne @ Jan 4 2008, 11:42 AM) *
The guy did win NL manager of the year (After he was fired ironically enough). I tend to agree that Girardi will likely bring some fire to that team. But I sure as hell hope not.

Incidently, it'll be interesting how the players take to the guy. Sure, he was a player himself but...There is a ton of Vets on the club. The question I've had is, will they gel under him, or will his firey style cause rifts.

It is amazing to me that the Yankees would entrust their young arms, the jewels of the Yankee minor league system, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy, to Joe Girardi. Even though Joe was only the manager for one year in Florida, just look what has happened to their arms ever since they were placed under Girardi's control. Virtually all of them were either injured or saw a significant fall off in performance. Some argue it wasn't Girardi's fault, but when it happens to so many at once, you have to scratch your head at his selection as Yankee Manager. He was also unable to get along with ownership....seems like that might be a challenge with the bluster and bombast we've seen coming from Hank "Little Stein" Steinbrenner.

Girardi does not worry me in the least. This isn't Florida, where 9,000 come to each game and the team was expected to lose 100 games. This is the New York Yankees, and he has 1 year of major league experience. I compare this to Joe Torre's record of 12 straight post-seasons, 6 World Series, and 4 rings and I will take that tradeoff.
Enialus Meliamne
QUOTE(TommyK8 @ Jan 4 2008, 02:38 PM) *
It is amazing to me that the Yankees would entrust their young arms, the jewels of the Yankee minor league system, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy, to Joe Girardi. Even though Joe was only the manager for one year in Florida, just look what has happened to their arms ever since they were placed under Girardi's control. Virtually all of them were either injured or saw a significant fall off in performance. Some argue it wasn't Girardi's fault, but when it happens to so many at once, you have to scratch your head at his selection as Yankee Manager. He was also unable to get along with ownership....seems like that might be a challenge with the bluster and bombast we've seen coming from Hank "Little Stein" Steinbrenner.

Girardi does not worry me in the least. This isn't Florida, where 9,000 come to each game and the team was expected to lose 100 games. This is the New York Yankees, and he has 1 year of major league experience. I compare this to Joe Torre's record of 12 straight post-seasons, 6 World Series, and 4 rings and I will take that tradeoff.

I hear you on the similarities to Dusty (Without actually saying it of course). Either way, a complete and epic collapse is what I hope for each and every year from the MFY.

Who knows...Maybe I'll get it through most of the year, instead of just Mar-early May last year.
BronxByTheBay
QUOTE(DCA @ Jan 4 2008, 08:06 AM) *
The 2 game difference is also poorly used as a measuring stick. The Yankees were playing each game with playoff intensity and desperation while the Red Sox treatd the last month of the year plus as an opportunity to rest players and give others playing time. They didn't care about winning the division by 10 games. They earned the right to prepare for the post season by being the better team for 162 games.


Yes, that sounds about right. The first month plus of the season, NY didn't care. The last month, Boston didn't care.

Thats exactly how baseball works! Teams just win when they wanna. smile.gif

Anyway, focusing on next season it appears we may be back in the Santana sweeps. Yes, I wish Hank would STFU, but on the flip side I'd still do Hughes/Melky/Marquez for Johan in a heartbeat and sleep like a baby at night. Beyond that, i believe nothing I read because everyone has been wrong so many times on this one it's not even funny while still being pretty funny.

Second favorite scenario to the Yanks getting Santana? Omar gutting his farm and taking him to the NL.
Sox Sweep Again
QUOTE(BronxByTheBay @ Jan 4 2008, 08:31 PM) *
Yes, that sounds about right. The first month plus of the season, NY didn't care. The last month, Boston didn't care.

Thats exactly how baseball works! Teams just win when they wanna. smile.gif

Anyway, focusing on next season it appears we may be back in the Santana sweeps. Yes, I wish Hank would STFU, but on the flip side I'd still do Hughes/Melky/Marquez for Johan in a heartbeat and sleep like a baby at night. Beyond that, i believe nothing I read because everyone has been wrong so many times on this one it's not even funny while still being pretty funny.

Second favorite scenario to the Yanks getting Santana? Omar gutting his farm and taking him to the NL.


Whatever, DCA was correct in the quoted assertion.

Barry.
BronxByTheBay
QUOTE(Sox Sweep Again @ Jan 4 2008, 07:40 PM) *
Whatever, DCA was correct in the quoted assertion.

Barry.


What, I was agreeing with him?
SteelSox
You were agreeing by saying they didn't care? Really? I know people say September games are more important but they didn't care the first couple of months?

The gap is more than 2 games. And unless they get Santana it will be at least that this year.

jackson
QUOTE(SteelSox @ Jan 4 2008, 11:19 PM) *
You were agreeing by saying they didn't care? Really? I know people say September games are more important but they didn't care the first couple of months?

The gap is more than 2 games. And unless they get Santana it will be at least that this year.

Call me crazy but I think the 2008 Yankees are a better team than the 2008 Red Sox. A lot of good things happened to Boston in 2007. But that's over. This is a New Year and the Yankees aren't exactly cowering in a corner, worrying about the Red Sox.
Enialus Meliamne
QUOTE(jackson @ Jan 5 2008, 01:17 AM) *
Call me crazy

You're crazy man. whistle.gif

In honest truth man, the numbers just don't add up on that. Of course, it will come down to little things that aren't in a number, as we've seen COUNTLESS times with these two clubs. Should be a fun season.
jackson
QUOTE(Enialus Meliamne @ Jan 5 2008, 01:23 AM) *
You're crazy man. whistle.gif

In honest truth man, the numbers just don't add up on that. Of course, it will come down to little things that aren't in a number, as we've seen COUNTLESS times with these two clubs. Should be a fun season.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Let's get the Patriots their rings and then move on to the real season, the one that lasts seven months and drains us to the bone on most nights. I love this rivalry, even when Boston gets the upper hand for awhile. That's what makes it a great rivalry.
DCA
QUOTE(Sox Sweep Again @ Jan 4 2008, 10:40 PM) *
Whatever, DCA was correct in the quoted assertion.

Barry.


Oh, he replied to one of my posts ? Let me guess, it was needlessly sarcastic ? I wouldn't have the guy on ignore if he could discuss baseball without being a total ass.

Anyways, nowhere in my post did I imply that either team "didn't care". My point was that the Red Sox played so well the first several months that they had the luxury to rest players, and give others playing time to be better prepard for the playoffs. The fact that the end result was a 2 game division lead is totally irrelevant.

Jackson, I agree that a lot of unexpected good things happened top the Red Sox in 07 , (Pedroia, Beckett, etc...). The same can be said for the Yankees though, (Posada, Arod, etc...). Chamberlain and Ellsbury provided very similar sparks at very similar times as well.

Also, you can not overlook the unexpected bad performances that the Red Sox received last year from Lugo and Drew. I think that even an extremely optomistic Yankee fan has to expect better from those two this year.
jackson
QUOTE(DCA @ Jan 5 2008, 11:39 AM) *
Jackson, I agree that a lot of unexpected good things happened top the Red Sox in 07 , (Pedroia, Beckett, etc...). The same can be said for the Yankees though, (Posada, Arod, etc...). Chamberlain and Ellsbury provided very similar sparks at very similar times as well.

Also, you can not overlook the unexpected bad performances that the Red Sox received last year from Lugo and Drew. I think that even an extremely optomistic Yankee fan has to expect better from those two this year.

yeah, drew worries me. frankly, i thought he would give the red sox a killer offense last year if he repeated his efforts with the dodgers in 2006. i tend to go with the theory that a lot of free agents go through an adjustment season, especially when they switch leagues and come to a high-pressure market. the thing with drew, based on his career history, is that he has to stay motivated, and stay healthy, too. playing in a pennant race takes care of any motivation issues.

lugo is what he is. even if he hits .280 next season, he does enough bad things in the field to impact games in a negative way. i don't see him as boston's long-term answer at shortstop. he's just here until the contract runs out.

posada and a-rod won't repeat their 2007 numbers but they'll still be key guys in the offense, along with abreu and cano, who underachieved for the first three months last season. jeter had a mediocre season in terms of slugging percentage. except for the six homers against boston, of course. mellow.gif
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