In case you or I missed it:

I guess Olney's "Joba To The Pen" thread is a bit irrelevent right now. The Yanks seem to be stretching Chamberlain out this month to begin the season as a starter. And since all the buzz on Latroy Hawkins is good, there should be no reason to drop Joba out of the rotation until innings limitations set in at mid-season.

From all reports, Hawkins has turned into a hard sinker pitcher, instead of the fastball guy he had been until two years ago. And Girardi likes the fact that he keeps the ball down, down, down.

The only thing I don't like about the bullpen right now is no lefties. We've seen enough of Henn to know he's only so-so but the kid may make the team anyway, just because he's lefthanded.

In other Yankee news, Igawa gave up a grand slam the other day against South Florida to a kid who only had three ABs last season due to injury. I think the guy is just around for comic relief, same as Pavano, who asked a clubhouse boy for a paper cup the other day and the kid dug one out of the trash can and flipped it to him. That morsel is from the LoHud blog, of course.

Oh, Brian Bruney lost 25 pounds but he still can't throw strikes. I listened to his inning on the way to work yesterday afternoon. And yes, Georgie Girl is back for another year on the air, not that there was ever any doubt.

Yanks are visiting the Astros in Kissimmee today. No wonder Clemens left Houston's camp late last week. What a circus that would have been, had he stuck around for today's game.

Hey, Barry: Yanks lead 7-5 in the 6th. Cano has three hits and is batting .571 this season, same as Shelley Duncan. Ensberg is playing first and has two hits. Ensberg and Shelley can't both make the team, right?

Moose got shelled. 6 hits in 2 innings. 3 or 4 runs. Karstens came in to hurl 3 scoreless frames against Houston's Class AA prospects.

I'll send you my DVD of the game after I'm done rewatching it tonight.

What's the buzz on Chris Britton? Has he lost weight? Does he figure into their bullpen to start the season?

No, he stayed fat, will have to pitch his way on to the 25-man roster or else maybe get traded. He'll throw a fit if they Yanks option him back to Scranton (assuming he has options, which i believe he does).

Yanks could package Britton and Morgan Ensberg for a lefty reliever. Just dreaming.

Interesting spring training story from LoHud, since only about 3 roster spots are open:

http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...WSFRONTCAROUSEL

Gotta love Pap. He's underpaid and he can't count. Says Mo has been doing it for 10 years. Actually, it's 12 years. Pap must have run out of fingers and forgot to use his toes.

"I feel a certain obligation not only to myself and my family to make the money that I deserve but for the game of baseball." Papelbon said. "Mariano Rivera has been doing it for the past 10 years and with me coming up behind him I feel a certain obligation to do the same."

Sox can renew Pap for $425,00 on Thursday. He says he'll deal with it.

Not likely, Jon.

David Pinto with an interesting take on Kei Igawa:



http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/025117.php

yeah, that is an interesting and incisive take. after watching igawa a few times early last season, i remembered the old peggy lee song: "Is That All There Is?" and then he went and shut out the sox for 7 innings on national TV after karstens got his leg broken. an analomy? i guess it was.

the guy needs perfect location and great pitch selection to succeed over here. just don't see it happening.

I think that's a little rough. I dont think he'll ever be a great K guy over here, but I dont think he will perennially be the worst SP in the AL. There are guys who are always throwing up 5 ERAs. I think Igawa can be a 4.70 - 5.00 ERA pitcher once he fully adjusts. Thats still useful. Is he overpaid? Yes. Would I call the signing a mistake? Yes, but that's old news. If he did ever move to a cavernous park like Dodger Stadium or Petco I could see him eking out a half decent season. There's just really very little upside here, IMHO.

I wouldnt close the book on him b/c of Matsui's comments or anything - I just found that to be the first really, really good explanation of this guy's struggles. Those are the sort of factors that allow a minor league pitcher to sometimes dominate and then get rocked when he reaches the majors, too. Stuff matters once you reach the bigs.

Igawa did, after all, strike out 7 per 9 IP in MLB last year, so he's not useless or anything. Hell, 7 per 9 looks great compared to another certain Yankees starting pitcher

Striking out 1 of the 9 batters he faces each inning is no silver lining.

yeah, put igawa in a big park and he'd be okay -- like the grand canyon. throwing strikes is his issue. not just location, finding the plate is a problem for the crafty japanese lefthander.

i've seen a lot of good young pitchers come through pawtucket who hit the wall when they make it to the big leagues, mostly because they don't trust their stuff, try to nibble, and end up pitching behind in the count all the time. jon lester is only the latest to take this route. what is the problem with throwing strikes? igawa could be useful somewhere in the big leagues, probably with the padres or the dodgers, where some of his mistakes don't leave the park.

i wonder about jon lester the same way. he spent the past two years nibbling. if he keeps it up this season, the red sox could be looking at a solid No. 5 starter, if that.

Lester's stuff blows Igawa's away though. That is really the difference. Lester nibbles, but he has more swing and miss stuff at the MLB level - and by a wide margin. Lester is also very good at keeping the ball in the park and on the ground. Josh Beckett nibbled in 06 and then ended up throwing a fat pitch across the plate because he got behind in the count. No one would say he has bad stuff. Youre confusing the sympton with the disease. Lots of reasons for the symptom...

Lester also tops out in the mid 90's, has a much better deuce and has a strong bullpen behind him if he gets in a jam the third or fourth time through a batting order. Not to mention better infield and outfield defense...

If you knew Brian Bruney and Dr. Farnsworth were about to "relieve" you, and that Cement Shoes Intangibles was ole'-ing ground balls not hit right to him behind you, you'd pitch like crap too!

The jury's still out on Lester and will be until he settles down. He could be a nice No. 2 starter or remain a back-end rotation guy with control issues. This year should tell the story. What he is going through is not unusual for a young pitcher with talent. But he has to break through at some point. With Boston's luck, that could be this year, when they really need him. I would say he's on schedule for some kind of breakthrough this season, based on his stuff and perhaps his increasing maturity on the mound.

Joba gave up a two-run homer today and had some control issues during a two-inning outing today against the Twins. Kennedy gave up a homer in his two innings of work as well.

On the bright side, Cano is hitting .700 this spring and Shelley Duncan is hitting in the high .600s with 9 RBI in maybe 12 ABs.

Some of the more optimistic writers predict Cano may hit .500 this season. The kid is that good.

I unfortunately don't agree. I think Lester's going to have a poor year. Just a hunch. He allows too many baserunners, I don't trust his out pitches and we need him for a lot of innings.

The only thing I'd worry about Joba if I were you is how he's used by Girardi, which is probably a minor worry, or there may be "Joba Rules" again, actually.

Joba has to learn how to be a starter in the big leagues. He's still in kindergarten compared to Hughes, who might be ready for junior high. I say the same thing about Lester and any other young pitcher with talent that can't be denied. Eventually the light comes on. For some guys, it's almost right away. They are the rare ones. I think Hughes has jumped ahead of Lester. Can't say where Buchholz is at the moment, but he's the precocious one, a kid who might jump from grade school to senior high by the middle of the summer.

All of those guys have talent and will eventually pitch very well in the big leagues. Lefties sometimes take longer. Sandy Koufax spent six years trying to control his wildness before the light went on. His catcher, Norm Sherry, told him in spring training of 1961 not to try and throw every pitch through the wall. He backed off a little and had the four greatest years (1963-66) of any pitcher in my lifetime. The guy was pitching over 300 innings in a season so forget about any Pedro comparisons.

This keeps coming up over and over again. The organization isn't going to allow anyone to abuse Joba, or any of the other kids. If Joe FOUR RINGS YANKEE HERO LEGEND Torre wasn't allowed to have his way with Chamberlain, Girardi won't.

Yeah, that's why I guessed that "Joba Rules" might be in effect again, and maybe even "Hughes Rules".

And called it a "minor worry".

Lester's weak point is control - BB/9 - but its not as weak as people are making it out t be. His career MLB BB/9 is 4.61 - now, lets assume he improves that, which is a fair assumption given that number takes in his early struggles and is a SSS AND his MiLB BB/9 is 3.78 - well, he's in the neighborhood of lots of pitchers you think of as good - Carlos Zambrano (4.20), Oliver Perez (4.02), Scott Kazmir (3.88), AJ Burnett (3.59), John Maine (3.53), Daisuke (3.52), etc... Phil Hughes career BB/9 = 3.59. Ian Kennedy last year = 4.26. How about this - "Control pitcher" Ian Kennedy has had a minor league career 3.14 BB/9 while Lester was 3.78.

People have made too much out of the fact that Lester walks too many guys - there are loads and loads of guys with as bad control/walk problems as him who are good pitchers in the major leagues. Further, Lester is better than many of those guys at keeping the ball in the park (45% Groundball in MLB, MiLB is unavailable). Lester gets groundballs and doesnt allow HRs. He's going to be a pretty good pitcher. Not in the sexy fireballer mode of Josh Beckett(yead, I said "sexy" what of it?), but as a hardthrowing lefty with good stuff who gets groundballs and keeps the ball in the park. I say Hardthrowing b/c for LHP Lester is a hard thrower. His pitches move a ton. He's still only 23.

He's going to have a decent year and a good career - bank on it. The downside of this guy is still pretty good, and Id definitely wager on the upside. Lets take his career MLB line - 144.1 IP, 11-2, 4.68 ERA, 152 H, 74 BB, 110 K, 10 HR. Guess what? Thats a pretty good season right there - and we're assuming zero improvement in a 23 year old pitcher. Just because an elite pitching prospect has a flaw doesnt mean he isnt going to be a good MLB pitcher. Not everyone can be a Papelbon or Buchholz. If Lester "only" becomes a league average starter - which he is damn close to now - that wont be a dissapointment. That will be a tremendous value. Im sick of this Lester bashing among Sox fans. Its ridiculous. Im not even a big Lester fan, but everyone seems to think the kid has peaked and thats just retarded. Time to wake up and realize what we have here. There is not a friggin team in the league that wouldnt take Jon Lester right now, even if his control isnt elite.

Its a friggin wart, not a fatal flaw.

I love your post, but I'll bet you a case of beer that Lester wins 11 or fewer, and has an ERA over 4.50.

10 wins and a 4.65 ERA = Still a pretty good starting pitcher.

I'm contemplating buying MLB-TV just so I can watch Joba pitch against the Reds tonight. My baseball Jones is starting to kick in. I'm getting the shakes just thinking about the season opening in two weeks over in Japan.

Yanks have been making some minor news over the past few days. Girardi didn't like losing one of his catchers to injury in a home-plate collision during a spring training game. Joe may be wrapped a little too tight right now. Even Don Zimmer, his old pal, the guy who brought him to the Yankees in 1996, had to disagree with Joe's contention that collisions shouldn't happen in ST.

But it's just another non-story. The big story thus far is Phil Hughes seems to be ready to take a leap forward this season. By 2009, he could be the staff ace. Joba does seem ticketed for the bullpen because of innings limitations. A guy on WFAN whom I respect -- Richard Neer -- favors the bullpen for Joba, saying he would prefer the kid impact two or three games per week instead of one.

Yanks may also have found a lefty reliever in Billy Traber, a former No. 1 pick of the Mets who has bounced around. He's ahead of Sean Henn right now for the lefty bullpen job.

It's still only March 10 so I'm trying to stay calm, BBtB.

So he'll pitch three innings in a given week instead of 6 or 7. Color me unimpressed with that argument. And if the Yankees don't have a lead. Joba doesn't have any work.

SP > reliever, Jack. Always.

Except this year when the Yanks have Moose signed for $10M and Joba limited to 140-150 innings. Joba's role this season depends almost entirely on how much Moose has left in his fuel tank. And my guess is he's going to be better than last year. Whether Moose runs out of gas in August is the big question. Because if he does, then that's the perfect time to send Joba down to Scranton to stretch him out for 2 or 3 starts and put him in the rotation for the pennant race, which doesn't really begin until Labor Day in the AL East.

I like the idea that Joba is laying a good foundation for starting during ST. Let's get him up to five innings by the end of the month. Maybe six innings for his last outing. And if Moose or any of the starters get hurt between now and then, Joba can start the season in the rotation. But if everyone is healthy, we're looking at a rotation on March 31 of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Moose and Kennedy.

2009 is the year the kids really take over. I could see the rotation being Hughes, Joba, Wang and Kennedy in '09 and maybe Pettitte if he pitches well this season and wants to open the new Stadium.

Odds are Joba will begin the year in the pen to cap his innings, but if he is pitching better than Moose he should be put in the rotation ahead of him. Trying to position everything so Joba is available as a starter for a playoff run sounds nice, but winning baseball games in the first couple of months of the season is just as important.

I was listening to Francesa on the FAN this afternoon. They're down at camp this week. Yankee fan Mike said the team is not going to reveal anything about its plans for Joba until the end of the month. Of course, we both know that. He talked to Joba and got all the right answers from the kid.

Personally, I think Hawkins and Farnie can carry the first two months. I guess Joba could also start the season in the rotation, maybe a six-man rotation, with the 3 kids skipping an occasional start to limit their innings. Is that a realistic compromise? That plan would put Joba back in the pen for the pennant race in late August and September when my faith in Hawkins and Farnie could be running out.

Here's an informative article on Ian Kennedy:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...ial_heir_t.html

Hokies and Yanks

I just want to say, I'm really looking forward to the game the Yankees are playing against Virginia Tech a week from today.

I will always have respect for King George for that.

And from what I've heard, everyone is going.

For Jackson, from Peter Abraham's blog, on Joba:

And, yes, he will be a starter at some point. Chamberlain maybe threw three curveballs in the majors all last season. [b]Now that we’re seeing it more regularly, it’s obvious why the Yankees want to make him a starter.[/b]

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/

The Mike Francessas of the world need to STFU already. You don't waste a kid like this in the bullpen. You first give him every shot to fail as a SP.

And you need to realize that 2008 is going to be the transition year for Joba. He can start in 2009 and for the next 20 years, as far as I am concerned. But this year is different because of innings limitations and Mike Mussina. Joba's going to spend time in the bullpen, either at the beginning or end of the season.

I agree with your SP premise compared to relievers. But that's not happening this year for Joba. Again, it's all about Moose in 2008. How long will he last?

The best thing about these 2008 Yankees is watching 3 young pitchers with talent trying to transition into key roles. I don't expect Kennedy, for instance, to be a success overnight. But it will be fun watching him figure things out.

I completely understand he's going to have to spend time in the pen due to inning limits. But that's a far cry from those insisting he be made a set up man to eventually succeed Mo. Francessa, for instance, has been waging a campaign to get the team to keep him as a reliever. I know Francessa's a clown, but unfortunately there's more than a few media voices in that town parroting the same line.Jack, great interview with Cash on 'FAN today:http://www.wfan.com/pages/744503.phpThey cover innings limits and Joba as a starter. Good shit.

Yeah, Cashman is the only sane voice I've heard on this subject. I have to look up that interview on their website.

Francesa used to be a reasonable voice on the Yankees. But he became an apologist for Torre, Jeter and everyone else. Too much of a Yankee fan to be objective. He's Waldman in drag, without the tears.

You've shaped my opinion in this Joba argument over the past few months. Now my only question with Joba is do you start him in the pen and then move him into the rotation in August, or try the reverse route? I prefer having him in the rotation come September after throwing around 80 innings out of the pen through August. He might even be under that total if they can limit the two-inning holds.

I would love to see a rotation in September that does not include Moose.

From what little I could get from the Cashman interview, it sounds like they're gonna go the route with Joba starting the season in the pen. Unless I'm taking too much away from that interview, Cash all but said that was the case unless someone gets hurt to start the season.

I wouldn't be surprised if you see a rotation in June that doesn't include Mussina.

This is going to be a very interesting year.

I expect very little from Kennedy. Very little. Mussina, little. Hughes, nothing phenomenal (this year, anyway). Wang has to be figured out sometime, unless he has pictures of Satan in a compromising situation (I've never seen a guy get so much from so little for this long). Pettitte may not handle the pressure he's going to get, IMHO. There is no true #1, or even a #2, if you ask me. Chamberlain's not ready for that role yet. Igawa? Karstens? Little.

Not that our rotation isn't full of its own question marks, but, man, yours has "collapsible" written all over it; the thing that will make the difference is the Yankees' penchant for plucking a Small or Chacon, I have to assume (after years of watching it happen).

The rookies are going to be in position to have to pitch too many innings, I think, guys.

Yanks have a new pitching coach this year, Dave Eiland, who appears much more effective in terms of "fixing" his pitchers than Guidry was over the past two years. I liken Eiland to John Farrell in this regard, a coach who comes in and improves a staff. A novel concept in New York, to be sure.

Eiland has already begun working with Wang on proper mechanics to keep the ball down in the strike zone. It has something to do with his posture as he begins his windup. And he's done something with Farnsworth, setting his hands at the beginning of the windup so that his arm doesn't lag behind, causing the ball to come in flat.

As for the kids, we'll see. Kennedy is pitching well this spring and may have the best head on his shoulders of the three. He comes from a big-time college program and may be closer to succeeding in the big leagues than a lot of people think.

I agree with your last line, though, SSA. If these kids do good in the first half of the season, and the pennant race is close, as expected, how do you limit their innings?

Keep copies of the NY Post away from Hank during the season. I'm semi-serious, here.

I do respect your new manager and pitching coach. Greatly.

Couldn't stop Hank's old man, don't expect to stop Hank. I think he'll focus more on the Mets than the Red Sox during the season. Girardi and Cashman will back him off the Red Sox-baiting. It's all about the back pages, of course.

Jeter was on the radio today, giving a rare interview. Asked about the difference between Torre's camps and Girardi's, he downplayed things, as usual, but did allow as how the new staff pays more attention to the details. When asked about starting faster this season, he kiddingly said "We needed a good challenge the last two years. That's why we started slow." It took Angry Puppy Russo a few seconds to figure out he was being toyed with.

Agree on Kennedy. I expect him to start the best of the three kids... then get progressively worse as the league sees him a couple times. I think he's going to be overrated by fans and on sportscenter by May 1st because of a hot start. I think he will then regress and end up with an ERA around 4.5-4.6, which is still pretty good. He has the kind of stuff that gets killed once the weather gets hot, IMHO.

Probably a fair scenario. AL hitters will adjust to Kennedy and then he'll have to readjust. That's what the game is about for a lot of hitters and pitchers when they first arrive in the big leagues.

Hughes will be the best of the three this year. He's a year ahead of the other two in terms of MLB experience. He learned some hard lessons last year, mostly about pitching mechanics. The hamstring injury came about because he altered his delivery to get more on a pitch (with a no-hitter at stake).

Hughes might win 15 games this year, maybe more if the Yankees' lineup hits behind him. Sky's the limit for this kid.

Here's the thing - Hughes should have just as much trouble hitting his inning limit as Joba. The missed time due to injury kept his innings low in 07.

His career IP totals look like this (and remember 30 IP is around the limit of what youd like to jump him):

2004: 5 (Signed and then pitched in three games - and Im not looking up his college numbers)
2005: 86.1
2006: 146
2007: 110.1

Lets say you can get 150 IP out of him... that's still not a full season of starts. IMHO, for him to win 15 games he'll have to win pretty much every time he starts. Something like 15 out of 23 starts or something like that. I think thats a little optimistic, but maybe not too much.

Im still in the camp that thinks Hughes is a good measure better than Joba(both right now and as a "prospect"). So I agree the sky is the limit. I am interested as to why we hear sooooo much about protecting Joba in 08 when Hughes is essentially the same problem. In fact, of the two Hughes was the one who lost significant time to injury last year. Ive heard nothing about the Yankees protecting Hughes so far, though I imagine they have a plan.

Kennedy I initially thought would be a problem, but he should be good for 30 starts this season.

That's why Moose is so important to the Yankees this season. I have faith that he can give them 150 innings before wearing down. He should probably be on an innings limit, too, for his own good. I could see a six-man rotation as some kind of option, or certainly rotating skipped starts for each of the four behind Pettitte and Wang, who should be workhorses again this year.

I'll be holding my breath this season, hoping the starters stay healthy. Yankee fans don't worry about the lineup on the field. It's always about the pitching. This year, for a change, there is an upside because of the kids. But the innings limits for all 3 kids make this a transitional year in the pitching department. Guiding the staff through that transition is the job of Dave Eiland, Girardi and Cashman, not to mention minor league director Nardy Contreras, who installed the "Joba Rules" last August.

I'm really excited about Eiland. He should be a great help to acclimating the kids to their first full major leagues seasons and he seems to be helping Wang too. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...s_yankees_.htmlI don't think a six man rotation is the way to go, although I agree that the Yanks need to be creative when it comes to limiting the innings for Hughes, Kennedy and Moose (to an extent). Hughes will have the lowest limit so I wonder if they'll limit him to 5 inning starts for a while or if they'll skip some starts later in the season.

That's low. The Yankees can probably get about 180 out of Hughes. The projection for innings shouldn't be based off of an injury shortened season (a leg injury at that. If it was his arm, you'd have a point.) He's already demonstrated he can withstand approximately 150 IP. There is no reason if he's healthy he can't take a 30 inning bump.

The Torre Era really is officially dead:



http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/03/12/yank...-the-live-blog/

Thank God for Joe Girardi as manager. Last year the Yanks wouldn't have retaliated because it would show a lack of "class". Finally the Yanks fight back.

Yeah, this team will have a different personality with Girardi managing. Until Joba came along, they didn't even have a pitcher on the staff who would dust hitters off. I don't expect the regulars to get involved in this stuff during a spring training game but there could be some fireworks during the season.

Shelly Duncan is like the enforcer in hockey, eh?

Shelly Duncan is like the enforcer in hockey, eh?
[/quote]

Do you mean mostly useless except for to defend the stars? Nice use of a roster spot...

(just kidding Jackson)