What numbers would Manny have to put up for us to take his option?

Here are his VORPs with Boston:

2001: 61
2002: 68
2003: 69
2004: 60
2005: 61
2006: 60
2007: 34

(Wow, I knew the guy was consistent... but THAT consistent??)

So let's say if we can expect Manny to be mostly Manny next year, we'd sign him up for another $20 mil. So what, 55? 50? Let's say we'd want him to be around 55 VORP this year to project to be worth the cheddar next year. His 60-VORP seasons were '04 and '06. 2004 he put up a line of .308/.397/.613 and 2006 was .321/.439/.619 (in only 130 games).

I think we can only expect 130 games from him this year, too. Something around .300/.400/.600 would probably be a no-brainer to pick up, even if that SLG drops to .550 or so. If it's .275/.375/.600 I'd keep him too. If it's something like .275/.375/.550 I would start to be concerned. Anything less than that (or anything severely less than 130 games) and I am really reluctant, but still probably pick up the option. (I mean, what are the alternatives?)

But I think that might be my comfort limit. 130 games, .275/.375/.550.

First of all, as noted elsewhere, the guy is on pace to drive in 648 runs. It's not just that, though: he is also on pace to do 162 post game interviews. There's no way you don't pick up the option on a superstar media darling.

The scenarios in which you don't pick up the option:

1. Good Vibe Manny goes away and Bad Vibe Manny makes his triumphant return.

2. A suitable long term replacement becomes available.

3. He has a healthy Manny-caliber year that convinces the Sox to throw out the options and negotiate a 3 or 4 year extension at more total $$ but less annual $$ instead.

4. He has an injury plagued year.

You do pick up the option:

Your 130 games sounds about right as a health-o-meter. Anything above 30 HR, 100 RBI, .300 BA, .400 OBP, or .500 SLG - any of the above, not even necessarily all - I think you're pretty well obligated to pick up the option regardless of cost unless, again, a suitable long term replacement becomes readily available.

Below those thresholds, it's too early to say. It's all about who replaces him if you don't pick up the option. Nothing wrong with overpaying a .280, 25 HR guy for a season if your next best alternative is to move a Youkilis type guy into a power spot in the lineup.

Unless he is injured or suffers a sever drop in production (think .270 hitter with only @ 20 HR) then you pick up the option without a doubt. Worst case scenario is that you have control over him and can trade him to another team (with his permission because of 10/5 rights). If you do want to keep him then you slightly over pay for the benefit of only having the risk of a one year contract.

The best targets this offseason for offense are probably going to be Teixeira and Dunn and both can play 1B and Dunn can also play LF, so you could presumably have both (Manny and one of those guys) and have a little bump in payroll for 2009.

Given what OFs are going for on the open market (Drew, Matthews Jr., Hunter) I think unless he completely tanks or has some horrific injury you have to re-sign Manny at all costs. Picking up his options one-by-one might not be a bad idea, unless he has a remarkable season this year and wants to sign a contract that allows him to finish his career here.

If he has a .320/40/120+ year you look into locking him down for a few years.
If he has a .300/30/100+ year you definitely take the option or consider locking him down.
If he has a .285/25/90+year you're in that gray area where you need to consider that type of value vs. the cost of obtaining a replacement. The Sox really don't have anyone that can step in and replace that (Brandon Moss is a 4th OF on a contending club in my estimation), so perhaps keeping Manny around and seeing what some of the younger guys develop into might not be a bad idea.

Basically, I see very few scenarios where the Sox pass on what is now not that bad of a contract. Funny how these things work out in the long term, eh?

Manny hit .296 with 20 HRs this year... I agree with the rest of your assessment.



I cant imagine them picking up his options together or early. There is zero reason to do so in any scenario. We hold all the cards and we gain no advantage by picking up the options an hour before we have to. The most advantageous scenario for the club is to let his options play out and wait to the last second to decide each time.

I also cant at all imagining them locking him up for multiple years. Theyre not going to get into the kind of contract Manny seems to want with a player his age. This is Manny's age 36 season(May birthday, fwiw). The club has been extremely averse to signing players that age to multi year deals. There is just no way we extend him once the options are done, IMHO. Its just too improbable. His defense has always been a problem and he's getting to the age where it will likely drop off even further. His offense has become a little bit of a question mark now(although I expect him to rake this year - and on a separate issue he looked like vintage Manny, hitting with authority to all fields, taking the ball the other way with power one AB and pulling a hard double down the line in another).

The simple fact is that in all likelihood Manny Ramirez will be a Red Sox through the 2010 season and then move on. He will be a 38 year old DH looking for a job at that point. To sign a player with his skillset to an extension is the antithesis of the way Theo does things.

EDIT: Who need spellcheck when you have Rominer...

Averse, too.

Clearly a multi-year extension isn't likely.

For it even to be tempting, Manny would have to put up a monster Manny-in-his-prime season. But on the other hand, the primary reason to do an extension now would be to knock the AAV down from the impending $20 million level. I'm not sure that goal is compatible with trying to sign Manny after a big year.

If the guy puts up similar numbers to last year, then he's clearly in decline and a future risk, but clearly also worth the money for next year if a longer term replacement isn't available.

If he puts up Manny '98-'06 type numbers, though, then it comes down to what Manny wants. If he'd trade two individual $20 million option years for 3 guaranteed $15 million years and 4th year option...it's still not a no-brainer at his age, by any means. It would warrant consideration, though.

I guess I could see something like Manny playing out the first option and then tearing up his second option and agreeing on a two year deal for a lower per year price(15?), perhaps with a vesting option.

That's the most generous kind of offer I could possibly see the Sox doing. The issue is can anyone see Scott Boras letting him do that? Not a chance.

I didn't want to start yet another Manny thread, and this article seems more relevant to this thread.

Anyway, here's a really good article on our LFer:

Link

It's an MLB.com article, but has a lot of stuff in it that reminds me why I love that guy so much.

Last night (5/2/08) Manny swung at a 3-0 pitch. Last year I think I remember hearing that Manny had never swung in a 3-0 count in a Red Sox uniform. Is this the first time he's done it with us?

Reason being, he seems to be pressing a little lately. Big swings, chasing balls out of the zone, etc. Even though he says he doesn't care, maybe he's trying to get 500 out of the way.

I was as shocked as anyone. I don't know if it was the first time, but it's the first time I can remember. In particular, the first time I can remember since Ortiz came here – because it's a noticeable contrast. Ortiz will almost always take a big rip 3-0 if the pitcher dares throw one down the middle. Manny, never.

Maybe he's pressing a little. Seems to me he got on base in the 9th inning of both of those walkoff wins earlier in the week, though, so I don't know if he is. But up by 4 runs, with a chance to tack on another 4, and with 500 looming, I can see why he might take an uncharacteristic 3-0 rip. I bet if it's a one run game, he watches that one go by.

I just found the feature on the Globe.com site tracking manny's 496 HR. It lists each one of them, date, time, pitcher, count, where landed.
Really cool.
It's amazing how his power is from pole to pole.

On the same site, it lists him having 4 careen hr. on a 3-0 count, although none since he came to Boston:

I'm pretty sure that Manny swung at a 3-0 pitch from Mike Mussina in New York back in April. It must have been in his non-HR AB against him that day, unless I am remembering incorrectly.

Castiglione said that Manny had only swung on 3-0 once last season, but didn't give the instance. You very well may be remembering correctly.

The amazing part of that is aside from the 3-0 count, he's hit anywhere from 30-50 HR on average. The next lowest was 3-1, with 19 HR, but there is such a dropoff between the two.

I was surprised to see that he has 78 HR on 0-0 counts. He doesn't seem like he swings that early in the count often. What wasn't surprising was the 175 HRs he has with a two-strike count. Manny has always seemed to not fear being in a two-strike count.

Look, I'm a little drunk, but I think you have to be a little drunk to experience the truth of Manny:

Has there ever been a better pure right-handed hitter? I mean, you can make an argument for ARod and Pujols and then who? Joe DiMaggio? He's certainly in the discussion. Of COURSE you pick up the 1-year option!!!! What's the downside now - 35 VORP?

The upside's an MVP or something. The dude's a unique talent.

Aaron, Mays, Hornsby, Foxx, Thomas, Greenberg, Bagwell. All were better than Manny, in that order(ish) descending...Pujols looks like he'll be up there with the top four guys, ARod is a shade better than Manny. But yeah, Manny's a HOF lock top-40-of-all-time kind of guy.

Than, did you just say Jeff Bagwell is better than Manny Ramirez?

I was just going to post the exact same thing. That is a ridiculous statement.

Just as a quick comparison:



Hardly "ridiculous", is it? They are very close, as my napkin ranking above implied...I'm actually surprised that the baseball world seems to have forgotten that for most of the 1990s Bagwell and Frank Thomas were two of the best hitters in the history of the game.

First thing I thought of when I read that.

I make that point all the time about Frank Thomas. He is so easily forgotten in the shadow of Bonds and Griffey. Thomas, in his prime, was probably only second to Bonds at the time. I guess the difference between Manny and Bags is that Bags fell off the face of the Earth after age 35, whereas Manny still hits well, so perhaps going forward the edge goes to Manny?

But as far as watching a guy day in and day out and how he approaches hitting, Manny is an absolute delight and is a hitting genius. You know, if that counts for anything.

Just looking through free agents to be, alternatives to picking up Manny's option.

LF: Burrell, Dunn
RF: Abreu, Bradley

Not a lot to choose from on the free agent market, though both Burrell and Bradley are having pretty good seasons. Barring a trade for a younger OF, seems almost certain the Sox pick up the option, but worth keeping an eye on none the less.

*cough* Steroids *cough*

Burrell and Dunn are those rare guys who wouldn't represent any kind of defensive upgrade over Manny.

Dunn doesn't even like baseball.

I was a little but surprised looking at Burrell's numbers, though...I always thought of him as a guy who has been very inconsistent from year to year. I guess that's just a lingering impression from when he followed up his best season (2002) with his worst. The last 4 years, he's actually been very consistent.

If Bradley puts together an good 2nd half this year, that wouldn't be a half bad idea. His salary demands would probably be through the roof. Any idea on who represents him?

(I'd still rather pick up Manny's option, personally)

I think all four of those are too flawed to invest the big money it would take to get them. I cant see Theo doing it.

Dunn- Not actually an OFer
Burrell - Old, Bad in the OF
Abreu - Old. Best fit, but will cost a ton
Bradley - Behavior issues... which I think have been overrated, but would nonetheless scare me off if I was running a team.

Im really warming to the idea of Youk to LF and sign a 1B.

Levinson Brothers, according to Cot's.

Is he finally putting it together at age 30? Or is he just finally playing in a ballpark the size of my Little League field? His road numbers are decent (.862 OPS). But his home numbers are outrageous right now - .830 SLG.

If he's figuring life out, that would help. We don't need to find the next Carl Everett.

Well, of course, but I didn't want to get into that. Although I did find it interesting that once the heat cranked up on the steroid issue it was the same time that Bagwell slowly faded into Bolivian.

For those who want Manny back next year I have to ask, what do the Red Sox do after next year? Manny is a horrible defender, injury prone, old and has worse numbers (still good) than Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell. I don't see the point in bringing Manny back unless he is a stop-gap to someone else, which he clearly would not be. Plus, I don't think Adam Dunn is going to be all that pricey since teams under-value his abilities (see Toronto) and is a DH (like Manny).

The biggest thing that recommends Manny is that it is a one year commitment. If we had the option of signing any of the alternatives to one year deals I would likely favor those. Huge multi-year deals carry a ton of risk, and that's part of the cost of acquiring one of those big bats through free agency.

A real issue with Manny is his durability. Even with his heavy workouts at API last winter - workouts that I understood were geared toward preventing hammie pulls - he's having bigger problems than ever this year. Think how many games he would have missed this year if not for the Papi injury, which has allowed him to DH.

You have to figure the extra candle he'll have on his birthday cake in 09 means he'll be that much more likely to have hammie or other injury problems.

Despite this, I think they pick up the option. As others have pointed out, there's not a premier guy on the market this winter The RS have the luxury of being able to ride with Manny on a one-year deal and then seeing what the FA and trade markets look like the next winter. Having so much young, cheap pitching helps them out here. It allows them to use whatever trade and monetary bullets they have for a hitter.

The other thing about Manny's option is that it is followed by ANOTHER option year. If Manny keeps on hitting at a decent clip and staying in the lineup, the Sox can keep him on a year to year basis for quite some time. Most of the risk on multi-year deals comes from the years at the back end of the contract. Being able to go year to year with a player of Manny's caliber avoids the downside risk of signing someone to a superstar level salary and then getting several years of less than superstar performance.

I mean, ignoring the possibility of severe injury, Manny's realistic downside next year is maybe 280/370/470 over 120 games or so. But maybe he'll still go nuts and slug 600. There aren't many people around who can do that. Just go year to year with him. It's hard to go wrong.

you're assuming HE'D be ok with going year to year.
I have a feeling the "forget the options, I want a 4-year deal" demand is coming.

In just a few plays I saw in the Cinci - Sox series, Dunn made Manny look like Yaz. Well, not exactly, but Dunn can't move, at all. Abreu in a Boston uni... Only desperate teams take the risk of Bradley. Burrell, as you say. As for Youk, move a gold glove first baseman? I wouldn't, plus, he's quick but slow, not what you want starting off fresh with a new left fielder. Keep Manny, I guess, until someone better comes along. Or, if he bails or leaves otherwise, an OF of Ells, Coco and JD? Get Coco on something (weights?) to get more power out of him. Tough one.

Edit, Dunn plays for the Reds.

Honestly, Youk in LF and Teix at 1B would be a huge defensive upgrade overall. Teix is a bit more athletic than Youk, probably better range. Not sure how Youk's arm compares to Manny. Offense, also, would probably be an upgrade all thing considered.

Do I want to have Teix locked up in a 6-8 year Boras 'tract? Not really, no.

The best thing for this team might be to have Manny stay a year and in 2010, hope Lars Anderson is ready to play 1B or LF. Or Josh Reddick. Another option is for when Manny leaves, use stopgap LF'ers for a bit to see if a great player goes to FA or the trade market in 2010.

Manny's two biggest hits lately have been to Youkilis head and now the traveling secretary. One more incident and they'll decline the option and spend it elsewhere. There is only so much of him they will take. For $20 million, they can find a hitter.

Really? Care to offer your opinion as to why?

Given the fact that a team meeting needed to be called to sort issues out with Youkilis, you can't chalk that one up to being an issue with Manny. Teams have put up with more issues with lesser talented players. Until a supreme hitter falls into the lap of the Sox I fully expect to see Manny in a Red Sox uniform.

That's really the ultimatum they gave him?


Yesterday, Manny was 2-4 yesterday w/ a HR & on the day (6/5) he pushed Youk, 2-5 with 5 RBI.
Maybe he should be pushing someone everyday....

What are Youk's splits when he spends half the game arguing with umpires?

For that analysis, wouldn't we just use his regular splits & take them at face value?

maybe he's not worth $20 million and is becoming more and more of a problem. you can't blame this one on youkilis.

That's very in-depth. Thank you for sharing.

No, the biggest thing is that it's two one-year commitments.

If THE long term replacement is available, you're not going to get him by offering fewer than three years...and that will still be the case two years from now after picking up Manny's '09 and '10 options. But having two separate one year commitments available buys that much more time to develop the in-house options, to explore trade possibilities, or simply to say "none of this year's FAs are good enough to replace Manny...let's see what next year brings."

Unless a star does rise out of the Sox system, at some point you're going to have to take that risk with a longer-term commitment. When and if there's someone out there who's sufficiently worth the risk, you take it. In the meantime, it's convenient to be able to look at the free agent crop without having an immediate need to fill. Having the option years allows the Sox to be more selective in choosing Manny's replacement.

That is good. Otherwise, you end up paying Manny to stay here until he's 43...or you end up with Jose Offerman.

___

On a slightly off topic note with Manny: He clearly can still hit. But for 2-3 years now, he's had trouble catching up with the 98-99mph heat from guys like Farnsworthless, or Valverde yesterday. But these jackasses, after blowing a couple of fastballs by him to get ahead 0-2, insist on throwing all their junk pitches. Next thing you know, it's 3-2. He fouls off a fastball. They come back with more junk. He walks. And that's assuming they don't hang a breaking ball that he launches into the 18th row before getting that deep into the count.

Why would you throw him anything but the fastball if you throw that hard? What's the worst that happens? He fouls it off? That still puts you in better shape than if you throw your AA breaking ball a foot off the plate for a ball...and much better shape than when you make a mistake with something he can catch up to.

The problem for these pitchers is that at some point Manny will make an adjustment and deposit that fastball into the seats. Perhaps they're hiding the pitches well or whatever, but if he is just a little late, and it isn't a product of a slowing bat (haven't really seen this reported at all), then it is only a matter of time before he makes that little adjustment that he needs to and starts blasting fastballs all over the field. This is what he has done his whole career and it is why he is fantastic hitter.

Now if his bat speed is actually slowing down it will be a different story entirely. That could be troubling. Perhaps I've missed it, but if anyone out there has seen anything referring to this, please post it.

This is just my eyes, but he has seemed routinely overmatched over the past year or two against those upper 90s fastballs.

Like, "no chance" overmatched.

Could he adjust? Maybe. Maybe the issue isn't bat speed, but just timing.

Just the same, though, you're not getting him to chase a slider a foot off the plate. You're probably not getting him to miss the breaking ball that you hang in the middle of the plate. I can understand wasting a pitch on 0-2 so he can't sit on the fastball.

It just seems like pitchers help Manny be the great 2 strike hitter that he is by being afraid to put him away. He's not going to help you. So why would you want to help him? If I could throw 99, I'd throw him 99 until he shows me that he can catch up with it.

Even if his bat has slowed down a little, and I tend to agree with you that it has, if you feed him nothing but straight heat then he'll just time it and crush it.

And looking bad against 99 mph fastballs doesn't really make him any different from practically every other hitter in MLB.

Yes. And Yes. Of course. Not to belabor the point...but, fine. You can't throw him 10 fastballs in a row and get away with it. I understand that. But what's the point of getting ahead 0-2 if you're not going to put him away? 3-2 is too late to be dipping back into that well. The approach these power guys take against him is so predictable – and they all seem to do the exact same thing. A lot of times they do get the K - but it takes them twice as many pitches to get there as it should. Again, the day I see him turn on a 98mph fastball, I'll re-think the approach. But it's stupid to put yourself in a position of having to throw a strike to a guy with his plate discipline when he can't even touch your best stuff. Talk about squandering your one and only advantage.

I think, rominer, that you'll find that this approach to pitching (get ahead, then try to get the batter out on low-risk, out-of-the-strike-zone stuff) is endemic throughout baseball. I guess it's some form of risk-mitigation...take the advantage you've gained by getting ahead in the count and hope that the batter swings at something he can't hit solidly.

Maybe the reason you notice it more with Manny is that he's in the minority of batters who will lay off those junk pitches, rarely getting rung up on them, therefore driving the count full and demonstrating that against HIM, it may be a better strategy to go right after him.

Let's see what the numbers say on Manny for 2008:

Number of 2-0 counts: 51
Number of 1-1 counts: 129
Number of 0-2 counts: 60

So it looks as if Manny is willing to take at least one strike, and pitchers know this and more often than not get one over in the first two pitches.

So does Manny do better at hanging around after falling behind 0-2 than the rest of MLB? Is his reputation as a great two-strike hitter warranted?

OPS/sOPS+ after 2-0: 1.116/125
OPS/sOPS+ after 1-1: .752/119
OPS/sOPS+ after 0-2: .729/209

sOPS+ is the normalization of that split's OPS against MLB. What this demonstrates is that Manny is a better than average hitter in any of these situations, but he really does outperform MLB by a wide margin after falling behind 0-2. So, is that because of the nibbling syndrome I hypothesized, or because he simply battles by not being over-anxious? That I can't tell you, but given that pitchers sure do like to nibble (the fact that there's an ubiquitous term "waste pitch" is incredible to me) I suspect Manny just out-waits the nibblers until they have to come back into the strike zone.

So, I'm with you rominer...if I'm an opposing pitching coach my game plan with Manny is to pound the strike zone if there's no one on base, and deal with RISP situations as they come up (based upon who is batting #5, Fenway vs. road, etc).

I'm pretty sure that I saw a study before (probably at BP or the hardball times) that rated the batting eye of individual batters. It came out that Manny is somewhat better than league average at avoiding chasing pitches out of the zone. However, pitchers were EXTREMELY averse to throwing him anything in the zone. They're scared of him.

I think the fear of the hitter and the hitter's reputation tends to lag a bit behind a decrease in skills as the player gets old. But I think Manny probably has a few years left in him before you no longer have to be afraid, even if he ain't as scary as he was in 2001 at this point.

I think youre seeing the times when Manny was looking for a curve. He has a pitch in mind every time and only tries to foul it off if it isnt what he wanted and in the zone/quadrant he was looking. I think youre describing one of those times he was looking curve and couldnt catch up to the heater. I dont think its a question of diminished ability... youre just as likely to see him jump on a 98mph fastball and crush it 430 feet. He's been a guess hitter for a long time...

...also, he's still a scumbag and I cant wait for him to be off this team even though people will still defend this jerk no matter what he does. Maybe one day people will put it all together and realize there wasnt some conspiracy to make Manny look bad - in fact, its the opposite. Much of the crap he gets away with is covered up. He's childish and annoying, and i feel that most of the people that adore him would grow to hate his eccentric qualities very quickly were they teammates of his. He's not all bad, but he has some very bad qualities. I realize he will be worshiped in this town forever, but the more I learn about the guy the more I cant stand him and his act and his ignorant ways. I still cheer when he hits a HR and all, and I do hope they'll pick up his option, but make no mistake - Manny Ramirez is a first class scumbag.