March 25
5IP 2 ER 2 H 5 BB 6 K

April 1 (W)
6.2 IP 1 ER 2 H 0 BB 9 K

April 8 (W)
6.2 IP 0 ER 4 H 4 BB 7 K

Season (2-0)
18.1 IP 3 ER 8 H 9 BB 22 K - 1.47 ERA 0.94 WHIP

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The walks are still touchy, but he hasn't lost his composure which was what did him in last year. He also appears to be throwing a lot more fastballs the first time through the order, then opening it up a bit afterwards. One of his biggest problems last season was that he could breeze through guys the first time, but then they figured him out later in the game and made him pay. There were a lot of fastballs today, and he was able to move them around the plate pretty efficiently. The free passes are going to hurt him eventually though. Oakland start exempted he's walked 9 guys in 11.2 innings. SSS applies, as the flip side of that is in 1/3 of his body of work he walked no one and struck out a batter every inning. The one thing I think is clear is that he appears more confident in himself on the mound. Last year you could see his face sink when he got into trouble, and he talked himself out of relying on his stuff, and tried to nibble, much to his detriment. Impressions of Daisuke three starts in?

One thing. Tito needs to pull him quicker than he did today. He was absolutely gassed at the end of last season, and I think pulling him after six innings was the obvious choice. Not second guessing him, just throwing it out there that they should save some bullets for the rest of the season, even though he didn't throw an excessive number of pitches.

He looks significantly better than last year, mainly due to mixing up his pitches like you mentioned. I also think he will be better off now that he has had a year to adjust to the language, food, culture, travel, etc. He's definitely off to a great start, I didn't want to get too excited after his second start against Oakland because that was an awful lineup he faced, seeing him shut down the Tigers lineup today is a great sign, I don't care if they're struggling, those guys are good. Like you said, he needs to cut down on the walks, but the good news is no one is making solid contact off of him so he's been able to stand a lot of runners. If he can throw like this all year, it is not too much of a reach to say he might throw 200 innings, rack up 200 Ks, and win 20 games. Hopefully he can keep it up.

If he continues to establish one pitch early (so far it has been the fastball; I would expect that to be the one most of the time, but not always), and then work the other pitches in around that pitch, the walks will go down a bit -- simply because he'll start getting some calls. Umpires did a grand total of maybe 3 favors for him in the entire 2007 season. His "throw everything, establish nothing, and look unhappy when he didn't get the calls" approach didn't help him in that regard, of course.

But you can make your own strike zone, to a degree, when you're consistent and when you set the parameters early. If he continues with the approach he's had in the past two games, he's going to start getting some calls that weren't there for him last year.

I agree, it seems like he is trying to re-write the book that is out on him. Use his fastball as the base of his repertoire and sprinkle in his change and cutter as necessary. The walks are still there, but he is going to take a solid step forward this year. My goal for him this year was a 3.75 ERA, which seems very possible. Let's see how he looks against the Yanks this weekend; no Jeter and Posada will probably help a lot.

Summation: So far, so good.

I think we're just seeing a pitcher with improved control this year. He has dialed his fastball down a bit and is spotting it where he wants.

Its sort of circular reasoning, but my take is:

-Japan you have to throw out b/c of the travel, kid being born, and the whole national hero thing.

-Today, the problem was the worst umpire in baseball was behind home plate. I dont understand how Greg Gibson draws these games all the time, but he is just an awful balls and strike umpire. He has one strength - he takes a lot of s*** before he'll throw a guy out... but he's good at taking s*** from guys b/c he gets so much practice - and deservedly so. I thought Dice was actually pretty sharp control-wise today.

Persuasive arguments could be made to the contrary, but I do believe the season will bear this out.

He's still getting squeezed a bit. There were a few calls today that clearly should have been strikes.

Captain obvious says: If he can keep the walks down, he will get squeezed less, and his numbers will look that much better.

The thing is, that isn't even quite what we're seeing. He faced 27 batters today, threw 108 pitches, 62 for strikes. That's 4 P/PA, 57.4% strike percentage. Hard to believe with all the wasted pitches he threw last year, but both are worse than what he averaged last year (3.94 P/PA, 65% strikes).

He's still working too hard to get outs, he's still missing with a lot of pitches, he's still trying to be too fine. But I would guess (don't have the numbers, so I could be completely wrong) that he threw more first pitch strikes in the last two starts than he typically did last year. Starting out ahead is a luxury for any pitcher, but especially for a guy like Daisuke who tends to nibble, tends to overthrow the fastball when he's trying to put hitters away, and does have command issues with some of his pitches.

His control hasn't been as good as it has seemed...but at the same time, I think there's a reason why it has seemed better than we remember it being last year.

I only saw his first two starts against Oakland, but for me, this biggest difference for Matsuzaka this year manifested itself in both games - the changeup. He seems to have figured out the proper grip on the MLB-standard baseball to control his changeup and throw it for strikes, as opposed to having it tail up and away (from a LHH, into a RHH's eye socket) like one of Papelbon's wilder fastballs. That single pitch is the biggest difference for him, and allows him to dial down the fastball a little bit to increase his control. Thus, even in games when he has no control of his curve/slider (like early on in the season opener in Japan), he still has two pitches to use, whereas last season he only had the fastball/cutter, and nothing else. Having three usable pitches on a bad day is exactly what we were hoping to get out of Matsuzaka when he was signed, and it looks like he has made the proper adjustments to get to that point.

For the record, though, I only saw the last out of the top of the 8th, the bottom of the 8th, and the top of the 9th of yesterday's game, so I have no idea if he was using the changeup as well as he had in his first two starts.

I only caught bits and pieces of them games myself, but reading this I think you are pretty accurate. I did catch him throw a change yesterday that was absolutely vicious; he set up with two fastballs in, then threw the change which had a nasty break for a swinging strike three (like I said, I only caught bits and pieces but IIRC it was to Magglio Ordonez).

I also agree with the sentiment that he is still being squeezed a bit. His problem last season was that there were times he wouldn't even be close, so when it was borderline, he wouldn't get the calls. Establishing the fastball, he may give up a few more hits from time to time, but if he shows he has command of the strikezone he will also get more of the calls on the edge.

Another thing to mention about Daisuke is that his opponents' BABIP in those three starts is .095, so he should, as they say, regress to the mean a bit as the season progresses.

Them games was good. You missed out.

Thats what I get for trying to post in two different threads at once.

50% Gibson
50% His pitches move a ton

I can buy that, more or less.

But, then, I don't think that the positive results have been a product of control so much as a product of vastly improved game plan and understanding of/confidence in how he can use his arsenal of pitches to get MLB hitters out.

It's too early to tell if it's really a new Dice...especially after facing a minor league lineup and a winless (albeit very good, we assume) team. Definitely looks like a different pitcher, though.

April 13 (W)
5.0 IP 4 ER 4 H 6 BB 2 K

Morgan is an idiot, but one thing he was correct about is that Matsuzaka really has no clue how to pitch with a lead. He was pretty bad after we roughed up The Greatest Prospect in History ™ and it seemed like he was teetering on the edge of a full implosion. Lucky for them he avoided it, but yesterday was his worst outing of the season by far.

This is very true. Dice-K looked like he was afraid to make a mistake, so he was trying to make perfect pitches, even though he was up 7-1.

Lets hope that this start is an abbarition, not a foretelling of whats to come.

Not much to say, other than that Matsuzaka couldn't seem to throw strikes. The fact that he wasn't knocked out after 3 innings is more of a testament to how much the Yankees lineup is slumping right now than it is to any display of skill from Matsuzaka last night. It's amazing that if Coco doesn't misplay a flyout into a double for Matsui, he might have only allowed 2 or 3 ER over 5-6 IP, in spite of having zero control whatsoever for the entire game.

As frustrating as this was, as of right now I'm not too worried. I said it before the game that the Yankees lineup is the worst possible matchup for Daisuke. Not only can they all hit well, they're also a very patient group of hitters. Then couple that with the cold and Daisuke's tendency to nibble. Daisuke's next three starts should be at home against Texas, at home against LAA (the team with by far the lowest P/PA in the baseball), then in Toronto.

Hopefully he pitches well in the near future, then by the next time the Yankees come into town he trusts his stuff more and shows what he can do

It's not all bad. Sure he gave up a ton of walks and had trouble finding the zone but he still battled through it and pitched well enough for us to win. It was clear that it wasn't just his control that was lacking but all the snap with which his pitches are usually thrown. He just didn't have it last night, plain and simple and he still held in check a pretty solid lineup. I think there is something to be said for that. Sometimes pitchers just don't have it, but they can battle through it and pitch well enough to win. Thats how Dice-K was and frankly I'm pretty pleased with it.

I don't like digging into the exucses about weather, but neither pitcher seemed to have much command yesterday and I assume that might be due to the cold last night. Hughes wasn't even close with his fastball, which seems strange since it is his best pitch (and what is even more strange is that his curve looked great). Meanwhile, the Diceman had similar problems getting his fastball over the plate. He looks to me like he's trying to be a finesse pitcher, even though he has power pitcher stuff. Lots of nibble, very little bite. It makes no sense because he has the arsenal to go after guys and then make them look silly on his change or chasing his breaking stuff. How long before hitters start sitting on his fastball ala Beckett ca. 2006?

Love, it's not an excuse when your manager says "It wasn't baseball weather"

It's not, period.

I stand by my prediction; Dice-K wins the 08 Cy Young, just beating out Beckett. How's that for a 1-2?

If it is not baseball weather, maybe the greedy executives should not show a April game in Fenway Park at night. In April show the Angels or another California team. Don't start a game that should start at 1pm at 8pm. TV ratings should not control everything.

How would you guys rate Daisuke? Would you rate him a 1 being as Ace, Or a 5 being an end of a rotation pitcher? Right now I would say he is no better than a number 3. To me, this team needs to find a number 2 pitcher behind Beckett, who who is effective and is an innings eater. The bull pen is going to get killed with Dicek followed by Lester if they don't switch it soon.

Dice K has to be a number two at worst, IMHO. Look around the league...

He's 4-0, leading the AL in wins. He struck out 200 guys last year with a 4.40 ERA... He's durable and eats a ton of innings. He's not the sexiest pitcher to watch, but the results are pretty good.

He is too much of a nibbler and for whatever reason I don't think he is getting the borderline strike calls. I think he needs to be more aggressive in the strike zone. Because if he continues to pitch like he has been, he is going to be taxing the bullpen for 3+ innings per start or throw so many pitches that he is going to be out of gas at the end of the year.

He isn't getting hit terribly hard but because of the walks he is allowing too many base runners right now. I would say you could consider him a #3 at best right now. His Win/Loss record is less relevant then the other stats, as this is largely the product of run support in the last 3 games.

Here's a very quick and dirty ranking of Daisuke in the rotation.

Last year his VORP was 37.0, ranking him 38th among starters. If you figure number 15 (Javier Vasquez) your middle of the pack number 1 starter, 30 (Ian Snell) is your middle of the pack number 2 starter, and 45 (Greg Maddux) is your middle of the pack number 3 starter, then Daisuke is somewhere between a 2 and a 3.

If you want a rate stat, Daisuke ranked 28th in the AL last year in simple ERA (I gave up looking for ERA+ rankings). If you use the same method, that puts Daisuke in about the same range as before.

Obviously this is a very basic analysis, but its somewhat insightful

He was a solid No. 2 the first half of last year but at this point he's a 3. He simply doesn't give you enough innings or consistency to be more than that.

Think of it this way: Did anyone here feel great about him pitching game 7 of the ALCS last year? I didn't. As it turned out, he gave us five respectable innings and Tito knew when to get him out of there, so it worked out. But a legit No. 2 inspires confidence, not trepidation, going into a huge game.

Here's another way to look at how Daisuke stands. This is a bit preemptive, but since 24Red Sox stated that the team needed a better number 2 starter rather than better starting pitching as a whole, it's a fair way to answer his question.

Here's a look at the other number 2 starters of playoff contenders in the American League, basically who Daisuke would match up with in a playoff series with today's rosters. Since its a one game at a time deal I figure average game score would be a good metric to look at the matchups.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 53.2

NYY- Phil Hughes - Incomplete
Cleveland- Fausto - 56.2
Detroit- Bonderman - 48.5
LAA- Jered Weaver (?) - 50
Seattle- Carlos Silva - 48.6
Baltimore- Steve Trachsel - 44.3 (just kidding)

I see what youre saying, but for the record I was supremely confident with Dice K going into game 7. He's a big game pitcher.

Now, as for ranking pitchers as Ace-2-3-4-5 based on how we feel about them going into big games... yeah, cant say Im a fan of that.

I think that Daisuke is a solid number two pitcher. His last two starts haven't been great, but he's still managed to keep the team in the game, and that's all a number two pitcher really has to do, isn't it? He has the potential to develop further and get closer to being an Ace, and in some games you can definitely see that (like the multiple 0 ER or 1 ER games he threw last year), and other games he gets shelled, but that happens to most starters, even the Aces on some teams.

Using the nibbler descriptor, I'd guess Daisuke's a #2 guy in the regular season- he's the type that has good enough stuff to beat the KCs and Baltimores every time out but not enough command to ever really dominate a patient team like the Yankees.

Given that, it seems he should consistently put up decent regular season stats but when the competition is consistently better (the playoffs) he'll struggle. I think this played out exactly last October.

So not exactly the #2 postseason type- if that makes any sense. Hopefully Buchholz will turn into that guy by this fall- b/c personally, I'm not counting on Schilling for anything.

Impressions of Daisuke three starts in?

OK, who's leading the team in
1) Wins
2) Innings
3) Strikeouts


You can HAVE ERA+ and VORP - I'll take those three, thank you very much!

2008 AL Cy Young - you can all do me homage in October.

Its funny how all our recent acquisitions are guys who play much better than they look... Drew, Daisuke, Lugo...

They all contribute in ways that you dont really notice. Defense, walks, etc... Dice K walks too many guys and doesnt dominate... but at the end of the day you look up and we're winning and he's only allowed two runs and struck out 8. Just like you dont notice Drew and Lugo just going about their business, playing solid defense, taking walks/bunting and not complaining or drawing attention to themselves. Yet all the fans remember is Lugo throwing a ball low to first and Drew striking out with two men on base. Still, we end up with best record in baseball...

I agree with this except for Lugo. I have noticed his D this year and it ain't a good thing. Now, if he keeps it up in the other areas, I'll see fit to look past this as long as he isn't booting a chance a week. Right now, he is booting more that a chance a week.

May 5: W @ Detroit
5IP 1 ER 2 H 8 BB 1 K

"Effectively wild" against the Tigers tonight. You can't argue with a 5-0 record, an ERA of 2.43, and only 24 hits surrendered. The massive number of walks will haunt him one of these days, however. A walk is no different than a single and it's only a matter of time before someone cranks one over the wall for multiple runs simply because he is erratic. 28 walks already when he gave up 80 last season.

I will say, however, that the 2008 Daisuke has me much less worried about his starts than the previous, inconsistent 2007 version. He's going to have an unorthodox fastball delivery and give up a ton of walks, but as long as he keeps them off the dish, I'll be a happy man.

Still can't buy into the idea that he's going to win the Cy Young, though. Not yet.

Whoever is selling anyone on the idea that a pitcher with a 33/27 BB/K ratio can win the Cy Young should be shot.

First pitcher since Doug Davis in 2006 to walk at least 8 and still get the win...

I'm with you on 99% of your post, but not this line. As frustrating as walks are, you don't often see a runner go from 1st to 3rd or score from 2nd on a walk.

Of course that's easy for me to say since I didn't get home until the 6th inning tonight.

he's tough to watch.
behind every hitter.
game takes forever.

I don't think he will win the Cy Young but if he goes undefeated then he would win it I think. Its possible, although not likely (for the Cy Young that is). You also never know what's going to happen for the rest of the season. Its still a very small sample size and if he got the ratios to improve while keeping the ERA low and the win total high then he could definitely win it this season. He's still off to a good start and the voters notoriously follow win totals.

I missed the game today and really, really thought when I looked at the box score it was a typo.

For me, the walks aren't a problem in that I expect them to bite Matsuzaka in the ass at some point - if he trades all of the hits that he gave up last year for walks, he'll allow fewer runs. The walks are a problem in that Matsuzaka's pitch count climbs rapidly, and therefore he leaves 3-4 IP for our bullpen every time he pitches, and that's going to burn out some arms when combined with the lack of control that we can expect from Lester and Wakefield on a regular basis. Particularly with Delcarmen struggling in the 7th inning role, Okajima is just as likely to be burned to a crisp by August as he was last season, and there's only so many times that you want to see Papelbon getting 4-out saves.

I wonder how much of Daisuke's walks can be attributed to his past experiences. By that I mean that it seems the strike zone in Japan is at least a lot taller (not sure about the width of the zone vs the US zone). Dice throws a lot of high pitches that batters take because they aren't called strikes here. I wonder if he learned to pitch high and low in Japan because they were effective pitches batters couldn't catch up with, but also called strikes and if he's having difficulty accounting for the different US zone.

One thing about his approach that bothers me is that he tries to paint the black too early in the game - maybe it's wildness, maybe it's him pitching too carefully. I really think that pitchers here (unless they are a guy with a great reputation) need to establish the strike zone prior to extending it left, right, up or down. The ump isn't going to give him those calls until he proves he can throw unquestionable strikes on purpose. Now with hitters having experience with him, he doesn't seem to be getting as many swings and misses and the balls that take a dive to the dirt and resulted in a lot of swings and misses last year. That too probably drives up his walks.

I can't get over my frustration at why he isn't more aggressive with pitching. Is he really just that wild or is he afraid of giving up a sweet pitch down the middle? I honestly cannot tell at this point if he misses spots because he's incapable of control or if he is trying to be too perfect with his pitches. At this level, you need to have some level of aggression and fearlessness - some great pitchers give up a lot of HRs, but if you aren't walking guys, it's not that bad to deal with. All in all, I have a really hard time watching the Sox when Dice or Lester are on the hill - I cannot get into the flow of the game and they are absolutely brutallizing our pen by these high pitch counts. If Dice ran out of steam last year, I have no idea about this year since he can't get out of the 6th without crossing the 100 pitch line!

I think last night's ump (Cedarstrom) has a consistent and solid strike zone, but it is a tight one. He allows more walks than the average ump for the last 3 years & counting. Guys like that seem to spell trouble for Dice-K.

Generally, when a pitcher struggles with control, he gets desperate and grooves one or two to stop walking people, and gets disastrous results. Dice-K hasn't done this, at least so far, which begs the question, why can't he throw those good out pitches early in the count. I did see some Tito quotes over on SOSH to the effect that Dice was coughing and wheezing before the game and that he thanked him for the effort.

He absolutely does not give in. Even in the 3rd inning, when he threw a respectable 63% strikes (17 of 27 pitches), he managed to walk two batters. The guy is just a mystery. Only managed to get 4 swinging strikes all day...but 21 foul balls. Does he need to pitch more to contact? Less to contact?

Is there anything at all to take away from looking at any of his numbers? I have no idea. I don't know how he does it. The team is 7-0 in his starts, though.

When Paps was pitching, he called a couple of pitches balls that would have been called strikes by about any other ump. Generally, the premier pitchers get the close ones in their favor. I like the sound of that though: Paps a premier pitcher. Last night the announcers were gushing over Paps, so one said, for one big game, who do you wan't closing, Rivera or Paps. It was either 1 and 1, or 2 - 1, Paps. Couldn't distinguish two of the voices.

It really frustrates me, as well.
It's obvious he has the ability to get guys out, because he doesn't allow the runs, and usually when he walks a couple of guys he buckles down and gets the next two out.
I really just feel like he is afraid of challenging guys here, for whatever reason. Even though he should realize by now that most of the time when they get contact, they are hitting the balls for outs.
I hope somebody talks to him about being more confident, or if they have already (which is likely), tell him again. He is capable of being a much better pitcher, and that is very evident.

I think his utter lack of command of the fastball was the most concerning to me. At several points in the fourth and fifth, he threw what seemed like 10-15 breaking/offspeed pitches in a row. If he can't throw strikes with his fastball to set up the rest of his pitches, he's going to have trouble.

His body language last night was telling as well - he was frustrated and didn't seem like he wanted to be out there (for health reasons or otherwise). The Sox got very lucky with a couple of missiles (Ordonez' shot to left center and the rookie OF line drive to right come to mind). Those balls find green most of the time, and are possibly HR in some parks - then everyone's in here screaming for Tito's head for leaving him in there for 5.

That start should have been 5-7 ER, and the only reason it wasn't was luck. Daisuke needs to pick it up.

The Tampa series turned on Dice-K's slip on the wet mound in Game 2 when a bunt was layed down. Up to that point Dice looked at the top of his game and in the zone. The tumble apparently affected his pysche just like an error behind him or a bad break in past starts. He seems much too sensitive to the things he can't control. He needs more mental toughness. The effort and will to win are certainly there.