I thought this would be a good time to bring up our catching situation given that nice walkoff hit tonight. Tek is pretty much the same player as the last few years, but is prone to longer and more frequent slumps, as well as lower contact rates. Id love to see us give him an extension all the same. I dont think he'd leave, but who knows what could happen if we let it get to the stage where a team can throw money at him. Boras is his agent, after all.

I know there had been talk about an extension during the spring - or at least Boras started a dialogue. I also know the FO makes it a habit to let older players play out their contracts in order to minimize risk. My concern is the Free Agent class of catchers(per mlbtraderumors.com):


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

Yuck.

I know the smart move is to wait, but Id feel much more comfortable if he was extended when I look at the alternatives. We could really get backed into a corner having to overpay for mediocre solution like we did when Damon left. Id like to see that Laird for Coco rumor build steam, too. Either as a potential replacement or as a complement to Tek.

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In terms of potential in house solutions there are essentially three on the radar:

Kevin Cash - Sucks. Barely adequate as a backup. No way this guy gets the full time job. I doubt theyd even let him start for an extended time if Tek went down. Can't hit at all but is a good catch and throw guy.

George Kottaras - Has reemerged with a hot second half last year and a decent start to 08. Billed as an "offensive catcher"(READ: questionable defense - though not a poor defender by any means). Hasnt shown much offense since reaching the high minors. Sort of a low ceiling and perhaps profiles better as a future backup.

Mark Wagner - Better defensively than Kot. Offense looking pretty good, too, but ARL is unimpressive. May not be ready for 09. Is a 24 year old playing his first season at AA. Possible catcher of the future, but we'd likely still need a bridge to him. Not a particularly high ceiling guy either.

The thought of Varitek getting a Posada like deal scares me. I don't see another team throwing money at him. The Last time his contract was up the Sox overpaid him when there were no other serious bidders. Now he's 4 years older. I think Theo should wait and see how the rest of the season goes and try to resign him to a more reasonable deal. Something along the lines of
2/$14 or maybe 3/$19 at the most.

I agree that's probably what they do, but its a scary route to take, and were we to let it get that far we may very well have to overpay to keep him.

If youre a team in need of a catcher is there anyone on that list youd want other than Tek? Barajas, Olivo, Pudge and maybe Zaun could be serviceable options, especially if you platoon them. I would HATE to see any of those guys on the Sox though. If you are a team looking for a catcher in free agency this year your number one target has to be Tek... that terrifies me. He's very sellable to another team and to fans, as well.

I could see something like 2/$16 plus vesting options based on playing time. Is that an overpay? Sure. There's pretty much no way to keep a 37 year old free agent without paying him for past production, though. It really is going to be very hard for them to agree on a price...

EDIT: On another note, how badly did we actually overpay Tek on his last deal? It really doesnt look that bad in retrospect. He lost some time to injury like we expected. Overall pretty good production despite that.

I'm not so sure about that. I think we value him more because of what he's done here over the years. Other teams will see an aging catcher with declining skills. Maybe a contender (Phillies?) would make a run at him, but I don't think the demand will be that high.

I think you guys are underestimating how much money he'll get. I can see the RS maybe getting away with giving him two years instead of three. But I can't imagine he accepts only two years and a $2 million/year to $3 million/year pay cut. Boras would insist (probably fairly, quite frankly) that if a guy who's a big piece of two (maybe three by then ) world championship teams and who still has a lot to contribute is going to take a two-year deal, the RS have to do better on the money per year.

I think the RS would be glad to get him on a two-year deal, given the crap alternatives, and would be willing to send a few extra million per year (peanuts to them) his way.

I think the team pretty much has to let Varitek play out the season before offering him a deal, if only because the chances of a debilitating injury occuring rise with each passing day for someone who plays his position at his age. An overpay is going to end up being required whether the contract is an extension or a new deal, and I'll take a slightly higher overpay signed later (assuming no major injury) over a slightly lower overpay signed when Varitek could still cripple himself before the end of the season.

After Bavasi just idiotically signed Kenji Johjima to a 3 year extension, allow me to be the first to dream big and suggest Jeff Clement

I would love to offer a package for Clement (would a Bowden/Lowrie deal get it done?). If the Sox can't have him, I'm more than content with giving Kots a try. Do the Sox really want to give out a 2-3 year deal to a catcher who is going to be 37 and so far this year has a sub-.300 OBP?

It's everything else Varitek does, for example, apparently doing the most thorough job of any catcher in watching video on hitters and coming up with game plans for all of them and going over that with the pitchers, etc., for which he is considered so valuable. Also, there must be other leadership abilities that caused the team to appoint him captain, only the third since 1923. We are too statistics driven sometimes. I hope they bring him back, without breaking the bank (Boras).

We've got a generation gap here, Frank. Most younger fans seem to want Varitek gone. They cite the stats but ignore all the things great catchers do before the game, during the game, in between starts for each pitcher. Ironically, Posada's injury could hurt Jason a little, same as his mega-contract helped him in the off-season.

As far as Jeff Clement goes, even though Bill Bavasi isn't likely to be considered a good GM by many knowledgeable fans, isn't it possible that Johjima's long-term deal might be somehow related to how the Mariners feel about Clement as a defensive catcher? Might they know something that we don't?

Sign him for a couple years. The alternatives suck, as Alskor pointed out. I guess you could trade for Clement, but we all know that no one wants to give up anyone under 24 since they will all be all-stars.

That is correct. The M's view him more as a 1b/dh type of ball player.

Here's what I know..

Using the fancy linear weights spreadsheets I just downloaded, offensively the average AL catcher was 10.7 runs below average and the average NL catcher was 14.3 runs below average. On the other hand the average AL first baseman was 5.3 runs above average (DH was 8.1 above average) and the average NL first baseman was 12.9 runs above average. So for them to break even on that switch, there would need to be something like 15 runs of defense to make up. Baseball prospectus's defensive statistics have him at -2, 0, and -5 over the last three years, which means that they expect him to be about 10 runs above replacement at first base. For comparison, Youk won the gold glove last year at +5, and of all the firstbasemen I looked at, only John Olerud had ever reached +10 more than once. Acquiring talent at first base ain't hard, but as we know, a good catcher is hard to come by.



Is Varitek's ability to call a game and handle pitchers a great asset? Of course, I don't think anyone here will deny that. However, the C on his chest doesn't change the fact that he's quickly headed towards replacement level offensively, and in two years who knows what his numbers will look like. For fun, here is Tek's PECOTA attrition/drop rate chart (This is free content so I'm assuming I can post it).



In other words, in two years they have the chance of him being out of baseball at almost 50%, and for next year the chance of his plate appearances declining by 50% at over 50%. This obviously doesn't mean much, although he's underperforming his 2008 predictions right now.

You lost Bill Bavasi at "fancy." Its a very poor idea to move Clement off C prematurely, even though he appears to have a bat that will carry at 1B.

As for the rest, I wasnt claiming Tek is a great option... but look at the drop rates for the other available catchers... Ugh...

I hate the idea of giving a C in his mid-30's multiple years at $8/9/10M per.

but I also don't have a better alternative.
hope Theo does.

I think its pretty likely that the Sox desire would be to sign Tek to a 1 year deal and go year to year with him, and I would assume they would be willing to pay a premium to do this. Ex. $10-12M for 2009.

There are any number of ways the team and player could go in this situation. They could have separate team and player options. Ex. team option for $10M or player option for $5M.

The Sox could offer a 3 year $18M ($6M AAV) with incentives for games played.

I think realistically it comes down to whether Varitek wants to maximize his payday and sign a big multiyear deal to start somewhere else or is willing to take a little bit of a discount to stay in Boston and phase into a more part time role over the next few years.

The Sox could find a happy medium by signing him to a multiyear deal with a lower salary but at the same time sign him to a personal service contract (Rockets-Roger Clemens ex.) which could guarantee Varitek some salary to move into a coaching for Front Office capacity after he retires.

We could probably pry Clement loose from the Mariners for some deal that involves Lester. The Mariners always seem to go for players from the Northwest.

Ok, so at this point Marytek is hitting slightly higher than his weight. The Rangers have a plethora of available catching talent and need arms. The Sox have arms that they could move. What would you be willing to give up for a Ramirez, Salty, Laird, or Teagarden? I have to think that since each team is dealing from a position of strength, it'll be tough to make it lopsided. The Sox still can say, "screw it, we'll stick with Varitek" or "We have loads of money so we aren't afraid to use it to acquire a catcher", therefore I say that they hold the upperhand in such a deal.

Captain Jason Varitek is in his last season of a 4 year, $40M contract. It is unlikely that he will leave via free agency, but even still, there is that chance. If he stays for a few more years, we still do not have a clear cut candidate at the catching position to replace him if/when he leaves or if he gets hurt.

We seem to have a good bit of organizational depth at pitching; perhaps we could trade pitching for a catching prospect. Perhaps we trade Coco for some catching help.

Personally, I would like to see the Sox target Josh Donaldson of the Cubs organization or Lou Marson from the Phillies. Angel Salome of the Brewers is another option to look at.

I'm not entirely sure if we match up well as far as needs/surpluses go, but those are just some names I, personally, like and the teams are in the hunt for the playoffs. An ideal situation is that one of these teams needs a starter and Bartolo Colon fits their bill. Pipe dream. But other moveable parts include Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie, Julio Lugo (Please, please, please someone take him) and maybe some prospects like Michael Bowden, Josh Reddick, and Dan Bard.

I'd be very surprised if Lugo is "movable."

if you were another team, would you want him?

Sure, Lugo has some value as long as you're not on the hook for his ridiculous contract, you have no shortstop, and you don't have to give up anything in return. But I don't think he brings back a catcher of the future.

If Varitek is so good at calling a game/handling pitchers, why does our bullpen suck so badly this year? Surely his bat is almost nonexistent recently. How much is an over the hill catcher worth these days? Aren't the M's starting Clement instead of their overpaid Japanese catcher? I think Texas is the likely trade partner - they have all those catchers to offer.

The 'calling a great game' myth has been batted around this board for years. Some years the Sox are pitching well and everyone throws all the credit at Varitek and his superhuman game-calling skills. When they're pitching badly no one points a finger at him, but rather the pitching staff, Francona, the pitching coach, and Theo. Nevermind the fact that Varitek has, in the past, had one of the worst CERAs in the league from time to time. Some pitchers were much better in recent years when Mirabelli or whatever backup was in there (Pedro notably had better outings in later in his Sox career with Beerabelli back behind the plate).

Anyway, the debate always comes down to conjecture vs. stats that can't fully explain what is going on. I'm sure Varitek preps well and knows the hitters, the pitchers sometimes don't have the best stuff, but I firmly believe that his 'game calling' ability that has been overstated over the years is enough to keep his awful bat around. Well, not for the money he's making anyway.

Oh yeah, he sucks at throwing runners out too.