I know it's early, but it seems like every time Okajima comes in with runners on base he immediately lets them score, then gets quick outs to get out of the inning.

I looked it up & he has allowed 8 out of 11 inherited baserunners to score this year. His tiny ERA is somewhat misleading.

Last year he was acutually very good at leaving men on base - only allowing 14% to score.

I know these can be flukey stats, and it's a small sample size, but is something different going on this year?

PS - in no way am I saying Okajima isn't a good pitcher. I'm glad he plays for Boston.

I'm wondering if Delcarmen's frequent, rapid meltdowns have led to Okajima being brought in to stop the bleeding before he is completely warmed up. I seem to recall that last season, whenever Okajima had to be brought in sooner than expected, he would struggle for a batter or two before getting into a groove. The way that he seems to almost immediately flip on his "I don't suck" switch after the first batter in many of his outings so far this season makes me think that he may just be coming in one batter too early, but with the way Delcarmen has been pitching in the 7th inning (or Hansen last night, but it's the same idea), the thought is that even a partially-warm Okajima is more likely to get the key out than a crappy Delcarmen or a wild Hansen. Okajima actually made a pretty decent pitch to Thames last night, Thames just muscled it out to LF (where Ellsbury would have caught it if he had been playing LF last night, the fact that Manny was so close to the ball tells me that 95% of LF in baseball make the catch, considering Manny's range), and sometimes the hitter is just going to win the battle.

At this point I'm saying that it is a fluke - he's come in after some messes that MDC left that were very, very tough situations to get out of. I'll be interested in seeing what happens going forward, but I think as the pen settles down around him and Papelbon his numbers in this regard will get back to normal. Does bring a bit of cause for alarm, but it seems like early on he's been thrown in a lot of high leverage situations.

I looked into his advanced statistics on Baseball Prospectus. He has -2.9 Inherited Runs Prevented, which means he's cost us 3 runs compared to what the average guy would do in the situations he's come in with. It looks like most guys fall in the -1 to 1 range, so he's significantly worse than average. However, his "Fair Runs Allowed," which is essentially his ERA but taking into account runners he inherits and runnerss he bequeaths, is still 2.96. That is to say, despite the awful performance with inherited runs, he's still been a damn fine pitcher. And if he got that problem in check, he'd be among the best (again).

In conclusion, nothing to worry about here. His overall performance is still very good with the potential to be excellent.

JMDurron's point vis a vis Manny is dead-on. I love Manny as much as anybody, but that ball should have been caught. Ellsbury certainly would have gotten it. Also, a good relay throw by Lugo may have gotten the runner from second at the plate. Not an impressive play at either end defensively, and certainly not all on Okijima.

This may have been the case in a few instances this year, but I definitely don't think it should have been the case yesterday. Both he and Timlin were warming up for quite awhile while Francona kept giving Hansen a bit more rope to work with.

Ah. The FSN Detroit feed didn't really establish when Okajima and Timlin started warming up. I stupidly forgot that ESPN had the game as well (no HD, and no Orel Hershiser's non-moronic color commentary...I'm kicking myself today), so I just watched the EI feed. Still, I'm not sure that the hit to Thames wasn't just a combination of a good piece of hitting and an unfortunate location/fielder combination, as opposed to a sign of a problem with Okajima. It's not like the pitch was one of the meatballs that Okajima has thrown early on in some of his other recent outings.

Thats ok JM, I DVR'd the game on ESPNHD only to find out that once again, somehow in Cablevision's world [NJ] we are in the Boston market and therefore are not afforded the privelage of watching the game in HD ... however, if I were to have tuned to regular ESPN, they carried the game there ... neat. This has gone on for 3 years now, and I have no clue as to why, nor can anyone at Cablevision or elsewhere ever tell me ....

Anyhow, sorry for the side rant ... I think that the inherited runners scoring will even out over the course of the year ... I think it would be silly to expect Oki to be as dominant as he was last year, but to me it looks like he has been pitching well for the most part [obviously I missed anything yesterday .... ]

More quality work today. Against a hated man, no less.

Now, I partly blame Brad Mills. Lopez gets two quick outs, gives up one baserunner, and gets the quick hook. I wasn't entirely on board with that decision in the first place. But if you're doing it, then isn't that the time to go to Okajima? Waiting until the brink of disaster just doesn't make sense, especially given Oki's issues with inherited runners so far.

That said, Brad Mills isn't the one who threw Gay Payton a meatball. WTF? Is it a fear of walking in a run (this is the second grand slam he's given up, IIRC)? Is he just too predictable for situations where hitters are being aggressive at the plate? His is own ERA is still minuscule. He is still striking guys out at a very good rate. I don't get it. There's no reason why he should be so bad in these situations. But at this point, there's just no reason he should even get the call in these situations.

Yes, especially with a day off tomorrow.

I dont buy the whole worse with inherited runners thing. As far as Im concerned there are three reasons not to bring in a reliever with runners on base:

1) We need a double play and the pitcher is predominantly a flyball out guy.

2) The pitcher pitches worse from the stretch (not much of a factor these days as most pitch from the stretch all the time)

3) The pitcher is poor at holding baserunners.


Okaji isnt really a concern with any of these. The problem with him isnt that he's doing poorly when he comes in with inherited baserunners... the problem is he's doing poorly. He's only appeared 15 times this year. Its just bad luck for him and for us that he didnt execute a few times and in a number of those times there happened to be runners on base.

The major problem is he isnt executing that well right now... I have full confidence he'll turn it around. His stuff is still pretty nasty. Saying he's not pitching well... with inherited baserunners is bogus. Its like complaining about how Lugo hits... with runners in scoring position.

Coming into today, he had a 0.50 ERA. He had struck out nearly as many batters (15) as he had allowed to reach base via hit or walk (16, including one IBB). In 18 IP, that translates to 7.5 K/9 and a 0.89 WHIP. How is that "doing poorly"?

On the flip side, including today he has 4 blown saves. All 4 have come in games in which he entered the game with runners on base. 3 of the 4 have been the direct result of allowing inherited runners to score.

Maybe it is a fluke that virtually the only times he has done poorly is when inheriting runners. But, while there's not enough there to offer as proof that his struggles are the result of inherited runners, I don't think you can dismiss it outright just because he doesn't meet your three criteria.

That kind of just illustrates the fluky nature of when he's allowed runs - as well as the problems with ERA.

I overstated it - he hasnt been terrible or anything. He's actually been pretty good, but my point was more that his traditional pitching stats are inflated.

I dont think he's doing anything different with runners on...

Well, right, the ERA by itself illustrates the problems with ERA...but the WHIP and K rate suggest that the ERA isn't that much of a fluke.

So either the inherited runners thing is a fluke, or he's doing something differently in those situations.

You don't think he is doing anything differently. I'm not convinced that that's the case. Not sure that he is, not sure that he's not. That's all.

It certainly possible, but if he is I cant figure out what.

This is a good discussion if it keeps occurring, but it's still too early to make a definitive statement or to try to analyze.

Don't hitters usually succeed at a greater rate when the bases are loaded? Maybe it's not Okie's fault so much as it is the fact that batting averages go up with men on base.