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Full Version: Jonathan Papelbon, May '08 edition
Royal Rooters > WE'RE TALKIN' BASEBALL > RED SOX - ON THE FIELD
rominer
Jonathan Papelbon has now gone 3 consecutive outings without recording a strikeout – matching the longest such streak of his career.

To be fair, the previous streak of 3 outings with no Ks came at the end of last year, and included a 1-pitch, 1-out outing against Oakland (in relief of Eric Gagne) in a game that was finished off by Bryan Corey after the Sox scored 3 in the bottom of the 8th.

So really, this is it. Longest stretch without a K in his career. Over his last 5 outings, dating back to April 30 (second of back to back appearances for him), Paps has just 1 K in 5 innings.

Considering that nobody is actually hitting him (come on, those two "hits" last night don't count, do they?), and we're talking about a whopping 3 innings here, I'm 99.3% sure that it means absolutely nothing. But he has had two sets of back to back outings after just one all season previously (April 19-20, totaling 17 pitches – or one fewer than he threw last night). He has thrown a handful of sliders lately, which I don't think we had seen yet this year.

Is he being overworked? Anyone noticing anything on the gun? Or is this just a 3 inning fluke that will all seem like a distant memory when he strikes out the side in Minnesota on Friday?
alskor
Tigers are a contact team. Not very patient.

He was throwing as hard if not harder than usual last night. He did seem a bit wild, but the ball was popping.
Malzone64
QUOTE(alskor @ May 8 2008, 10:26 AM) *
Tigers are a contact team. Not very patient.

He was throwing as hard if not harder than usual last night. He did seem a bit wild, but the ball was popping.

Didn't he also get three quick outs on split finger fastballs in the game he pitched previous to last night?

Edit: I don't think he would have gone on the Gatorade cooler destruction spree if there was anything wrong with him, would he? (Assuming the thread starter might be implying something might be wrong (shudder) with the Baton Rouge flamer).
JMDurron
I think last night was just one of his few poor control outings so far this season. Down 2-0 to a good team of contact hitters, even Papelbon isn't likely to blow one by them right down the middle. Up 0-1 or 1-2 in the count, Papelbon can get some extra swings and misses on pitches that aren't right down the pipe. Even if he was throwing 99 mph, a 2-0 "get a strike" fastball isn't going to be enough to blow by too many good MLB hitters.
rominer
QUOTE(Malzone64 @ May 8 2008, 10:36 AM) *
(Assuming the thread starter might be implying something might be wrong (shudder) with the Baton Rouge flamer).


0.7% implying that.

As I said, I'm 99.3% sure it's all fine. The 0 K in the last 3, and 1 K in the last 5 just stand out, because he was striking out everyone before that. So if there is some actual trend here – of overuse, of Paps pitching differently for whatever reason (pitch conservation? sore arm? working on the slider now so it's deadly later?) – better to look for it now.

That, and Ortiz is out of his slump and there's really nothing else to say about Julio Lugo's miserable start in the field. So why not?

I suspect he wants blood after last night, though. So he'll K the side in Minnesota on Friday, and this thread can go to pasture.
alskor
QUOTE(Malzone64 @ May 8 2008, 01:36 PM) *
Didn't he also get three quick outs on split finger fastballs in the game he pitched previous to last night?

Edit: I don't think he would have gone on the Gatorade cooler destruction spree if there was anything wrong with him, would he? (Assuming the thread starter might be implying something might be wrong (shudder) with the Baton Rouge flamer).

Yeah, I liked the cooler smashing, too. Had to be a good sign.

Sort of like he was saying "I cant believe those f****** got lucky and got me tonight. [insert derogatory remark about Lugo here], I didnt give them s*** to hit!"
BamaBoSox
May 17th v. Brewers
1IP 1ER 1H 0BB 0K

Paps picks up his twelfth save but doesn't get through it clean. In fact, he hasn't had a 1-2-3 inning in four appearances.
rominer
QUOTE(BamaBoSox @ May 17 2008, 04:19 PM) *
Paps picks up his twelfth save but doesn't get through it clean. In fact, he hasn't had a 1-2-3 inning in four appearances.


At least this one you kind of give a mulligan. Big lead (as save situations go, anyway), doubleheader, no Okajima for either game...you just want to throw strikes that they'll get themselves out with. In terms of overall importance, I'll put the 7 total pitches ahead of the 1 HR without a doubt.

That is 3 out of 4 appearances now, though, of giving up at least one run. And 3 out of 4 appearances without a K. If not for the circumstances today, I might be more concerned.
Yazfest
It's also not like he's been hit hard. In a few of those games where he did give up runs they were accompanied by an error or they were a lot of bloop hits, broken bat singles.

I'm not too worried, although a small slight ounce of doubt has creeped into my head when I see him take the mound. I always assume that the game is over. Now I'm still confident it is but that it may be a bit more dramatic than i'm used to.
john dopson
ridiculous.
who else would you rather have as your closer?

29 other teams would like to have these problems.
rominer
QUOTE(john dopson @ May 18 2008, 12:10 PM) *
ridiculous.
who else would you rather have as your closer?

29 other teams would like to have these problems.


Did I not state clearly enough at the very beginning of this thread that we don't really have anything to complain about?

Did I not make it clear enough in the thread title "premature panic"?

Of course 29 other teams would like to have these problems. But after striking out EVERYBODY at the beginning of the year, he has been in a stretch with very few Ks. There could be 1,000 reasons for that, including luck, including missed location, including him trying to be more efficient with his pitches so he can be available more frequently. I don't know. I'm not at all saying that there's anything wrong. But is there anything wrong with discussing the possible reasons for a change in his performance? 4 Ks in his last 9 appearances certainly qualifies as change in his performance - whatever the reasons.
Sox Sweep Again
QUOTE(john dopson @ May 18 2008, 01:10 PM) *
ridiculous.
who else would you rather have as your closer?

29 other teams would like to have these problems.


Rominer's right, and I don't like your "r" and "w" sentence starters. Added attention to capitalization always increases even a base credibility.
Malzone64
QUOTE(rominer @ May 18 2008, 01:58 PM) *
Did I not state clearly enough at the very beginning of this thread that we don't really have anything to complain about?

Did I not make it clear enough in the thread title "premature panic"?

"Premature panic" sounds something akin to "partially pregnant", at least in Boston-town. laugh.gif
JMDurron
I think Remy may have touched upon part of the issue in yesterday's game. Papelbon now has such a reputation as a dominant strikeout pitcher that more and more hitters are going to hack at the first pitch. Since that first pitch is likely to be a 96 mph fastball for a strike, there is going to be some hard contact allowed by Papelbon, until he adjusts and throws the occasional first pitch splitter to throw the hitters off balance again, leading to fewer first pitch swings.
john dopson
QUOTE(rominer @ May 8 2008, 11:25 AM) *
I'm 99.3% sure that it means absolutely nothing.


that covers it.
BamaBoSox
May 22 v. Royals
1IP 0ER 2H 0BB 0K

" what JMDurron said. It's much easier for hitters to attack him knowing that he's coming right at them with a first pitch heater. I wasn't able to see today's game, but agree that something off-speed could have an eager batter out at the mound by the time it hits Tek's mitt. Batters have adjusted to him and he'll now have to do the same.

I'm not at all worried about him as he has proven what he's capable of in the past. Whatever minor issues he may be facing now will ironed out by October. There's no sense in worrying about a guy who will have 15+ pre-June saves.
acr
QUOTE(BamaBoSox @ May 22 2008, 06:05 PM) *
May 22 v. Royals
1IP 0ER 2H 0BB 0K

" what JMDurron said. It's much easier for hitters to attack him knowing that he's coming right at them with a first pitch heater. I wasn't able to see today's game, but agree that something off-speed could have an eager batter out at the mound by the time it hits Tek's mitt. Batters have adjusted to him and he'll now have to do the same.

I'm not at all worried about him as he has proven what he's capable of in the past. Whatever minor issues he may be facing now will ironed out by October. There's no sense in worrying about a guy who will have 15+ pre-June saves.


I thought it was noteworthy in the Tuesday game when he used all those sliders. It's as if he sees that they're starting to jump the gun and hack at the fastball, so he's trying to weave in the breaking ball more.
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