Okay, so going in to today's game, Youk was the only guy in the AL with an OPS over 1000. He only went 1 for 4 today, but he spanked an authoritative opposite field ground rule double. He has started strong and then slumped down the stretch before, but this is kind of ridiculous. There isn't a whole lot in his track record to indicate that he can maintain this kind of power output, so it's easy to dismiss as a fluke. However, he is obviously a big enough guy to be a serious power hitter. He has always put together very good at bats and shown an intelligent approach to hitting. His bat looks fast and he looks like a guy who could hit for 300/400/550 numbers when you watch him hit. Power is supposed to be the last tool to develop in a big leaguer, and he really hasn't been a full-time player in MLB for all that long.

Has he put something together in his hitting that will allow him to keep up this sort of MVP caliber production over the course of a full season? I'm not at all sure, but it is certainly possible, and it's May 20th now, so I think the possibility should at least be entertained.

Perhaps examining the batted ball data would reveal how fluky this seems. I may look into that when I have a minute. Either way, I thought this deserved a thread.

His post All Star Break OPS is about .150 points lower than his pre ASB numbers since 2005. May has been, historically, the best month of his career. I won't get excited about his numbers until mid August at the earliest, but it's nice to have him producing right now, especially since during the time we had Ortiz struggling, Lowell out, etc.

2006 - 1st half OPS 874, 2nd half OPS 728
2007 - 1st half OPS 920, 2nd half OPS 747
2008 - OPS of 997 (small sample size)

Looks like Youk's output so far this season is a natural progression from the 1st half numbers in his other two full-time seasons. It seems possible that he could end up in the .880-.890 range at the end of the season if he has a similar falloff in the 2nd half this season, which is nothing to sneeze at. I don't think there's any reason to expect him to keep up this pace, though. The only thing that stands out to me is that Youk, who was HBP 9 times in 2006 and 15 times last season, seems to be getting out of the way of inside pitches much better than he did during previous seasons, resulting in only 1 HBP so far this year. I always wondered if the abuse his hands and arms seemed to take (a disproportionate number of those HBP seemed to come on his hands and arms) as the season went along in 2006-2007 was a factor in his 2nd half offensive output. If that is the case, then maybe Youk has changed something subtle in his stance or reaction to inside pitches that might keep his hands and arms from being as abused as they have been in previous seasons, thereby making his usual 2nd half offensive dip less pronounced than it has been in previous seasons. That could put him in the .900 OPS range by October, theoretically.

The good news is Casey is a very competent backup who can keep Youk more fresh for the 2nd half. It also seems the Sox have made the effort to transform him into more of a middle of the order hitter, lose a little OBP and add a little SLG. I think a 900 OPS is possible, and combine that with his stellar defense; that's quite a player.

As an aside, with Teixeira out of the AL, it seems it would be a 2 horse race for the AL 1B job in the ASG between Youk and Morneau. He has to make it as at least a reserve this year.

When a Red Sox player is doing exceptionally well, he's going to start in the ASG unless he’s competing against a house hold name or a Yankee of the same caliber. I don't think it would matter if Morneau had 15 HR by now.

Edit: I'm personally curious to see how close it's going to be between Ellsbury and Hamilton (who is this years MVP if the season ended today).

he's become a WAY better player than I ever thought he'd be.

if any young guy should get a pre-arbitration long-term deal, it's him.

This is his age 29 season, so it's important to keep in mind that he didn't get a chance to become a full time player until his age 27 season, which is pretty darn unusual for a player this good. We might be watching his peak right now, not that I'm complaining. Anybody whose peak involves some approximation of Youks' hitting, fielding, and defensive versatility is a very nice player to have. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox lock him up to a reasonable 4 year deal that carries him through age 33 or 34. He seems very committed to his conditioning, despite the fact that he's built like a beer barrel.

A lot of the time when a player is off to a very hot start with a high batting average, looking at their batted ball numbers can be enlightening. Here are Youk's so far, courtesy of THT.

THT Batting
Year Tm Lg RC GPA P/PA LD% BA/BIP GB% IF/F HR/F BA/RISP Clutch
2004 BOS AL 36 .263 4.6 20.6% .296 37.0% N/A 10.5% .339 2.5
2005 BOS AL 13 .276 4.7 28.3% .356 31.7% 4.2% 4.4% .261 -1.0
2006 BOS AL 102 .272 4.4 24.5% .327 30.6% 6.8% 6.4% .325 7.4
2007 BOS AL 100 .278 4.3 20.8% .330 34.4% 2.6% 8.8% .329 7.7
2008 BOS AL 37 .318 3.6 20.5% .336 33.6% 4.5% 14.1% .357 1.8

Youk wasn't a full time player until 2006, so the small sample size warning certainly applies to the 04 and 05 numbers. What's remarkable is that Youk's batted ball numbers so far this year do not scream fluke. His line drive and ground ball percentages, along with his BABIP, are right at his career norms. A .336 BABIP feels high until you see that he's had a BABIP in that general neighborhood since 2005. His hr/f numbers are way up this year and he is seeing way fewer pitches per plate appearance.

So what's going on there? HR/F and P/PA deviations like that definitely represent a difference in skill and approach at the plate. He's seeing WAY fewer pitches this year, and his HR/F numbers really do seem to support the idea that his bat is a bit quicker and that he's hitting the ball harder. It could be that he's adjusted his approach a bit to reflect his spot in the batting order. He's basically spent all his time in RBI slots in the lineup rather than hitting in the 2 hole as he frequently has in the past, so his job is less to work the count and get on base and more to find a pitch to crush and crush it. I will be very curious to see how this plays out over the course of the year.

I think if we're talking about just one break the mold, bend the rules, lock him up early guy, it's Papelbon - 1, because he's the dominant guy at his position, and 2, because he's going to get a crapload of money in arbitration anyway. Locking him up fixes your cost. Locking up Youkilis early does...well, I'm not even sure. Makes him feel wanted, which is good.

But you definitely can't find anything to complain about with a guy who is GG at one position, pretty solid at another, will hit anywhere in the lineup, will play the OF in a pinch, and goes all out on every play. It's all about the 2nd half of the season with him. If he can get over his annual summer swoon – whether it's through more rest with Casey here, or whatever - then this offense will roll.

you're right, Papelbon would be #1.
maybe even Pedroia next.

but Youk, remember, gives them great flexibility by playing a solid 1B and 3B.
and he can seemingly hit anywhere in the order, without complaint.

I think this is the answer. He's being more aggressive and it is paying off. I'm confident that if the league catches on he will be able to adjust back.

edit: I can spell, but typing is still an issue

There's also the fact that his strikeout rate has declined 6% (19.9 to 14.0) with, as has been mentioned, LD/FB/GB rates staying consisent and his BABIP going up 7 points as of today. Then consider things like the increase in home runs (i.e. balls that go out of play) and you see where the increase in his performance has come

The Hardball Times also has a stat, Predicted OPS, that calculates what a player's OPS might be given his batted ball, strikeout, and walk statistics, and Youk's PrOPS is 96 points lower than his actual OPS.

That's exactly what I was looking for. Where is PrOPS listed on THT? I don't see it on Youk's player page, but I've been known to be blind as a bat when it comes to these things. I figured he had to be a little over his head, but even if he settles in to an OPS in the .900 range from here on out, well, that's pretty awesome.

EDIT: I found it on THT, so you can ignore the above request. Also, Youkilis is awesome because his goatee looks like he stapled a hamster to his face.

It is really good to see Youkilis playing as well as he has.

One issue for debate this next off-season would be whether the team should move Youkilis back to 3B, trade Lowell and make a run at Teixeira.

Youkilis because of his age is probably one of the least likely guys to sign in Boston early, because he got the majors late, he is less likely to be able to get two big paydays and is probably looking at signing one big contract in his career. He is probably better served going year to year and then going to free agency. Ryan Howard is in a similar boat based on age/service time.

Yeah, but if the Sox offer him 4/30 over the offseason or something, doesn't he take that? It gets rid of the risk that he'll wash out of baseball by the time he's free agent eligible or get hurt or something. And, hey, it's $30 million. That leaves you set for life.

Yeah, I think I could live on that.

Youkilis should be considered a core member of the team and treated accordingly, i.e., kept happy.

I'm just going to bump this thread because Youks remains on pace for a breakout season with his power. He is starting the all-star game and he actually deserves it. The only AL 1b with a higher OPS right now is the Giambroid, and the difference between Giambi's and Youkilis' fielding is, ummm ... substantial.

So good for you, Mr. Deserving All-Star.

It sure is nice to realize a "pipedream".