By his standards, of course.

Last year, he had only 42 Ks. This year, he has 21 already and just 12 BB. His OBP is .336, only about 40 points higher than his BA. His mL numbers have his OBP about 80 points higher than his BA.

So, why is Dustin K'ing more this season and showing less patience? Is he being too aggressive, trying to do too much? He's not underperforming, but I worry that maybe the league found something of a weakness.

It is probably a combination of things. His hitting stats are obviously lower this year which could be the result of better scouting on him as you suggested or he may be a little overly aggressive, swinging and missing on pitches he hit last year. He swung and made contact on a number of pitches out of the zone last year which is probably causing him problems this year on those same pitches. His contact rate is slightly lower than last year but his walk percentage is nearly the same, its just the strikeouts that seem to have risen which would suggest the agressive nature of his pitch selection. One cause of the swing and miss on the "out of zone" pitches could have something to do with his shoulder that he hurt a couple times last month making diving plays which might be slowing his bat through the zone. Whatever the case may be, I assume his K/BB will even out over the season but this could just be one of those "outlier" years for him regarding his K/BB. I don't see it as too much of a problem though.

I found some good expanded stats here: http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=8278 which showed his outlier numbers.

I noticed that Pedroia has 6 Ks when the Sox lose vs. 15 Ks when the Sox win.
So if the Sox lose more games, he should be just fine.

Other patterns:
17 Ks vs. right handed pitchers vs. 4 Ks vs lefties.
14 Ks @ Fenway vs. 7 Ks on the road
14 Ks in his first @ bat of the game vs. 7 Ks in all his other at bats
Finally, he had 13 Ks in April...wonder if that is any way is related to Papi's April slump?


edit: Loose vs lose....oh well

Really?

Honestly, it's probably nothing and he'll end up with slightly higher K numbers for the year.

It seems like his strikeouts have come in bunches grouped by location...that is, early in the year it seemed like all his Ks were on eye-level pitches. Lately, the one that gets him seems to be lower half of the zone and a few inches off the plate.

Last night he whiffed on a slider away that didn't even do anything but spin (and was still 6 inches off the plate). He would really have looked foolish if it had actually been a good slider.

"Seems," though, is the key word here. That's just the way it has looked to me. I haven't checked out pitch data on his Ks. For now, I will call my observation truth, though. If I state enough uncorroborated observations as gospel truth, ESPN might hire me.



What about when the Sox tight?

Ahhh....no excuses but what can I say, it happens.

Using ESPN's scouting tab. It looks like Pedroia has some real holes in his swing right now as he is only hitting the ball well dead center of the plate(.400), middle-outside of plate (.364) and high-outside (.313).

High-middle .259
high-inside .133
middle-inside .269
low-outside .226
low-middle .200
low-inside. 0

Just for comparisons sake, Ortiz is hitting .317 or better in 5 of the 9 zones and only under .255 in two of the zones. Manny is hitting above .330 in 5 of the 9 zones and only under .247 in 1 zone.

His contact rate was astounding last year... I wouldnt count on it repeating, but I wouldnt worry about it either. He can lose a little there and still be one of the best 2B in baseball.

I've been more mindful of his lower OBP than of his increased Ks, though the K's have been noticeable, too. Last year, 8.1 percent of his PA's resulted in walks. This year, it's 5.3 percent. As a result, the spread between his BA and OBP has narrowed considerably .317 BA and .380 OBP in 07; .301 and .339 this year) - something that jumps out at me every time he comes up and they put his stats on the screen.

Who knows why this is? A statistical aberration based on a relatively small sample - less than a third of the season? Pitchers adjusting to him?

Not really about strikeouts, but this article needs to be read.

I found it to be hilarious:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3512455

Dustin Pedroia, 170 pounds of mouth.

Haha, I love Dusty.

Did you bring your glasses for the laser show tonight?

Uhhhhhh isn't the season more than halfway over?

Edit: I guess I should have looked at the date of the original post huh?

I think its a bit of over analyzing but I think he is just so aggressive and its working overall as he is hitting great.

He's kind of like the anti-Jim Bouton. In Ball Four there's a passage where Bouton talks about how he's not the kind of guy who wears tape on his wrists saying things like shit, goddammit and we can get these guys!

Pedroia is.

I thought this should be mentioned somewhere...

Yesterday Pedroia set the single season record for runs scored by a Red Sox 2nd baseman by passing Bobby Doerr.

Pretty impressive considering he did it on August 29th.

Pedroia is a freak. His Ks have leveled out a bit, he's gotten more AB this year than last.

His OBP is 13 points below, but his slugging is way up. As are his SB.

An astounding year for Pedro from the 2B.

It cracks me up when I see this thread title.

The Ks were a concern at the beginning of the year, because he was chasing bad pitches in bunches, not hitting them...and the other numbers all suffered. It's not that this thread didn't have its time and place.

But now here we are approaching the final month of the season...and he's 3rd in the AL in at bats per strikeout.

Betancourt-SEA 15.6
Polanco-DET 13.2
Pedroia-BOS 11.8
Suzuki-SEA 11.3
Mauer-MIN 10.3

It would be nice to see the walks go up a little. But he's having an ok year for a midget.

Speaking of walking little people, the Red Sox should hire a dwarf (is that the PC term?) to bat leadoff. At 3'7", baseball's smallest player in history has a perfect OBP (1 BB in 1 PA). Maybe a good choice to pinch hit with the bases loaded too.

It's so much fun to watch Pedroia play right now. 4-4 yesterday with a walk, two steals, and three runs; then 4-4 today with a walk and two runs. The MVP talk is a bit much, but right now he's doing everything right, from hitting to defense, to his slide into second base today.

The ump on that play did a fantastic job. Most of the times I've seen thatmove done by a runner they are called out anyway because it's such a tough thing to see if the tag as made or not.

This thread had its time and place but I think it would be best to change the name to something more appropriate. With that said, I would love to find someone who has any complaint about Pedroia. I never thought the kid could steal (14-1 SB/CS ratio) or have 15+ HR (currently at 15). I hope this is just the start of more things to come rather than just an off the chart year for him.

He's been a 5-tool player for a bunch of games this season. I don't know how he gained speed, but look at his SB total, he had 7 all season last year, now he's at 15. MVP may be too much, but he should be looking for some upgrade from RoY.

And you gotta love the way he cheered after his slide into 2nd.

SoY? Sophomore of the year. What the heck.

I looked it up in Google and they don't list Pedroia with one rebound. He's never going to hang in the NBA.

Player A
Rookie(22 yo): 623 AB, .273/.334/.371, 6 HR, 25 2B, 55 BB, 13 SB
Sophm(23 yo): 516 AB, .269/.319/.326, 4 HR, 13 2B, 36 BB, 4 SB
3rd yr.(24 yo): 670 AB, .312/.382/.446, 11 HR, 35 2B, 69 BB, 8 SB

Player B:
Rookie(23 yo): 520 AB, .317/.380/.442, 8 HR, 39 2B, 47 BB, 7 SB
Sophm(24 yo): 557 AB, .327/.372/.490, 15 HR, 42 2B, 39 BB, 14 SB


Player B, as you can guess, is Dustin Pedroia, and his sophmore campaign is not even finished. Player A is Pete Rose. Rose played primarily 2B during these years and was also known for his hustle and playing the game the right way and somewhat beyond his physical attributes would indicate...

Dustin Pedroia won ROY with one of the best rookie seasons by a 2B ever. In his second year he bested his rookie numbers, started the ASG, and is presently getting MVP consideration. Although it is way, way too early to discuss it with any merit whatsoever, it is perhaps telling that there is virtually nothing Pedroia could do at this point that would put him on more of a track for the Hall of Fame. Every time I look at Petey's numbers I get more and more excited about him. I havent felt this way about a player since Big Papi started going off and became the Big Papi we all know and love.

Also, Google tells me Dustin Pedroia is twice the ballplayer Cano is. Im still waiting for Cano to hit 30 HRs and become Super Rod Carew.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------





http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/wh...T-sox31.article

Nice post alskor. Pedey is canned heat, a camoflaged missle with a huge whuppin' stick for a warhead. Theo better start sharpening his pencil cuz' it's contract time.

An open letter to Mr. Pedroia,

Despite Guillen's suggestion that you should bunt, you probably shouldn't. You almost never strike out and you're batting .327.

Thanks!

- Red Sox fans everywhere

Why are people so obsessed with bunting? Have you ever seen anyone bunt? It's stupid looking.

I'm no expert but the few times I've seen Dustin bunt he didn't look too good. It could be me though.

He hasnt looked good to me either. In fact, Im pretty sure I remember him popping one up to to the catcher.

I love Pedroia and all, but I don't think he's worthy of the MVP chants.

Milton Bradley's numbers deserve it, but since Texas isn't in it, he won't get the votes. I think Pedroia and Youk split votes, as do Mauer and Morneau. With Tampa having nobody worthy since Longoria got hurt, I think Quentin will emerge with the most points, and he'd be a fine choice. To be honest, I'd consider K-Rod due to the Angels having only a meager runs per game differential, hence 8 games over their pythag, and he being 53 for 59 in save chances.

The MVP voting has really become a farce at this point because the writers have made it that way. Quentin? Frank-Rod? I don't think Quentin is the best outfielder on his own team, and I don't think Frank-Rod is even the best pitcher on his team! How can they be the best players in the league? Bradley has missed a ton of time to various injuries this year and his value with the glove is negligible, and he's a notorious jerk, so he isn't bringing anything to the team outside of his batting line to make up for it. Kinsler's been the best player on Texas this year anyway, but he's going to end up missing enough time to injury to give Pedroia a legit claim as the best 2b in the league. If DP finishes the season on a tear - say he wins the batting title and has an OPS north of 900, for example - he makes at least as much sense to me as guys like Quentin or whomever. Given that he's a guy I like rooting for and that there isn't an obvious candidate this year, I'm fine with him getting the MVP.

The best player in the league and the man to whom I would give the award: ARod. But I'm not in the BBWAA.

For the record, my idiot test for MVP candidates: they must be the best player on their own team and they must be the best player in the league at their position. A rational person could make a good argument for DP in both of those categories assuming that he finishes the season on a high note. Plus the comedy of DP winning the MVP would just be awesome. You know there would be a couple good quotes for the papers.

If the Twins win the division I'd give it to Morneau, if the White Sox win it should go to Carlos Quentin.

Who has been this year -- Dye? I don't think you can make that argument.



probably the best again this year, but it's not clear-cut, as it was last year. And if it isn't clear, I have no problem giving it to a guy who had somewhat lesser stats but was on a playoff team, so if the Yanks don't come on strong...

The only difference between Quentin and Dye this year is that Quentin has about 30 more walks and Dye plays the tougher outfield corner. Now, 30 walks is nothing to sneeze at, but neither is the difference between playing left and right. I'm not going to crawl out on a limb and try to make an argument that Dye has been better, but their value to the White Sox so far this year is very close to equal. Surely, you can put some spin on the themes of positional scarcity and defensive contributions and assemble an argument that Dye has been better. But it's close. Beyond that, Quentin's season just doesn't do that much to overwhelm me. Sure, he might get close to 40 jacks and a 290+ average with some walks, but he's a defensively limited left fielder playing in a HR hitter's park.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2008.shtml

And I agree with you that ARod's not as clearly superior this year as he was last year, mostly because he lost some time to the DL. If the Yanks miss the playoffs and the writers want to give it to someone else, I guess I'm okay with that. I just get kind of sick of the writers talking themselves into some weird MVP candidate. I would prefer it if they made the award more dignified by simply giving it to the guy who plays the best. But I suppose that if we're going to give it to the white position player who is having the best year for a big market playoff team who has a nifty story-line that can be spun into a hackish article that Pedroia is as good a choice as any.

WARP1 (wins above replacement, adjusted for this season)
Pedroia: 7.8
Quentin: 7.4
Youkilis: 7.4
Dye: 6.6 (Wow! Not as close as I thought, even after giving credit for his defense. BBs make a difference, I suppose.)
ARod: 7.7
Morneau: 7.7
Kinsler: 8.7
Bradley: 6.8
Sizemore: 7.7
Mauer: 7.8
Manny: 7.3
Bay: 5.0 (BPro's FRAA has a horrid rating for his defense this year and last after LOVING his defense for several years prior to that.)

After looking at that, I guess I'd give it to Kinsler over ARod if the choice were mine to make. He's really had a heck of a season. DP's the next on the list, though, tied with Mauer.

Are you really serious about Alex Rodriguez being MVP? Sorry, but his performance in August would pretty much kill any MVP consideration for him and I really don't care what he does in September garbage time. There is nobody this year who really stands out as MVP or even on the level of A-Rod and the runner up Ortiz of past years. Dustin Pedroia? Why not? In a year like this one, he's in the discussion. I agree that he needs to continue the tear that he's on and hit over 20 HRs and get 25 SBs to go along with leading the league in hitting.

Rotoworld hilarity



http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/playerpag...8844&id=232

Pedroia is on pace for over 200 hits, 120 runs, is leading the AL in Batting and could put up a 20/20 season. This is a guy who could pick up a silver slugger (for 2B), a batting crown, a gold glove (AL incumbant Polanco with 8 errors) and the MVP all in the same year, his second year.

...and a World Series ring...

The kid is just awesome. Its funny, but I see his approach in every guy we call up... Bailey, Lowrie, etc... They all approach the game the same way. Theo has created a "Red Sox Way" and all our young position players are coming out in the same mold... patient hitters who dont give up on ABs, who are aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone, who seem to enjoy hitting with two strikes on them, who run the basepaths and play the field the right way... Its just beautiful to watch, and we're only seeing the beginnings of this...

Ortiz and Pedroia clowning around the past few days has been hilarious, too.

Not that this matters to the voters, but you forgot pitchers. Here's the current top 10:

1. Cliff Lee 9.8
2. Ian Kinsler 8.7
3. Roy Halladay 8.6
4. Dustin Pedroia 8.1
5. Justin Mourneau 7.9
6. Grady Sizemore 7.8
Alex Rodriguez 7.8
8. Joe Mauer 7.7
9. Brian Roberts 7.5
10. Carlos Quentin 7.4
Kevin Youkilis 7.4

Let's be a voter and eliminate pitchers and guys who don't make the playoffs. That leaves the following:

Dustin Pedroia 8.1
Carlos Quentin 7.4
Kevin Youkilis 7.4

If Pedroia and Youk split the Sox vote, that leaves the award to Quentin.

How ridiculous is this award if we have to do all that to assume who's going to win? Take the players who were actually most valuable to their teams, eliminate pitchers and guys who don't make the playoffs, eliminate any guys on the same team, and whoever's left gets the award.

Now I know why I don't pay attention to that crap.

Anyway, looks like Cliff Lee is the Most Valuable Player in the AL (so far), by a pretty significant margin.

Good point. I wasn't paying attention to pitchers, but Lee has had a really nice season, as has Halladay.

It's also pretty ridiculous that Pedroia accumulated almost another half win of WARP1 within the past couple days. The dude is just on fire right now.

Leading the league in hitting at .333. That's getting up near Ted Williams territory (at least Ted's lifetime BA).

More like channeling vintage Nomar.

Am I the only one who doesn't buy into WARP when it comes to something like MVP?

Just because you're better than other guys at your position doesn't mean you're the best on, or most valuable to, your team. If you're going to factor in positional scarcity, might as well throw in salary, too -- after all, teams have limited budgets, so a cheap guy is more valuable than an expensive guy, all else equal. (Of course, that would give Pedroia a nice boost, too.)

(btw, isn't Kinsler out for the year?)

Pedey's emergence as a slugger is remarkable. Coupled with the power surge by Youks this year I can't help but hope they push each other to several WS titles by 2015.

Well, I think you have to take positional scarcity into account when you're trying to compare players' contributions across positions, and WARP or VORP are just about the best metrics we have available for that. A guy who plays a great second base and hits the same as a guy who is a DH is clearly more valuable to his team, and you have to take that into account when you're comparing players. If you fail to do that, the results are obviously unsatisfying.

As for considering salary in these discussions, I think that is the player's cost to the team. The MVP discussions and these performance metrics, such as WARP, are talking about the benefit to the team provided by the player.

If you want to talk about the player's on-field contributions compared to his salary, you're really talking about cost-benefit analysis, where you consider both sides of that coin. When the team is making personnel decisions, this is absolutely the right way to think about what the player brings to the table, and when we as fans want to piss and moan about Lugo's contract, that sort of analysis is also appropriate. But I don't think that has ever been the purpose of the performance awards such as ROY, Silver Slugger, Fireman, Cy Young, MVP, whatever. Those have always been (and, IMHO, should be) about what the player does on the field - about the benefit that he provides to the team. The cost side has it's place, but it's not in these discussions about playing ability.

This conversation got taken to another thread, re. MVPs. Rather than re-hash the same back and forth, it appears that the answer to my question, "Am I the only one who doesn't buy into WARP when it comes to something like MVP?" is yes. (I'm the only one who'll take the 1050 OPS LF over the 900 OPS 2B with a higher WARP.)

I moved my reply over there, but Pedroia looks like he wants to finish with a 1050 OPS right now, anyways.