Since we're questioning Okajima's viability now, how about Beckett? It's still early, but coming up on mid-June is not that early. One of the team qualities you like to have to see yourself as a potential world series team is having a bona fide ace. Maybe Josh partied a bit too much in the offseason and came in out of shape like one of the spring training pictures seemed to show. Whatever, he hasn't been the same pitcher as he was in 2007 at all. Even in 2006 early, he was excellent. There is no other pitcher on the team I'd call an ace. Hope Beckett gets it back together. Back to back would be great and would start cementing the dynasty here.

I don't know that his conditioning has been a factor in his inconsistency this year since he's still pumping it up there at 95-96 mph and sometimes faster.

But his curve seems to roll, rather than snap, and his location seems a tad off. In the ML, being off by a couple of inches on location can mean you get hit.

I'm still hopeful that he'll put together a great run and rip off seven or eight straight wins.

I think this is a mechanical problem, not a mental or conditioning problem (although I concede that a conditioning problem could cause a mechanical problem, a la Dontrelle Willis). His velocity is there, but his control of all 3 of his pitches was horrible yesterday. Last year's insane level of performance was obviously unsustainable, but I'm hopeful that Beckett and Farrell can get together to fix the flaws between now and October. In the meantime, no, we don't have an "ace," but we still have 3 guys capable of shutting down an opposing lineup on any given night once Matsuzaka comes back to join Beckett and (surprisingly, at least in my mind) Lester.

If we're going to overreact and judge Beckett as no longer an Ace because of a stretch of a few bad starts - despite a body of work to the contrary - well, shouldnt we be calling Masterson an "Ace" because of a few great starts - despite a body of work to the contrary?

It's a trick question...we do still have an ace, but it turns out Beckett is only an ace in odd-numbered years. Check out his DERA for his career:

DERA
2001 3.46
2002 4.75
2003 3.38
2004 4.19
2005 3.60
2006 4.45
2007 3.50
2008 4.36

Looks like we can expect another Cy Young level year in 2009. Woo hoo!

they're paying him to win big games in Sept and Oct.

Actually, they're paying him to pitch all season. Without his good pitching all season last year, we wouldn't have even made the playoffs. Josh will be fine, I'm not worried at this point at all.

Thanks to Colon and Masterson pitching as well as they have it makes it a lot easier to not be overconcerned with Beckett's struggles. He'll be fine.

No offense, but, HUH!?!?!?!? September games and June games count the same, and without them, as well as April, May, July and August, we don't get to October.

The Mark Bellhorn syndrome.

I think Saberhagen was notorious for this back in the day, before his arm completely went to sh*t.

Sex Panther Effect. 50% of the time every time.

yes, I know they count the same.
thanks.

but the guy's not a machine.
everyone has ups and downs.
I'd rather he have his now than in October.

the point is, an "ace" wins the biggest games of the year late in the year and if Beckett does that again (as he has in the past), no one will remember or care that he had a few rough starts in May and June.
at least I won't.

Frank, what is your definition of "Ace"Best stuff?Unhittable?ERA?Nolan Ryan fits those definitions, and he's a career .500 in wins/losses.To me, an ace means wins. Which can be Bartolo, Wakes, Masterson, Lester.When Beckett strolls up on the bump, do you expect something special, and a probable win?There's your ace.Also, I'd like to propose that there are probably more localised factors than off-season / ST conditioning, such as an intensely hot day, squishy footing on the mound, slick baseballs, an opposing team that just got it's a** chewed for its underachievement this season . . . I hate to agree with Alskor, but I think this is an overreaction. He'll be fine.I stand by my prediction before the season - Dice-K justs beats out Beckett in the AL Cy Young - K's and innings being the deciding factor.

He was indeed...and it looks like it was (almost) through no fault of his own:



When the syndrome was most pronounced (1985-1991) his WHIP, K/9, K/BB and other peripherals were all pretty much constant, but his BABIP was, by year: .269, .304, .274, .302, .255, .314, .261...I wonder if Beckett exhibits the same property in HIS every-other-year dominance.

Well, like I said in the kickoff post, if we have to start wondering about Okajima, then is it time to wonder yet about Beckett? Just trying to be fair. If I were a betting man, I'd bet Beckett gets it together, and real soon. It's just that, if the playoffs were to start right now, would you feel as though games 1 and 5 were practically in the bank, like last year? I wouldn't feel that way at all right now. The big guy has earned a lot of grace time, but, I thought he learned how to pitch in the AL last year, and that we'd see a strong semblance of 2007 Beckett this year.Edit, I didn't answer your question, but an ERA of 4.22 and 11 HRs in 79 innings aren't what I'd look for. His WHIP of 1.13 is, though, but the HRs take away some of the luster of that WHIP.

Beckett's odd-even pattern is NOT attributable to BABIP like Sabes' was. Beckett is all about the long ball...


When Beckett is dominating in odd years, he keeps the ball in the yard and walks fewer batters. When he's mortal in even years, he's giving up home runs at twice the rate. No idea why the effect would be so pronounced, but there it is. Unless Josh can cut his home runs allowed in half, he's not going to have the same success he did last year.

Is anyone noticing a change in the way he pitches? It seemed like last year he was 'pitching in reverse', where he was establishing his offspeed stuff earlier, then getting the heat. Is he throwing more gas and hitters are sitting on it? Is he not locating his breaking ball and 2-seamer? I know his fastball can be straight as an arrow at times, so if the other pitches aren't working, well, we have Josh Beckett ca. 2006.

I think a lot of it can be attributed to command of his curveball. It seems to bother him when he doesnt have 100% control of it. I wonder how much blisters/callouses/etc... could be responsible. We would never hear if he had some minor problem... and all it takes is a minor problem to mess that up. In fact, the odd/even thing can be probably be narrowed down farther into bad stretches and bad starts where he gets hurt by the long ball...

Jon Lester

Beckett is definitely pitching differently up to this point (not including yesterday's start). Before yesterday's game, he has seemed to have a ton of trouble locating anything other than his fastball which had also been iffy at times. You can also tell that it is affecting him mentally when his four seam fastball is consistently around 91-92 instead of 94-96, which to me, would seem like he is trying to force the ball to spots instead of just trusting his command and letting it fly. Yesterday he looked to be trusting his stuff and commanded his duece early in the game so the hitters couldnt sit on the fastball. He was consistently around 94 most of the day which was certainly a good sign and he seemed to start with his legs a bit wider apart when he began his windup yesterday. Maybe it was an adjustment Farrell suggested but whatever they did seems to have worked. I am still waiting to view his next few starts to see if it is going to be consistent dominance going forward. All wondering aside, it was re-assuring to see him dominate like he did through 7 against Cincy.

I saw Beckett for five innings yesterday and liked what I saw. Then it was off for Fathers' Day stuff, which was good. The big guys, Griffey, Phillips, Dunn and Encarcion were 0 for 14. Maybe Josh is just rounding into shape from the early back problem. Sneaked out of work to watch the Open playoff. Tiger's leaving the door open some but leads by 2.

My question is Lester morphing into are no 2 pitcher? I think so.