After Buchholz last start, he is now 3-1 with an ERA of 1.87. Overall, he has a BAA of .218, GO/AO of 1.17, and his K/BB is 35/14 in 33.2 IP.

In his last 3 starts Buchholz has surrendered only 1 ER with a K/BB rate of 21/4 in 17.2 IP.

Personally, I would like him to replace Masterson in the rotation. I'm not a fan of all the walks and HR he surrenders.

The Sox have an "embarrassment of riches" to choose from to fill out their rotation. This is really a wonderful problem to have! I imagine the Sox keep Buchholz in Pawtucket until either DiceK or Masterson implode...Buchholz wouldn't benefit from being called up to be the sixth starter/long man in the bullpen, so until there is a true need for him he should be in the rotation in AAA further refining his stuff.

So picky. I for one am a huge fan of all the walks and HR he gives up.

I wouldn't call him up until there is a real need for him... and right now there really isn't.

When Masterson falls back down to Earth with a resounding thud, or somebody gets injured, we'll see Buchholz back with the Red Sox. It won't happen before then, I suspect.

I firmly believe in the mantra 'you can't have enough pitching', but aren't the Sox going to have "too many" MLB quality arms next year and will they have a problem with keeping everybody happy? I mean, I couldn't blame Buchholz even now if he pined for the big team so much that it could start to get depressing. He has pitched a no hitter and he has great stuff by all accounts.

Beckett
Matsuzaka
Lester
Wakefield
Buchholz
Masterson
Bowden

Schilling?
Colon?

Can Theo and Tito juggle all that pitching next year. Assumptions:

1. Wakefield keeps going and becomes one of five or so knuckleballers that pitches effectively in the majors up to age 45 or so.

2. Bowden is ready (maybe not yet though).

Not that it relates to Buchholz directly, but the Sox seem to have organizational holes looming at 3B and (potentially) LF...it's possible that the most "expendable" of the young arms (Lester/Buchholz/Bowden/Masterson) gets moved for a top-notch position player. Just sayin'...

Thanman:
It's possible, but I don't see a 3B out there who will be available for that price. To be fair, surrendering any one of those pitchers at this point would have to be in a deal for someone of extreme talent due to how high the stocks of those pitchers are. Additionally, with the quality MLB-min players we have, we should have more money to spend. Oh yeah, Mike Lowell is signed for 2 more years. Plus Youk can play 3B in a pinch. Or Lowrie.

And, with Miggy C all signed up, Mark Teixeria would be one guy the Sox could target and he'll be a FA. No need to give up prospects there. Other than those two, I don't see any positional players that the Sox could target and have a realistic chance of getting. Teams are signing their younger talent, the firesales are happening with less frequency, and there seems to be a rise in a "giving the fans their money's worth" attitude with teams like the Pirates, Royals, Rangers, and so on.

So, in summery: Maybe. Could be. Probably not; I can't see any matches.

Edit: Just to further this example. If the Twins held on to Santana until June 26th, 2008. Imagine how much of a beating the Sox front office would take if they traded Lester, Masterson, Lowrie, and Coco. (Not Coco so much, but still) for Santana. And look at the three packages that were in front of the Twins (Hughes, crap, crap from the Yanks, the package they took from the Mets). It's pretty amazing how differently things all look in retrospect.

I'd be more concerned with Catcher, but I agree that Buchholz might be the odd man out. He's probably gaining more trade value now by pitching well in AAA than he is earning a ticket back to Boston.

Put me in the status quo camp. Buchholz controls his innings and refines his control and stuff in AAA until he is needed. If that doesn't happen before, he comes up on Sept. 1 Barring serious injury, I don't see an urgent trade need now, either. The team is solid - let it ride.

As for next year, again assuming the Sox avoid serious injury issues, Beckett, Lester and Dice-K are solid. Two of Buchholz, Masterson and Bowden fill out the regular rotation, with the third (probably Bowden) working on things with the PawSox. Wake either retires, or hangs out as pitcher emeritus, doing spot starts (all in domes!) and/or serving as the #6 in a six man rotation. Schilling and Colon don't come back.

Sox don't need a 3B, nor another OF. They will need a catcher in the medium (not short) term, but have time to let things sort themselves out. If an opportunity arises, great. But the Sox have every reason to play hard to get in any trade talks.

Sean Mcadam made a great point on EEI the other day. I dont agree with him, but it got me thinking. Somebody called and asked about Sabathia and Mcadam was saying that we do appear to have a glut of starting pitching all around the same age. He said he didnt think they would, but they could certainly think about trading a Bowden (plus lowrie/etc...) for CC, getting the extra wins CC would provide over the rest of the year. He said they would have no intention of signing Sabathia and they could therefore let him walk and get picks for him. If youre confident in your scouting and drafting - and we certainly should be - then you get a decent chance to get the next Buchholz/Bowden/Masterson and stat the process all over again.

The reason I dont think its feasible is that Bowden is now too valuable for this... but the idea is sound. Its what happened with Gagne.

Bowden, Clay and Masterson have options left so we may see a shuttle of promising young pitchers for a few years... there are worse problems to have.

With the Rangers in need of pitching and having some great catching prospects I have to wonder how long it is before Theo goes knocking on their door with one of their young pitchers.

Really? I'm more of a "gives up a ton of hits" guy.



What does the asking price for Jarrod Saltalamacchia seem to be? I know before they inquired about Buchholz but that asking price seemed a bit high. With Bowden's rise, would he be enough? Masterson?

I dont think there is really anything that could pry Salty loose. It would almost certainly be cheaper and make more sense to target Laird(when he returns), Max Ramirez or Teagarden (whose stock has dropped some).

Though to be fair, if anything is getting Salty it would be cheap young starters like Masterson or Bowden.

Personally I would hold onto these young pitchers no matter what. Let this be our strength. One day soon we may be forced to trade one of them. Until and if that day comes I dont like the idea of shuffling the deck... I like the hand we have.

It would be much wiser to target Max Ramirez. The cost would be much less and he could use a year or two of development time, especially learning the pitchers and serving as an understudy to Tek.

Teagarden, I don't believe he'll stick at C.

Regardless, this talk is not about Buchholz and his return to the rotation.

Guilty as charged. But hey, at least there was one active thread in OTF today! That's why I hijacked it in the first place.

Back to the point, I'm with the 'wait til someone starts to suck' camp. There is a log jam right now for pitching and bullpen work won't cut it. Let him continue to start, but monitor his innings for now. There may come a point where he is just so dominating at Pawtucket that keeping there is a waste of time. Then what do you do?

Really? You think Buchholz might be the odd man out? You'd think if Masterson keeps pitching over his head, he'd be someone the Sox could try to move.

Of course, this is a year to year predictability-- If Jon Lester has taught us anything, it's that Sox fans fall in love with a prospect-- the second he hits road bumps in the big leagues they want to move him-- then he suddenly comes roaring back.



At this juncture, I think it depends on Colon's status. Masterson is set to regress with a .207 BABIP and a 5.25 FIP. Honestly, I've seen enough of Colon to give the rotation spot back to Clay (whose .365 BABIP and 3.51 FIP indicate how unlucky he was in his 8 starts in boston) when Masterson slips, but if the Sox want Colon back in the rotation, I wouldn't be shocked to see Clay and Justin taking turns in the Pawtucket rotation...

Yes, I heard some stories like that about Lincecum before he came up. i.e., he was getting bored in the minors. Of course, his ERA was 0.29 and his WHIP 0.74 at AAA Fresno. Buch is no Lincecum but he's pretty damn good. Has he cured that arm height/release point problem that Hershiser was talking about though I wonder?

Probably, when it comes down to bringing up Bucholz, and the way he is pitching in Pawtucket it should be soon, the Red Sox will likely send down Masterson to get more seasoning, like learning a pitch to get left handers out more consistantly. I don't think he has ever pitched in AAA. Of course this all changes if someone else gets hurt.

I think the FO probably values Buch more highly than Masterson and that Masterson is being showcased for a trade. I have no idea what they would trade for, but I just can't shake that idea.

Well, the truth is that this organization has a huge hole when it comes to power production. That's the clear and obvious need...so extra pitching should probably be spent on the next Manny/Ortiz combo, which will be almost impossible to replace.

There are always the chance of FA signings, i.e Dunn or Holliday. But the Red Sox do have some power toiling in the minors (long ways away of course and may become busts) with Anderson, Middlebrooks, and Alamanzar. It will probably be a few years before the Sox have to worry about an Ortiz replacement and they can lock Manny up for another year if they choose. I think by that time the Sox will take a look another glance at their prospects before working out a trade to increase power.

The trade bait out of the Buchholz, Lester, Masterson, Bowden group is most likely Masterson. I think the organization is very high on the potential of Bowden while Buchholz clearly has the best stuff, and Lester has shown consistancy at the ML level.

Don't forget Reddick, Kalish and Lowrie. If, let's say, three of their position player prospects turn out to be decent major leaguers, they'll be ok. When the time comes, they'll complement their home-grown guys by making a massive overpay for a premier veteran offensive producer on the FA market. And there's nothing wrong with that.

Given Theo's aversion to trading top prospects, particularly pitchers, I don't expect to see any of the young guns moved. Masterson, Lester, Buchholz and Bowden can all buy houses in the Boston area. They're going to be here for awhile and that's a good thing.

Yes. Really. I think that if Masterson keeps "pitching over his head" that they'd be more apt to keep him. He's a good groundball pitcher with a great power frame. I can see him pitching for the Sox in postseason while Buchholz had to be shutdown late last season. It remains to be seen how both will react to a full MLB season plus a month, but my money is on the 6'6", 250 lb guy.

That been said, I'd like to see the Sox find a way into the postseason with both on the roster. I'm very wishy-washy.

Wasn't Buchholz shut down only because he reached his IP limit?

He also had some shoulder weakness, so he was shut down and sent home to rest, before starting an offseason conditioning program to strengthen the shoulder. Basically, the team caught a Papelbon-type situation, and skipped over the "season-ending injury" part in order to get to the "rebuild him, make him stronger" part of the program.

Screw Clay. Shawn Chacon is now available.

I mean-- did you look at his peripherals? I am a huge Masterson guy but he's likely in line for a huge stat correction, and to argue he's a better bet than Clay long-term (utilizing stats, not height/weight) is pretty foolish given their minor league (and major league) track records.

5 IP
4 H
1 BB
3 K
0 R

60 pitches, 37 strikes, 23 balls

Pulled after only 60 pitches? Barring injury, that might mean we might have a Buchholz sighting in New York this weekend.

He was pulled because of field conditions (apparently a storm rolled through).

We will not see Clay before August. Masterson is filling in adequately, but we sent Clay down to get himself to start leading with his fastball (he was pitching in reverse in the pros) and to limit his innings. If he had stayed up, then he would've reached his 200 IP limit for the season before the end of September and had to be left off the playoff roster (not smart). As it is, we send him down, work on his fastball command, limit his innings through June & July, and bring him back for Aug - Oct with plenty left in his arm.

I am truly looking forward to seeing how he pitches when he returns and I'm happy with how Masterson has pitched.

Masterson has to learn how to get LHHs out (.864 OPS against them). No Damon or Matsui today certainly makes the Yankees less formidable, but they still have Abreu, Giambi, Posada, Cano and Cabrera. Big test. Let's see how he does, hope it's good.

and you know that how, exactly?

I would like if the Sox put Masterson in the bullpen for an extra arm and move Buchholz back into the rotation.. that would be a very good scenario.

Looks like it is time, apologies for stepping on Annie's toes with the news:

BOSTON _ Red Sox manager Terry Francona just announced the club has optioned pitcher Justin Masterson to Pawtucket and have recalled infielder/outfielder Jeff Bailey.

This move will allow the Red Sox to recall pitcher Clay Buchholz to start against the Orioles on Friday at Fenway Park.

http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/SoxBlo...-notes-b-1.html

Get Clay back up, help the pen with Masterson down there. I like it.

Nice call, Nostradamus...


I like this move. Masterson has GOT to be better than what they have now...

Agreed on this being a positive mood. I think that Masterson coming out of the pen and throwing his best stuff is going to bolster the staff as a whole. Buchholz looks like he would be more effective as a starter, whereas Masterson looks like he could fit nicely in either role. I'm liking this a lot.

JM's trouble with lefties could also be mitigated by using him out of the bullpen. Good move.

Although the Masterson part of this equation seems to have worked out, Buchholz has been horrendous. With Wakefield down and Colon still out, is Buchholz our only option every fifth day or should someone else be called up?

Any ideas on why Buchholz just can't seem to put it together this year??

The Buchholz problem appears to be (at least to me) that he isn't good enough to attack MLB hitters, but his secondary pitches are so filthy that he can't learn anything else back down in AAA. He's only going to learn by having to improve in order to succeed, and he doesn't need to do anything different against minor leaguers. Not only do I think we are stuck with him until Colon gets back (especially with Wakefield hurt), I think that we are stuck with him staying in the MLB rotation in order for him to ever become the pitcher that he has the stuff to be. If he gets sent down now, the Red Sox will just have to pick up with him sucking again when he comes back, and the up-down-up-down can screw with his confidence on top of being dominated by MLB hitters. This one is more of a long-term decision, IMO, and it's better for the long-term progress of both the MLB team and Buchholz as a pitcher to let him keep taking his lumps until he hopefully figures things out, much like Lester did earlier this season. An automatic L every 5th start is obviously frustrating to watch, but the eventual payoff will be worth it IF he comes around, I think.

Might as well let him work through it ... I will be shocked if the team makes ther playoffs anyhow, so no reason not to let him get used to MLB hitters

The Red Sox FO made a brilliant move getting rid of Ramirez and getting Bay at the deadline. But you have to wonder about how serious they are in winning this year trotting an overmatched Buchholz out there who continually puts them 4 or 5 runs in the hole in the early innings. Lowell said as much in a quote in the papers today re Masterson.

Replacing Masterson in the rotation made no sense to me. you don't move your better pitcher to the bullpen. Your best pitchers start. It's Buchholz who belonged in the bullpen--to iron out his problems.

The other problem they have is Papi isn't himself, and they continue to bat him 3rd in the order--creating a huge power hole there. And batting Lowell cleanup wasn't a very good idea, either. Not with other hitters in a better groove. Francona finally put Youkilis there, but it took too long.

The Red Sox continue to have a poor road record--especially in one-run games. Teams that fare well at home and poorly on the road are usually good hit-no pitch teams. You always hit less on the road, so you have to have stronger pitching there. One of their problems has been Buchholz in the rotation.

I also can't help but feel that 100 pitch limits on your starters takes its toll on your bullpen this time of year. Especially if you replace a reliever every inning, needed or not, which seems to be the norm these days. The idea is to save your starters so they are strong for the playoffs--but you sacrifice your relievers--so take your poison.

Masterson was called to the BP because they needed a shut down arm and Masterson is a swing man. Buchholz has more talent and hopefully figures something out soon. He was dominating in AAA at the time they made the switch.

39% of baserunners who reach against him are scoring.
He has a BABIP of .368.

Both of which are wholly unsustainable figures. They will regress at some point; the BABIP for sure, and the strand rate should go up accordingly (though an argument can be made that his BR score rate is a bit truer because of the HR/9 rate). FWIW, his FIP is 4.14, which (considering FIP's low bias) isn't fantastic, but the large discrepancy between that and his true ERA shows that he's due for a bounce back of sorts.

Maybe it's just me, but Buchholz circa 2008 reminds me of Beckett circa 2006. Spotty control of excellent secondary pitches which leads to predictable fastballs (both in and out of the zone). He has improved velocity on the fastball (up over a mph from last year/start of this year according to pitchF/X) which should help get some swings and misses out of the zone, however, until he is able to get the change and curveball (and to a lesser extent the slider) down and over for strikes, he is going to be prone to the home run ball and, subsequently, the big inning.

The problem is with Wakefield down and out, there is no real option in the minors. Colon needs to be stretched out over a few more starts and even then, I still prefer Buchholz to him in the long run. Right now, it would probably be prudent for the Sox FO to let Buchholz continue to take a lump or two with the big club with the hopes that he can start to show improvement over the next few weeks which will put him in good shape for the stretch run as well as 2009.

I can't agree with you there. I'd much rather take a chance with Zink than hand the ball every fifth day to a guy who is in over his head this year. Every game is precious, and we are going to have to fight tooth and nail for the rest of the year against Tampa Bay, and he has gotten absolutely pounded this last month. In the last 5 starts, guys have hit .324 off of him (with a .986 OPS, so they are crushing the ball, as Jim Thome showed yesterday). It's a shame because his confidence has to be at an all time low right now. He still has a bright future, but in a tight pennant race, he has no business starting games for the Boston Red Sox, period.

Send him back to AAA and pray to the baseball gods that he recaptures that dominance, regains his confidence and is ready to bust out of the gate next year in spring training. We can't afford to experiment with him the rest of this year in the hopes he puts it all together. The last month is enough for me.

What makes you think Zink would fare any better? Buchholz bested the alternatives when he was in AAA, so there's no reason to think that any of them are significant upgrades over him once you consider a standardized stat (in this case I've been using FIP).

For example, Buchholz FIP in AAA (3.43) and MLB (4.65) both indicate he has peripherally outpitched Zink (3.70 in AAA alone) this season.



Both of which are driven by BABIP at their core and his BABIP since his callup is over .370 (unsustainable).



Colon is only the pitcher I'd consider swapping him for, since he's a veteran who we've seen at the big league level this season, and thanks to his oblique, that's still a couple weeks away. You say that the Sox "can't afford to experiment," yet you suggest putting Zink (a career minor leaguer with zero major league experience) into the heat of the pennant race in arguably the biggest baseball city in America. The stats show that that would likely end up as a lateral move at best, and that is not considering the situation Zink would be baptized in.

My answer to that is I truly don't know. A guy called up from AAA to make his first ML start can go one of three ways: (1) not well at all, resulting in a setback; (2) meets expectations; or (3) rises up to the occasion and exceeds expectations. Zink might be one of those who reacts to getting the call up by pitching the game of his life; certainly, the adrenaline would be flowing. I'd like to give him that opportunity.

And after watching Buchholz's last 5 starts, I'm of the opinion that just about anyone is going to be an upgrade. Perhaps it's somewhat of a crapshoot, but that's better than what you get by handing Buchholz the ball now, which I hate to say is pretty close to a sure loss. For the past month, he has stunk, and stunk horribly. He's not getting his fastball over, and guys are squaring up to his pitches and hitting them a long way, and you can see how he reacts when he has guys on base. I have zero confidence in him at the moment.

And I know the following theory isn't very statistically rooted, but a lot of hitters really have problems hitting the knuckleball; perhaps this might give Zink somewhat of a leg up in his MLB debut. I'm willing to roll those dice.



Even given my rudimentary grasp of stats like BABIP and FIP, I understand what you're saying here. Perhaps he has been the victim of bad luck during his period of suck this year. But I attribute that more to him not throwing the change up as much, and trying to get that fastball across that simply isn't getting by hardly anyone. They are crushing the ball which is why those balls are ending up as hits. It's a lot harder to catch a ball that is absolutely crushed by a good major league hitter because it was a meatball when it went over the plate.



I think if Colon were ready, he'd obviously be the best bet.... and as you said, he is a couple of weeks away, at best. Perhaps "can't afford to experiment" wasn't my best of choice of words. If I could restate it, I'd say that the Red Sox can't afford to put a pitcher out there who is not getting guys out. I had no faith in him going into Sunday, I have even less faith in him now, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of his teammates and coaches share that lack of faith in him, at the current time (I want to be clear I think he has a bright future, he's just over his head this year, and needs to work things out). The Sox calling guys up for spot starts has worked out pretty well in recent history. You can be assured that if they call upon Zink, they are making a judgment that as we speak, he has the ability and the mindset to succeed, something Buchholz is very clearly lacking at this juncture. Masterson was ready when he got called up. Hansack was ready when he was called up. Based on what I've seen, I think Zink would be ready as well.

Well Czar, we may both be right. They think highly enough of Zink to call him up on short rest to start for Wakefield, but I get the feeling they are staying put with Buchholz. My reservations aside, I hope Farrell and Buchholz are able to learn from the past month or so and figure out how to get his fastball over.

You want your best pitchers in the highest leverage situations. Starters are the highest leverage, along with closers. Masterson has not been used in high leverage situations in the bullpen. Mid relief is not high leverage.

"Buchholz has more talent" ?? Masterson has been the more effective starter this year. Talent is subjective.

And high-leverage situations aren't subjective? Well that makes sense. Each 'high-leverage' situation has to do with the situation and even some writers from BP put more emphasis in the situations for non-closer relievers than closers in terms of leverage. A mid-reliver can come in during the 6th and 7th with runners on and perhaps the game in the balance. Meanwhile, a closer generally comes in to protect a 1-3 run lead and isn't in there based on matchup, holding runners on base, etc. Most closers come in with a clean slate and are expected to slam the door. That is not a high leverage situation. I know, I know, it sounds ridiculous. Having Masterson there, where he can get by with two pitches and not allow the offense to see him a few times through the order is a bonus for the pen that was struggling and needed someone to solidify the mid-relief role.

High leverage situations aren't determined by title, they're determined by the actual situation in the same way that clutch at-bats aren't determined by the inning, they're determined by the situation.