http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7986

Lowrie is now sporting a batting line of .299.364 .474 .838 (154 ABs) good for 6th among SS' with 150 or more ABs. Behind Furcal, Hanley, Hairston Jr., Aviles, and tied with Reyes (in OPS).

The bad news for the Sox is that there are going to be a number of Short stops on the open market this off-season including Jack Wilson who is likely to be traded by the Pirates.

Possible SS free agents...



http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2...ree-agents.html

I'm sure they can trade him, but I think they will have to pay at least $14M of the $18M left on his deal. To me, this is Theo's worst deal.

Yeah if by "trade Lugo," they mean "pick up his entire contract and get nothing more than a low level minor leaguer in return," than yeah, they'll "trade Lugo."

I agree that it's nothing to jump for joy over. However, they already planned on spending the money and the replacement is better and dirt cheap. Even if they have to pay 14 of the 18 million they are still saving 4 million and improving the product.

If Im a GM, the only two on this list worth anything are Cabrera and Furcal... perhaps Uribe and Renteria, but they have pretty big question marks.

If Boston is eating salary Lugo is near the top of this list of available shortstops. If you had to rank those shortstops plus Lugo as hitters he comes in second behind Furcal, probably. That's crazy... It may very well be easier to move him than people think. Lugo at a subsidized rate (lets say 6 million per) for a controlled amount of years is pretty appetizing when you look at what it will take in terms of money and years to sign a Furcal or even an OCab. Dont get me wrong, we're not going to get crap for him back, but I could see us taking on a bad contract reliever or an injury prone pitcher on a bad contract. Imagine youre a midmarket GM(Toronto?) who needs a SS. Would you rather overpay to sign one of the above guys or would you rather instead dump a contract you dont like and get a subsidized Lugo back? It will be interesting to see how the SS market shapes up at the GM meetings.


I am also now 99% certain we will see Julio Lugo have a decent year next year with somebody else.

I'm not so sure Lugo will have a great year somewhere else. His defense has always been suspect and he was never a great hitter, but he was good in Tampa Bay's lineup. He outright sucked the last couple of months in LA and he's been pretty consistently average for the Sox. It's clear the Sox need to move him, they simply can't keep him on and not play Lowrie, so eating the money isn't a big deal - just another indication that the Sox front office, while great with player development, just isn't very good with free agents.

The Front office is Not good with Free Agent Shortstops. All are other major free agents have done what is expected of them. Drew, Dice K, Colon....
I am glad our SS is taken care for the next 7 years or more so we don't have to discuss this anymore.

I think the White Sox are a good possibility for Lugo, possibly as a 2B with Ramirez moving to SS.

When Julio Lugo was signed as a free agent during the winter of 06, the only team that viewed him as an option at SS was the Red Sox. Theo's primary competition to sign Lugo was the Mets, who wanted Lugo to play 2B. The Cubs had interest in Lugo as a CF, but beyond that there were no other teams in the league that trusted Lugo to man the SS position (beyond the Rays who traded him that summer).

If (when) the Sox shop Lugo this winter, there is no way that he is marketable, even at a discount, as a shortstop. Lugo's best position on the field is at second base, where his erratic throwing can be hidden and his still adequate range will be a plus. Furthermore, Lugo proved this year he can still get on base and steal on occasion, making him a decent option (with some salary covered or swapping of bad contracts) over two years for a team in need of a quick fix at second base.

So what teams are in need of a subsidized, OBP-minded 2B for 2009 and 2010?

Mets: Omar Minaya likes Lugo and would probably give him a chance to start at 2B, but I don't think Minaya would take on Lugo without moving Luis Castillo, who is probably a better player and signed for a year beyond Lugo.

Nationals: Jim Bowden loves toolsy players who can run fast, and Emilio Bonifacio has hardly turned heads as a 2B rookie. Austin Kearns (owed $8 million next season) has been a dissapointment for the Nationals and would be useful to the Sox as a fourth outfielder who hits lefties and covers all three OF positions. The Sox would still probably have to chip in money to cover Lugo's salary in 2010 (not to mention move Coco to make room for Kearns).

Diamondbacks: Orlando Hudson will leave for big free agent dollars this winter, and I wonder how much Josh Byrnes likes Lugo, considering Byrnes came of age in Theo's front office. Chad Tracy is making a lot of money ($4.75 million) in 2009 to sit behind Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson, so he could be a fair return to balance salaries (and play Sean Casey's part on the bench). This move would depend on Arizona's confidence in Chris Burke to handle 2B going forward.

White Sox: I have read that Chicago would like to move Alexei Ramirez to SS in 2009, making Lugo a good fit for the White Sox. The problem is that Ramirez is no whiz in the field, and a double-play combo of Ramirez and Lugo would probably make Ozzie Guillen's head explode, given his love of infield defense.

Giants: The Giants will need an entire starting infield next year, so I think this is a good fit. If the Red Sox move Coco this winter, I could see Dave Roberts as a nice salary match (Roberts at $6 million is of no use to the Giants with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn already in the OF). Heck, the Giants could try Lugo at 2B, SS, or 3B since they have no veterans or promising rookies to displace.

I thought about adding the Dodgers (with Jeff Kent departing), but they have too many talented infield prospects, not to mention a loathing of Lugo after his epic collapse with them in 2006 as a utility player.

Thoughts?

Lugo is going to be an overpaid utility man with the Red Sox the next two years. He will assume the Cora role unless the Red Sox just decide to eat the remaining contract and cut him.

I think it was Skip Carray the other day who said something about Jed Lowrie slowing down because pitchers have adjusted to him. Kind of worried me a little bit until I looked up the game logs and saw Lowrie had an awful July before hitting .299 in August, with 12 doubles no less. Sheesh.

Anyway, I wish Lowrie had more power, but he's only 24 so it'd possible he adds more power to his game.