[RedSoxAnni]

This thread is about three weeks late...

So in the past couple of days

Exposito dfa - picked up by Baltimore
Bowden dfa - cleared waivers

Repko to dl
Anderson called up

Marlon Byrd and cash acquired from Cubs for Bowden and PTBNL

Nate Spears dfa to make room for Byrd on 40-man roster

[rominer]

So...granted, 3 innings isn't even a big enough sample to qualify as "small sample size."

But after a relatively strong spring, Bowden's 3 innings with the Sox this year left him 3rd on the team in ERA and 2nd in WHIP while averaging a strikeout per inning. He was reasonably effective out of the pen when he was called up last year. He was very effective at Pawtucket over the past year and a half after being converted from starter to reliever.

Given that the bullpen has been a complete horror show, I have to wonder if trading a potentially adequate (or better) young reliever for a 34 year old outfielder who is hitting .070 (.219 OPS) – and only has a roster spot for a few weeks until Carl Crawford comes back – was really the correct panic button to hit.

That's not to say that Bowden was going to be "the answer" for a bullpen that needs a lot of answers (and fast). But I would probably rather have given him a few months to earn a bigger role – or kept him in Pawtucket for insurance once he cleared waivers – than shipped him out as part of the ongoing "Theo Epstein screwed the Red Sox" saga.

This post has been edited by rominer: 23 April 2012 - 02:10 PM

[The Ghost of Ned Martin]

rominer, on 23 April 2012 - 02:09 PM, said:

That's not to say that Bowden was going to be "the answer" for a bullpen that needs a lot of answers (and fast). But I would probably rather have given him a few months to earn a bigger role – or kept him in Pawtucket for insurance once he cleared waivers – than shipped him out as part of the ongoing "Theo Epstein screwed the Red Sox" saga.

But Theo is paying most of Byrd's salary.

Austerity, my dear man.

Austerity...It's the new Profligacy.

[Cudahy]

Theo had a higher opinion of Bowden than Cherington did. Time will tell.

[Cudahy]

We should consider going back to 8 relievers after using 6 relievers Yesterday for the second time in 4 games. Lars Anderson isn't going to see any action anyway. Call up Hill & Cook and send Thomas down.

[Manny's PS2]

I can only imagine Justin Thomas' bags are packed and he's waiting for the call, because either he has pics of JWH with a dead girl or Tom Werner with a live boy...I don't get how he is in the bullpen for the Sox.

[Hail Cesar]

Manny, on 26 April 2012 - 03:17 PM, said:

I can only imagine Justin Thomas' bags are packed and he's waiting for the call, because either he has pics of JWH with a dead girl or Tom Werner with a live boy...I don't get how he is in the bullpen for the Sox.

Bobby V apparently loves himself a lefty specialist. Somebody should have told him, however, that Justin Thomas is not a lefty specialist, but, instead, he's a hitter's dream.

[rominer]

Hail Cesar, on 26 April 2012 - 03:20 PM, said:

Bobby V apparently loves himself a lefty specialist. Somebody should have told him, however, that Justin Thomas is not a lefty specialist, but, instead, he's a hitter's dream.

Chris Parmelee can't wait to wake up.

[Mike LansWho]

RP - Rich Hill activated from 15-day DL

RP - Justin Thomas optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket

[Cudahy]

I hope Cook is called up today. I assume Atchison can still be sent down without losing him. It might make more sense to send Anderson back down instead.
If Buchholz struggles for the 5th time today there's gonna be discussion about Cook replacing him for now as one of the starters. Lot of pressure on Buchy today.
A bigger decision will be when Daiske is activated in the next 2 weeks.
Nice problem to have.

[rominer]

Cudahy, on 30 April 2012 - 03:15 PM, said:

I hope Cook is called up today. I assume Atchison can still be sent down without losing him.

Atchison is out of options. Atchison has also been the best pitcher in the bullpen. Whatever move they make to get Cook onto the roster, I would be surprised if it involved Scott Atchison.

[Hail Cesar]

rominer, on 30 April 2012 - 03:28 PM, said:

Atchison is out of options. Atchison has also been the best pitcher in the bullpen. Whatever move they make to get Cook onto the roster, I would be surprised if it involved Scott Atchison.

If you go be performance, I'd say that it would be Padilla, but, they won't go that route. If the Red Sox are going to try to get Cook on the roster, it will either by Lars or Albers who gets sent away.

[Mike LansWho]

Is it possible that they'll take their chances and keep him in the minors for a little while longer?

[Cudahy]

Going strictly by ERA, Atchison has looked good; But in 8 relief appearances he's only pitched effectively 3 times if you take inherited runners into account.
I've been using an adjusted ERA for many years where the runner at 3rd is charged to the outgoing pitcher, the runner at first is charged to the incoming pitcher and the runner at second is split 50-50.
Using this Atchison's 2.25 ERa becomes 3.75, while Morales's 4.69 becomes 3.52.
Although, since Atchison would have to clear waivers, that's more reason to go back to 13 pitchers.

[Hail Cesar]

Mike LansWho, on 30 April 2012 - 04:03 PM, said:

Is it possible that they'll take their chances and keep him in the minors for a little while longer?

They will if they don't mind their goose getting Cooked.

Get it? Cook? Cooked? HA!

[cue drumroll and wild laughter]

I'll be here all night, folks.

#sarcasm

[rominer]

Cudahy, on 30 April 2012 - 04:21 PM, said:

Going strictly by ERA, Atchison has looked good; But in 8 relief appearances he's only pitched effectively 3 times if you take inherited runners into account.
I've been using an adjusted ERA for many years where the runner at 3rd is charged to the outgoing pitcher, the runner at first is charged to the incoming pitcher and the runner at second is split 50-50.
Using this Atchison's 2.25 ERa becomes 3.75, while Morales's 4.69 becomes 3.52.
Although, since Atchison would have to clear waivers, that's more reason to go back to 13 pitchers.

Is this adjusted ERA a stat that you devised, or is it a more commonly accepted idea?

The merits of this adjusted ERA for relievers might be an interesting thread of its own. (Or at least it would have been back when there was more baseball talk around here)

In the meantime, though...there are various issues that make a one to one comparison between relievers difficult. Everyone's numbers are skewed, especially at this stage, by sample size. Usage patterns are different. Atchison has been used almost exclusively in (what baseball-reference would define as) medium and low leverage situations (just 1 hi-lev appearance), while Morales has been used exclusively in medium and high leverage situations.

But apart from ERA, however you choose to define it, what I see with Atchison is that he's pitched the most relief innings on the team. He has far and away the best K/BB ratio on the team – a function not just of a low walk rate, but also a reasonably high K rate (slightly better than Morales, in fact). Apart from Tazawa, he has the lowest WHIP on the team – and by a pretty wide margin over the guys that have been used most in critical situations.

When batters are putting the ball in play against him, it has mostly been on the ground. His line drive rate at this point is a minuscule 3% (Morales, by contrast, is giving up line drives 24% of the time, which is a bit scary for a guy who should be missing bats). Giving up solid contact that infrequently ain't gonna happen over a full season, especially for a guy with Atchison's stuff. But it's a pretty good illustration of how well he's pitched to start the year.

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 30 April 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

Is this adjusted ERA a stat that you devised, or is it a more commonly accepted idea?

The merits of this adjusted ERA for relievers might be an interesting thread of its own.

I like the idea, but it should be taken even further. It would be great if you could work the number of outs when a pitcher comes in to the game as well. For example, a pitcher shouldn't be punished for coming into a game with nobody out and a runner on 2nd if he gives up a ground ball to the right side and a sac fly. However, that same pitcher should be punished if he comes in with 2 outs and a man on 2nd and gives up an RBI single.

[Cudahy]

At the end of each relief pitchers appearance it's usually pretty clear - did he do his job? Plus, Minus, Even.
Morales - 7-2-1
Aceves - 7-3-0
Albers - 5-2-1
Padilla - 5-3-0
Tazawa - 3-2-0
Atchison - 3-4-2

Still no word on Cook. Sounds like they don't have to decide till after tonights game.

[Mike LansWho]

Should be worth noting that the Red Sox have until midnight tonight to decide. If no decision is made then Cook has 24 hours to request his release. The Red Sox then have 48 hours to add him to the 25-man roster or release him. Very possible that a decision won't be made today or even tomorrow. Complicating matters is the fact that Cook isn't on the 40-man roster. They could transfer Crawford, Ellsbury or Repko to the 60-day DL, otherwise they'd have to release somebody.

[Mike LansWho]

Interesting move:

Tazawa down to AAA

Iglesias up from AAA

Must be for depth with Youkilis and his bad back.