[BigSlick]

Ok folks, Here we go.

The concerns heading into 2013 are obvious. They need help almost everywhere. What should the Sox do to get better, not just in the short run, but for the long run as well?

I want Ellsbury re-signed, but I doubt they can fix this mess in one season, so, if they aren't going to sign him they need to trade him now.

I'd like to see Ortiz signed to a new deal as well. I get the feeling he could have played in September if the Sox were in it.

The pitching staff... Ugh! I don't even know where to begin...

Can someone please just hold me and tell me that it's all going to be better soon?

[FishCake]

First things first:
https://twitter.com/...ox/with_replies

The Valentine experience has come to an end per the Twitter thing.

[Hail Cesar]

BigSlick, on 04 October 2012 - 11:21 AM, said:

Can someone please just hold me and tell me that it's all going to be better soon?

Sure, for $200 an hour.

I bet Ellsbury will be a big name on the trade market, but the time to trade him was last offseason when his value couldn't be higher. Now, the Red Sox will end up getting far less for Ellsbury's services. I'm just not sure that investing a bunch of money on Ellsbury is a wise move given his injury history. Let some other team throw billions at him.

[Mike LansWho]

I think re-signing Ellsbury is a bad idea. I've been against it for a while now. I don't care that his injuries have been of the freak variety, but he is just too brittle. More importantly than that is the fact that he will get a contract based on his 2011 success. I don't think he will ever have a season like that again. Let some other team pay for that risk. The best thing the Red Sox can do is trade him now or hope he has another stellar year in 2013 and let him walk for a comp pick (I'm sure he'll turn down the qualifying offer). I would not be against trading him now. Any team that trades for him now will get a pick if they keep him for the entire season, right? In other words, his value at the 2013 deadline will be much less because the acquiring team can't get a pick. Besides, if the Red Sox are in a spot where they would want to trade him in July next season then things have not gone well anyway. Either trade him now or hope to get one more MVP-type season out of him.

[rominer]

Hail Cesar, on 04 October 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

I bet Ellsbury will be a big name on the trade market, but the time to trade him was last offseason when his value couldn't be higher. Now, the Red Sox will end up getting far less for Ellsbury's services. I'm just not sure that investing a bunch of money on Ellsbury is a wise move given his injury history. Let some other team throw billions at him.

With the changes in the free agent compensation rules, it's now or never, though. To MLW's point, if he gets traded in the offseason, then he'll have a full season with his new team, and they can get draft pick compensation if he leaves. If he gets traded midseason in the last year of his deal, they can't.

That being said, I would only trade him if it's a can't miss deal.

Even with Scott Boras as his agent, I'm just not convinced that Jacoby Ellsbury is going to get a $100 million+ deal without returning to his 2011 form in 2013. We're talking about a guy with a career OPS/OPS+ of .749/93 heading into his breakout year, and .682/83 in the half year since. He has great range, and much-improved routes to balls in the outfield, but he still has a noodle arm. And he is injury prone. Boras can argue otherwise – both injuries were freak on-field accidents. And they were. But they were exactly the kind of freak on-field accidents you'd expect a player like Ellsbury, who's biggest asset is his speed, to have. And the two injuries cost him 232 games over two seasons. That's a lot. And he'll be 30 in his first season with a new team.

I'd be willing to take my chances. If he is a $100 million free agent, you get a draft pick. And if he's not – because he really shouldn't be – then all this worry about Ellsbury being impossible to re-sign was for nothing.

[Cudahy]

Since Ellsbury is signed through next year & his value right now is much lower than a year ago I see no reason to trade him. There's a good chance he stays healthy next year. If he does they might reach a deal with him next July.

I assume the top priority will be a starting pitcher. Trades are 50-50 so the first option(with all the money they've stocked up) is who are the best available free agents?

The second priority has to be replacing Gonzalez & Crawford.

I hope they give serious consideration to a catcher. Shoppach had a better OPS than Salty & there's no sign that Lavarnway is ready.

[Mike LansWho]

Cudahy, on 04 October 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

There's a good chance he stays healthy next year.

Based on what? Was there a good chance that he would stay healthy this past season? All it takes is landing hard for a flyball, or crashing with another player, or having a fielder land on him and he's out for significant time.

Quote

Shoppach had a better OPS than Salty & there's no sign that Lavarnway is ready

While I don't disagree that they should pursue other catching options (namely, Mike Napoli), but this last quote is just silly. Shoppach only had a slightly higher OPS than Saltalamacchia, but Saltalamacchia had a much larger sample size and Shoppach was brought in mostly for matchups that were favorable. You simply can't compare the two.


On a different note, I'm a little suspect of Ross not being anything more than a platoon right-fielder. He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this year to the tune of a 1.010 OPS, but he struggle against righties posting a .729 OPS. I still think they should re-sign him, but I think they need to bring in a counterpart for him who can hit righties. I present to you Shin-Soo Choo. Left-handed right-fielder who can mash righties but can't do squat against lefties. He posted a .926 OPS against righties and a dismal .605 OPS against lefties. Both are average to above-average defensive outfielders. It's really kind of the perfect platoon. Choo is rumored to be available via trade this offseason. Still arbitration eligible, so fairly cost controlled for at least 2013. I think having the platoon in right and bringing somebody like Willingham in for LF makes this a solid outfield (if they plan to keep Ellsbury for 2013). Admittedly, I don't know what they'd have to give up for Choo and/or Willingham, but with this bad free agent class you have to be prepared to part with some talent to facilitate trades.

[rominer]

Mike LansWho, on 05 October 2012 - 02:31 PM, said:

On a different note, I'm a little suspect of Ross not being anything more than a platoon right-fielder. He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this year to the tune of a 1.010 OPS, but he struggle against righties posting a .729 OPS. I still think they should re-sign him, but I think they need to bring in a counterpart for him who can hit righties.

Daniel Nava is a platoon waiting to happen. .797 vs. righties to .613 vs. lefties. The .797 is good not great, but it was comfortably higher before his end of the season "turns out he needs wrist surgery" slump.

I wouldn't play Nava in RF, but he was vastly improved in LF as compared to his first stint in Boston.

I'm not sure what the team's plans are with things like "giving Ryan Kalish a shot" (or what his plans are with things like "not being injured all the time") – but if an everyday right fielder was one of their big ticket items this offseason, then a Ross/Nava platoon in left might not be the worst thing in the world. Big power dropoff when Nava is in the lineup over Ross, of course. But it could work…if the other corner spot is solidified.

Either way, I prefer Ross in LF. He can use his arm to turn a lot of doubles into singles or outs at Fenway, and his occasionally adventurous routes to fly balls become less of an issue.

[Mike LansWho]

rominer, on 05 October 2012 - 03:25 PM, said:

Daniel Nava is a platoon waiting to happen.

You're probably right, but I get the feeling that Daniel Nava is a platoon that is waiting for another losing season.

[rominer]

Mike LansWho, on 05 October 2012 - 03:47 PM, said:

You're probably right, but I get the feeling that Daniel Nava is a platoon that is waiting for another losing season.

Like I said, I think it works if they solidify the other corner.

I don't think an .800 OPS is unrealistic for Nava if he's used in a platoon. But it's obviously not the kind of .800 OPS that involves a lot of home runs (one of the areas where the Red Sox were really, really weak this year). Doesn't really work if you don't have a legit power threat on the other side of the outfield.

I like it in part because it moves Ross to left field. But obviously that doesn't get you anywhere if right field is going to be Ryan Sweeney posting a SLG that's lower than his BA.

[Cudahy]

Since Navas' OB was second to Ortiz he should figure in next year. Given the increasing unpredictability of injuries he'll probably get over 300 ABs.

[The Ghost of Ned Martin]

rominer, on 05 October 2012 - 04:24 PM, said:

Like I said, I think it works if they solidify the other corner.

I don't think an .800 OPS is unrealistic for Nava if he's used in a platoon. But it's obviously not the kind of .800 OPS that involves a lot of home runs (one of the areas where the Red Sox were really, really weak this year). Doesn't really work if you don't have a legit power threat on the other side of the outfield.

I like it in part because it moves Ross to left field. But obviously that doesn't get you anywhere if right field is going to be Ryan Sweeney posting a SLG that's lower than his BA.

I don't hate the thought of a LF platoon that includes Ross as the RH bat. I am still interested to see what Kalish can be if he can actually stay healthy for more than a few minutes but Nava isn't a bad alternative. I am interested in your thoughts about Nava's possible ,800 OPS not being the kind that includes a lot of HRs. This is true of course and, as an OBBF (Old Bastard Baseball Fan) initially scoffed at the whole .OPS stat because, to me, slugging pct and on base percentage did not deserve equal weighting in that equation. I have, over the years, come to feel differently about that. So, to me, an OPS of .800 is what it is, regardless of the composition of the stat.

I completely agree that they could use some power in RF but not sure where they get that. One thing they cannot do is to throw a multi year massive contract at Josh Hamilton. If they do, I may finally have to turn in my Red Sox fan card.

[rominer]

The Ghost of Ned Martin, on 06 October 2012 - 03:07 PM, said:

I completely agree that they could use some power in RF but not sure where they get that. One thing they cannot do is to throw a multi year massive contract at Josh Hamilton. If they do, I may finally have to turn in my Red Sox fan card.

I don't particularly like Hamilton, and I don't think his fragile psyche would lead him to a good place if he came to Boston. But I'm sure if he was wearing a Red Sox uniform, I could find a way to like him as long as he didn't suck at baseball.

He's not really what I had in mind. Although, I don't really know what I had in mind. Nick Swisher would be ok if the Yankees don't pick up his option, but that's more like "Cody Ross with some walks." And at that point defensively I'm probably leaning more towards Swisher in LF/1B with Ross in RF. Doesn't really solve the "sometimes Cody Ross is an adventure on fly balls" issue.

I don't really know what's out there, plausibly, on the trade market. Saying "I'd like the Sox to have a solid everyday RF with power" might be like saying "I'd like the Sox to land an ace starter." But I like the idea of Ross in LF better than in right. I don't hate the idea of Nava being used as a platoon player there. And, where "The Trade" left holes at 1B and a corner OF spot, I think my focus would be more on the OF than 1B. There are more stopgap options at first base.

[Mike LansWho]

rominer, on 06 October 2012 - 03:46 PM, said:

He's not really what I had in mind. Although, I don't really know what I had in mind. Nick Swisher would be ok if the Yankees don't pick up his option, but that's more like "Cody Ross with some walks."

A few things. First of all, there is no option on Swisher. He will be a free agent going into the offseason. Secondly, Swisher may be "Cody Ross with some walks" but he's also "Cody Ross who doesn't need a platoon partner". Swisher, being a switch hitter, has historically reached base against righties and lefties at very respectable clips. Third, he has a smile that warms my heart.

[rominer]

Mike LansWho, on 06 October 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:

A few things. First of all, there is no option on Swisher. He will be a free agent going into the offseason.

That's crazy. I swear he's been one of those guys with an asterisk next to his name on the "potential free agents" list all year.

I stand corrected.

So there's that. I get the no platoon thing with Swisher, my point is that adding Nick Swisher isn't going to make Cody Ross a left fielder. I would rather make Cody Ross a left fielder.

[Mike LansWho]

rominer, on 06 October 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

That's crazy. I swear he's been one of those guys with an asterisk next to his name on the "potential free agents" list all year.

"Good clubhouse guys" get an asterisk next to their names on free agent list.

Quote

So there's that. I get the no platoon thing with Swisher, my point is that adding Nick Swisher isn't going to make Cody Ross a left fielder. I would rather make Cody Ross a left fielder.

I personally think that Josh Willingham should be the next Red Sox left fielder, but that's easier said than done. Willingham should help solidify the outfield to make a platoon situation in right workable. Swisher could be used as primarily as a 1B-man. I would bring Napoli in as a C/1B/DH, sell Saltalamacchia on his power to a potential trade partner. That gives the team perfect insurance if Ortiz should run into any injuries while providing plenty of AB's for all in the even he stays healthy.

[Cudahy]

While I would be totally OK with Swisher replacing Gonzalez I just expect the Yankees to offer him more money. Are they not interested in resigning him?
Like the idea of trading our strike-out king with a .184 avg with RISP for a better bat catcher.

[Mike LansWho]

Cudahy, on 07 October 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

While I would be totally OK with Swisher replacing Gonzalez I just expect the Yankees to offer him more money. Are they not interested in resigning him?

This is a very good point and something I mentioned when I first brought Swisher up a few weeks ago. Realistically it will be more than the Red Sox and Yankees interested. He could very well end up in Philly or elsewhere. He will be sought after as he is the epitome of consistency and supposedly a good guy/great teammate, the classic 'clubhouse guy'. He's a perfect fit to bring in if you want to change the culture.

[rominer]

My expectation is that if Swisher isn't a Yankee, it's because Josh Hamilton is.

At which point at least I wouldn't have to have any sort of guilt about not giving a damn about Josh Hamilton's "story."

[Mike LansWho]

rominer, on 07 October 2012 - 07:21 PM, said:

My expectation is that if Swisher isn't a Yankee, it's because Josh Hamilton is.

I have a feeling that Swisher is the type of guy who likes a challenge and would enjoy being an ingredient in a 'retooling' project. If his price tag isn't astronomical then he'll have his choice of just about any team he wants. I don't think it's a slam dunk that the Yankees will keep him. Maybe he can't stand horseface or he owes Joba's mom some money.