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2012 Pythagorean Thread
#21
MrNewEngland
- My name is dinosaur and I came here to party.
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- Group: Rooters Supporter
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- Joined: 21-June 05
Posted 17 April 2012 - 12:44 PM
MultiQuote
#22
Lyford
- A Greenville
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- Group: Royal Rooters
- Posts: 55
- Joined: 01-December 03
Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:39 AM
Season To Date:
Past Week:
I know things look a bit gloomy right now, but lets look at the bright side. Remember how painful that collapse was last September? Well, the Red Sox are sympathetic and determined not to put their fans through that again...
- The best day of the week was Sunday, as they got rained out. The second best day of the week was Thursday, because they had a scheduled off-day.
- It's not like there's just one part of the team struggling. They lost a game this week in which they allowed one run. They lost a game this week in which they scored nine.
- I'm tempted to say that the offense was particularly bad this week, scoring three runs or fewer in four consecutive games. But that would not be giving fair credit to the pitching, as they allowed 18, six, six and 15 in four consecutive games, too.
- So they are now in a flat-footed tie with the 2011 Red Sox for worst start in the 2010s by a Red Sox team, at 4-10.
- Noteworthy - the two "end-of-the-game" pitchers faced 17 batters this week and retired zero (0) of them, allowing 6 walks, 11 hits and 11 runs. I'm willing to cut Aceves a smidge of slack as he hadn't pitched in a week, because they hadn't had a lead after the 2nd inning in a week. Melancon's now going to see if he can get AAA hitters out.
- So, who's responsible for this putrid start? Everyone.
- The starting pitchers - In 14 games, they've got six quality starts. They've also got six starts in which the starter gave up at least five runs (and three of those were seven run performances). They've been behind in almost every game.
- The bullpen - See that note about the two "end-of-the-game" pitcher just above? Well, they've been representational rather than aberrational.
- The position players - Pedroia's been mediocre. Adrian Gonzalez (.281/.317/.439/.756) and Kevin Youkilis (.190/.271/.310/.580) are the middle of the lineup, and they've been bad and worse. My "favorite" line so far is probably Jason Repko's, who has been up 11 times and made 11 outs, as his one hit was a single and he was thrown out at 2nd trying to stretch it into a double. That's right, he hasn't reached base by any means yet.
- The Manager - Keeps putting Jason Repko on the field. And I'm going to complain about a game I didn't even see - with two runners on base in the seventh inning on Monday, I was watching the gamecast on my phone, and knew it was time to get Bard out of the game. As we were waiting for the parade to step off in Lexington, my son asked my whether there was any score yet, and I told him, "no, but there will be in a minute." Ball four, bases loaded. And Bard stays in the game. Ball four, 1-0 Tampa, now Bard comes out.
- The General Manager - Why the hell is Jason Repko employed by the Red Sox in the first place? Why would you even consider adding a player like that? Yes, if people aren't hurt, he's not playing. But even if people are hurt, you don't want him playing. His presence in the organization is an unforced error by the GM. There have been 504 Major Leaguers with 775+ plate appearances since Repko debuted in 2005. He's the 475th best of them offensively. He's not a valid Major League hitter. A team with the budget of the Red Sox has got to have six outfielders in its organization more worthy of at-bats than Jason Repko, or the GM's not doing his job.
- But things are looking up, because they always play well in Minnesota, right?
- Red Sox Player of the week - There were some who thought he was done two years ago, but apparently not, as David Ortiz (.421/.476/.684/1.160) had another excellent week and is off to a great start.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the week - The two "questionable" components to the starting rotation had very good starts this week. It's tough to reward a pitcher who walks in the go-ahead run in a tie game in the 7th inning, but in terms of doing his job - retire the most oppenent batters while allowing the fewer opponent runs - Daniel Bard was the most successful starter they had, followed closely by Felix Doubront, who gave up one in six innings, and handed an eight-run lead off to the bullpen.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/23/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 5.875 (2) 2.625 (1) 0.814 (1) 13 13 0 Chicago 4.467 (7) 3.533 (3) 0.606 (2) 9 9 0 New York 6.000 (1) 4.867 (9) 0.595 (3) 9 9 0 Toronto 5.200 (4) 4.667 (8) 0.549 (4) 8 9 1 Detroit 4.375 (8) 4.063 (4) 0.534 (5) 9 10 1 Cleveland 5.286 (3) 5.143 (12) 0.513 (6) 7 8 1 Tampa Bay 4.750 (6) 4.875 (10) 0.488 (7) 8 9 1 Baltimore 4.250 (9) 4.438 (6) 0.480 (8) 8 9 1 Los Angeles 4.188 (10) 4.438 (6) 0.473 (9) 8 6 -2 Oakland 3.059 (14) 3.294 (2) 0.466 (10) 8 8 0 Seattle 3.529 (13) 4.235 (5) 0.417 (11) 7 7 0 Boston 5.000 (5) 6.786 (14) 0.364 (12) 5 4 -1 Kansas City 3.733 (11) 5.133 (11) 0.358 (13) 5 3 -2 Minnesota 3.625 (12) 5.313 (13) 0.332 (14) 5 5 0 Top 5 projections (using current winning %) Texas 132 30 Detroit 101 61 Chicago 97 65 New York 97 65 Toronto 97 65 Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %) Texas 132 30 Chicago 98 64 New York 96 66 Toronto 90 72 Detroit 88 74
Past Week:
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/23/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 8.167 (1) 3.000 (1) 0.862 (1) 5 5 0 Tampa Bay 5.571 (3) 3.000 (1) 0.756 (2) 5 5 0 Chicago 5.000 (5) 3.714 (6) 0.633 (3) 4 4 0 New York 7.333 (2) 5.500 (12) 0.629 (4) 4 4 0 Oakland 3.429 (10) 3.000 (1) 0.561 (5) 4 4 0 Los Angeles 3.571 (9) 3.429 (4) 0.519 (6) 4 3 -1 Cleveland 3.667 (8) 3.667 (5) 0.500 (7) 3 4 1 Baltimore 4.000 (7) 4.429 (7) 0.454 (8) 3 4 1 Toronto 5.167 (4) 5.833 (13) 0.445 (9) 3 4 1 Minnesota 4.286 (6) 5.286 (11) 0.405 (10) 3 3 0 Detroit 3.143 (13) 4.429 (7) 0.348 (11) 2 4 2 Seattle 3.333 (12) 5.000 (10) 0.323 (12) 2 1 -1 Kansas City 2.833 (14) 4.667 (9) 0.286 (13) 2 0 -2 Boston 3.400 (11) 9.200 (14) 0.139 (14) 1 0 -1
I know things look a bit gloomy right now, but lets look at the bright side. Remember how painful that collapse was last September? Well, the Red Sox are sympathetic and determined not to put their fans through that again...
- The best day of the week was Sunday, as they got rained out. The second best day of the week was Thursday, because they had a scheduled off-day.
- It's not like there's just one part of the team struggling. They lost a game this week in which they allowed one run. They lost a game this week in which they scored nine.
- I'm tempted to say that the offense was particularly bad this week, scoring three runs or fewer in four consecutive games. But that would not be giving fair credit to the pitching, as they allowed 18, six, six and 15 in four consecutive games, too.
- So they are now in a flat-footed tie with the 2011 Red Sox for worst start in the 2010s by a Red Sox team, at 4-10.
- Noteworthy - the two "end-of-the-game" pitchers faced 17 batters this week and retired zero (0) of them, allowing 6 walks, 11 hits and 11 runs. I'm willing to cut Aceves a smidge of slack as he hadn't pitched in a week, because they hadn't had a lead after the 2nd inning in a week. Melancon's now going to see if he can get AAA hitters out.
- So, who's responsible for this putrid start? Everyone.
- The starting pitchers - In 14 games, they've got six quality starts. They've also got six starts in which the starter gave up at least five runs (and three of those were seven run performances). They've been behind in almost every game.
- The bullpen - See that note about the two "end-of-the-game" pitcher just above? Well, they've been representational rather than aberrational.
- The position players - Pedroia's been mediocre. Adrian Gonzalez (.281/.317/.439/.756) and Kevin Youkilis (.190/.271/.310/.580) are the middle of the lineup, and they've been bad and worse. My "favorite" line so far is probably Jason Repko's, who has been up 11 times and made 11 outs, as his one hit was a single and he was thrown out at 2nd trying to stretch it into a double. That's right, he hasn't reached base by any means yet.
- The Manager - Keeps putting Jason Repko on the field. And I'm going to complain about a game I didn't even see - with two runners on base in the seventh inning on Monday, I was watching the gamecast on my phone, and knew it was time to get Bard out of the game. As we were waiting for the parade to step off in Lexington, my son asked my whether there was any score yet, and I told him, "no, but there will be in a minute." Ball four, bases loaded. And Bard stays in the game. Ball four, 1-0 Tampa, now Bard comes out.
- The General Manager - Why the hell is Jason Repko employed by the Red Sox in the first place? Why would you even consider adding a player like that? Yes, if people aren't hurt, he's not playing. But even if people are hurt, you don't want him playing. His presence in the organization is an unforced error by the GM. There have been 504 Major Leaguers with 775+ plate appearances since Repko debuted in 2005. He's the 475th best of them offensively. He's not a valid Major League hitter. A team with the budget of the Red Sox has got to have six outfielders in its organization more worthy of at-bats than Jason Repko, or the GM's not doing his job.
- But things are looking up, because they always play well in Minnesota, right?
- Red Sox Player of the week - There were some who thought he was done two years ago, but apparently not, as David Ortiz (.421/.476/.684/1.160) had another excellent week and is off to a great start.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the week - The two "questionable" components to the starting rotation had very good starts this week. It's tough to reward a pitcher who walks in the go-ahead run in a tie game in the 7th inning, but in terms of doing his job - retire the most oppenent batters while allowing the fewer opponent runs - Daniel Bard was the most successful starter they had, followed closely by Felix Doubront, who gave up one in six innings, and handed an eight-run lead off to the bullpen.
#23
Hail Cesar
- Season Ticket Holder
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- Group: Royal Rooters
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Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:44 AM
Well... at least the Red Sox aren't at the very bottom of the projection this week.
#24
Mike LansWho
- Rooters Hall of Fame
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- Group: Rooters Supporter
- Posts: 7,999
- Joined: 15-January 04
Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:52 AM
Lyford, on 23 April 2012 - 09:39 AM, said:
My "favorite" line so far is probably Jason Repko's, who has been up 11 times and made 11 outs, as his one hit was a single and he was thrown out at 2nd trying to stretch it into a double. That's right, he hasn't reached base by any means yet.
Not for nothing, but that actually does count as reaching base. That's one total base over 11 plate appearances for an OBP of .090. Makes Marlon Byrd look pretty good.
#25
Lyford
- A Greenville
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- Group: Royal Rooters
- Posts: 55
- Joined: 01-December 03
Posted 30 April 2012 - 08:56 AM
Season To Date:
Past Week:
We live in a post-modern, relativistic age, where certainty and judgementalism are frowned upon. I'm going to buck the spirit of the age and state, unequivocally, that 6-1 is better than 0-5.
- Obviously, Minnesota and Chicago are not Tampa and Detroit and Texas and New York. Doesn't matter. You've got to beat the teams on the schedule. Last week, they didn't do that. This week, they did.
- Big hits: Kevin Youkilis' Grand Slam on Thursday night. Darnell McDonald's three-run double on Friday night.
- Philip Humber followed up his perfect game with the worst start of his ML career, as the Red Sox put up nine runs against him in less than five innings of work.
- One of the things that was different between this week and last was the timeliness (i.e., "luck" or "clutchness" [depending on your worldview]) of their offensive production. Last week they created 22 runs and scored 17. This week, they created 37 and scored 46. (Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, the second one, I think...)
- The Red Sox are up to second in the league in runs scored. They are up to 13th in the league in runs allowed.
- Again, they're exactly where they were a year ago after 21 games - 10-11. Like last year, they are 3 1/2 games out in the East after 21 games, albeit in 5th rather than 3rd.
- Unlike last year, they reached .500 for the first time after game 20. Last year, it took them until game 40.
- After five days (six if you go back to last week) of beating up opposition pitchers, they've now scored only one run in consecutive games. Thanks to Lester, that was good enough to come out of those two games with a split.
- Scoring one run per game is not a good long-term strategy.
- Quote of the week: "Are you trying to give me a heart attack?"
- Bobby Valentine to Alfredo Aceves, after Aceves gave up a long fly ball with one man on and a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in the first game in Minnesota
- Red Sox Player of the Week - There were some good performances from the offense, but nothing overpowering. What happened instead was they had very good individual games by players scattered throughout the lineups, and not much in the way of offensive sinkholes. The best performance on a per-out basis (for a player with more than 8 at-bats) was David Ortiz, but from a counting stats perspective, it was Mike Aviles. Given the positional difference, I'm going with Aviles this week.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A lot of candidates here. Alfredo Aceves saved three games with three scoreless performances. Five different relievers pitched multiple innings without allowing a run. Daniel Bard had an effective relief performance and a very good start. But, despite the fact that his first of two wins on the week was a mediocre performance, I'm going to go with Jon Lester, whose stellar performance on Saturday resulted in a win in a game in which they scored only one run.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 5.455 (3) 3.045 (1) 0.744 (1) 16 16 0 New York 5.619 (1) 4.810 (11) 0.571 (2) 12 12 0 Baltimore 4.318 (7) 3.727 (3) 0.567 (3) 12 14 2 Toronto 4.727 (4) 4.182 (6) 0.556 (4) 12 12 0 Tampa Bay 4.682 (5) 4.364 (8) 0.532 (5) 12 14 2 Chicago 3.864 (12) 3.727 (3) 0.516 (6) 11 11 0 Cleveland 4.500 (6) 4.550 (9) 0.495 (7) 10 11 1 Boston 5.524 (2) 5.619 (13) 0.492 (8) 10 10 0 Seattle 4.000 (9) 4.348 (7) 0.462 (9) 11 11 0 Detroit 4.273 (8) 4.727 (10) 0.454 (10) 10 11 1 Los Angeles 3.455 (13) 4.136 (5) 0.418 (11) 9 7 -2 Oakland 2.913 (14) 3.522 (2) 0.414 (12) 10 11 1 Kansas City 3.952 (11) 4.857 (12) 0.407 (13) 9 6 -3 Minnesota 4.000 (9) 5.714 (14) 0.342 (14) 7 6 -1 Top 5 projections (using current winning %) Texas 118 44 Baltimore 103 59 Tampa Bay 103 59 New York 93 69 Cleveland 89 73 Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %) Texas 120 42 Baltimore 93 69 New York 92 70 Toronto 90 72 Tampa Bay 89 73
Past Week:
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Baltimore 4.500 (5) 1.833 (1) 0.838 (1) 5 5 0 Boston 6.571 (1) 3.286 (5) 0.780 (2) 5 6 1 Tampa Bay 4.500 (5) 3.000 (2) 0.677 (3) 4 5 1 Toronto 3.714 (10) 3.143 (3) 0.576 (4) 4 3 -1 Seattle 5.333 (2) 4.667 (11) 0.561 (5) 3 4 1 Kansas City 4.500 (5) 4.167 (8) 0.535 (6) 3 3 0 Texas 4.333 (8) 4.167 (8) 0.518 (7) 3 3 0 New York 4.667 (4) 4.667 (11) 0.500 (8) 3 3 0 Cleveland 2.667 (11) 3.167 (4) 0.422 (9) 3 3 0 Minnesota 5.200 (3) 7.000 (14) 0.367 (10) 2 1 -1 Chicago 2.571 (12) 4.143 (7) 0.295 (11) 2 2 0 Detroit 4.000 (9) 6.500 (13) 0.291 (12) 2 1 -1 Oakland 2.500 (13) 4.167 (8) 0.282 (13) 2 3 1 Los Angeles 1.500 (14) 3.333 (6) 0.188 (14) 1 1 0
We live in a post-modern, relativistic age, where certainty and judgementalism are frowned upon. I'm going to buck the spirit of the age and state, unequivocally, that 6-1 is better than 0-5.
- Obviously, Minnesota and Chicago are not Tampa and Detroit and Texas and New York. Doesn't matter. You've got to beat the teams on the schedule. Last week, they didn't do that. This week, they did.
- Big hits: Kevin Youkilis' Grand Slam on Thursday night. Darnell McDonald's three-run double on Friday night.
- Philip Humber followed up his perfect game with the worst start of his ML career, as the Red Sox put up nine runs against him in less than five innings of work.
- One of the things that was different between this week and last was the timeliness (i.e., "luck" or "clutchness" [depending on your worldview]) of their offensive production. Last week they created 22 runs and scored 17. This week, they created 37 and scored 46. (Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, the second one, I think...)
- The Red Sox are up to second in the league in runs scored. They are up to 13th in the league in runs allowed.
- Again, they're exactly where they were a year ago after 21 games - 10-11. Like last year, they are 3 1/2 games out in the East after 21 games, albeit in 5th rather than 3rd.
- Unlike last year, they reached .500 for the first time after game 20. Last year, it took them until game 40.
- After five days (six if you go back to last week) of beating up opposition pitchers, they've now scored only one run in consecutive games. Thanks to Lester, that was good enough to come out of those two games with a split.
- Scoring one run per game is not a good long-term strategy.
- Quote of the week: "Are you trying to give me a heart attack?"
- Bobby Valentine to Alfredo Aceves, after Aceves gave up a long fly ball with one man on and a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in the first game in Minnesota
- Red Sox Player of the Week - There were some good performances from the offense, but nothing overpowering. What happened instead was they had very good individual games by players scattered throughout the lineups, and not much in the way of offensive sinkholes. The best performance on a per-out basis (for a player with more than 8 at-bats) was David Ortiz, but from a counting stats perspective, it was Mike Aviles. Given the positional difference, I'm going with Aviles this week.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A lot of candidates here. Alfredo Aceves saved three games with three scoreless performances. Five different relievers pitched multiple innings without allowing a run. Daniel Bard had an effective relief performance and a very good start. But, despite the fact that his first of two wins on the week was a mediocre performance, I'm going to go with Jon Lester, whose stellar performance on Saturday resulted in a win in a game in which they scored only one run.
#26
Mike LansWho
- Rooters Hall of Fame
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- Group: Rooters Supporter
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Posted 30 April 2012 - 09:06 AM
Lyford, on 30 April 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
- Red Sox Player of the Week - There were some good performances from the offense, but nothing overpowering. What happened instead was they had very good individual games by players scattered throughout the lineups, and not much in the way of offensive sinkholes. The best performance on a per-out basis (for a player with more than 8 at-bats) was David Ortiz, but from a counting stats perspective, it was Mike Aviles. Given the positional difference, I'm going with Aviles this week.
Good call here. I was actually getting ready to make the case for Aviles if you picked somebody else. Regardless, here is what Aviles has done in the last 7 days:
8 Hits, 5 for extra bases
7 runs scored, 5 batted in
2 HRs, 1 stolen base
He may not be making people forget about Jacoby Ellsbury, but he's doing a great job of filling the hole at the top of the order.
#27
Lyford
- A Greenville
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- Group: Royal Rooters
- Posts: 55
- Joined: 01-December 03
Posted 07 May 2012 - 07:22 AM
Season To Date:
Past Week:
.
Maybe there will be a week during the 2012 season in which the Red Sox will play so-so baseball, win a few, lose a couple, play baseball that one might think of as a representative sample of the season as a whole. One week into May, that has not happened yet.
- It's hard to say what was the worst part of Sunday's debacle: another horrible Buchholz outing, the fact that they couldn't score in two innings against Baltimore's 1st baseman, that they lost with a backup outfielder on the mound, that they had the winning run thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the 16th... But there was one (and only one) positive to be drawn, and that was this: I spent the entire afternoon at a wedding and saw not a single pitch. I have not even seen "highlights" of the game, nor do I have any desire to.
- I'm always irritated by the whole "lies, damn lies and statistics" attitude that many have, but it's important to understand exactly what the statistics are saying. For example, the table above says that the Red Sox offense scored 4.667 runs per game this week, 4th best in the AL, and much better than the pitching, which was 14th. And that's true. But it's based on 6 games, and the offense, which played 13 and 17 inning games, actually used 7.2 games worth of outs. When you adjust for that, the runs/game drops to 3.87, about on a par with the Angels, who were 9th. The pitchers pitched 7.3 games worth of outs, and adjusting for that, the runs allowed per game drops to 5.18, or close to the teams which finished 9th. So, at first glance, it appears that the pitching was much worse than the offense this week. Adjusted, they were both pretty similarly lousy.
- Not only was the offense bad on the whole, the badness was masked even further by the fact that they scored 11 runs in the first game. In the last five games, they scored only 3.4 runs/game, and, adjusting again for innings, that drops further to 2.35. That is a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad offensive performance, which now, with the exception of Monday's 11-run outburst, runs to 8 games.
- At one point last season, I made a comment that "it's tough to overpay a player like Adrian Gonzalez." Well, they're overpaying him this year. I don't know who stole the real Adrian Gonzalez and replaced him with this inferior substitue (.264/.328/.373/.701, capped off with an 0-8 performance in a 17 inning game), but it would be nice if he were returned...
- Red Sox Player of the Week - The most productive player on a per-out basis was Will Middlebrooks, whose Major League debut has been auspicious thus far (other than, you know, not ever having played in a Major League game that his team won.) But he only played in three games. So the player of the week is Dustin Pedroia (.321/.424/.464/.889). And yes, that's a good but not great week. Which is indicative of how bad the offense was - when that's the best performance of a week, that's not a good sign.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Well, the best starter was mediocre, and the rest of them were bad. There were obviously no save opportunities. There were several decent-to-good relief performances, but, given the way the games turned out, none were critical or special. (Frankly, an earlier bad performance yesterday would have saved several a lot of pain and trouble.) But it's a good week to recognize Alfredo Aceves, who pitched 5 2/3 innings in three scoreless appearances, and struck out 11.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 5.455 (3) 3.045 (1) 0.744 (1) 16 16 0 New York 5.619 (1) 4.810 (11) 0.571 (2) 12 12 0 Baltimore 4.318 (7) 3.727 (3) 0.567 (3) 12 14 2 Toronto 4.727 (4) 4.182 (6) 0.556 (4) 12 12 0 Tampa Bay 4.682 (5) 4.364 (8) 0.532 (5) 12 14 2 Chicago 3.864 (12) 3.727 (3) 0.516 (6) 11 11 0 Cleveland 4.500 (6) 4.550 (9) 0.495 (7) 10 11 1 Boston 5.524 (2) 5.619 (13) 0.492 (8) 10 10 0 Seattle 4.000 (9) 4.348 (7) 0.462 (9) 11 11 0 Detroit 4.273 (8) 4.727 (10) 0.454 (10) 10 11 1 Los Angeles 3.455 (13) 4.136 (5) 0.418 (11) 9 7 -2 Oakland 2.913 (14) 3.522 (2) 0.414 (12) 10 11 1 Kansas City 3.952 (11) 4.857 (12) 0.407 (13) 9 6 -3 Minnesota 4.000 (9) 5.714 (14) 0.342 (14) 7 6 -1 Top 5 projections (using current winning %) Texas 118 44 Baltimore 103 59 Tampa Bay 103 59 New York 93 69 Cleveland 89 73 Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %) Texas 120 42 Baltimore 93 69 New York 92 70 Toronto 90 72 Tampa Bay 89 73
Past Week:
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Baltimore 6.000 (1) 2.500 (2) 0.832 (1) 5 5 0 Los Angeles 3.857 (9) 2.429 (1) 0.700 (2) 5 5 0 Detroit 4.200 (8) 2.800 (3) 0.677 (3) 3 3 0 Toronto 4.857 (3) 3.714 (6) 0.620 (4) 4 4 0 Tampa Bay 4.286 (7) 3.571 (5) 0.583 (5) 4 5 1 Seattle 3.429 (12) 2.857 (4) 0.583 (6) 4 2 -2 Cleveland 4.500 (5) 4.167 (8) 0.535 (7) 3 4 1 Oakland 5.000 (2) 5.167 (10) 0.485 (8) 3 4 1 Chicago 3.833 (10) 4.167 (8) 0.462 (9) 3 2 -1 New York 3.286 (13) 4.000 (7) 0.411 (10) 3 3 0 Texas 4.333 (6) 5.333 (13) 0.406 (11) 2 2 0 Boston 4.667 (4) 6.333 (14) 0.364 (12) 2 1 -1 Kansas City 3.500 (11) 5.167 (10) 0.329 (13) 2 3 1 Minnesota 1.333 (14) 5.167 (10) 0.077 (14) 0 1 1
.
Maybe there will be a week during the 2012 season in which the Red Sox will play so-so baseball, win a few, lose a couple, play baseball that one might think of as a representative sample of the season as a whole. One week into May, that has not happened yet.
- It's hard to say what was the worst part of Sunday's debacle: another horrible Buchholz outing, the fact that they couldn't score in two innings against Baltimore's 1st baseman, that they lost with a backup outfielder on the mound, that they had the winning run thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the 16th... But there was one (and only one) positive to be drawn, and that was this: I spent the entire afternoon at a wedding and saw not a single pitch. I have not even seen "highlights" of the game, nor do I have any desire to.
- I'm always irritated by the whole "lies, damn lies and statistics" attitude that many have, but it's important to understand exactly what the statistics are saying. For example, the table above says that the Red Sox offense scored 4.667 runs per game this week, 4th best in the AL, and much better than the pitching, which was 14th. And that's true. But it's based on 6 games, and the offense, which played 13 and 17 inning games, actually used 7.2 games worth of outs. When you adjust for that, the runs/game drops to 3.87, about on a par with the Angels, who were 9th. The pitchers pitched 7.3 games worth of outs, and adjusting for that, the runs allowed per game drops to 5.18, or close to the teams which finished 9th. So, at first glance, it appears that the pitching was much worse than the offense this week. Adjusted, they were both pretty similarly lousy.
- Not only was the offense bad on the whole, the badness was masked even further by the fact that they scored 11 runs in the first game. In the last five games, they scored only 3.4 runs/game, and, adjusting again for innings, that drops further to 2.35. That is a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad offensive performance, which now, with the exception of Monday's 11-run outburst, runs to 8 games.
- At one point last season, I made a comment that "it's tough to overpay a player like Adrian Gonzalez." Well, they're overpaying him this year. I don't know who stole the real Adrian Gonzalez and replaced him with this inferior substitue (.264/.328/.373/.701, capped off with an 0-8 performance in a 17 inning game), but it would be nice if he were returned...
- Red Sox Player of the Week - The most productive player on a per-out basis was Will Middlebrooks, whose Major League debut has been auspicious thus far (other than, you know, not ever having played in a Major League game that his team won.) But he only played in three games. So the player of the week is Dustin Pedroia (.321/.424/.464/.889). And yes, that's a good but not great week. Which is indicative of how bad the offense was - when that's the best performance of a week, that's not a good sign.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Well, the best starter was mediocre, and the rest of them were bad. There were obviously no save opportunities. There were several decent-to-good relief performances, but, given the way the games turned out, none were critical or special. (Frankly, an earlier bad performance yesterday would have saved several a lot of pain and trouble.) But it's a good week to recognize Alfredo Aceves, who pitched 5 2/3 innings in three scoreless appearances, and struck out 11.
#28
BigSlick
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Posted 07 May 2012 - 07:28 AM
Lyford, on 07 May 2012 - 07:22 AM, said:
But there was one (and only one) positive to be drawn, and that was this: I spent the entire afternoon at a wedding and saw not a single pitch. I have not even seen "highlights" of the game, nor do I have any desire to.
Like you, I was out all day and didn't see any of the game. There was one bright spot though. Other than McDonald, who doesn't count, the bullpen was very impressive.
#30
Lyford
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Posted 07 May 2012 - 03:45 PM
Cudahy, on 07 May 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:
It's hard to figure a feast or famine offense into averages.
I suppose. Although I've done (or seen) a good study of that. More interesting to me right now, though, is why the Red Sox would be a "feast or famine" offense. I would expect (though again, it's not something I've ever looked carefully at) that, all else being equal, you'd expect great variance with a low-OBP, high-SLG offense. But the Red Sox aren't. Yes, they're a high-SLG, but they're also a high-OBP offense. (Well, relatively, anyway. Their currently fifth in the AL in OBP.)
I think that there are some interesting questions there, and wish I had the time to look at it...
#31
rominer
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Posted 07 May 2012 - 04:01 PM
Lyford, on 07 May 2012 - 07:22 AM, said:
I spent the entire afternoon at a wedding and saw not a single pitch.
For all the pitches that were thrown, there weren't many that were worth seeing.
But Dustin Pedroia made a couple of plays in extra innings that could have been game savers if the rest of the team had allowed them to be.
#32
Lyford
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 08:34 AM
Season To Date:
Past Week:
.
If I'm happy with this week's performance, it's not because 4-3 is a great week; it's just that it's so much better than most of the weeks that they've had...
- Recipe for Pythagorean underperformance? Win big, lose close.
- The 2012 Red Sox, at 15-19, are now one game behind their 2011 counterparts, who beat Minnesota on May 8 to run their record to 16-18. The pitching has been worse, as they've allowed almost a run more per game (33 runs through 34 games) but the offense has been better as they've scored 44 more runs. So their Pythagorean performance has actually been better, despite the worse record, at .505 vs. .472.
- It's nice to see Daniel Nava getting another shot. Rumor has it that he had attitude and approach issues when he had his first trip to the show, and hopefully he's got those issues figured out, because all he's ever done, everywhere, is hit. There's no reason that he can't have a decent Major League career if he's got his head screwed on straight. He certainly made the most of his playing time this week.
- The bullpen had a very good week. Had Albers thrown a double-play ball to Billy Butler on Tuesday night instead of a HR, it would have been an excellent week. In 22 innings over 20 appearances, they collectively allowed only 17 hits and 3 ER, a WHIP of 1.05 and an ERA of 1.23.
- The starters, on the other hand... I'm not in the least bit interested in Josh Beckett's golfing schedule, I'm really not. Booing him before the start because he went golfing last week is silly. Booing him because he can't get through three innings against Cleveland without giving up seven runs, on the other hand, is not.
- It's an overstatement to condemn the starters as a group, though, because, other than Beckett, they weren't bad. Lester's outing was short, but the defense played a big part in that. Doubront pitched effectivly twice, as did Bard. Buchholz wasn't great, but he was OK. On the whole, Beckett's one start was the only really bad pitching performance of the week, and produced the only game in which they were never really competitive.
- The cliche, when a younger player replaces an older one, is to say that the older one has been "Pipped," as Wally Pipp was replaced by Lou Gehrig. But the flashback I'm having this week is to 1982, when Carney Lansford's injury opened the door for Wade Boggs, and Boggs' performance demanded that the Sox keep him on the field. Will Middlebrooks in not Wade Boggs, but Kevin Youkilis isn't Carney Lansford, either. Lansford was just 25 and the Sox still traded him to make room for Boggs. Youlikis is 33, and very likely past his prime. I think pitchers will adjust to Middlebrooks, but if Youkilis were healthy tomorrow, I think I'd still want to see Middlebrooks playing to find out.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - First, we need to mention Daniel Nava (.600/.750/1.000/1.750), who has been to the plate 16 times since his recall, and reached safely in 12 of those trips, with six hits, four walks, and two HBP. Adrian Gonzalez (.407/.484/.667/1.151) had an excellent week (finally [and it would be nice to see him hitting the occasional HR]). But the player of the week goes to Dustin Pedroia (.393/.455/.750/1.205)
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - In winning both of his starts, Felix Doubront allowed four earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, for 2.92 ERA, and the Pitcher of the Week award.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/14/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 5.914 (1) 3.629 (1) 0.710 (1) 25 23 -2 Toronto 4.657 (4) 4.029 (5) 0.566 (2) 20 19 -1 New York 4.882 (3) 4.382 (10) 0.549 (3) 19 19 0 Baltimore 4.657 (4) 4.229 (7) 0.544 (4) 19 22 3 Tampa Bay 4.514 (6) 4.257 (8) 0.527 (5) 18 21 3 Boston 5.529 (2) 5.471 (14) 0.505 (6) 17 15 -2 Chicago 3.857 (10) 3.886 (2) 0.497 (7) 17 16 -1 Detroit 4.176 (8) 4.353 (9) 0.481 (8) 16 17 1 Seattle 3.750 (11) 3.972 (4) 0.474 (9) 17 16 -1 Oakland 3.629 (13) 3.943 (3) 0.462 (10) 16 18 2 Los Angeles 3.714 (12) 4.086 (6) 0.457 (11) 16 15 -1 Cleveland 4.324 (7) 4.794 (12) 0.453 (12) 15 18 3 Kansas City 4.030 (9) 4.758 (11) 0.425 (13) 14 13 -1 Minnesota 3.412 (14) 5.353 (13) 0.305 (14) 10 10 0 Top 5 projections (using current winning %) Texas 106 56 Baltimore 102 60 Tampa Bay 97 65 New York 91 71 Toronto 88 74 Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %) Texas 113 49 Toronto 91 71 Baltimore 91 71 New York 89 73 Tampa Bay 88 74
Past Week:
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/14/2012 Team R/G (rank) RA/G (rank) Pyth (rank) proj w act w luck Texas 8.714 (1) 4.000 (4) 0.806 (1) 6 5 -1 Boston 6.286 (2) 4.286 (7) 0.668 (2) 5 4 -1 New York 4.167 (7) 3.333 (1) 0.601 (3) 4 4 0 Kansas City 4.833 (4) 4.000 (4) 0.586 (4) 4 4 0 Oakland 5.000 (3) 4.333 (9) 0.565 (5) 3 3 0 Toronto 4.167 (7) 3.833 (2) 0.538 (6) 3 3 0 Chicago 3.857 (10) 4.143 (6) 0.467 (7) 3 3 0 Detroit 3.857 (10) 4.286 (7) 0.452 (8) 3 3 0 Tampa Bay 4.167 (7) 4.667 (11) 0.448 (9) 3 2 -1 Seattle 3.167 (14) 3.833 (2) 0.413 (10) 2 3 1 Minnesota 3.429 (13) 4.429 (10) 0.385 (11) 3 3 0 Los Angeles 4.500 (6) 5.833 (12) 0.383 (12) 2 3 1 Cleveland 3.750 (12) 5.875 (13) 0.305 (13) 2 3 1 Baltimore 4.571 (5) 7.286 (14) 0.299 (14) 2 3 1
.
If I'm happy with this week's performance, it's not because 4-3 is a great week; it's just that it's so much better than most of the weeks that they've had...
- Recipe for Pythagorean underperformance? Win big, lose close.
- The 2012 Red Sox, at 15-19, are now one game behind their 2011 counterparts, who beat Minnesota on May 8 to run their record to 16-18. The pitching has been worse, as they've allowed almost a run more per game (33 runs through 34 games) but the offense has been better as they've scored 44 more runs. So their Pythagorean performance has actually been better, despite the worse record, at .505 vs. .472.
- It's nice to see Daniel Nava getting another shot. Rumor has it that he had attitude and approach issues when he had his first trip to the show, and hopefully he's got those issues figured out, because all he's ever done, everywhere, is hit. There's no reason that he can't have a decent Major League career if he's got his head screwed on straight. He certainly made the most of his playing time this week.
- The bullpen had a very good week. Had Albers thrown a double-play ball to Billy Butler on Tuesday night instead of a HR, it would have been an excellent week. In 22 innings over 20 appearances, they collectively allowed only 17 hits and 3 ER, a WHIP of 1.05 and an ERA of 1.23.
- The starters, on the other hand... I'm not in the least bit interested in Josh Beckett's golfing schedule, I'm really not. Booing him before the start because he went golfing last week is silly. Booing him because he can't get through three innings against Cleveland without giving up seven runs, on the other hand, is not.
- It's an overstatement to condemn the starters as a group, though, because, other than Beckett, they weren't bad. Lester's outing was short, but the defense played a big part in that. Doubront pitched effectivly twice, as did Bard. Buchholz wasn't great, but he was OK. On the whole, Beckett's one start was the only really bad pitching performance of the week, and produced the only game in which they were never really competitive.
- The cliche, when a younger player replaces an older one, is to say that the older one has been "Pipped," as Wally Pipp was replaced by Lou Gehrig. But the flashback I'm having this week is to 1982, when Carney Lansford's injury opened the door for Wade Boggs, and Boggs' performance demanded that the Sox keep him on the field. Will Middlebrooks in not Wade Boggs, but Kevin Youkilis isn't Carney Lansford, either. Lansford was just 25 and the Sox still traded him to make room for Boggs. Youlikis is 33, and very likely past his prime. I think pitchers will adjust to Middlebrooks, but if Youkilis were healthy tomorrow, I think I'd still want to see Middlebrooks playing to find out.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - First, we need to mention Daniel Nava (.600/.750/1.000/1.750), who has been to the plate 16 times since his recall, and reached safely in 12 of those trips, with six hits, four walks, and two HBP. Adrian Gonzalez (.407/.484/.667/1.151) had an excellent week (finally [and it would be nice to see him hitting the occasional HR]). But the player of the week goes to Dustin Pedroia (.393/.455/.750/1.205)
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - In winning both of his starts, Felix Doubront allowed four earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, for 2.92 ERA, and the Pitcher of the Week award.
#33
BigSlick
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 11:24 AM
First of all, thanks for another great post, it was more fun reading it this week than most (through no fault of your own of course).
However, you made one comment that I disagree with...
I think you missed the point. In 99.99% of situations, nobody cares if a pitcher goes golfing on an off day. As proof of that I offer that nobody cared that Buchholz was golfing with him. He certainly is not having the best of seasons either so if it was just golfing that people were upset about, they'd be upset at him too.
The issue is the fact that it had already been announced that he was going to miss his next start because of a back injury and then decided he was healthy enough to play a sport that can be hard on your back, but yet he still couldn't pitch. That's why he got boo'd.
However, you made one comment that I disagree with...
Lyford, on 14 May 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:
I'm not in the least bit interested in Josh Beckett's golfing schedule, I'm really not. Booing him before the start because he went golfing last week is silly.
I think you missed the point. In 99.99% of situations, nobody cares if a pitcher goes golfing on an off day. As proof of that I offer that nobody cared that Buchholz was golfing with him. He certainly is not having the best of seasons either so if it was just golfing that people were upset about, they'd be upset at him too.
The issue is the fact that it had already been announced that he was going to miss his next start because of a back injury and then decided he was healthy enough to play a sport that can be hard on your back, but yet he still couldn't pitch. That's why he got boo'd.
#36
Lyford
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 12:28 PM
BigSlick, on 14 May 2012 - 11:24 AM, said:
The issue is the fact that it had already been announced that he was going to miss his next start because of a back injury and then decided he was healthy enough to play a sport that can be hard on your back, but yet he still couldn't pitch. That's why he got boo'd.
I do understand that. But I still don't care. I don't think that he's likely to injure himself golfing, whether his lat is sore or not, nor does the fact that he went golfing five days before his next start say anything about whether he could have pitched, or pitched effectively, nor is there any evidence that he "begged out" of a start, nor did the golf cause him to miss a start that he was already scheduled not to make. So I just don't care.
What I do care about is that he pitched dreadfully the next time out, but there's no evidence whatsoever to relate that to the golf. All of which makes the golf irrelevant as far as I'm concerned...
#37
Mike LansWho
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 12:30 PM
The Beckett golf thing is so overblown. I honestly don't think he was injured at all. I think they wanted to sit him for a turn so they could resolve the Aaron Cook problem, at least for another week. There was already talk of a sore lat, so who better to skip in the rotation? It still was pretty bad judgement, but the skipped start wasn't Beckett's choice.
#38
Hail Cesar
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 12:56 PM
Mike LansWho, on 14 May 2012 - 12:30 PM, said:
The Beckett golf thing is so overblown. I honestly don't think he was injured at all.
I too have been getting the feeling that there really was no Beckett injury. Why not just come out and be honest about it by saying, "We've gotta bring up Aaron Cook or we're going to lose him, so, Beckett's pitch count was a little high in his last start and he had a sore lat. There are no issues with Beckett's lat, but just some soreness, so we're gonna skip his start to give him some extra rest. Beckett could pitch on Saturday, but we think things will work better this way". Then, when Beckett goes golfing, it's less of an issue. Here, it just straight blew up on them.
#40
Mike LansWho
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Posted 14 May 2012 - 03:33 PM
Cudahy, on 14 May 2012 - 02:28 PM, said:
For the 9th time in 34 games the Sox scored 10 runs or more. Wonder if we've ever done that before?
Last season they didn't have a 10 runs scored game until May 20th. They proceeded to have 8 more in a 28-game span.