[Mike LansWho]

Wanted to see if we could get some trade deadline discussion going since this is usually the busiest time of year for a baseball board.

Normally we talk about which players would be nice additions to the Red Sox for a playoff run and who would go in return. This year I believe that there is a discussion to be had about the Red Sox being sellers. With a little over 60 games left they are 8 games out of the division and 5 out of the wild card. Also, there are a small handful of teams outside of the AL East that could make the wild card that much harder to obtain. The trade market is getting much tougher since it seems that there are more teams than usual that could be buyers.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have a number of key players coming back from injuries that would be like acquisitions themselves. They've done a decent job staying afloat all year considering that they were only at 100% health-wise for like a week or two in early April. Do the Red Sox stand pat and see if these re-activations are enough to make up the 5-8 games? Do they pick up another player (position or bullpen) to compliment the roster??

Another thing to consider is the fact that the Red Sox have some players this year that are signed to short money. Could the Red Sox get a haul for a guy like Adrian Beltre (who might not be back next year)? Victor Martinez, Mike Cameron? Is now the time to part ways with Papelbon? Should the Red Sox jettison some of these names to bring in chips to pull off some off-season moves??

Just wondering what the general feeling is out there. I hope this can stir up some decent discussion as well.

[Manny's PS2]

I think they re-sign Victor and try to resign Beltre for something "normal" like 3-35 or something similar. I'm pretty sure if he continues to hit like he is, his value will go up.

I think they can sell high on Papelbon and haul a few young, good relievers, they may be "adding by subtracting". If they get two ML ready relievers (I know, this scenario does not exist) for Papelbon, plus a prospect, it might be worth it - but selling high is the key. They need to be blown away. Bard is obviously the closer of the future.

I don't think they should be sellers. I think when all return they will right the ship and challenge for a spot, even if they fall short.

I keep thinking Ellsbury, Lowrie and Dubront for Gonzalez. But, the stupid Padres feel like winning.

[BigSlick]

In spite of their current place in the standings, I don't think they should be sellers. As you stated, the players they have returning soon will provide the same boost that a trade would.

The Sox still have 7 games left with NY and 6 with Tampa. Of possibly even more importance is the fact that Tampa and the Yankees have 10 games left against each other. If either team goes 8-2 in those games it will be a huge help to the Sox playoff chances.

I could see Lowell going to a team that needs a bat, hopefully for usefull reliever, but other than that I get the feeling it will be a pretty quiet deadline for the Sox.

[Mike LansWho]

BigSlick, on 26 July 2010 - 10:34 AM, said:

I could see Lowell going to a team that needs a bat, hopefully for usefull reliever, but other than that I get the feeling it will be a pretty quiet deadline for the Sox.

Why would a team in playoff contention get rid of a useful reliever for Mike Lowell??

Manny, on 26 July 2010 - 10:19 AM, said:

I think they re-sign Victor and try to resign Beltre

<snip>

I keep thinking Ellsbury, Lowrie and Dubront for Gonzalez. But, the stupid Padres feel like winning.

See, this is why it could be plausible for the Red Sox to be sellers. They could load up on some prospects and makes some off-season deals. Then they wouldn't need to re-sign Victor or Beltre.

[BigSlick]

Mike LansWho, on 26 July 2010 - 10:47 AM, said:

Why would a team in playoff contention get rid of a useful reliever for Mike Lowell??

Maybe because the Tigers just lost their 3rd baseman? Obviously we wouldn't get Zumaya, Valverde or Coke, but it's worth talking to them.

[Mike LansWho]

BigSlick, on 26 July 2010 - 10:55 AM, said:

Maybe because the Tigers just lost their 3rd baseman? Obviously we wouldn't get Zumaya, Valverde or Coke, but it's worth talking to them.

Touche, asshole.

[Manny's PS2]

Zumaya is out for the year, maybe career, so I bet we could trade his corpse for Lowell's.

[BigSlick]

Manny, on 26 July 2010 - 11:37 AM, said:

Zumaya is out for the year, maybe career, so I bet we could trade his corpse for Lowell's.

Shit! I knew that and forgot. And here I was all happy with myself for making a baseball point that wasn't in a game tread. FML.

[Manny's PS2]

Well, it is a name of a pitcher, so in that regard, you didn't totally look like an asshole, despite being one.

[rominer]

Manny, on 26 July 2010 - 12:37 PM, said:

Well, it is a name of a pitcher, so in that regard, you didn't totally look like an asshole, despite being one.

What kind of logic is that?

Dave Dravecky is the name of a pitcher, but he would have totally looked like an asshole if he said that.

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 26 July 2010 - 12:58 PM, said:

What kind of logic is that?

Dave Dravecky is the name of a pitcher, but he would have totally looked like an asshole if he said that.

Hey now, At least I named a pitcher that didn't have his pitching arm amputated. Asshole.

[acr]

We need some bullpen help desperately. Another OF would be nice too, though with Ellsbury eventually coming back, it might be unnecessary(thoguh I'm not too high on Jacoby to begin with). I still like Jayson Werth, even if he's been terrible since May.

[rominer]

Oh, right, baseball:

I think this week leading up to the deadline is significant. How does the lineup look with Victor Martinez bumping Kevin Cash's .380 OPS out of its black hole? How does Josh Beckett look in his second go-round – against a real baseball team? Is John Lackey settling into one of his traditional 2nd half grooves, or did he just have a couple of good games against familiar opponents? How close is Pedroia? Or, dare I say it, Ellsbury?

As the week wears on, have they chipped a game or two off of their 5-game Wild Card deficit, or are they even further out?

A legitimate offer for Lowell gets him, but otherwise...I definitely don't see the Sox being sellers, it's just a question of whether or not they'll be buyers. Obviously bullpen is the biggest need – it's the one weakness that remains even if/when the team gets healthy. But it's a spot where you're going to have to overpay to get something on July 31, and that something could turn out to be Eric Gagne or Scott Sauerbeck, or at any rate someone who's not a whole lot better than what you can get for half the price in a waiver wire deal. Maybe it's worth it...but not if the playoffs are a longshot.

[Mike LansWho]

acr, on 26 July 2010 - 01:09 PM, said:

We need some bullpen help desperately. Another OF would be nice too, though with Ellsbury eventually coming back, it might be unnecessary(thoguh I'm not too high on Jacoby to begin with). I still like Jayson Werth, even if he's been terrible since May.

Excluding Ellsbury (who, btw, very well may be back later this week) the Red Sox have Drew, Cameron, Hermida, McDonald and Hall for the OF. The Red Sox are 2nd in the league in Runs scored. Why give up anything for an outfield bat??

[Manny's PS2]

I agree - no need for OF bat or catcher, unless one can be had for nothing (read: Lowell).
They obviously need a BP arm. Will it come from Pawtucket or via a half assed trade just before the deadline. There's no reliever available that digs into the sox system to get a Kelly, Kalish, Iglesias, Anderson (for that matter!)...But I can't help but think Dubront and Lowrie can be had for a decent Loogy. I don't thinnk the Front Office crumbles to fan opinion, but the bullpen is obviously broken at this point. Pretty sure Atchson in Option #3 right now behind Bard and Paps.
Scott Downs is good, but he's 34 and will cost a fortune in prospects. I'd rather see Bowden/Richardson/Coello/Mia Hamm/rominer get a try than barf up the top prospects in the organization for a few unknown pics and a good bullpen guy for two months.

[rominer]

Manny, on 26 July 2010 - 02:14 PM, said:

Scott Downs is good, but he's 34 and will cost a fortune in prospects. I'd rather see Bowden/Richardson/Coello/Mia Hamm/rominer get a try than barf up the top prospects in the organization for a few unknown pics and a good bullpen guy for two months.

I probably couldn't get anybody out. But you could definitely count on me to throw the Gatorade cooler and punch a wall after I didn't get anyone out.

Assuming I didn't get Bryce Floried first.

[Manny's PS2]

Could you really lift the gatorade cooler or make a halfassed gesture as if you're going to?

Seriously, I hope they don't get Gagne'd. That was brutal.

I don't see any major league talent leaving the sox this year for a trade. Yes they need offense, but Martinez tonight, Pedroia in a few weeks, Ellsbury when his felmale genatalia feels better...
Not gonna be too worried about the offense. Definitely worried about the bullpen, or lack thereof. Let's face it, DelCarmen, Okajima, Ramirez - have they been effective at all for the last two months? I don't want to see those guys anymore. Instant indegestion.

[rominer]

Manny, on 26 July 2010 - 02:32 PM, said:

Could you really lift the gatorade cooler or make a halfassed gesture as if you're going to?

I'm assuming that by the time they brought me into the game, people would have drank some of the Gatorade already.

[Manny's PS2]

Still, you would have given up less singles in a row than Okajima yesterday. Even if you did give up five hits in a row, I guarantee your postgame presser would be better.

I hope they get a BP arm for not a lot, and turn this thing around, or lose every game left on the schedule.

[JMDurron]

I think this will be an extremely tame trade deadline for the Sox. The team is too good when healthy to be sold off, and most of the sell-able assets (Beltre, Martinez, Papelbon) are necessary pieces for the 2011 team to be competitive. People can whine about Papelbon not being the closer he used to be all they want, but going from 2 good bullpen arms to 1 good bullpen arm is a bad idea, even if you "upgrade" the closer spot from Papelbon to Bard. If you think that the team can trade away Beltre and Martinez, I'd suggest that you take a look at the absolute crap that is available at 3B and C this offseason. I think that the team will make a significant effort to retain both players, with an eye towards Martinez replacing Ortiz as the DH after the 2011 season. Cue the "... Youk to 3B Adrian Gonzalez is OURS!" posts.

At the same time, this team is too far out of the playoffs and still too injured to bother adding major pieces too. Giving up significant prospects for a short-term OFer like Werth or a top flight bullpen arm like Downs seems counterproductive when it is still reasonably unlikely for the Red Sox to make the playoffs, nevermind that Ellsbury should be back to round out the OF soon enough, and even "top" bullpen arms are such a crapshoot that we'd be as likely to end up with Eric Gagne 2 as a useful arm. I think the team should stand pat and wait to get healthy, and hope that some combination of AAA relivers and MLB guys figuring things out (Delcarmen or Atchison have to step up and take Okajima's spot on the depth chart for this to work, or Bowden needs to come back up and get the job done) fixes the bullpen.

This post has been edited by JMDurron: 27 July 2010 - 07:43 AM