Royal Rooters: Adrian Beltre - worth a long term deal? - Royal Rooters

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Adrian Beltre - worth a long term deal?
Should the Sox attempt to sign Beltre?

Poll: Keep 'em or let him go? (26 member(s) have cast votes)

Should the Sox attempt to sign Beltre Long term?

  1. Yes, duh he didn't get injured, hit a ton and plays a good 3rd base - sign at all costs, within reason (11 votes [42.31%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.31%

  2. No, too pricey after this year and there's dudes in the minors ready to pounce (2 votes [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  3. Only if he offers a hometown discount and not more than 4 years. (9 votes [34.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 34.62%

  4. I like applesauce! (4 votes [15.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.38%

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#1 User is offline  
Manny's PS2 

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 04:33 PM

I say sure, but with the idea that he is signed for 3 guaranteed, meaning not gonna happen.
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rominer 

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 06:46 PM

I voted for applesauce, because it's good and I haven't had it in a long time. But yes, of course they should at least try to make a deal happen.

The free agent crop at that position sucks for the next two years.

Jed Lowrie is a nice player, but not at 3B. Kevin Youkilis is an awesome player who, by the time the season is done, will have played in roughly as many games over the last four seasons as JD Drew, and as we all know, just about the only thing JD Drew has ever bought to this ballclub is back spasms. Youk is better off at first base. The Red Sox 3B prospects at such levels as "higher than single A" include Jorge ".569 OPS" Jimenez and Yamaico Navarro, who looks like he might not quite be ready to an every day Major Leaguer just yet.

Mike Lowell might retire, but only if he doesn't die first. Assuming that he isn't already dead.

Beltre is the best available option, even when he only hits .270 with 22 HR next year.
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Jack Hayden 

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Posted 09 September 2010 - 07:05 PM

View Postrominer, on 09 September 2010 - 06:46 PM, said:

I voted for applesauce, because it's good and I haven't had it in a long time. But yes, of course they should at least try to make a deal happen.

The free agent crop at that position sucks for the next two years.

Jed Lowrie is a nice player, but not at 3B. Kevin Youkilis is an awesome player who, by the time the season is done, will have played in roughly as many games over the last four seasons as JD Drew, and as we all know, just about the only thing JD Drew has ever bought to this ballclub is back spasms. Youk is better off at first base. The Red Sox 3B prospects at such levels as "higher than single A" include Jorge ".569 OPS" Jimenez and Yamaico Navarro, who looks like he might not quite be ready to an every day Major Leaguer just yet.

Mike Lowell might retire, but only if he doesn't die first. Assuming that he isn't already dead.

Beltre is the best available option, even when he only hits .270 with 22 HR next year.



Agreed with rom.
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Posted 09 September 2010 - 09:34 PM

View PostJack Hayden, on 09 September 2010 - 07:05 PM, said:

Agreed with rom.


Me too.

Who the hell else is going to play 3B? And why back off because of a 4th year? Henry is rich enough to cover an old player on the bench. I'd rather have Beltre there as the 2015 version of Mike Lowell than have two more "bridge years" with ****ing Lowrie at third because there aren't any corner IFs on the market worth crap, and a trade for an Adrian Gonzalez type will be difficult and costly. Just give Beltre what he wants, we've gotta keep up with the Yanks and Rays, not penny-pinch and let him walk over his value 4 years from now.
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Posted 09 September 2010 - 09:42 PM

I was really torn. I voted to resign him, but I like applesauce too.
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Posted 10 September 2010 - 07:21 AM

Well, you can't vote Beltre and Applesauce, that would be wrong.
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Posted 10 September 2010 - 10:09 AM

Something scares me a little about signing Beltre long term. He's always above average defensively, but he seems to be a guy who performs over his norms offensively during contract years. Last year was an exception as he was injured in Seattle. This year has been an audition for a big contract and I'm afraid that his numbers at the plate will fall after signing long term. Don't get me wrong, his numbers will still be decent, but he won't be that .900+ OPS guy that we're seeing this year. He might not be quite worth the money and years that he'll be getting. I think the Red Sox know this. They'll make an effort to sign him, but he'll ultimately sign for more money/years elsewhere.

That been said, although the 3B market is ugly, the 1B market isn't so bad. Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and Paul Konerko are attractive options. Derrek Lee and Lyle Overbay are a tier down from that. I can see the Sox moving Youkilis back to 3B and going after a Dunn or Pena type. I'm sure Youkilis wouldn't mind the switch.

Adrian Gonzalez will not be moved in the offseason. That needs to be understood right now. I will fight anybody who disagrees.
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Posted 10 September 2010 - 10:52 AM

I would let him go if we could sign Adam Dunn, but I don't expect it because Dunn has been available every frickin' year the last 5 years when we've needed a bat, and Theo's never made a run at him.
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Posted 10 September 2010 - 11:18 AM

I guess Lars is a year away and Youks may be better suited for 1st. They will have quite the log jam at firs in the next few years...A logjam worse than the Metamucil factory's bathroom.
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Posted 13 September 2010 - 08:00 AM

The 3B market is crap (just like after 2007), and as long as Beltre's hip isn't busted, he will earn ~half of his expected salary (say 15M for 4 years) with his defense even if his offensive output doesn't match this season. He's a perfect hitter for Fenway Park, and he seems to be benefiting from the Red Sox scouting department giving him a better idea of what pitches to look for from the opponents. The alternatives are either pure fantasy (Adrian Gonzalez), horrible fielders (Dunn), likely to age less gracefully than Beltre (Prince Fielder), already declining dangerously (Carlos Pena), or coming off a career year in a contract year in his mid 30s (Konerko). None of the realistic options keep Youk at his best defensive position, and few of them are certain to play as well in Fenway (or in the field, in Dunn's case) as Beltre. There are some cases where it is better to overpay than to get "fair market value" on an inferior option, so I believe that Beltre is worth signing to the 4/60M deal that I think he would accept from the Red Sox.
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Posted 13 September 2010 - 10:03 AM

JMD, I agree with most of what you have there, except for the part about Konerko. He may be in his mid 30's, but this is not a career year. This year has been standard Konkero production. His average and OPS might be inflated a little, but he still has the tools to hit 30+ doubles, ~30 HRs and ~100 RBI for the next few years. I agree that the defensive alignment of Beltre at 3B and Youkilis at 1B is ideal, but I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world to have Youkilis at 3B and Konerko at 1B. This point probably doesn't matter much anyway since it looks likely that Konerko would take a discount to stay in Chicago.

As I said, I think the Red Sox will make an effort to sign Beltre. I'm sure there will be no shortage of suitors for him, either.
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Posted 13 September 2010 - 11:28 AM

View PostMike LansWho, on 13 September 2010 - 10:03 AM, said:

As I said, I think the Red Sox will make an effort to sign Beltre. I'm sure there will be no shortage of suitors for him, either.


But I think the important thing here is that none of those suitors will be the team that already has $55 million committed to its corner infielders next season.

Someone could get desperate (the sub-.500 Angels), or just plain stupid (all the stupid teams out there, which is most of them), but there's nobody out there who can make a substantially better offer than the Red Sox unless the Sox just turn out not to be interested in making a substantial offer.

The Tigers do have just about their whole team coming off the books, but they're also a lot more than an Adrian Beltre away from being good again. And they play in a city that wouldn't even still exist if not for the federal government (although, their attendance has still been strong this year probably because watching a .500 team is about the least depressing thing to do in Detroit). They might be the most interesting team to watch in the FA market...but I'm not sure their best bet is to spend the $70 million that they have coming off the books all at once. Beltre is waaaaaay better than Brandon Inge, though.
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Posted 13 September 2010 - 03:05 PM

Detroit could certainly be players in the Beltre sweepstakes. They'll also be in on Cliff Lee. I wonder if they have enough coming off the books for both (especially if they get into a bidding war with the Yankees for Lee). If you had to choose one, which would it be? Can the Tigers go into 2011 with Jhonny Peralta as their starting third baseman at a fraction of the price that Beltre will command (admittedly also at a fraction of the production)??
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Posted 13 September 2010 - 04:03 PM

View PostMike LansWho, on 13 September 2010 - 03:05 PM, said:

Detroit could certainly be players in the Beltre sweepstakes. They'll also be in on Cliff Lee. I wonder if they have enough coming off the books for both (especially if they get into a bidding war with the Yankees for Lee).


Yes.

They have about $22 million coming off the books just in the form of players who don't even play for them.

Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Inge, and Johnny Damon are all free agents. That's another $27 million right there.

Magglio Ordonez is making $18 million this year. They have a $15 million option for next year. He's turning 57 years old in January. They should probably either move him to a rest home, or work out an extension for less money. Paying him $15 million to limp through 75 games next year would be stupid.

They could make Cliff Lee and Adrian Beltre the two highest paid players in baseball and still probably come in below this year's payroll. But they would also still probably be a second or third place team.

They can be players for Beltre for sure. I just think that unless they decide to be stupid with their money (which, of course, happens all the time in baseball), the Tigers and other potential players for Beltre aren't really in any better shape than the Red Sox. The Sox also have enough coming off the books to make Beltre (and Martinez) a healthy offer and still come in at a lower payroll in 2011 than 2010. It just comes down to whether anybody is going to dramatically overpay.
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Posted 14 September 2010 - 07:32 AM

The key for Detroit with Beltre is how willing Beltre will be to go back to another cavernous pitcher's ballpark after having his revival season in Fenway. I think there would have to be a significant disparity in contract offers (either a completely tepid lowball offer from Theo, or Detroit going wacky with a huge offer, like 5/80 wacky) to make Beltre go back to another potential Safeco experience.

MLW, as for Konerko...he's having the best offensive year of his career, by a healthy margin. That's the definition of the career year. His OPS is 65 points higher than it has been in his career, and it is the first time he's been over .900 OPS since 2006 (and only the third time ever, 2005 being the other time he managed that). I know OPS isn't as popular with the classic stat crowd as AVG/HR/RBI, but to put that number in perspective, Konerko's 2010 season compares to his next best season EVER the same way that JD Drew compares to Mike Cameron this season (63 points of OPS). Konerko's 2010 stat line is 322/399/598, and his career line is 281/356/499. The slugging in particular is a large jump relative to his career norms. This season is a major outlier for him, and there's been no change in his situation to explain the production spike, as opposed to Beltre's move from Safeco to Fenway and from a garbage lineup to a solid lineup.
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Posted 14 September 2010 - 10:15 AM

Hey, I'm all for using OPS as a good indicator of a player's offensive season. However, the data behind the OPS will always come back to the standard line. If there is a significant jump or dip in OPS, then logically there must be a jump or dip in something with the standard line (PA's and AB's with Hits, Walks, reaching on errors, etc.). Granted, there are about 20 games left in the season, but I'm not seeing a huge jump in his standard line. Like I said, his power numbers are pretty close to his career norms, his walk-rate is almost identical. The only real difference is that he's currently 10 hits above his career norm.

Let's assume that he will finish out the season going with his near 1.2 hits per game and there are 19 games left. Rounded up, that is 23 more hits for the rest of the season. He will finish the season with 183, or 33 hits above his 12-year average. That's 6 more hits than his best year in 2006. That is indeed significant. He'll get 4 more doubles and 5 more Home Runs, both above his 12-year average but not more than his best years. Let's say he walks 10 more times. That will put him 16 above the average. Also, significant.

Basically, when you look closer at the numbers, what you refer to as the "best offensive year of his career, by a healthy margin" actually boils down to ~14 extra singles and ~16 extra walks over the course of 651 plate appearances. I'll admit that being in a contract year probably does have something to do with the inflation there. I also think that there are other factors involved. Being in a pennant race for a good chunk of the season could be one of those factors. One thing I'm fairly certain about... there's no real reason to assume that his numbers will drop dramatically over the next couple years.

Again, this point is probably wasted by the fact that he'll return to the White Sox next year for a discount.
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Posted 24 September 2010 - 10:12 AM

I'm a bit torn on this, really. I was one of the many rambling over at SoSH against signing Beltre. I was convinced that his production would increase to roughly an .800OPS with park factors adjusted, yet now he's suddenly an AL MVP. Chances are we will have to re-sign him because the market is very thin. If anything he's at least a great defender, though if the contract is 4/$60M then I'm not sure I'd pay that. I would go 3/$40M tops, he's had too many mediocre years in Seattle to convince me that he's now a .320+/.360+ hitter. Especially with his OBP - it has never been that high for him, not even in his 2004 year with LA. Could it just be that park factors + better lineup + coaching = improvement? I certainly hope so! I've always liked Beltre (minus his reaction to the head-patting).
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Posted 27 September 2010 - 07:39 AM

View PostSantoshalper, on 24 September 2010 - 10:12 AM, said:

I'm a bit torn on this, really. I was one of the many rambling over at SoSH against signing Beltre. I was convinced that his production would increase to roughly an .800OPS with park factors adjusted, yet now he's suddenly an AL MVP. Chances are we will have to re-sign him because the market is very thin. If anything he's at least a great defender, though if the contract is 4/$60M then I'm not sure I'd pay that. I would go 3/$40M tops, he's had too many mediocre years in Seattle to convince me that he's now a .320+/.360+ hitter. Especially with his OBP - it has never been that high for him, not even in his 2004 year with LA. Could it just be that park factors + better lineup + coaching = improvement? I certainly hope so! I've always liked Beltre (minus his reaction to the head-patting).


I think the answer to your bolded question is "yes." That said, we don't know how much improvement really happened, since it is most likely combined with some fortunate luck on balls in play and just the typical year-to-year variation among hitters. Even if his real baseline is now 290/341/496 (career road numbers, since he played in two pitchers parks for his whole career until 2010, I think that's a fair number to go with) instead of 319/365/552, I think he's worth signing to a 3-4 year deal. I know we were just burned by Mike Lowell in the "signing players over 30 to long-term deals" sweepstakes, but hip injuries like Lowell's are not all that common, and Beltre will only be 32 this coming season. He has only played less than 120 games once since 1998 (rookie year), and I don't think it would be fair to bust his balls too much over what happened in 2009. He's proven he can play well in Boston (particularly after he got used to the Fenway IF in April, that was an ugly start, but he has improved since then), he's a defensive stud, he's not clearly in the "his career is almost over" age bracket (even if he is leaving his peak years), and the alternatives are either crap or fan fantasies (reasonable people can disagree on this point). With all of those factors put together, I think he's worth keeping even if he goes to 3/45 or 4/60. Even if you are a hardcore "Lars in 2012!" believer, Lars can DH or play 1B with Youk at DH, so there isn't necessarily anyone pushing to be the starting 3B from within the organization.
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Posted 27 September 2010 - 08:25 AM

Also, this year's apple crop is late, and the sauce is suffering.

I wonder what it will take to sign him for four years. I'm going with 4-55, with free appelsauce for life worked into the contract.
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Posted 06 October 2010 - 01:58 PM

I think that the sox will steer clear from Beltre and let him go,I think that Youkilus will shift back to 3rd and the sox will sign a 1st baseman.
Or maybe make a play for a first baseman..
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