[Mike LansWho]

Hail Cesar, on 07 December 2010 - 02:39 PM, said:

Left field is not as easy as it looks. Good fielders should be able to field balls off the wall and hold players to singles rather than the ball going off the wall and the runner ending up a second, or worse, third. Granted, who knows what the ball might ricochet off of on the wall, but I still think a good fielder will be able to hold the runner.

See, this is where there is a difference in fielding that nobody really talks about. You can't just say that Mike Cameron is a good defensive outfielder, therefore he will be a good leftfielder in Fenway. You don't necessarily have to be a great defender. You just have to learn how to play the wall and the corner. Heck, even Manny learned the ricochets to an extent.

I really don't mind Cameron being the everyday LF in 2010. I think that he is a great defender and can still knock in some runs. The problem I have is that he's only around for one more year and our current DH is only signed for one more year. I think it makes some sense to sign a guy like Ordonez now to play some OF this season and then take over as the everyday DH in 2011.

Quote

That and, at 36 years old, I don't see his numbers increasing. Sure, might be good for this year, but I don't see his numbers increasing much if at all over the next 2-3 years.

First of all, let's not forget that Mike Cameron will be 38. Who's offensive numbers are more likely to decrease due to age? Secondly, Ordonez has morphed from a power hitter in his prime to an outstanding contact hitter who has some power. He has changed his game almost in the same way that fireball pitchers can turn into finesse pitchers later in their careers. I don't think there is reason to believe that his offensive numbers will decline dramatically over the next 3 seasons.

[Hail Cesar]

Mike LansWho, on 07 December 2010 - 03:28 PM, said:

See, this is where there is a difference in fielding that nobody really talks about. You can't just say that Mike Cameron is a good defensive outfielder, therefore he will be a good leftfielder in Fenway. You don't necessarily have to be a great defender. You just have to learn how to play the wall and the corner. Heck, even Manny learned the ricochets to an extent.

I agree with you, but at the same time, I think it feeds into my argument... both a good defensive outfielder and an average or bad defensive outfield can learn the wall and the corner, but the good defender has a better chance of using his instincts and knowledge of the wall to his advantage over an average or bad defensive outfielder. Sure, Manny learned the wall, but Bay made Manny look like a little leaguer in less than half a season (maybe that's a bit too harsh). And Bay isn't even that great defensively. A lot of good defensive players have made use of that wall over the years. It's just whether you use the wall to your advantage.

Mike LansWho, on 07 December 2010 - 03:28 PM, said:

First of all, let's not forget that Mike Cameron will be 38. Who's offensive numbers are more likely to decrease due to age? Secondly, Ordonez has morphed from a power hitter in his prime to an outstanding contact hitter who has some power. He has changed his game almost in the same way that fireball pitchers can turn into finesse pitchers later in their careers. I don't think there is reason to believe that his offensive numbers will decline dramatically over the next 3 seasons.

I think that's kinda my point. Why sign a 36 year old outfielder when you've already got a 38 year old outfielder on your roster if the 36 year old is not a complete upgrade? I'd rather stick with the devil that I know rather than go after the devil that I don't. I don't see Ordonez as that much of an upgrade over Cameron this year to justify throwing $8-$10 million dollars at him.

[Bozzs]

acr, on 07 December 2010 - 02:50 PM, said:

The media people are reporting that we're interested in Carlos Beltran. Gammons even says Dice-K might be involved.

This could be a good fit. He's a plus defender in center(which pushes Ellsbury back to left where he belongs), and still good enough at the plate, averaging .500 slugging and slightly less than .400 OBP over the past few seasons. One would have to assume playing in CitiCavern caused his stats to drop a tad too.

When I first read the rumors, my reaction was "hell no, he's washed up and injury prone", but after looking at his numbers...you know, I think this will work.

Beltran no doubt could use a change of scenery neither the team or him like each other,problem is if they toss Dice K in there then there minus a starter.

[rominer]

Hail Cesar, on 07 December 2010 - 03:52 PM, said:

Sure, Manny learned the wall, but Bay made Manny look like a little leaguer in less than half a season (maybe that's a bit too harsh).

I'm not sure I even agree with this.

Manny learned to play shallow in LF at Fenway to take away singles, and he learned that his most effective weapon at holding doubles to singles off the wall wasn't to wind up and uncork the perfect throw, but simply to get the ball in quickly. Bay's signature defensive play was "give up on playable fly balls that he had to charge and let them fall in for singles."

Certainly any play that required range to the left or right, Bay was far superior to Manny by virtue of the fact that Bay could probably walk about as fast as Manny could run. On the road, I would guess (without looking up, or debating the merits of, the various defensive metrics) that Bay was the better left fielder, and probably by a sizable margin.

But I think Manny – as you'd expect from a player who spent 7 1/2 years in Boston to Bay's year and a half – was much better than Bay at positioning himself at Fenway. Much better.

That goes to your general point, though. You don't learn the nuances of Fenway overnight. But if you're talking about two players taking a crash course in playing the wall, I would expect the guy who is already a good defensive outfielder to have an easier time overcoming his lack of knowledge and experience with the specifics of Fenway. Neither one is a left fielder, though. Cameron's last game in left was in 2000. Ordonez has never played left field in the big leagues. I might rather take another crack at the Ellsbury in LF experiment, whether that means a Cameron/Kalish platoon in CF, an Ordonez/Drew platoon in RF, or whatever the case may be...

[Kid T]

acr, on 07 December 2010 - 02:50 PM, said:

The media people are reporting that we're interested in Carlos Beltran. Gammons even says Dice-K might be involved.

This could be a good fit. He's a plus defender in center(which pushes Ellsbury back to left where he belongs)

Dice-K has a no-trade clause. I watched Gammons interviewed on MLB Hot Stove, he stated that the teams had discussions with the Mets asking for Dice-K, but the Sox unwilling to move him. Also, I think given his knee surgery - would make more sense in LF (and leaving Ellsbury in CF).

Hail Cesar, on 07 December 2010 - 03:52 PM, said:

I agree with you, but at the same time, I think it feeds into my argument... both a good defensive outfielder and an average or bad defensive outfield can learn the wall and the corner, but the good defender has a better chance of using his instincts and knowledge of the wall to his advantage over an average or bad defensive outfielder.

This may be true, what isn't true is that the improved defense of Cameron/Ellsbury will provide greater impact than the incremental offense generated by an Ordonez/Ellsbury pairing. I'm a fan of bringing in Ordonez. He would make a nice platoon in LF/DH and provide a little more RH power.

[Hail Cesar]

Apparently the Red Sox asked the Nationals about Willingham. Nationals wanted Doubront in return. Nope, no thank you. Nationals are being pretty aggressive this offseason.

[JMDurron]

I really don't like these rumored acquisitions for the OF. Ordonez is a statue defensively compared to any of Ellsbury, Cameron, Kalish, or Drew, and he's not much more likely than Cameron or Drew to stay healthy at his age. Beltran brings a better glove, but is actually even more injury prone lately and might not be inclined to accept a part-time role as a lefty killer. I'm glad Theo seems to be holding the line on Matsuzaka, because trading starting pitching depth is almost always a bad idea (Arroyo-for-Pena in retrospect, even if Arroyo was only average in the AL East). The infield is already offensively awesome, and Ortiz should get the job done at DH whenever he decides to start playing this season (yes, I know slumps happen, that was a joke), but the defense has already been somewhat compromised in the IF with the loss of Beltre, shift of Youk, and presumed promotion of Lowrie to starter. I consider the Martinez-to-Salty shift and the current OF alignment to be an investment not just in run prevention in general, but in the starting rotation in particular. Guys like Lackey and Beckett who can't get as many Ks as they used to are going to need some solid gloves behind them to help them out, and after watching the Nava-McDonald-Patterson show out in the OF last season, I'd like to actually see some solid, rangey OFers play together for a change.

[Manny's PS2]

I think they are looking for RH power, something to counteract the Southpaw Yankees - I guess. Or to DH vs tough lefties. Ordonez on the cheap, sure. But if he's going to cost anything more than 4-5 million, sayonara. They'll find someone to fill that void, and I don;t think it's as much a need as it is a want.

[BigSlick]

Manny, on 08 December 2010 - 12:14 PM, said:

I don;t think it's as much a need as it is a want.

I agree. With the exception of a bullpen arm or two, I think this team as constructed is ready to compete for the division. Anything else they add is icing on the cake.

[Schilldro]

Why can't we sign Soriano/Downs/and Crawford with the $40 mill we cleared.. We should be able to do this for under $40 mill probably more like $34 mill.. 3/30 for Soriano...3/15.5 for Downs....6/125 for Crawford?

[Mike LansWho]

Schilldro, on 08 December 2010 - 12:51 PM, said:

Why can't we sign Soriano/Downs/and Crawford with the $40 mill we cleared.. We should be able to do this for under $40 mill probably more like $34 mill.. 3/30 for Soriano...3/15.5 for Downs....6/125 for Crawford?

Without getting into the nitty-gritty of how much these free agents will costs, it's important to understand that a good chunk of that $40M is already allocated towards raises for players under team control. Guys like Pedroia, Youkilis and Lester have raises built into their contracts while there are other guys like Papelbon who will get raises through arbitration. Not sure how much that eats into that $40M, but it does take something out.

Plus, I think the Red Sox are focused on relievers that won't cost them a draft pick.

Don't get me wrong, they do have money to spend. If they really had $40M to spend then theoretically they could afford both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. Realistically, they don't have that money and that won't happen. They could sign Crawford and a couple relievers, but I'm guessing that won't happen either.

[Kid T]

JMDurron, on 08 December 2010 - 08:23 AM, said:

I really don't like these rumored acquisitions for the OF. Ordonez is a statue defensively compared to any of Ellsbury, Cameron, Kalish, or Drew, and he's not much more likely than Cameron or Drew to stay healthy at his age. Beltran brings a better glove, but is actually even more injury prone lately and might not be inclined to accept a part-time role as a lefty killer. I'm glad Theo seems to be holding the line on Matsuzaka, because trading starting pitching depth is almost always a bad idea (Arroyo-for-Pena in retrospect, even if Arroyo was only average in the AL East). The infield is already offensively awesome, and Ortiz should get the job done at DH whenever he decides to start playing this season (yes, I know slumps happen, that was a joke), but the defense has already been somewhat compromised in the IF with the loss of Beltre, shift of Youk, and presumed promotion of Lowrie to starter. I consider the Martinez-to-Salty shift and the current OF alignment to be an investment not just in run prevention in general, but in the starting rotation in particular. Guys like Lackey and Beckett who can't get as many Ks as they used to are going to need some solid gloves behind them to help them out, and after watching the Nava-McDonald-Patterson show out in the OF last season, I'd like to actually see some solid, rangey OFers play together for a change.

A reasoned and thoughtful post...are you sure you belong here?

I don't disagree with Ordonez being an injury risk - but he's attractive for his RH bat at (presumably) a reasonable salary. Any defense is probably a plus. Additionally, I imagine he would simply be a platoon player (and relegating Cameron to platoon status as well), theoretically limiting their injury exposure.

As for your comments regarding run prevention, I don't think I understand. Beltre to Youkilis is definitely a downgrade at 3B, but AGon vs Youkilis and a full season of Pedey at 2B should result in an improvement. I think Lowrie is ticketed in the Billy Hall-esque super-utility role, but if he starts at SS he's probably on par with Scutaro defensively. Salty and VMart are probably a wash behind the plate. As for the OF, having Ellsbury and Cameron healthy provide a significant upgrade over the McDonald/Nava/Patterson experience.

[Kid T]

Schilldro, on 08 December 2010 - 12:51 PM, said:

Why can't we sign Soriano/Downs/and Crawford with the $40 mill we cleared.. We should be able to do this for under $40 mill probably more like $34 mill.. 3/30 for Soriano...3/15.5 for Downs....6/125 for Crawford?

Well, to start with: Benoit, who was Soriano's set-up man last year signed for 3/$16.5. Soriano probably will seek a closer role along with closer money. The Red Sox would have to overpay to get him and convince him to pitch in a middle relief role.

As for Crawford, the rumor is that he is seeking an 8 year deal. He's also the top rated positional free agent so he will probably wait for Cliff Lee to sign and hope one of the losing teams (Rangers or Yankees) join the Red Sox and Angels in bidding for his services. I'd be surprised if he "settled" for a 6 year contract as he's younger than Werth, and have better career numbers.

[JMDurron]

Kid T, on 08 December 2010 - 06:51 PM, said:

A reasoned and thoughtful post...are you sure you belong here?

I don't disagree with Ordonez being an injury risk - but he's attractive for his RH bat at (presumably) a reasonable salary. Any defense is probably a plus. Additionally, I imagine he would simply be a platoon player (and relegating Cameron to platoon status as well), theoretically limiting their injury exposure.

As for your comments regarding run prevention, I don't think I understand. Beltre to Youkilis is definitely a downgrade at 3B, but AGon vs Youkilis and a full season of Pedey at 2B should result in an improvement. I think Lowrie is ticketed in the Billy Hall-esque super-utility role, but if he starts at SS he's probably on par with Scutaro defensively. Salty and VMart are probably a wash behind the plate. As for the OF, having Ellsbury and Cameron healthy provide a significant upgrade over the McDonald/Nava/Patterson experience.

What I meant was that leaving the OF as-is instead of adding a Ordonez type would be a run prevention aid for the pitching staff, which I think is required as an investment in our pitching staff. I don't agree that Youkilis to Gonzalez at 1B is an upgrade, so I consider the defense at 3B to be significantly downgraded, 1B to be slightly downgraded until proven otherwise, and SS possibly to be slightly downgraded. Full season Pedroia is obviously an aid at 2B, but the IF defense as a whole is backsliding a bit. Ellsbury-Cameron-Drew is a great defensive OF, Ordonez-Ellsbury/Cameron-Drew is not, is all I meant.

In other news, I don't know anything, so nevermind. :lol: Crawford-Ellsbury/Cameron-Drew is also an awesome defensive OF, therefore the run prevention emphasis in the OF is intact.

[Mike LansWho]

Mike LansWho, on 08 December 2010 - 02:09 PM, said:

They could sign Crawford and a couple relievers, but I'm guessing that won't happen either.

I'm guessing that the Red Sox will not win the World Series in 2011.


/see what I did there??