[rominer]

Press 3 to get AIDS from Roberto Alomar.

http://www.boston.co...of_fame_ballot/

Quote

The complete ballot: Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Barry Larkin, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Kirk Rueter, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker.

You all are members of the BBBBBWAAAAA. Who is on your ballot?

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 04:05 PM, said:

Press 3 to get AIDS from Roberto Alomar.

http://www.boston.co...of_fame_ballot/



You all are members of the BBBBBWAAAAA. Who is on your ballot?

Without looking at any stats (you said we were all baseball writers) I would go with:

Alomar
Blyleven
Edgar Martinez
Jack Morris

I would need to look up stats for Raines and Larkin, but my gut instinct without stats is that they are close, but no.

[yazgoesbacklooksupitsgone]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 04:05 PM, said:

Press 3 to get AIDS from Roberto Alomar.

http://www.boston.co...of_fame_ballot/



You all are members of the BBBBBWAAAAA. Who is on your ballot?

The complete ballot: Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Barry Larkin, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Kirk Rueter, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker.


Alomar and Bagwell are no-brainers based on their numbers alone.
Blylevin should get in if you take to the time to look at his numbers and put them in the context that he was a pretty good pitcher on some really crappy teams.
Larkin should get in and if he does Trammel should get in because their stats are practically identical. Ditto for McGriff who is practically identical to Bagwell.
I'd vote Raines just because he was a dominant player for the first half of his career, unfortunately he was playing for the Expos.
I'm leaning yes but am not totally sold on Lee Smith and Dave Parker. Smith retired as the saves leader but I'm not all that impressed with saves in the age of the modern closer. Parker I remember as a dominant right fielder with the Pirates who was very good defensively, but most voters will probably remember him as a post-cocaine scandal American League DH-type.

My solid unequivocal choices are Alomar, Bagwell, Blylevin and Larkin. The rest fall into the "but if Jim Rice got in..." category.

[BigSlick]

How did I miss Bagwell?

Edit: Wait, don't answer that.

This post has been edited by BigSlick: 29 November 2010 - 05:05 PM

[rominer]

Do McGwire and Palmeiro get no consideration at all? Or do they just have to spend a few years sweating it before getting consideration?

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 05:18 PM, said:

Do McGwire and Palmeiro get no consideration at all? Or do they just have to spend a few years sweating it before getting consideration?

You are correct in the first part of your question and you are probably correct in the second part.

[yazgoesbacklooksupitsgone]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 05:18 PM, said:

Do McGwire and Palmeiro get no consideration at all? Or do they just have to spend a few years sweating it before getting consideration?

I don't think they ever get in, but for different reasons. With McGwire, if you take away the boost from PEDs, there's no there there. Aside from his rookie year, he's an injury prone guy who wasn't in the lineup very much. The most dominating portion of his career was when he was doing steroids. No steroids, no big Mac. Same goes for Sammy Sosa when he is eligible next year or the year after.

In Palmeiro's case, he's certainly got the numbers, 500 Hr, 3000 hits, and if he hadn't failed a drug screening one month after he pointed his finger at a congressional panel to deny he ever used steroids, he'd be an automatic choice. The one thing Americans hate more than a cheater is a hypocrite. If he had gotten caught without ever going before congress, he'd be in better shape than he is now. McGwire is in better shape than Palmiero by going before congress and essentially pleading the 5th, and more recently by fessing up. Palmiero will spend the rest of his life in a kind of MLB limbo currently occupied by Pete Rose. Come to think of it, Rose has a better chance of making the hall.

[rominer]

yazgoesbacklooksupitsgone, on 29 November 2010 - 05:48 PM, said:

I don't think they ever get in, but for different reasons. With McGwire, if you take away the boost from PEDs, there's no there there. Aside from his rookie year, he's an injury prone guy who wasn't in the lineup very much. The most dominating portion of his career was when he was doing steroids. No steroids, no big Mac.

How big an effect do we assume steroids to have?

McGwire had seasons of 52, 58, 70, and 65 HR. That accounts for 245 of his 583 career HR.

Let's say that without steroids, those were all 20 HR seasons. That chops 165 HR off his career total...and still leaves him at 418. Excluding players who are still on the Hall of Fame ballot (or not yet eligible), there are 3 guys ever to hit 400+ and not make the Hall: Darrell Evans, Dave Kingman, and Jose Canseco. (Really, two. Canseco doesn't count if we're subtracting HR for steroid guys)

McGwire is in roughly the same boat as those guys: low BA, not really exceptional outside of the home runs. He has a Hall of Fame OBP, but it's safe to say that minus 165 home runs his walk rate is quite a bit lower, and he's just a slugger who got on base at an acceptable pace and couldn't do much else.

Probably not a Hall of Famer...but that's if we assume that steroids account for roughly 30% of his career home run totals.

Where would the cutoff be for a guy like McGwire? Does 485 get him in? 500? The only HOF snub in that range is Fred McGriff – and that's because he played in an era of steroids guys making 500 look relatively commonplace (or else it wasn't the steroids, and McGwire and Palmeiro should be in no questions asked).

I think you probably give the nod to McGriff before McGwire for that reason (and the fact that, take away all the home runs and McGriff was the better player)...but I'm not entirely sure that McGwire wouldn't at least be a borderline guy even without steroids. How do you really judge the steroid-aided numbers?

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 07:24 PM, said:

How do you really judge the steroid-aided numbers?

You don't. You just say F*** them.

I don't have a problem with that.

[rominer]

BigSlick, on 29 November 2010 - 09:20 PM, said:

You don't. You just say F*** them.

I don't have a problem with that.

Which of these players who might get some votes do you feel comfortable saying never used steroids?

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
John Franco
Juan Gonzalez
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Larry Walker

I don't think McGriff did, just because the whole world seems convinced that he didn't.

I don't think Raines did during the years when he was Rickey Henderson Light, but I can't rule out the possibility that he did during the late career mini-resurgence that made people remember that he was once Rickey Henderson Light.

John Franco pitched until he was 112, and he is a native New Yorker, which means that in all likelihood he's a douchebag. It's not like he was throwing it by people at 100 mph when he was in his mid-50s, but who the hell knows?

Alomar didn't have huge power numbers. So I guess that's good.

Everyone else on there...I don't suspect them equally. But I couldn't really rule any of them out.

[Mike LansWho]

If I'm a baseball writer, then I assume that everybody did steroids. McGwire and Palmeiro get in. Good thing I'm not a baseball writer.

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 29 November 2010 - 10:11 PM, said:

Which of these players who might get some votes do you feel comfortable saying never used steroids?

Honestly, none of them. At the same time, I don't believe in convicting someone of something there is no evidence of.

[The Ghost of Ned Martin]

Mike LansWho, on 30 November 2010 - 10:26 AM, said:

If I'm a baseball writer, then I assume that everybody did steroids. McGwire and Palmeiro get in. Good thing I'm not a baseball writer.

I think, at this point, I have to agree. There is no way to be sure who juiced and who did not so to the only option is to judge on the numbers but grade them on the curve. McGwire's only credential for HoF consideration is a bloated HR total in an ERA of similarly bloated league average totals. Barry Bonds, on the other hand, merits entry because of his offensive numbers were exceptional across the board.

[LooiesWindup]

Also with Bonds, you can pretty much sh*tcan the whole steroid portion of his career and still have HOF creds-e.g. Stolen Bases, outfield defense, MVPs, and yes, HR. Still docked points for being an egocentric A$$ though.

[coloradojack]

The Ghost of Ned Martin, on 30 November 2010 - 10:43 AM, said:

Barry Bonds, on the other hand, merits entry because of his offensive numbers were exceptional across the board.

I think Bonds should get in....posthumously.

[Cambridge]

Roberto Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

[rominer]

Larry Walker:

7 time Gold Glove winner
5 time All Star
3 time batting champ

I know those are all kind of old fashioned, outdated things to be looking at.

His career .965 OPS is 16th best all time. It was aided, of course, by playing 10 seasons in Colorado – he had a 1.172 OPS lifetime at Coors Field (and .996 in his 7 games at Mile High). And he played in the steroids era. It's reasonably safe to say that he's not the 16th best hitter ever.

.313/.400/.565/.965 with 383 HR, 471 doubles, 230 SB, 1311 RBI...that's at least the Hall Of Not Bad For A Canadian, regardless of when and where he played.

Does he get any consideration?

[BigSlick]

rominer, on 30 November 2010 - 02:37 PM, said:

Larry Walker:

7 time Gold Glove winner
5 time All Star
3 time batting champ

I know those are all kind of old fashioned, outdated things to be looking at.

His career .965 OPS is 16th best all time. It was aided, of course, by playing 10 seasons in Colorado – he had a 1.172 OPS lifetime at Coors Field (and .996 in his 7 games at Mile High). And he played in the steroids era. It's reasonably safe to say that he's not the 16th best hitter ever.

.313/.400/.565/.965 with 383 HR, 471 doubles, 230 SB, 1311 RBI...that's at least the Hall Of Not Bad For A Canadian, regardless of when and where he played.

Racist... Although I guess Canadian wouldn't be considered a race eh?

Quote

Does he get any consideration?

He gets a little, but not a lot. Without looking up the exact numbers and presuming he had as many PA's on the road as he did at home, he had around a .750 OPS outside of Denver. To me that speaks volumes. Good player? yes. Hall of Famer? No.

[yazgoesbacklooksupitsgone]

rominer, on 30 November 2010 - 02:37 PM, said:

.313/.400/.565/.965 with 383 HR, 471 doubles, 230 SB, 1311 RBI...that's at least the Hall Of Not Bad For A Canadian, regardless of when and where he played.

I'm sorry, but the proper name for the Canadian baseball hall of fame is the "Hall of Not Bad for a Canadian, Eh?"

[rominer]

BigSlick, on 30 November 2010 - 02:48 PM, said:

He gets a little, but not a lot. Without looking up the exact numbers and presuming he had as many PA's on the road as he did at home, he had around a .750 OPS outside of Denver. To me that speaks volumes. Good player? yes. Hall of Famer? No.

His career road OPS was .865.

Excluding his home ballparks in Colorado, Montreal, and St. Louis, here are the 10 parks where he had the most plate appearances:

San Diego (Qualcomm) - 322 PAs, .927 OPS
Chicago (Wrigley) – 304 PAs, 1.002 OPS
LA (Dodger Stadium) - 302 PAs, .808 OPS
New York (Shea) – 267 PAs, .685 OPS
Philly (Veteran's) – 258 PAs, .810 OPS
Pittsburgh (3 Rivers) – 251 PAs, .786 OPS
Cincinnati (Cinergy) – 250 PAs, .954 OPS
San Francisco (3Com) – 213 PAs, .813 OPS
Florida (ProPlayer) – 194 PAs, .899 OPS
Arizona (Bank One) – 170 PAs, 1.015 OPS

He sucked against the Mets, which is an impressive feat. But otherwise, that's pretty good with a smattering of great.