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Sox vs. Yankees
Positional breakdown - who bettah?

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Manny's PS2 

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Posted 20 December 2010 - 10:31 AM

Gonzalez > Teixeieieiera
Cano=Pedroia
Scutaro=Jeter
Youkilis < Aroid
Salty/Tek = Martin/Cervelli
Perfect Storm>Gardner
Ellsbury>Granderson
Swished<Drew

Lester=CC
Buchh=Hughes
Beckett>Pet-it
Lacking>Crazy AJ
Dice>Nova (Which I thought was a college in FLA)

BP
Atchison < Robertson
Doubront > Feliciano
Wheeler - Robertson
Jenks > Logan
Bard > Jober
Papelbon < Mo

So my analysis says: haha, better luck next year MFY.

The Jeter=Scutaro thing is questionable, but those intangibles are fading like his range at short stop - perhaps he is lining his cleats with the gold from all those gold gloves?

This post has been edited by Manny's PS2: 20 December 2010 - 10:35 AM

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Posted 20 December 2010 - 10:51 AM

View PostManny, on 20 December 2010 - 10:31 AM, said:

The Jeter=Scutaro thing is questionable,


The only reason it's questionable is because we listen too much the media. The Yankees are making the mistake with Jeter that Theo was too smart to make with Pedro. Jeter may put up better numbers next year than he did this year, but it won't be by a lot.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 11:24 AM

Here's my take. I'm going to concentrate on just the offense.

C: Advantage goes to Yankees, slightly. Having a largely untested starting catcher and a 39 year old backup doesn't do the Red Sox any favors. If we're going to narrow the New York catchers down to Cervelli and Martin, then they get the slight edge. Cervelli is defensively inclined enough to give the Yankees the slight edge. You can't expect much offensively of him, but the same could be said of Saltalamacchia and Varitek. Who knows what you're going to get from Martin. I'd say it's about 50/50 that he'll have a bounce back year. I'm sure Posada will get some looks behind the plate as well. He still has some offensive upside.

1B: No advantage either way. Both are strong defensively. Both are strong on offense. I think that Gonzalez has an awful lot to prove in the AL East. I'm just not ready to hand him the definitive advantage over Teixeira.

2B: Advantage Yankees. I love Pedroia as much as the next Red Sox fan, but Cano right now is better than him. He's come off of a .914 OPS 2010 season. He's good defensively and he's averaged 160 games per year over the past 4 seasons. The edge clearly goes to Cano here, at least at this point in time.

SS: Advantage Yankees, slightly. Assuming here that Scutaro will be the starting SS for Boston. Both he and Jeter at this point in their careers are close defensively. Both are actually pretty close offensively as well. I just think that Jeter is more of a lock to score another 100 runs next season. I can't say the same about Scutaro. Scutaro shouldn't be counted on for that as much this season as he'll probably be much lower in the lineup. His numbers might end up looking decent, but Jeter will cross the plate much more often.

3B: Advantage Red Sox. This might go against conventional wisdom and seem like a homer call, but I must think that Youkilis is better than A-Rod. A-Rod's days of 40+ HR's and 1.000+ OPS seem to be over. His numbers over the past season have still been good, but not the kind of good that could get you a $30M per year contract. A-Rod is now a mere mortal and Youkilis could be the better of the mortals. He's coming off of three straight .950+ OPS seasons and just seems to be getting better. He had an injury shortened 2010 season, but there's no indication that he won't bounce back. A-Rod might have the defensive edge, but not by a lot as both aren't in the upper echelon of defensive thirdbasemen.

I'm not going to do a head-to-head for each OF position since I honestly don't know how the Yankees will line things up (will Gardner play CF, Granderson LF??).

OF: I hate to do this since I think that the Red Sox will have a sweet OF, but I think the Yankees might be a little bit better. Swisher and Granderson both have good pop to go along with some decent defense. Gardner has tremendous speed and could very well be the best defensive outfielder in the AL. You can give Crawford the advantage over Gardner since he has the same speed and defensive prowess, but with much more pop. JD Drew is solid both defensively and offensively, just as Swisher and Granderson are. The issue here is with Ellsbury. He's coming off of an almost completely lost season and has a lot to prove in 2011. Can he build on the success he had in 2009 after missing most of 2010? Will those ribs be completely healthy for opening day? How much will it take to re-aggravate the injury (this concerns me the most)? I think there are just too many question marks there. Slight advantage goes to the Yankees.

DH: Advantage Red Sox. I'm assuming that Posada will be the primary DH for the Yankees. He still has some pop and can put up an .800+ OPS. Ortiz should still be good for 30+ HR, 100+ RBI and ~.900 OPS. Both are in contract years, so they'll be playing for their next contracts. I expect a big season out of Ortiz. Posada could very well put up some good numbers, but I don't think they'll match Ortiz.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 11:38 AM

View PostMike LansWho, on 20 December 2010 - 11:24 AM, said:

Here's my take. I'm going to concentrate on just the offense.

SS: Advantage Yankees, slightly. Assuming here that Scutaro will be the starting SS for Boston. Both he and Jeter at this point in their careers are close defensively. Both are actually pretty close offensively as well. I just think that Jeter is more of a lock to score another 100 runs next season. I can't say the same about Scutaro. Scutaro shouldn't be counted on for that as much this season as he'll probably be much lower in the lineup. His numbers might end up looking decent, but Jeter will cross the plate much more often.


MLW, I don't mean to specifically call you out on this. It's something that I've always disagreed with and everyone seems to do it.

When you compare one team vs. another there needs to be 2 completely separate comparisons. I feel you should go position by position to compare defense only. When comparing offensive production it should go by the projected batting order. For example, Scutaro should be compared to Jeter defensively, but when comparing teams he should be compared to whoever you think the #8 hitter will be in the Yankee lineup offensively, not who happens to play the same defensive position.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 11:53 AM

View PostBigSlick, on 20 December 2010 - 11:38 AM, said:

but when comparing teams he should be compared to whoever you think the #8 hitter will be in the Yankee lineup offensively, not who happens to play the same defensive position.


I completely agree with this. It doesn't come across as fair that I gave Jeter the edge because I expect him to score more runs even after I admitted that Marco's place in the order will hurt him in that category. The bottom line is that I don't have the foggiest clue as to what the typical Yankee lineup will be just like I don't know if they plan on using Gardner in CF. I don't even know what the Red Sox plan on doing for 1 through 9. I'm only really basing this on assumptions. In the end none of this really matters. It's all anecdotal and based almost entirely on my personal expectations. I'm just trying to add a little context to those expectations.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 01:16 PM

Jed Lowrie has roughly the equivalent of a full season under his belt (spread over 3 years): 168 games, 579 PAs, 499 ABs.

Lifetime against lefties, his line is .324/.403/.541/.944 with 7 HR and 14 doubles in 197 PAs.

I expect Derek Jeter will have a bit of a bounceback year offensively. And for all of the "lack thereof" that comes into play when discussing Jeter's range defensively, he is Mr. Fielding Percentage. When balls are within his reach, he knows what he's doing. The fact that he's so steady when balls come right at him is enough that I at least wouldn't be surprised if he had the edge defensively over Scutaro.

But a healthy season from Lowrie and particularly the damage he could do against the Yankees' heavy lefty rotation of CC Sabathia and could be enough to offset whatever edge Jeter might have over Scutaro.

Given that it's still December, I would even say that Scutaro + Lowrie > Jeter. By a wide margin. But Nomar's better.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 01:24 PM

So you are saying that Jeter is awesome when balls are in his face?

I guess I agree with that. He does handle the routine plays, but I have never been impressed with his arm strength and he is obviously losing what range he had at SS. I think he's better suited for 2nd or 3rd at this point, but there's no room there either.

Cano is the star (in my mind) on that team now. But I wonder if last year was the start of a HOF type stretch or an outlier. It will be interesting to see how he handles being in the spotlight a bit more, as some of the big bats around him begin their decline. (DJ, ARod)
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 01:34 PM

I was struggling with the Scutaro versus Lowrie thing. I could have gone with Lowrie as the everyday SS versus Jeter, but decided to stick with Scutaro (it just made for easier comparison because Lowrie's lack of a good sample size). I have Scutaro slotted in at SS with Lowrie being the IF UTL guy. He could end up getting plenty of ABs between 2B, SS and 3B. I have a feeling that Francona will stick with the veteran in Scutaro at SS, unless he absolutely tanks during Spring Training and Lowrie puts on a show. Right now I think it's Marco's job to loose and loose bad.

While I think it's great that Lowrie had a great 2010, I'm not quite so ready to forget that his numbers were a little underwhelming in the previous two seasons. I know that injuries and lack of experience could have a lot to do with that. The bottom line is that his sample size is just too small to set some realistic expectations as an every day SS. Basically, I'm weaseling out of having to slot him against Jeter.

I do, however, expect him to be a valuable member of this team as the super utility infielder. I'm sure he'll get plenty of work late in game as a pinch hitter in situational spots. He's another guy that has a lot to prove if he wants to have an every day gig.
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rominer 

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Posted 20 December 2010 - 01:53 PM

View PostManny, on 20 December 2010 - 01:24 PM, said:

So you are saying that Jeter is awesome when balls are in his face?


It's only a rumor.

Quote

He does handle the routine plays, but I have never been impressed with his arm strength and he is obviously losing what range he had at SS.


By no means am I saying that Jeter is a good defensive shortstop. But the Yankees were last in the AL in chances by a SS last year (terrible range), but first in fielding percentage. Sox were second to last in total chances (part of which might have been the Beltre factor, and some of which comes from leading the league in Ks as a staff)...but also near the bottom in fielding percentage.

Jeter sucks. But he doesn't make errors. He might have the edge defensively over Scutaro. That would reflect poorly on Scutaro more than it would reflect well on Jeter. But hey. Jeter makes $15 million. You don't do that if you're not awesome.


View PostMike LansWho, on 20 December 2010 - 01:34 PM, said:

I was struggling with the Scutaro versus Lowrie thing. I could have gone with Lowrie as the everyday SS versus Jeter, but decided to stick with Scutaro (it just made for easier comparison because Lowrie's lack of a good sample size).


Unless Scutaro's shoulder problem from the end of last year is ongoing, I would expect him to keep the starting job for now.

Lowrie doesn't have a big body of work to judge but there's a decent sized sample spread over three years to suggest that he is very good against lefties / hitting from the right side. For that reason alone, I think he still figures to be a significant part of the equation at SS. And I think he helps make up for any offensive gap between Scutaro (who pretty much had a career average year offensively in 2010) and Jeter (who had the worst year of his career).
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 06:13 PM

Quote

OF: I hate to do this since I think that the Red Sox will have a sweet OF, but I think the Yankees might be a little bit better. Swisher and Granderson both have good pop to go along with some decent defense.


I would suggest that our OF is significantly better. Granderson and Swisher benefit greatly from the dimensions at Yankee stadium when it comes to power. Still that counts and the Yankees may score more runs over 162 games, but I disagree with Manny PS2s premise about starting pitching.

Quote


Lester=CC
Buchh=Hughes
Beckett>Pet-it
Lacking>Crazy AJ
Dice>Nova (Which I thought was a college in FLA)


I think you need to match up the positions with how they are likely to be slated and I believe it should be thus:

CC > Beckett (By a large margin, though Beckett has been equal to CC in past years)
Lester > AJ (by a large margin)
Pettite > Lackey (closer than you think and this is ONLY if Pettite returns)
Buccholz > Hughes (by a very large margin. I disagree with your = as it's based only on wins. peripherals show bucc much much better)
Dice/Wake > Nova (by a large margin)

I also think our depth at SP is much much better when injuries to Dice, Wake, Beckett, Pettite and AJ inevitably occur. I will take our staff all the time.

Overall, I give us the slight edge, but a huge edge when injuries occur and/or if Beckett can return to form. I also hope that Paps is taking his walk year seriously and spends some time this winter working on his long-forgotten slider to become dominant again. That's the only way he will earn the 12 mil/yr by another team he is hoping for after this season.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 06:19 PM

View Postgumbo, on 20 December 2010 - 06:13 PM, said:

I think you need to match up the positions with how they are likely to be slated and I believe it should be thus:


I agree with your premise, but I disagree with the following...

Quote

CC > Beckett (By a large margin, though Beckett has been equal to CC in past years)
Lester > AJ (by a large margin)
Pettite > Lackey (closer than you think and this is ONLY if Pettite returns)
Buccholz > Hughes (by a very large margin. I disagree with your = as it's based only on wins. peripherals show bucc much much better)
Dice/Wake > Nova (by a large margin)


I know Francona has been too loyal to veterans at times, but I hope he gives Lester the Opening day start, followed by Buccholz and then Beckett. There are 2 reasons for this, the first reason is because that's where they belong. The second reason is that putting Beckett 3rd in the rotation will hopefully light a fire under his ass and motivate him to a great season.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 06:42 PM

View PostBigSlick, on 20 December 2010 - 06:19 PM, said:

I agree with your premise, but I disagree with the following...

I know Francona has been too loyal to veterans at times, but I hope he gives Lester the Opening day start, followed by Buccholz and then Beckett. There are 2 reasons for this, the first reason is because that's where they belong. The second reason is that putting Beckett 3rd in the rotation will hopefully light a fire under his ass and motivate him to a great season.


Over the course of a season, I think who the "#1" is is pretty irrelevant anyway.

Sabathia has an edge over any of our guys because he eats innings like he eats everything else. I think it's pretty close otherwise between Sabathia and Lester so if we're talking about a postseason rotation, I wouldn't be afraid to bet on Lester.

I don't think that Burnett is the Yankees' second best starter anymore (if he ever was)...and Beckett seems pretty capable of being anywhere from #1 to #7 on the Sox. He could be the best. Or he could just give up 80 HR and be a worse option than Wakefield or Doubront. But if we go with the two ex-Marlins, I'd say Beckett ≥ Burnett.

Any of the expected starters vs. Andy Pettitte: Pettitte has generally been more durable than it seems (to me). Last year was one of only 6 seasons in his 96 year career below 200 IP, and one of only 4 below 190 IP. He's also the same age as my grandmother, though, so I'm inclined to think that any Red Sox starter, including 5 inning Matsuzaka, is probably going to end up pitching more innings than Pettitte. If Pettitte continues last year's HGH regimen, then he could well be "better" than Lackey, Matsuzaka, or Bad Beckett (please, God, not Bad Beckett) but innings are important. And Andy isn't going to pitch a lot of them.

Hughes, whatever, he's pretty good. He'll probably get better. Ivannova (I think that's a brand of cat food), or other mystery starter TBD, is an unknown. Lackey is going to have an ERA of 4 point something, and Matsuzaka is going to probably make Francona bust out those wigs from those NESN commercials last year, just so he can pull all the hair out. Edge, gyroball.

We win.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 09:38 PM

Buchholz for Christ's sake.

Buchholz.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 09:48 PM

View PostManny, on 20 December 2010 - 10:31 AM, said:

Gonzalez > Teixeieieiera
Cano=Pedroia
Scutaro=Jeter
Youkilis < Aroid
Salty/Tek = Martin/Cervelli
Perfect Storm>Gardner
Ellsbury>Granderson
Swished<Drew

Lester=CC
Buchh=Hughes
Beckett>Pet-it
Lacking>Crazy AJ
Dice>Nova (Which I thought was a college in FLA)

BP
Atchison < Robertson
Doubront > Feliciano
Wheeler - Robertson
Jenks > Logan
Bard > Jober
Papelbon < Mo

So my analysis says: haha, better luck next year MFY.

The Jeter=Scutaro thing is questionable, but those intangibles are fading like his range at short stop - perhaps he is lining his cleats with the gold from all those gold gloves?


How exactly is Youkilis < than Aroid? Youkilis has been better the last 2 years and INFINITELY better last year before the injury. Youkilis is a MUCH better hitter and defender at this point in their careers. Aroid is slow to his left and right.. He is the most overrated player in the game at this point. His .847 OPS and declining health cannot even stand on the same field as Youkilis and his near 1.000 OPS.

Another thing that really grinds me is how anyone in their right mind can say Tex is a WASH with Adrian Gonzalez. You talk to Yankee fans and they even go as far as to say Tex is more valuable because of his defense! Gonzalez is every bit as good defensively AND A MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, better hitter. If you look at the Park adjusted numbers it is like comparing Ted Williams to Mike Greenwell. Gonzalez is so much more polished at the plate it is not even quantifiable.

How does Buchholz = Hughes? Are you freaking kidding me? Some of this is so asinine I cannot even go on.. Get a clue.. Go look at the numbers.

This post has been edited by Schilldro: 20 December 2010 - 09:50 PM

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Posted 20 December 2010 - 09:58 PM

View PostMike LansWho, on 20 December 2010 - 11:24 AM, said:

Here's my take. I'm going to concentrate on just the offense.

C: Advantage goes to Yankees, slightly. Having a largely untested starting catcher and a 39 year old backup doesn't do the Red Sox any favors. If we're going to narrow the New York catchers down to Cervelli and Martin, then they get the slight edge. Cervelli is defensively inclined enough to give the Yankees the slight edge. You can't expect much offensively of him, but the same could be said of Saltalamacchia and Varitek. Who knows what you're going to get from Martin. I'd say it's about 50/50 that he'll have a bounce back year. I'm sure Posada will get some looks behind the plate as well. He still has some offensive upside.

1B: No advantage either way. Both are strong defensively. Both are strong on offense. I think that Gonzalez has an awful lot to prove in the AL East. I'm just not ready to hand him the definitive advantage over Teixeira.

2B: Advantage Yankees. I love Pedroia as much as the next Red Sox fan, but Cano right now is better than him. He's come off of a .914 OPS 2010 season. He's good defensively and he's averaged 160 games per year over the past 4 seasons. The edge clearly goes to Cano here, at least at this point in time.

SS: Advantage Yankees, slightly. Assuming here that Scutaro will be the starting SS for Boston. Both he and Jeter at this point in their careers are close defensively. Both are actually pretty close offensively as well. I just think that Jeter is more of a lock to score another 100 runs next season. I can't say the same about Scutaro. Scutaro shouldn't be counted on for that as much this season as he'll probably be much lower in the lineup. His numbers might end up looking decent, but Jeter will cross the plate much more often.

3B: Advantage Red Sox. This might go against conventional wisdom and seem like a homer call, but I must think that Youkilis is better than A-Rod. A-Rod's days of 40+ HR's and 1.000+ OPS seem to be over. His numbers over the past season have still been good, but not the kind of good that could get you a $30M per year contract. A-Rod is now a mere mortal and Youkilis could be the better of the mortals. He's coming off of three straight .950+ OPS seasons and just seems to be getting better. He had an injury shortened 2010 season, but there's no indication that he won't bounce back. A-Rod might have the defensive edge, but not by a lot as both aren't in the upper echelon of defensive thirdbasemen.

I'm not going to do a head-to-head for each OF position since I honestly don't know how the Yankees will line things up (will Gardner play CF, Granderson LF??).

OF: I hate to do this since I think that the Red Sox will have a sweet OF, but I think the Yankees might be a little bit better. Swisher and Granderson both have good pop to go along with some decent defense. Gardner has tremendous speed and could very well be the best defensive outfielder in the AL. You can give Crawford the advantage over Gardner since he has the same speed and defensive prowess, but with much more pop. JD Drew is solid both defensively and offensively, just as Swisher and Granderson are. The issue here is with Ellsbury. He's coming off of an almost completely lost season and has a lot to prove in 2011. Can he build on the success he had in 2009 after missing most of 2010? Will those ribs be completely healthy for opening day? How much will it take to re-aggravate the injury (this concerns me the most)? I think there are just too many question marks there. Slight advantage goes to the Yankees.

DH: Advantage Red Sox. I'm assuming that Posada will be the primary DH for the Yankees. He still has some pop and can put up an .800+ OPS. Ortiz should still be good for 30+ HR, 100+ RBI and ~.900 OPS. Both are in contract years, so they'll be playing for their next contracts. I expect a big season out of Ortiz. Posada could very well put up some good numbers, but I don't think they'll match Ortiz.


Seriously..what are you on? I am dead serious. Do you know what Park Factors are? Ever heard of them? Adrian Gonzalez played in the WORST hitters park in baseball. His road OPS was 1.045. Mark Tex played in one of the BEST parks for lefties(80% of his AB's).. Even with those disadvantages for Adrian, he STILL outperformed Tex.. When you adjust for PF's it is a LANDSLIDE win for Adrian Ginzalez? And just what does A-Gone have to prove in the A.L. East? He is NOT a pitcher. Truth be told, the PITCHING in the N.L. West, top to bottom, is just as good... Didn't the Giants win the World Series? Adrian Gonzalez will outperform Mark Tex by a WIDE Margin in EVERY offensive category.. Your post will go down as EPIC Comedy.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 10:09 PM

Here is my take.

Crawford MUCH better than Gardener
Ellsbury = Granderson(Granderson hits more HR's(chip shot RF) and Ellsbury is much faster.
Ortiz is a MUCH better hitter than Posada
Adrian Gonzalez is a MUCH better hitter than Tex
Youkilis is better than Aroid at this point in their careers
Scutaro = Jeter
Cano slight edge over Pedroia
Drew = Swisher.. Swisher very slight edge offensively and Drew is a MUCH better RF'er..Swisher is one of the worst RF's I have ever seen.
Salty = Martin.. Salty has a better arm and is a switch hitter.. Martin is a .690 OPS hitter.. Salty in less AB's hasn;t proven anything

Lester=CC
Clay is MUCH better than Hughes
Beckett is better than Burnett..he always has been and always will be..
Lackey is MUCH better than Nova even with an off year
Dice-K is better than whatever jobber the Yankees have in the 5-slot

The Red Sox pen is SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Yankees. The Yankees may have the best pitcher in the pen but the Red Sox have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best and more depth up and down including an ace 6th starter in Wakefield and possible 7th in Doubront.

I am sick and tired of all of this.. "it is close".. It is most certainly not close. The Yankees will be lucky to win 90 games as they are constructed while I believe the Red Sox are a 99-112 win team.
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Posted 20 December 2010 - 10:50 PM

View Postroidrage, on 20 December 2010 - 09:38 PM, said:

Buchholz for Christ's sake.

Buchholz.


You know what really sucks? Reading a post where someone is being insulted, so you scroll up to see who it is, and it's you.

I suck.

Edit: and Gumbo.

This post has been edited by BigSlick: 20 December 2010 - 10:53 PM

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Posted 21 December 2010 - 08:16 AM

While the Red Sox roster looks to mostly be set, the Yankees still have some work to do, particularly if Pettitte is still waffling over retiring vs returning. There's no point in trying to do the comparison until we know more about what their final roster will look like.
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Posted 21 December 2010 - 08:41 AM

View PostJMDurron, on 21 December 2010 - 08:16 AM, said:

While the Red Sox roster looks to mostly be set, the Yankees still have some work to do, particularly if Pettitte is still waffling over retiring vs returning. There's no point in trying to do the comparison until we know more about what their final roster will look like.


That's no fun. Who wants to compare the two after Pettite signs and they trade for Felix Hernandez? I want to do it now!
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Posted 21 December 2010 - 09:15 AM

Am I really an idiot to say AROD>Youkilis? I love youks, but I still think AROD is a better hitter.
But I'm also happy that I stirred the pot on something baseball related.
Carry on, jerks.
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