[rominer]

Granderson's downside is probably 20+ home runs with an OBP hovering right around Dustin Pedroia's batting average, and a batting average hovering right around David Ortiz's April.

Ellsbury's (healthy) downside is 50+ steals with an OBP hovering around Ichiro's batting average.

I used to really like Granderson until last year when I suddenly realized what an asshole he is. But his downside has also been his two year norm. If I had to pick the one who is more likely to take a step forward this year, I'd be more inclined to go with Ellsbury than Granderson.

None of which changes the fact that Ellsbury takes "Family Circus" routes on fly balls, throws like a crippled version of Johnny Damon, and is never going to have Granderson's power. But if Ellsbury can be a singles hitter with a .360 OBP instead of a singles hitter with a .330 OBP, I might give him the edge over Granderson. I don't think there's an obvious answer, though. They're different players, but both inconsistent players with high upside. Could go either (or neither) way.

EDIT: I hate to say this, but "what MPS2 said."

This post has been edited by rominer: 22 December 2010 - 01:19 PM

[Manny's PS2]

Nobody in the history of sports (except for the Miami kicker from the 70's) throws worse than Johnny Damon. Damn your hyperbole, and the torpedos.

[StuckInChiTown]

Manny, on 22 December 2010 - 01:20 PM, said:

Nobody in the history of sports (except for Garo Yepremian) throws worse than Johnny Damon. Damn your hyperbole, and the torpedos.

fixed

[Manny's PS2]

I refuse to spell check or check names - too much like work. Thanks!

[Kid T]

I wonder if the better OF comparison is Ellsbury vs Gardiner and Crawford vs Granderson.

In that case - I would give Crawford the clear win over Granderson, and the Ellsbury/Gardiner comparison is a closer race than most here would be willing to admit.

Edit: JMD, I don't think there's any way that Varitek's defense makes up for the incremental offense provided by Posada. I think in that scenario, it's a clear win for the Yankees. It's also more likely that the truth will be some sort of shared time between Posada, Cervelli, and Martin. I don't think they bring up Montero unless he plays every day. He's likely to either start in AAA or be traded than platooned in the ML in my opinion.

This post has been edited by Kid T: 22 December 2010 - 10:43 PM

[Sox Sweep Again]

Shouldn't Ellsbury play left and Crawford center?

[MrNewEngland]

No.

[The Ghost of Ned Martin]

MrNewEngland, on 23 December 2010 - 04:31 AM, said:

No.

Hard to argue with that logic.

[JMDurron]

Kid T, on 22 December 2010 - 10:40 PM, said:

I wonder if the better OF comparison is Ellsbury vs Gardiner and Crawford vs Granderson.

In that case - I would give Crawford the clear win over Granderson, and the Ellsbury/Gardiner comparison is a closer race than most here would be willing to admit.

Edit: JMD, I don't think there's any way that Varitek's defense makes up for the incremental offense provided by Posada. I think in that scenario, it's a clear win for the Yankees. It's also more likely that the truth will be some sort of shared time between Posada, Cervelli, and Martin. I don't think they bring up Montero unless he plays every day. He's likely to either start in AAA or be traded than platooned in the ML in my opinion.

Normally, I would agree, because the actual positive impact of catcher defense is difficult to measure. However, Posada's reputation as a defensive catcher is so universally bad (just ask Burnett), while Varitek's is so universally good (ask Beckett or Papelbon or Bard), that I do think it is a factor that changes the calculus somewhat. Varitek also still hits LHP about as well as Posada hits everyone, so the real key is how well Salty hits RHP. Varitek basically matches Posada's offense when used in limited action, and is a superior defensive catcher. Posada earns much of this value back by being a better hitter against RHP and being more durable...so far. That basically leaves Cervelli/Martin/Montero vs Salty, which is a huge variable. I was basically using the Montero possibility to give the Yankees some fair credit (plus I don't buy that Martin matters just yet), because I do honestly think that saying that Salty/Varitek is equal to Posada/Cervelli or Cervelli/Posada is actually being pessimistic from the Red Sox perspective.

[Mike LansWho]

I get the distinct impression that Posada will be the primary DH, Martin will be the starting catcher and Montero will most likely be traded. I didn't think that Posada would figure much into the C equation anyway. Without getting into the justifications, here's how I see it:

Saltalamacchia/Varitek = Martin/Cervelli
David Ortiz > Jorge Posada

[rominer]

Mike LansWho, on 23 December 2010 - 02:33 PM, said:

Saltalamacchia/Varitek = Martin/Cervelli

That's the safe middle ground for a position that I could see ending up as anything from a huge advantage for the Sox to a huge advantage for the Yankees.

I really just have no idea. Varitek might be awesome against lefties for the first two months, then start to slump, then get injured. That wouldn't be unprecedented. Saltalamacchia might hit .215 and start Mackey Sassering the ball back to the pitcher halfway through the season.

Or Varitek could stay healthy and Salty could hit 20 HR and show instant results from a winter of working on his defense with Gary Tuck.

I have no idea. Russell Martin might revert to '06-'08 form. He also has tremendous potential to make Francisco Cervelli look like the second coming of Jorge Posada by comparison (only, without the 82 passed balls per year and 4-hop throws to second base). And speaking of second comings, there's the Jesus factor. That Montero kid is supposed to be the best player the Yankees have had since Babe Ruth.

No clue.

Edge: Red Sox. Because pitchers make catchers look good, and I'm going with the Sox staff. Also, f**k the Yankees.

[StuckInChiTown]

rominer, on 23 December 2010 - 02:59 PM, said:

And speaking of second comings, there's the Jesus factor. That Montero kid is supposed to be the best player the Yankees have had since Babe Ruth.

Actually I hear Ruth was a better defensive catcher.

[Manny's PS2]

I thought the statues in the New Toilet were in LF, not starting at C.

[Kid T]

JMDurron, on 23 December 2010 - 08:19 AM, said:

Normally, I would agree, because the actual positive impact of catcher defense is difficult to measure. ..ask Beckett or Papelbon or Bard

You are correct that it's difficult to measure the defensive impact of catchers. However, I do recall either Law or Neyer citing a study showing that there is no correlative statistical differences for catchers in their game calling/receiving (i.e. catchers ERA). Nevertheless, I'm looking forward to the upcoming season. Every Yankee fan I talk to seems very nervous.

[Sox Sweep Again]

1) CC Sabathia
2) Phil Hughes
3) A. J. Burnett
4) Ivan Nova
5) Sergio Mitre

Is that the 2011 Yankee rotation?

[BigSlick]

Sox Sweep Again, on 03 January 2011 - 11:03 PM, said:

1) CC Sabathia
2) Phil Hughes
3) A. J. Burnett
4) Ivan Nova
5) Sergio Mitre

Is that the 2011 Yankee rotation?

That looks about right, unless Pettite comes back.

[orrie]

Sox Sweep Again, on 03 January 2011 - 11:03 PM, said:

1) CC Sabathia
2) Phil Hughes
3) A. J. Burnett
4) Ivan Nova
5) Sergio Mitre

Is that the 2011 Yankee rotation?

Sabathia and Hughes and pray for hail.

[JMDurron]

I read #s 4 and 5 in that rotation, and my only question is "which one is Bubba Crosby?" There's no way in hell that will be their Opening Day rotation, I just can't figure out whether they try to go all-out and trade major prospects for somebody to slot between Sabathia and Hughes, or if they make a more minor upgrade for a Blanton-type innings-eater just to give them some depth and avoid having two newbies in the rotation from day 1.

[SoxAroundTheWorld]

Sox Sweep Again, on 03 January 2011 - 11:03 PM, said:

1) CC Sabathia
2) Phil Hughes
3) A. J. Burnett
4) Ivan Nova
5) Sergio Mitre

Is that the 2011 Yankee rotation?

Agree with others that there's no way the NYY let that rotation stand. If nothing else, they'll take a flyer on some washed up formerly decent pitcher - like Pettite. What's with Joba? Have they completely dumped the idea of making him a starter?

[BigSlick]

SoxAroundTheWorld, on 04 January 2011 - 08:51 AM, said:

Agree with others that there's no way the NYY let that rotation stand.

We all know they will do something, but as of right now, the Yankees rotation is average at best and one choked on chicken wing from being well below average. My hope is that the Sox jump out to a huge lead while the Yankees stumble and make it so that it isn't worth it for them to trade for Felix Hernandez.

This post has been edited by BigSlick: 04 January 2011 - 09:10 AM