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2011 Sox: Gentlemen, place your bets


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#1 rominer

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 07:32 PM

Here's what we have so far:

BigSlick proposes that at season's end, the total of Jon Lester's ERA + Clay Buchholz's ERA will be under 6.50. MrNE takes the over on that, with high stakes added:

At the end of the season whoever is right gets to pic the other's avatar for a month.


As a result of MrNE's bet, the over/under line moved to 7.00, at which point ghostoffoxx promptly took the over. (stakes unknown)

Which brings us to right now. The line has moved again. The over/under is now 7.25. Someone keep the betting alive.

#2 ghostoffoxx

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 07:37 PM

If someone takes the under on the 7.00 ERA I'm down for the same stakes that Mr. NE and BS have, but I am open to other wagers as well.

#3 Sox Sweep Again

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 08:25 PM

I'll take the under on 7.25...

#4 BigSlick

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 08:36 PM

Hey, I didn't accept that bet yet.

Edit: partly because I don't want my avatar to be a ?

Edited by BigSlick, 03 February 2011 - 08:36 PM.


#5 Cambridge

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 09:15 PM

Today I bet on Jacoby Ellsbury by trading for him in my Scoresheet league. I dealt Yonder Alonso and a low-round draft pick.

#6 JMDurron

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 08:19 AM

Today I bet on Jacoby Ellsbury by trading for him in my Scoresheet league. I dealt Yonder Alonso and a low-round draft pick.


What does he need to do in order for you to win?

#7 Hail Cesar

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 09:10 AM

I'll throw one out there. I bet that by the end of the season Ellsbury and Crawford have over 80 stolen bases combined. If someone takes the under and I lose, then you can change my avatar and signature line for a month.

#8 BigSlick

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 09:40 AM

I'll throw one out there. I bet that by the end of the season Ellsbury and Crawford have over 80 stolen bases combined. If someone takes the under and I lose, then you can change my avatar and signature line for a month.


That's pretty much the same as betting that neither Ellsbury or Crawford will be injured for a significant amount of time.

#9 Mike LansWho

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 10:00 AM

I have the over/under of babies Baystater will have with David Ortiz at 9,999.

#10 BigSlick

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 10:28 AM

I have the over/under of babies Baystater will have with David Ortiz at 9,999.


Don't make me change your post like I did his.

#11 Hail Cesar

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 11:12 AM

That's pretty much the same as betting that neither Ellsbury or Crawford will be injured for a significant amount of time.


Good point. I'd take that bet too.

I think the determination of whether Ellsbury and Crawford have over 80 stolen bases combined will be where Crawford hits in the order. If Crawford is hitting in the three hole, then I'd say about 25% of the time he may have Pedrioa on base in front of him blocking any steal attempts. So unless Crawford comes up with some crazy way to steal a base and toss Petey to the next base at the same time, then I think you might see a lower stolen base total for Crawford than his yearly average.

#12 Cambridge

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 12:04 PM

What does he need to do in order for you to win?


Essentially stay healthy and do what he's capable of. What makes Scoresheet good is that it rewards real performance instead of counting stats, which often aren't indicative of a player's true value. For instance, if Ellsbury hits .300/.390/.490, it won't matter if he gets 50 RBI or 100 RBI -- this isn't a category league where many of a player's numbers are directly related to his [real life] teamamtes.

#13 SoxAroundTheWorld

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 01:08 PM

Good point. I'd take that bet too.

I think the determination of whether Ellsbury and Crawford have over 80 stolen bases combined will be where Crawford hits in the order. If Crawford is hitting in the three hole, then I'd say about 25% of the time he may have Pedrioa on base in front of him blocking any steal attempts. So unless Crawford comes up with some crazy way to steal a base and toss Petey to the next base at the same time, then I think you might see a lower stolen base total for Crawford than his yearly average.


Lord knows that I'm no stathead, but seems to me that if both Pedey and Crawford have .400 OBPs, they both get on in the same inning only 16% of the time. Take out of that the times that one or the other hit for extra bases, that leaves Pedey blocking Crawford's steals less than 15% of the time. Not horribly significant.

In other words, I'll happily take the over on Ells-Craw stealing 80. I'm thinking that they come in somewhere in the 90-100 range. In fact, put me down for over at 90. I need a new avatar anyway.

#14 rominer

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Posted 22 March 2011 - 02:41 PM

I am exactly zero percent surprised at the degree to which you people are a bunch of pussies who are afraid to bet something as gay as an avatar over something as meaningless as the over/under on Buchholz's ERA + Lester's ERA.

So am providing you with the kind of structure that leaves you with no excuses for not betting, predicting, prognosticating, or whatever the f**k assholes like you choose to call it. Go here, take about 23 seconds to make predictions about opening day. Winner gets a video of BigSlick "catching" a home run ball. Losers get a video of BigSlick eating 14 lbs. of chicken wings. Non-participants get to have sex with Charlie Sheen. Unless they want to, in which case they can't.

Stakes not high enough for you? Good. That's a start.

Don't try to say that you're too busy. It only takes one hand to do this thing.

#15 Mike LansWho

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Posted 22 March 2011 - 02:51 PM

Haha, my final score came up as a date.

#16 BigSlick

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Posted 22 March 2011 - 03:20 PM

Renton,

Please turn off your phone from 30 minutes before the opening day game starts until after it ends. I'm counting on you to help me win this thing.

Thanks

#17 rominer

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Posted 23 March 2011 - 11:15 AM

Who is the douche who picked Jarrod Saltalamacchia to bat both 7th and 8th on opening day, and I how did I get conned into fulfilling his random act of clairvoyance?

#18 BigSlick

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Posted 23 March 2011 - 11:23 AM

Who is the douche who picked Jarrod Saltalamacchia to bat both 7th and 8th on opening day, and I how did I get conned into fulfilling his random act of clairvoyance?


It was probably an accident since Saltalamacchia is the default answer. If the douchebag who ran this thing made the default a blank then this wouldn't have happened. Maybe there should just be a blind draw worth 487 points for who bats 7th and 8th.

(I hope I'm not the one who has him in both spots)

#19 rominer

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Posted 23 March 2011 - 11:28 AM

It was probably an accident since Saltalamacchia is the default answer. If the douchebag who ran this thing made the default a blank then this wouldn't have happened. Maybe there should just be a blind draw worth 487 points for who bats 7th and 8th.

(I hope I'm not the one who has him in both spots)


You didn't predict that I would call you a douche, asshole.

Saltalamacchia is the default answer because if people see his name 9 times in a row they might actually be able to spell it.

I probably should have listed Buchholz 30 times while I was at it.

#20 BigSlick

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Posted 23 March 2011 - 11:46 AM

You didn't predict that I would call you a douche, asshole.

Saltalamacchia is the default answer because if people see his name 9 times in a row they might actually be able to spell it.

I probably should have listed Buchholz 30 times while I was at it.


B-u-c-h-h-o-l-z, I got that one. I am probably never learning how to spell the starting catcher's last name. In fact, I'm not sure I can spell his first name properly. I do promise to learn it if he hits .280 with 22 HR's and 80 RBI though.

Edited by BigSlick, 23 March 2011 - 11:47 AM.





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