Royal Rooters: The biannual "Ortiz/Cooperstown" discussion - Royal Rooters

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

The biannual "Ortiz/Cooperstown" discussion
You won't participate, but you'll bitch about lack of baseball talk

#1 User is offline  
rominer 

  • Throwing a personal pity party, and everyone's invited.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 19,448
  • Joined: 11-November 04

Posted 26 May 2011 - 03:09 PM

The big guy recently hit Red Sox career home run #300 (and 301).

While he's not the David Ortiz of his peak years, rumors of his death have been greatly exaggerated. He had a rough start to last season, after an even rougher start to the 2009 season – but the reality is that since June of 2009, he has a .903 OPS, with 69 HR and 206 RBI. That is to say, he's basically a .900 OPS, 30 HR, 100 RBI guy. Still. Even though he's washed up.

Put aside any PED suspicion – honestly, who knows, and more importantly, who knows what double standard HOF voters are going to choose to apply. Everyone seems to love A-Rod now, for example. Excluding that, the biggest knock on Ortiz is that he got started late...his first big year was his first season in Boston, at age 27. If he'd been exactly a 30 HR guy starting with his age 24 season in Minnesota, his 300th Sox HR would also have been his 400th career home run, and the Hall of Fame might seem a bit more within reach.

He has the most career home runs and RBIs by a designated hitter. If he retired today, I think he might ultimately get a handful of votes, enough to stick around on the ballot for a few years. But still not a Hall of Famer. When your whole job is to be a slugger, it takes bigger totals than he has, regardless of his rank at a position that doesn't get a whole lot of HOF respect to begin with.

So the question: What does he have to do to be a legit (if borderline) HOF candidate, and does he have a realistic chance of doing it?
0

#2 User is offline  
coloradojack 

  • trust me
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 5,636
  • Joined: 16-December 03

Posted 26 May 2011 - 03:32 PM

I miss Imgran. Or was it Ingram? That guy delivered the goods everyday.
0

#3 User is offline  
rominer 

  • Throwing a personal pity party, and everyone's invited.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 19,448
  • Joined: 11-November 04

Posted 26 May 2011 - 03:36 PM

View Postcoloradojack, on 26 May 2011 - 03:32 PM, said:

I miss Imgran. Or was it Ingram? That guy delivered the goods everyday.

http://www.wallpaperbase.com/wallpapers/movie/trailerparkboys/trailer_park_boys_1.jpg
0

#4 User is offline  
BlackJack 

  • idiom cop
  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 2,330
  • Joined: 18-December 03

Posted 26 May 2011 - 03:44 PM

From baseballreference.com:
---
Hall Of Fame StatisticsPlayer rank in (·)

Black Ink Batting - 16 (141), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 95 (237), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 100 (152), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 32 (254), Average HOFer ≈ 50
---

I fully expected to find numbers that would say that he's pretty far off. I'm suprised that any of them indicated a likely HOFer. I was also surprised to see top 5 finishes in MVP voting from 2003-2007. I'd forgotten he got that many MVP votes. If he'd managed to win it in 2005 I think that would have helped his case significantly.

I don't think the PED thing is going to impact his chances much. My bet is that it fades somewhat as an issue by the time he'd eligible to get on the ballot.

His history of clutch hits, along with the 2 WS titles will be strong arguments for him. However, I think he needs to put up another 2-3 years of production that's at least what he did last year to really have a case.
0

#5 User is offline  
yazgoesbacklooksupitsgone 

  • I got it! I got it!
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 3,723
  • Joined: 11-December 03

Posted 26 May 2011 - 04:23 PM

I don't know if David Ortiz makes it.
If Edgar Martinez doesn't get in with a .312/.418/.515, I don't see Ortiz making it with his .282/.376/.543.

Yes, he'll finish with most HR by a DH, and most RBI, and he has 9 straight years of 20+ HR, and his halfway to making 10 straight, but I still don't see it.

Let's put it this way: the bulk of his numbers were put up as DH. If his offensive numbers were the exactly same and he played every day as 1B, would he be a candidate for the HOF? Not likely.
HIs numbers stack up semi closely with Tony Perez, and Perez was the most borderline HOF 1B I can remember. And Ortiz is still 500 RBI and 1100 hits behind Perez.
He's still got what, four years left? Unless he has some massive years, I don't see him making it on numbers alone. If you throw in the whole Big Papi 'jump on his back fellas' clutch hitter mystique, then its a maybe. But not on numbers alone.
0

#6 User is offline  
rominer 

  • Throwing a personal pity party, and everyone's invited.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 19,448
  • Joined: 11-November 04

Posted 26 May 2011 - 04:38 PM

View Postyazgoesbacklooksupitsgone, on 26 May 2011 - 04:23 PM, said:

He's still got what, four years left? Unless he has some massive years, I don't see him making it on numbers alone. If you throw in the whole Big Papi 'jump on his back fellas' clutch hitter mystique, then its a maybe. But not on numbers alone.


What do you think would be the magic numbers?

500 HR is neither very likely for Ortiz nor as automatic for the HOF as it once was – but I think if he reached that number, then it would be automatic for Ortiz, given the clutch hits, postseason success, and all that.

450 HR seems very plausible, though. That would put him in the top 35.

That's with some guys who I expect will remain ahead of him – Delgado (473), McGriff (493), and Sheffield (509) at least – still on the outside looking in at Cooperstown. But I don't think those three players combined have the mystique of Ortiz. Which isn't to say that 450 would get it done – but I think it would put him closer than any of those three.
0

#7 User is offline  
BigSlick 

  • Praying to flop a monster
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 13,901
  • Joined: 16-April 06

Posted 26 May 2011 - 05:09 PM

I love David Ortiz and want to have 10,000 of his babies, but I can't see him making it. I agree he'll probably end up with more than 450, but less than 500 HR's and probably around 1500 RBI, but I don't think it will be good enough. The PED issue kills him.
0

#8 User is offline  
rominer 

  • Throwing a personal pity party, and everyone's invited.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 19,448
  • Joined: 11-November 04

Posted 26 May 2011 - 06:11 PM

View PostBigSlick, on 26 May 2011 - 05:09 PM, said:

I love David Ortiz and want to have 10,000 of his babies, but I can't see him making it. I agree he'll probably end up with more than 450, but less than 500 HR's and probably around 1500 RBI, but I don't think it will be good enough. The PED issue kills him.


If we're talking about a David Ortiz with 450+ HR, then we're probably talking about a David Ortiz who isn't Hall of Fame eligible for another 8 years or more. It's possible – if way too soon to be saying likely – the the "PED issue" is a non-issue by that point.

If that's the case...is that the only thing standing in his way? I'm not sure fewer than 500 HR gets it done either way (although, it could, especially with another strong postseason between now and then). If Edgar Martinez brings some respectability to the position with election between now and then, maybe that changes things, too.

Maybe. Either way, I don't see how you can possibly survive having 10,000 of Ortiz's babies in addition to the 10,000 Adrian Gonzalez babies that you already committed to having.
0

#9 User is offline  
JMDurron 

  • Season Ticket Holder
  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 2,928
  • Joined: 06-July 04

Posted 27 May 2011 - 07:34 AM

Honestly, he probably shouldn't have much of a shot, because the threshold for a player who is literally nothing more than a hitter should be higher than it is for players who also play in the field. That said, the HOF threshold has been lowered quite a bit lately, now that the Jim Rices and Andre Dawsons are getting in.

There are three criteria, I think, to consider when debating whether or not a DH belongs in the HOF.

1) The counting stats

For a DH-only, the primary counting stats are going to be hits and HRs. Ortiz is at 359, and has an excellent shot at 400+ with just 2 more healthy seasons in pretty much any ballpark. That is actually a bit of an iffy thing given his body type, but I think it is reasonable. Given the strength of his peak and the fact that he got started late due to injury, as opposed to underperformance, I think Ortiz will get HOF-type credit if he breaks the 400 HR threshold. His 162 game AVG for HRs is 35, which becomes more impressive if he keeps up the pace for 3-4 years in the "post PED" era, which of course is nothing of the kind. It also helps that Ortiz has put up those numbers in a home ballpark that is harsh on LHH for HRs. For comparison's sake, Edgar Martinez only averaged 24 HRs per 162, despite playing mostly in the Kingdome, which I believe was helpful/neutral toward RHH HRs.

Ortiz has never hit well enough for average for cumulative hits to be a major point in his favor. Ortiz is actually several seasons away from 2000 hits, which is pretty weak for a DH-only HOF candidate. Edgar Martinez has a stronger case just on hits, with 2247, and I personally think he should not even sniff the HOF.

2) The rate stats

If one considers the "magic" numbers to be along the lines of 300/400/500 (a fair rough estimate, I think), then Edgar Martinez looks pretty good here, and Ortiz looks fairly one-dimensional. Given the era in which they played, Edgar Martinez gets no bonus from hitting those thresholds, and David Ortiz actually gets hurt a little by comparison, because I think it is inevitable that the HOF voters will compare Martinez and Ortiz during the voting process. If Martinez does not get in (he shouldn't), then Ortiz will have a larger hump to get over, partly due to this comparison.

3) THE INTANGIBLES

This is actually Ortiz's greatest shot. I actually think that David Ortiz might be Curt Schilling to Edgar Martinez's Kevin Brown. Roughly equivalent players, but one of them did it in big markets, in big moments, and got multiple rings out of it, while one was consistently good-to-excellent in a more obscure market/time zone with no postseason heroics. Ortiz also has the obscenely great peak from 2003-2007, averaging 42 HR, 128 RBIs, and a 302/402/612 line for 5 seasons while winning two World Series, including 1 after 86 years of waiting. I think that actually gets Ortiz into what I call "The Koufax Zone", where the spectacular nature of the peak overwhelms the voters in comparison to his cumulative numbers. David Ortiz is the only DH-only player, IMO, who has a legitimate shot at getting in the HOF due to these factors.

Ultimately, if Ortiz passes 400 HRs, I think the peak and the legend of "Big Papi" will get him into the HOF, provided that no new PED allegations come out. It's a Hall of FAME, and unless infamy trumps that fame (Mark McGuire), I think there is a strong case to be made that David Ortiz is so famous and just productive enough that he will get in...if he tacks on a couple more 2010-type seasons. The odd nature of his PED ties get him off the hook on that front.

Personally, I prefer a "small" HOF, so I'd actually say that he does not deserve to be in from a production standpoint. I don't care for the "but this shitty guy is in, so everyone better than him should be in!" argument, as past mistakes do not justify future ones. Ultimately, the only thing that makes me waver is the key word, FAME. David Ortiz is easily one of the most famous players and personalities of his generation in baseball, and when combined with his postseason heroics on the largest stage in the most-watched rivalry in sports, I wouldn't complain if he gets in. He crosses that "Jim Rice WTF Threshold" in my mind, since I have and will continue to think that was a mistake. Ortiz is a borderline case, but with a couple more years, I think he gets in, and I won't mind if that happens.
0

#10 User is offline  
Mike LansWho 

  • Model citizen, zero discipline
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 8,728
  • Joined: 15-January 04

Posted 27 May 2011 - 08:30 AM

Great analysis, JMD.

I just want to address the PED issue. I bet by the time Ortiz is eligible there will already 1 or 2 'steroids guys' inducted. I think that roadblock will soften incrementally every year, especially as younger writers become new voters. Also, as was mentioned earlier, David's name might not be as synonymous with PED's at that point as it is now (or was a year or two ago). That stigma will fade over time.

That been said, I agree that he'll have a tough time. It just won't be because of the PED thing. He's as borderline as it gets and the DH thing will really hurt him. Even still, as Yaz alluded to, put him at 1B for his entire career and he's still not a lock. I suppose that he might get some consideration if he finishes strong. The writers do like to see a good block of solid years. If he can rattle off a few more seasons comparable to his 2010 campaign, then he might end up having a chance. One has to assume at this point, though, that his numbers will decline going forward. He hasn't really shown signs of that yet this season. Time will tell.
0

#11 User is offline  
Sox Sweep Again 

  • Mountain zoned.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 8,848
  • Joined: 26-November 04

Posted 28 May 2011 - 02:16 AM

View PostJMDurron, on 27 May 2011 - 07:34 AM, said:

Honestly, he probably shouldn't have much of a shot, because the threshold for a player who is literally nothing more than a hitter should be higher than it is for players who also play in the field. That said, the HOF threshold has been lowered quite a bit lately, now that the Jim Rices and Andre Dawsons are getting in.

There are three criteria, I think, to consider when debating whether or not a DH belongs in the HOF.

1) The counting stats... [snip]

Ortiz is a borderline case, but with a couple more years, I think he gets in, and I won't mind if that happens. [/snip]



I read the whole assesment, JMD, and pretty much agree on all levels.

If Ortiz reaches 400 homers in the counting stats (or that plausible 450 Rominer mentioned) he has a decent shot simply based upon the post-season clutch allure.

It's a hall of "Fame", and Ortiz has earned that; 400 homers would kinda be like a seal of assured approval based upon past voting histories.

/IMHO
0

#12 User is offline  
rominer 

  • Throwing a personal pity party, and everyone's invited.
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 19,448
  • Joined: 11-November 04

Posted 03 June 2011 - 12:23 PM

View PostJMDurron, on 27 May 2011 - 07:34 AM, said:

2) The rate stats

If one considers the "magic" numbers to be along the lines of 300/400/500 (a fair rough estimate, I think), then Edgar Martinez looks pretty good here, and Ortiz looks fairly one-dimensional.


Yes, but I think this is somewhat exaggerated.

David Ortiz checks in short of all but the .500 SLG – but it's not like he's Dave Kingman. His lifetime BA/OBP are .282/.377, and with the Sox he's at .287/.386. The Sox years are what he'll be judged on. The time with the Twins adds a little to the counting stats, takes a little away from the rate stats, but ultimately those years probably contribute more to preventing him from being a lock than allowing him to be on the bubble.

At any rate, though – whether you take .282/.377 or .287/.386, that's not a one dimensional slugger. It's just not quite good enough to be among the elite. The average HOF batting line is .303/.376/.462/.838. Obviously that encompasses totally different eras, and players with different job descriptions and substantial contributions in the field. But Ortiz doesn't look bad at all in that light. He just looks like someone who might not have enough years left for those rate stats to get him the counting stats that he needs.
0

#13 User is offline  
JMDurron 

  • Season Ticket Holder
  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 2,928
  • Joined: 06-July 04

Posted 06 June 2011 - 07:44 AM

View Postrominer, on 03 June 2011 - 12:23 PM, said:

Yes, but I think this is somewhat exaggerated.

David Ortiz checks in short of all but the .500 SLG – but it's not like he's Dave Kingman. His lifetime BA/OBP are .282/.377, and with the Sox he's at .287/.386. The Sox years are what he'll be judged on. The time with the Twins adds a little to the counting stats, takes a little away from the rate stats, but ultimately those years probably contribute more to preventing him from being a lock than allowing him to be on the bubble.

At any rate, though – whether you take .282/.377 or .287/.386, that's not a one dimensional slugger. It's just not quite good enough to be among the elite. The average HOF batting line is .303/.376/.462/.838. Obviously that encompasses totally different eras, and players with different job descriptions and substantial contributions in the field. But Ortiz doesn't look bad at all in that light. He just looks like someone who might not have enough years left for those rate stats to get him the counting stats that he needs.


It's not about Ortiz looking "bad" in an absolute sense, it's about my assumption that Edgar Martinez will not be elected, and that other DH candidates will be compared to Martinez. If one goes by the rate stats, Ortiz does not compare favorably, which hurts him a bit. I think the "fame" part may trump that, but it's a mild knock on his chances.
0

#14 User is offline  
SoxAroundTheWorld 

  • 25 Man Roster
  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Rooters Supporter
  • Posts: 1,544
  • Joined: 25-April 06

Posted 07 June 2011 - 09:16 AM

No, I don't see Papi getting in. The Koufax Factor doesn't even do it for him, as even during his prime he was never considered the best hitter in the game (A-Rod, Pujols...). He falls short on rates and counts, as well. And wasn't even good enough to be put out there on defense at all. I love the guy, and he certainly deserves to be in the Sox' HOF - heck, even retire his number - but he's not going to Cooperstown.
0

#15 User is offline  
BamaBoSox 

  • AAA Pawtucket
  • PipPipPip
  • Group: Royal Rooters
  • Posts: 355
  • Joined: 27-August 07

Posted 11 June 2011 - 05:46 PM

View PostSoxAroundTheWorld, on 07 June 2011 - 09:16 AM, said:

No, I don't see Papi getting in. The Koufax Factor doesn't even do it for him, as even during his prime he was never considered the best hitter in the game (A-Rod, Pujols...). He falls short on rates and counts, as well. And wasn't even good enough to be put out there on defense at all. I love the guy, and he certainly deserves to be in the Sox' HOF - heck, even retire his number - but he's not going to Cooperstown.


As much as we've loved Papi, I don't envision him standing behind a podium in Cooperstown. I honestly don't know if he's deserving, either. He's squarely in the "good but not great" category -- and I believe the Hall of Fame should be home for only the greats of the game. That means Gary Carter can go phuck himself.

His status with one of baseball's most iconic franchises and the constant popularity both he and his team receive are pluses for him. Yet, the impossibility of joining the 500 HR club (364 currently) and the 3,000 hit club (1,673 as of today) works against him as #34 won't have the elite club status that many HOF'ers share.

He'll be on the outside looking in.

Statues outside the museum...
http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-ash1/v81/89/104/27428861/n27428861_34767567_7161.jpg?dl=1
0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users